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NOL
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ynnek1267
Master |
11-Aug-2013 08:42
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There may be 5 to 10% upside waiting for you in next week. But after next week? There may be right issue waiting for you.
Go to study nol cash position and senior notes raised and the order of new vessels. You will find NOL really has used the cash from senior notes to pay for their 3 year loss to prevent them raising right in last 3 years. Vessels will deliver completely in 2014, management will push price up and issue right soon within a year to balance their financial statement. As a long term investors, NOL shall not be in your watch list. Short term investors can play, good luck to you not get burnt. |
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ynnek1267
Master |
11-Aug-2013 08:33
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http://www.thesundayleader.lk/2013/08/11/maersk-makes-waves-with-massive-container-vessels/
When NOL announced to bought all these so called new fuel efficient vessel, the top 3 Maersk, msc and cma had owned it for years, NOL just played catch up game to compensate their mistake made long ago. Top 3 even order new generation giant vessels 18000teu at the same time when NOL ordered their "long over due fuel efficient" vessels and start to deliver at the same time. http://www.thesundayleader.lk/2013/08/11/maersk-makes-waves-with-massive-container-vessels/ So NOL is left behind continually. When top 3 make million profit, NOL can only Lose 100million. When top 3 break even like last 3 years, NOL lose billion of dollar. NOL investor can only expect economic boom again like 2005 to 2008 period. Then, top 3 earn billion profit and NOL earn hundred million profit. However, at this unstable economic condition and overcapacity of vessel, NOL can only lose money or break even. Yes, temasek may continue to support NOL to pump in money but temasek will request other to pump in to through right. Your share and share price will be diluted as well like previous chartered semi con till you find no matter how much NOL earn in the future, their pe value is always high due to heavy float of share in the market. Temasek support NOL just to save job in Singapore and Singapore PSA port. This is like SIA and changi airport strategic plan to maintain a industry competition. However, be realistic as a shareholder will you invest in this kind of lose making and heavy debt company?
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sgng123
Veteran |
11-Aug-2013 04:34
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when u got temasek as ur financial backer, unlimited source of funding cos all coming from ur CPF money lol. Can buy the most fuel efficient ships just need temasek to sign off as guarantor which all the banks in the world would gladly take due to the triple A credit of temasek lol. Now the fuel efficient gain by the new ships is showing it power cut down cost by a whopping 240M in a single quarter excluding the 10% drop in fuel price, how much more can it cut down in 3Q interested to know might knock the cost by another huge amount. lot of shipping companies dream of having a very strong backer like temasek, got the whole of Singapore citizens CPF as backing. Singaporean are cash rich due to the fact our CPF money got hundred of billions lock in and used by government to generate income, plus all the money lock in by PR contribution too lol. Sadly cash rich but could never touch it till 55 subject to minimum sum lock in for special account. |
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beginners
Senior |
10-Aug-2013 23:06
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Moreover NOL building already sold to frangrance. What other assets do they still have? Sold away their ships? | ||||
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ynnek1267
Master |
10-Aug-2013 22:27
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A company lose 3 year straight. Raise billion of dollars notes for new vessels, partially pay to losses.
What is next? Right issue and interest. |
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sgng123
Veteran |
10-Aug-2013 21:50
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NOL in losses for almost 3 years all due to Europe recession which affects all regions even though Europe do not play a big role in driving growth but European banks drive the money loan globally. In fact world economy should all be in deep recession, STI should be 2000 only if not for the QE money printing effort by Fed Reserve. If QE ended with no recovery in economy activities, prepare for heavy blood bath in stock market, explain why stock markets all get hit when fed reserve indicate it going to wind down money printing in 2H 2014. US central bank QE is what separate us from a very deep economy downturn. Reason why we all interest in NOL, cos ship result is all tied to global economy. When US/Europe economy recovered, ship share price would surge in short time to keep pace with current STI level. NOL performance is trade barometer for export focus Singapore economy, currently stock market/economy distorted due to QE. Ship doing cost cutting and slot cost resetting would place it in very competitive position to gain plump profit when US/Europe recovered which according to economist should be 2014. Not to mention our very smart elitist temasek had dumped in US $4B for fleet renewal and another US$1.5B bank loan to invest in long term ship prospect, follow the government most likely would earn money but need to time it right. IF timed correctly can gain 50% to 200% in return in short time but need very good stock judgment. | ||||
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beginners
Senior |
10-Aug-2013 16:04
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Hi all bros & expert here. Not vested yet. One thing I don't understand is NOL has been in lost for years. But still alot of ppl still interested in this counter? Is there any mean or hidden reason? Thks. | ||||
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sgng123
Veteran |
10-Aug-2013 15:14
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Yup hopefully house traders who hedge on ship would cover their sell position and buy back shares since the downside tail risk mostly reduced due to better cost saving this year. But not going to go in till house traders had clear their position, still need real investors to buy into ship , not some house traders who trying to buy low sell high hedging activities. | ||||
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Peter_Pan
Supreme |
10-Aug-2013 14:57
Yells: "did you order dunkin' donuts" |
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Next week hopefully should see a surge in volume!
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sgng123
Veteran |
09-Aug-2013 11:18
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China trade data are out, july export rises 5.1% yoy beating expectation 2% and import up 10% crushing expectation of 1%. Inflation remained steady at 2.7%. World factory resumed operation after slowing down in 1H 13, might indicate pick up in demand for manufacturing good in coming months as more raw materials are imported to produce goods. Soon ship would be even more cost competitive than the big players due to investment in very fuel efficient new ships being delivered. 19 out of 34 being delivered up to june with 5 in second half and 10 in 2014, 19 ships already lowered operating cost from ~2500(2012 fiscal report ) to below 2300 ( reverse calculation done by me for 2Q13) that is like chopping 200 per FEU in a matter of 6 months not to mention more cost savings are still in the way due to chartered ship retiring this year and oil price heading lower this year. All pointed to a very significant lowering of operating cost, mine personal view is it would hit 2200 by end of year or even lower if drastic cut is being implement. this meant ship can survive in the most extreme global condition ( Great Financial Recess, average rate = 2250). When economy recovered ( hopefully next year ), rate would recover to normal and this would boost ship earning. | ||||
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CSH123
Member |
09-Aug-2013 10:10
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yup thank you for all the inputs
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Blastoff
Elite |
09-Aug-2013 09:41
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Thanks for your constant updates & views. :)
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sgng123
Veteran |
08-Aug-2013 14:58
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Let see how ship performed next Monday, if BB go in then it time to punt again. From previous result for ship, when Big Europe GRI got through normally every region rate also move together resulting in improving average freight rate for ship. In April 2012 when Europe 750 GRI got thorough NOL average freight rate jumped from 2420 to 2650 a 200 FEU improvement. Hope this time round the increase would be bigger as the big GRI 900 happen in peak season period. | ||||
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Rosesyrup
Veteran |
08-Aug-2013 13:59
Yells: "Get your own opinion, don't follow blindly." |
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Company=> result for the holding company ONLY Group=> Company + Result from all subsidiaries (> =50% stakes) Anyway, in my personal opinion, time is almost ripe to enter NOL.
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sgng123
Veteran |
08-Aug-2013 10:20
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Don bother with data whether group or company, in the end they just take the lesser which is the group value. The current shipping situation is a repeat of Apr 2012 where similar big GRI of 750 - 900 get through and everyone maintain carrier discipline and keep monthly GRI going. In 2012 the GRI frenzy keep going till Sep with the peak at Jul when the SCFI is at 1500, Europe rate 3800 and transpacific at 2800. As expected according to report, capacity taken out of Europe and demand/supply balanced out, Sep GRI coming on both Europe / Transpacific most likely 500/ 400. If 2H rate recovery follow 2012 pattern, SCFI might hit another record high and Europe/Transpacific might see record high broken again. All these is all about carriers discipline to keep rate high and demand/supply balance, the real demand had not come yet most likely next year when US / Europe recovers. If real demand come back, prepare for very fat reward for long time ship investors due to very competitive cost structure achieved in trough years, 800 mil yearly profit is not a dream any more lol. | ||||
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alexsmith
Member |
07-Aug-2013 23:41
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If you are looking at the balance sheet, you would see there are two columns over there. One column contains the breakdown for " Group" and the other one for " Company" ? What is the difference between " Group" and " Company" ? If somebody knows, please elaborate more. Tq. |
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sgng123
Veteran |
07-Aug-2013 23:34
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Kim Eng expected NOL to post loss of 160M in 2Q, most likely they had to upgrade stock after today better result. | ||||
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sgng123
Veteran |
07-Aug-2013 22:49
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logistic net earning for 2Q is 10M take that out of equation, slot cost = 2315- ( 27/ 0.7) =2276. Not much difference I leave out logistic cos the contribution from it is too small compare to the huge profit/loss posed by liners. Logistic contribution to NOL is a joke cannot make enough to pay the tax for the whole group, might as well sell away the port/terminal to gather cash. Cash is king and having lot of it is good for company. Those port and terminals owned by APL can fetched 850M - 1Billion according to some article I saw earlier in Llord. slot cost before expense for liner might go down to 2200 in 3Q due to more charters retired, might be even lower if oil dropped to US100. | ||||
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Hawkeye
Veteran |
07-Aug-2013 22:48
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NOL is the most competitive and " profitable" shipping line operating out of Asia Pacific. So improvement in 2Q2013 results shows improvement in Shipping out of Asia Pacific recovery is Imminent. Wahahahahahahah !!!! Haaahahahahahah!!!!!
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pseudo
Member |
07-Aug-2013 22:10
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even if calculate EBITDA still wrong... there is no 37M. Liner only 24M. shouldnt include logistic result in picture.
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