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SPC
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chinkiasu
Master |
26-Mar-2007 13:56
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i absolutely agree with "The trend in global markets is leaning towards a gradual depreciation of the US Dollar and the rapid development of China. As such energy stocks will remain high and should rebound after a correction. It will become the most defensive type of stock in the future." Now that we are in agreement... lets chiong...!!!!!! |
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iPunter
Supreme |
26-Mar-2007 09:21
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nickyng... yeaaahh... That's the right spirit to have for playing stocks... Have fun... and little stress... :) |
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nickyng
Supreme |
26-Mar-2007 09:15
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well...up or down..as long as the stock trading band is wide...contra or short can still make $$$ :D ok...enought craps....SHORT or CONTRA today? hee... |
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Livermore
Master |
26-Mar-2007 06:35
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Extract from Professor Chan Yan Chong in the 300 issue of Shares Investment. He writes.
The trend in global markets is leaning towards a gradual depreciation of the US Dollar and the rapid development of China. As such energy stocks will remain high and should rebound after a correction. It will become the most defensive type of stock in the future.
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Livermore
Master |
26-Mar-2007 06:25
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I also read on the internet once that gasoline price tends to follow inline with crude oil price's increase and decrease |
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Livermore
Master |
26-Mar-2007 06:21
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Hi Chinkiasu, Hey thanks for the article:). Actually I aware of a shortage in refining capacity. It takes 3-4 years to build a new refinery. So I am looking at year 2009-2010 to see the impact on oil product prices when new refineries come online. Then there is also alternative fuel. Bush already emphasised the use of ethanol. But I am thinking that even though more refineries come online, demand is also going to increase. Well let's see in 3-4 years. For now there is no worry:) |
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chinkiasu
Master |
25-Mar-2007 23:55
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My dear Livermore, sir... the following is an extract from the Washington Post:Oil-refinery capacityTODAY'S EDITORIAL |
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Livermore
Master |
25-Mar-2007 10:04
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Business Times 24 March 2007 - Shell and Exxon move ahead with petrochem projects. Shell yetserday said it has just begun construction proper of its estimated US$3 billion petrochemical projects here. Exxon Mobil announced that it had completed the expansion of its US$2 billion cracker. Some 1400 workers are employed on constructing Shells' project coded named "Houdini" At its peak in 2008- 2009, "Houdini" will require 6000 and 8000 workers. Exxon Mobil is expected to make its final investment decision for its Singapore Parallel Train (SPT) project around the middle of the year. Demand for chemicals is growing to about 2-3% faster than world gross domestic products - and growth is particularly strong in this region. "Over the next 10 years, some 60% of the world's petrochemical growth will occur in Asia and China alone will account for one -third of that growth,"Sherman Glass, Exxon Mobil Chemical's senior vice -president said. "Asia could account for 50% of global demand for commodity chemicals and China alone will account for 25% of global demand." he said |
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Livermore
Master |
25-Mar-2007 07:47
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Back in around 2002, crude oil price was at a very low price. I cannot remember the exact price. Maybe about US$20 a barrel. Refineries were not making much money. But times have changed when crude oil price have risen to present levels. |
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Livermore
Master |
25-Mar-2007 07:40
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Hurrican Katrina only affected the US. The US refineries do not constitute the world refining capacity. But that it not the main point. As it was reported in the business times quite some time ago, during that time, as crude oil price increased, gasoline price increased by 1.5 - 2 times. |
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chinkiasu
Master |
25-Mar-2007 07:04
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Hurricane Katrina knocked out of action a number of refineries in the area reducing overall world refinery capacity. |
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Livermore
Master |
25-Mar-2007 00:31
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If refineries do not make money when crude oil price goes up, then how is it refineries were enjoying big profits in 2005 when Hurrican Katrina caused crude oil price to shoot up to US$75 a barrel? |
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chinkiasu
Master |
24-Mar-2007 20:57
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dear Idesa168 & Shplayer, I understand from a friend, who has a some knowledge of refining business, that the refining margins earned are not neccessary in cash but rather in proportions of distillates produced.. i.e the crude oil producer does not pay oil refinery $$ but give them distillates which are then sold by the refinery... therefore correlation refinery performance is more direct with crude prices... however, perhaps some oil man forumner may wish to clarify this..... |
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iPunter
Supreme |
24-Mar-2007 17:59
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Yongjiu... You're welcome... O, such friendly post, I must say!... :) |
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shplayer
Elite |
24-Mar-2007 10:38
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idesa168, That is exactly my analogy. SPC's performance should be determined by refining margins. But, having monitored this counter since 2004, sad to say, the market does not rationalise SPC's performance by refining margins.....but more closely correlated by crude prices. |
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idesa168
Elite |
24-Mar-2007 02:26
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SPC core biz is refinery. And refinery raw material is crude oil. How can SPC benefit if the crude oil rises? I have doubt the share price will appreciate in the coming week. Infact it should be down if not because of the fat divy that is supporting the share price. My guess is that SPC will trade within a tight range, sideway. Nicky won't benefit from the sideway movement! Take care Nicky, try shorting the banking stock lah, I see opportunity. |
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YongJiu
Veteran |
23-Mar-2007 23:33
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ipunter, agree we must know how to exit promptly when we are wrong!!!! thnx for putting money into our pocket =) |
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lookcc
Master |
23-Mar-2007 22:25
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won't short spc coming monday, crude oil up from below 61 to 62 (spc px follows crude...don't know why), iran situation wud cause crude px to go up, spc wud cross resistance point of 4.64 on monday.....next resttnc level is 5.00....nicky, take care. |
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chinkiasu
Master |
23-Mar-2007 17:25
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alamak, Nicky... you have nine lives...!! close at 4.64... testing current ceiling... next week see it soar...? you win some, today you are lucky to lose some...what if had gone up like CAO today? |
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chinkiasu
Master |
23-Mar-2007 17:24
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alamak, Nicky... you have nine lives...!! close at 4.64... testing current ceiling... next week see it soar...? you win some, today you are lucky to lose some...what if had gone up like CAO today? |
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