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SPC
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idesa168
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29-Apr-2007 02:59
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Geojam, I am sure Victorian is a gentleman, he will honor his words. A drink would not make much of a damage to his pocket! We are dealing with thousands of dollars and some even put the coffin $$ to buy oil! Why there is nobody wanting to bet on the fundamental of the company as to Q2 earning? Q1 was 21 cents. It will be interesting to see threads displaying how each individual derive their projection. It will be an eye opener. |
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jkbk007
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28-Apr-2007 19:58
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Rachel, My PERSONAL OPINION is that the impact is positive as this translate to increasing refining margin, better investor sentiments. SPC should trend upward. Historical chart shows that SPC correlates with crude price. Correlation is estimated at 0.44. In actual case RM is not directly correlated to crude price probably because SPC does not produce much crude. But this will be increased with Oyong field oil production in Q3. It seems that US refineries are not able to meet gasoline demand and this is mostly likely to increase RM for gasoline. Overall I am expecting another great Q2 result for SPC and will be holding on to my SPC shares. However I am also ready to move out if necessary. I am vested in SPC at 4.64 to 5.05 before xD and I am contemplating on investing my xD for another lot. |
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rachel
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28-Apr-2007 18:40
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Was wondering if there is any indirect impact on SPC ..... Oil Prices Settle Above $66 a Barrel By JOHN WILEN AP Business Writer Latest News Exxon Mobil 1Q Profit Up 10 Percent Buy AP Photo Reprints NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices pushed above $66 a barrel Friday after Saudi Arabia announced the arrests of 172 Islamic militants, some of whom planned to attack oil fields. Traders didn't initially react to the news, analysts said. But then they started thinking. "The concern is that we know al-Qaida's number one priority is to hit an oil field in Saudi Arabia," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. "They're just not going to quit." Light, sweet crude for June delivery rose sharply after vacillating between gains and losses this morning. It settled up $1.40 at $66.46 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude settled 76 cents higher at $68.41 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London. Gasoline futures settled up 7.1 cents on the Nymex at $2.3613 after falling earlier. Some of the arrested militants had planned to use airplanes to attack Saudi oil fields, an Interior Ministry spokesman said Friday. Other attacks were planned on public figures and refineries. "The market really didn't respond to (the Saudi arrests)," for the first half hour after the news was reported, said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates in Galena, Ill. "The initial response almost looked a little bearish." While news of the arrests was contributing to the afternoon rally, Ritterbusch thinks traders remain more focused on Wednesday's Energy Department inventory report. Prices rallied Wednesday after an Energy Department report showed a large, unexpected drop in U.S. gasoline stockpiles of 2.8 million barrels last week - when analysts had expected a gain of 200,000 barrels. The report also said U.S. refinery use declined 2.6 percentage points to 87.8 percent of capacity. "Refinery capacity this last week was very disappointing," said James Cordier, president of Liberty Trading Group in Tampa, Fla. "The gasoline inventory's very scary." Continuing refinery problems - including a brief fire at Marathon Oil Corp.'s Garyville, La., refinery on Thursday and reports of temporary shutdowns or delayed starts at other facilities - is contributing to the supply concerns. With the start of the summer driving season about a month away, some analysts wonder whether gasoline supplies will be adequate to meet demand. "Concerns about U.S. gasoline supply are underpinning the crude oil futures market," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with Purvin & Gertz in Singapore. "It seems U.S. refineries have had a lot of bad luck recently. And U.S. gasoline inventories are at a historic low. It's going to be a tight situation." But the Commerce Department's report this morning that economic growth slowed to 1.3 percent in the first quarter has spooked some traders, who worry tepid growth means consumers will use less fuel. "(That was) a very weak economic number this morning," Cordier said. And a possible improvement in the tense situation in Iran also gave the market a reason to depress prices. Iran's top nuclear negotiator said talks with a senior European Union official had brought them closer to a united view of how to break a deadlock over a U.N. Security Council demand that Tehran freeze its uranium enrichment program. The upbeat comments by Ali Larijani boosted hopes that he and Javier Solana, the European Union's top foreign policy official, had chipped away at differences over enrichment - a potential pathway to nuclear arms - in two days of talks. "The statement took some heat out of the market," said Vienna's PVM Oil Associates. "Furthermore, healthy U.S. crude inventories ... (were) probably another easing factor." "If that actually develops with diplomacy and so on, there's about $4 to $6 of geopolitical premium built into (the price of)crude oil right now," Cordier said. In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures settled 2.44 cents higher at $1.9135 a gallon, while natural gas prices rose 22.9 cents to settle at $7.831 per 1,000 cubic feet. --- http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/O/OIL_PRICES?SITE=ASIAONE&SECTION=BUSINESS&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2007-04-27-15-58-29 |
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onefour02
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28-Apr-2007 16:49
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what was the bet and what is in the next bet? sorry i'm new here. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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geojam
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28-Apr-2007 16:24
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Hi Victorian You are truly a gentleman.Hope Chinkiasu enjoy his drink. |
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Livermore
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28-Apr-2007 14:08
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Frankly I don't believe in target price | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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jackjames
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28-Apr-2007 13:34
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gentleman, let's just hold it until 5.80 ! yahooooo! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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jsphnteo
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28-Apr-2007 11:45
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Someone is asking abt target price for SPC... Here it goes....
DJ MARKET TALK: SPC +2.0%; S$5.80 Target, Buy - Merrill Lynch
0131 GMT [Dow Jones] SPC (S99.SG) +2.0% at S$5.10 on moderate volume after posting 65% on year rise in 1Q07 net profit to S$112 million, significantly above Merrill Lynch's expectations; stock hasn't breached S$5.10 since August 2006. Brokerage has price objective of S$5.80/share given potential success in its exploration acreage; analyst Adrian Loh says in note "key risk to the company achieving our price objective is failure to find oil or gas in any of the exploration wells it is intending to drill this year;" keeps at Buy, says 1Q07 net profit equates to 38% of its initial FY07 forecast. (JEM) Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 150; MarketTalk@dowjones.com |
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geojam
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27-Apr-2007 23:14
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Chinkiasu Good for u that u won the bet.U probably will not hear from Victorian again as he lost the bet OR he will tell u something else to move the goal post.Such is life,unfortunately. But i think Victorian will honour his words. btw,i can afford a bigger coffin as i went to grab more lots at 5.05 b4 the ex.Was thinking of selling it today at 4.80,although i loss 25 cents but the divvy is 35 cents,but change my mind and just hold on to it. |
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jkbk007
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27-Apr-2007 21:30
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To all vested SPC players, Here is some facts I have found 1) SPC key business is refining and gets most of the crude from middle east. 2) Reducing global refining capacity has contributed to healthy refining margins. 3) SPC gets most of crude supply from Middle East. 4) There is correlation to SPC price to STI index and crude price. With crude price having a stronger correlation. 5) SPC refineries are in Singapore. As you all know, Singapore is safe and free from most environmental disaster. 6) Current global demand for oil products remains strong. |
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chinkiasu
Master |
27-Apr-2007 21:05
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ai Geojam... !! we got our coffin money intact and can buy bigger coffin some more..... and VICTORIAN...!!!! Looks like you lost the bet.... |
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KiLrOy
Master |
27-Apr-2007 19:39
Yells: "I buy only what I can see." |
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Looks like I didnt miss anything today looking at the time and sale? Balanced buying and selling. Holding steadfast at 4.80. I was thinking of selling my remaining lots today but so happened I lost my mobile phone this morning so I have to visit Singtel Comcenter to get a new SIM card and thereafter met some friends and chit chatted the whole avo. Didnt have time to do any trade. None the less, I believe there is a reason for me to lost my mobile phone (to prevent me from selling SPC) so I'll just go with the flow. :p Ah alas, I can resume with charting on SPC. |
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shplayer
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27-Apr-2007 15:56
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meilian, Good analysis. However, the problem with SPC is that it is difficult to predict the refining margins (RM). If you track their performance Q on Q, you will realise that the RM can fluctuate from about 3.00 to 7.00. Furthermore, there does not seem to be any correlation between RM and crude price. Also, high crude prices does not necessarily mean a better profit for that Q. Take for example 3Q06, when crude dropped rapidly from their highs of about USD78.00/bbl. SPC had to take a writedown of about $71m of unrealisable value to their inventory. Just my personnal view and comment ....but do keep up the good work and always appreciate quality contributions from forumers. |
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shplayer
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27-Apr-2007 15:47
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Announcement in SGX today. This seems to indicate the Jeruk field may not be commercially viable.....just reading between the lines. http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_31A945134B6AFFEF482572CA0017AC68/$file/SAMPANGUPDATEFINAL.pdf?openelement |
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idesa168
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27-Apr-2007 12:12
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Ray, the bus just left for divvy last evening! The price had dropped to reflect the XD today already...lol | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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sharefreak
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27-Apr-2007 12:01
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Its gone XD today, Ray. If you are looking to pocket the div, the last boat left yesterday at 5pm. As to whether its the right time to go in now, well, you have to make a call yourself. I'm vested at the low $4+. In my opinion, this counter is for long term holding. If you're looking to make quick bucks, you may be better off somewhere else. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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ray.chan
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27-Apr-2007 11:42
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SPC is giving out 0.15c n 0.2c for dividen. Is it a good price to buy in now or wait awhile. Maybe after dividen the price may drop further. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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onefour02
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27-Apr-2007 11:32
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red1721
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27-Apr-2007 10:39
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yup, a very good sign indeed...I'm calling a buy to this counter too... | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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jkbk007
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27-Apr-2007 10:38
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Congratulations to all people who held steadfast to SPC! I see the drop of less than 35cents as a positive endorsement that the sentiments for SPC is positive. Pretty soon people will forget about the XD and look at 2007 earnings for SPC. |
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