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bsiong
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01-Dec-2010 18:48
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Marc Faber: Gold bull market intact December 01 2010 10:50 GMTLONDON (Commodity Online): Marc Faber, publisher of the famed Gloom Boom Doom Report says despite the boom in gold prices, there is a likelihood that the yellow metal may fall to $1200 levels. But Faber insists that the gold bull market is solid and continues to be intact. Faber, whose monthly outlook on commodities, equity markets, currencies, bonds and the emerging markets, is always respected by traders and the global business community says gold and silver are the hottest among commodities and people will continue to invest in them. Faber says he continues to buy gold ounces, but points out that a correction to $1200 would not surprise him. According to Faber, equity markets are going strong globally because people have nowhere to put their money. He said once bond yields start to rise, all of those people who piled into bonds will redeploy funds into equities. // |
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bsiong
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01-Dec-2010 12:07
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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European contagion concerns boosting gold despite Dollar gains vs. Euro Published on: December 01 2010 04:40 GMTBy Allen Sykora of Kitco News (Kitco News) - European sovereign-debt issues remain front and center stage, enabling gold prices to soar Wednesday even in the face of strength in the U.S. dollar. The metal hit a record high in euro terms and also is sharply stronger in dollar terms. European and Irish officials have already agreed to a bailout plan for Ireland, but investors are seeking safe havens anyway on worries that a debt crisis on the continent will soon engulf other European nations. “Spain, Portugal and Italy are now becoming a further concern for U.S. and global investors,” said Dave Meger, director of metals trading with Vision Financial Markets. “Any type of European contagion is going to be viewed as negative for the overall markets, which is why equities are down today. Investors are seeking safe-haven assets such as gold and the dollar.” Gold’s strength was kick-started when the metal rose in euro terms, said Afshin Nabavi, head of trading with MKS Finance. Gold hit a record high of 1,068 euros, he said. Meanwhile, at 10:51 a.m. EST, February gold futures were $17.30 higher, or up 1.27%, to $1,384.80 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The $1,387.80 high is the strongest level since Nov. 12. The euro has fallen as far as $1.2969, its weakest level since Sept. 14. Gold’s tendency over the last decade was to move inversely to the dollar. When the greenback fell, traders tended to buy gold as a hedge, plus a softer dollar boosts all commodities by making them less expensive in other currencies. Conversely, gold tended to fall when the greenback flexed its muscles. However, the phenomenon has returned from spring and early summer, when worries about Greece’s debt and euro weakness resulted in safe-haven flows into both gold and the dollar at the same time. “As the euro is melting down, gold is higher,” said Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist with FOREX.com, who also tracks gold. Standard Bank analyst Walter de Wet noted that on average, commodities fell more on euro weakness than they rallied on euro strength in the April-July period. The exception was gold. “Gold increased on euro weakness, conforming gold’s status as a hedge against credit risk,” de Wet said. “We believe gold is set to do so again.” In the recent past, strength in the dollar had limited the upside in gold, said a research note from Barclays Capital. “But with USD (the dollar) and gold already showing rising correlation in the past week, we can expect continued macroeconomic fears to be a positive for gold,” Barclays said. Technically, Dolan said, the $1,385 area is a key chart resistance level for spot gold. “On one of the chart patterns we’re looking at, there is potential for developing a head-and-shoulders top,” he said. “If it (moves) above $1,385, it violates that pattern and suggests that new highs are going to be made.” If gold closes the day above $1,387-$1,388 area, then “$1,400 will be in the cards,” Nabavi said. Markets Fretting That European Debt Issues To Spread, Intensify There are worries about European debt problems getting worse, observers said. “As the bailout package went through for Ireland, it’s bringing into the forefront that there are concerns with other major countries, such as Portugal, Spain and Italy,” Meger said. Yields on these bonds are soaring, meaning investors want a premium to take on the risk of holding them. The yield spread for 10-year Spanish debt, over comparable German bonds, has climbed to more than three full percentage points, the highest since the launch of the euro in 1999. Portugal’s central bank issued a report Tuesday warning that the risk to its banks would become “unbearable if political measures to consolidate public finances are not implemented in a credible and sustained way.” Analysts are also citing concerns about Belgium, which Dennis Gartman, publisher of The Gartman Letter, addressed at length in his daily report. Belgium’s problems are similar to those of other nations the markets have worried about, with its debt as a percentage of gross domestic product at 100%, he said. Furthermore, regional political, philosophical and religious differences may make it hard for any government to deal with the issue, Gartman said.Following a bond auction, the Belgium 10-year spread to German government bonds widened 10 basis points to 125 basis points, reported currency analysts with Brown Brothers Harriman. BBH analysts said European officials “have failed to get ahead of the curve of market expectations” with pre-emptive funding for Portugal, if not Spain. “Perhaps the biggest problem is lack of appreciation of the significance of confidence in the functioning of the modern credit economy,” BBH said. “European officials have squandered this confidence and like toothpaste coming out of a tube, it is difficult to put in back in.” Dolan suggested some technical support for the euro may emerge around $1.29. “Potentially, we could see some stabilization in the short term,” he said. “But ultimately, I think we’re going back to the low $1.20s and very likely next year even lower.” By Allen Sykora of Kitco News |
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bsiong
Supreme |
01-Dec-2010 11:19
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Gold off 2-week high, bullion in euro hits record
SINGAPORE, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Gold slipped on Wednesday as speculators booked profits after prices rose to their highest in more than two weeks the previous day, while bullion priced in euro hit record as worries about the debt crisis in Europe lingered. FUNDAMENTALS * Spot gold eased 68 cents to $1,384.26 an ounce by 0032 GMT after rising as high as $1,389.75 on Tuesday -- its strongest since Nov. 12. Bullion was still below a lifetime high around $1,424 struck in early November. * U.S. gold futures hardly moved at $1,386 an ounce. * The euro suffered yet another setback in early Asia on Wednesday after Standard & Poor's threatened to cut the credit ratings of Portugal, inflaming a market already rocked by worries about Europe's debt crisis. ////FYI |
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bsiong
Supreme |
01-Dec-2010 11:07
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Closing Gold & Silver Market Report – 11/30/2010November 30, 2010At 4PM (CT) the APMEX precious metal prices were:
COMMENTARY: Although precious metal prices backed off the day’s highs, solid gains were posted. In contrast, global stocks fell to their lowest level in almost two months. Lets not forget that the North and South Korean tensions are still fresh, while the fear of the European debt problem has intensified. Gold and precious metals are assuming their rightful place, as a hedge against monetary uncertainty. Gold is most often viewed as a hedge against inflation, but in today’s environment, it also provides a safe haven for currency fluctuations. Gold spot price was up $20.00 – Silver price up 96 cents – Platinum spot price up $17.90 – Palladium price up $3.90 |
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bsiong
Supreme |
01-Dec-2010 00:56
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Gold buying: Race between Indian, Chinese households Published on: November 30 2010 07:00 GMTBy Adrian Ash Surgding demand from China, the world's second-largest gold buyer, is changing seasonal patterns in gold price trends for investors everywhere. At this current pace, private Chinese demand may overtake India's by 2014 (if not sooner), giving the world's two most populous nations two ounces of gold in every five sold worldwide that year. But already, this further eastwards shift is showing in global Gold Prices. Coinciding with the post-harvest wedding and festival season, Indian demand typically peaks with Diwali (the Hindu "festival of lights") in early November. Chinese households, on the other hand, ramp up their gold buying around Chinese New Year (starting on Feb. 3rd in 2011) – and as the hump in global demand is moving from Diwali to Xīn Nián, so too is the annual peak in the global Gold Price. New Delhi began liberalizing Indian Gold Prices and retail sales in 1990, after imposing strict controls (and only expanding a thriving black market, of course) in 1968. During the global bear market in gold which then continued to 2001, average Dollar prices between Sept. and Nov. bucked that trend, rising even as the underlying direction was down.Beijing then began liberalizing its domestic gold market a decade ago, first with the end of jewellery price controls in 2002, and then with the launch of Shanghai's bullion-trading exchange in 2005. As our table shows, Diwali has since lagged the average quarterly gain during this current bull market, whereas the following three months, in contrast – the period leading up to and including China's New Year and Lantern Day festivals a fortnight later – have strongly outperformed, and by a widening margin as liberalization has broadened. It's hard to overstate the role played by Chinese households in gold's current bull market. Yes, Indian households remain the world's No.1 gold buyers for now, as they have been since the mid-20th century and before. But nearly 16% of global gold demand went to Chinese households between July and October this year, rising from the previous three-year total of 14%. And as the stats' table above shows, Chinese consumers are already making a big impact on global Gold Prices. Put another way, Chinese savers have bought almost half as much gold since the global financial crisis began in mid-2007 as all investors living in the developed West. Yes, there's more of them, but China's GDP per head is barely one-tenth the size on average. More critically, private Chinese consumers bought as much gold in the last two-and-a-half-years as the People's Bank of China owns in total. Indeed, "The PBoC is encouraging an increase in the gold reserves of the people," as UBS metals strategist Dr.Edel Tully said at the LBMA's Bullion Market Seminar last Thursday. Which, for that communist dictatorship, is a nice way to describe the blurring of public with private wealth. The state gets to hoard the ultimate "anti-Dollar" without declaring its hand. It also gives consumer spending an outlet that doesn't impact the cost of living – an inflationary safety valve, if you like – even as deposit interest rates are held 2% and more below the rate of inflation.This "nation-state" gold buying cuts both ways too, with dips in the gold price (or threats of Yuan revaluation or higher interest rates, which amount to the same thing) repeatedly met with neatly-timed leaks and rumors of the PBoC's gold-buying intentions. As we told CNBC last week, there's now an awful of household wealth denominated in gold; Beijing has been actively encouraging that shift since deregulation began a decade ago. And since "To get rich is glorious" (as then-premier Deng Xiaoping announced in 1980), then being seen to help defend the people's wealth is equally smart for the politburo. (The Reserve Bank of India made the same show last year, buying 200 tonnes of IMF gold straight after a sharp drop in private Indian gold buying.) Yes, both Indian and Chinese households are "forced" buyers during their respective gold-buying festivals, when tradition, religious (or quasi-religious) associations and social pressures conspire towards a peak in demand. But where Asia's deep love for physical gold used to look unsophisticated, barbarous even, to Western advisors and analysts, it's increasingly coming to signal instead the transfer of real wealth from West to East – and a transfer further east too, as China gains on India as the world's No.1 buyer. Both Indian and Chinese households are also switching to more efficient forms of gold investment too, continuing to accumulate jewelry but choosing coins and Gold Bars for a growing chunk of their holdings. That might suggest a growing "speculative" edge, inviting fears of mass liquidation in future. But India's private gold market has long been two-way, with jewelers buying back metal (albeit it on much wider margins) as families realize gains or mobilize the cash-value of gold for other investments. That's rarely meant a net outflow of gold, however (India was a net exporter of gold for the first time since the Great Depression in the first-quarter of '09). And if you want to defend your savings as economic power shifts to the East, it might make sense to buy a little of what the East is increasingly using to store its fast-growing wealth. |
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bsiong
Supreme |
01-Dec-2010 00:52
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Gold edges up on persisting Europe worries Published on: November 30, 2010 at 11:35SINGAPORE (Commodity Online) : Gold prices extended gains in Asia, despite a strong dollar, after reports suggested Ireland rescue package failed to stem crisis in Europe. Spot gold was seen trading at $ 1368.45 a barrel at 12.30 p.m Singapore time while February-delivery contract was at $1,368.40 an ounce on the Comex in New York. Analysts said the precious yellow metal also took advantage of reports suggested that Iberian nations also required bailout packs to deal with emerging crisis there. Silver for immediate delivery climbed 0.4 percent to $27.26 an ounce, set for a fourth monthly advance. The metal has risen 61 percent this year, reaching $29.36 an ounce on Nov. 9, the highest price since 1980. Meanwhile, the euro fell toward a two-month low against the dollar, while Spanish and Portuguese bonds dropped on speculation that Ireland’s 85 billion-euro bailout would not halt the financial contagion. Gold priced in euros reached a record in June when Greece sought a bailout. The IMF on Monday said it sold 19.5 metric tons of gold in October to shore up its finances. The sale cut the Washington-based lender’s holdings at the end of the month to 2,846.7 tons. The IMF said in 2009 it would put 403.3 tons up for sale as part of a program to lend at reduced rates to low-income nations. The bank sold 212 tons to India, Sri Lanka and Mauritius. In February, the bank said it would begin on-market sales. Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased net-long positions in New York gold futures by 1 percent to 221,329 contracts in the week to Nov. 23 from the previous week, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Immediate-delivery palladium advanced 0.5 percent to $695.25 an ounce, heading for a fifth monthly gain. Platinum for immediate delivery dropped 0.2 percent to $1,644.88 an ounce, poised to decline for the first time in three months In December contracts, gold settled $3.60 higher at $1,366 per troy ounce, silver was 44.9 cents higher at $27.148, and palladium settled $18.90 lower at $676.50. On Monday, Gold futures on the COMEX Division of the New York Mercantile Exchange moved moderately higher on Monday as investors remained deeply worried about financial health of other peripheral eurozone nations such as Portugal and Spain. |
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bsiong
Supreme |
01-Dec-2010 00:49
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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There is no head and shoulders pattern in Gold November 30 2010 07:15 GMTBy Jordan Roy-Byrne In the past week I’ve seen more than a few mentions of the potential head and shoulders pattern in Gold. A head and shoulders pattern occurs when a market forms three peaks and the middle peak is noticeably higher than the left and right peaks. However, that is not enough for the pattern to play out as projected in the textbooks. There are other important characteristics of this pattern, which many technicians ignore or are unaware of. A real head and shoulders takes months not days or weeks to form. It is a reversal pattern so there is a long period of distribution as the pattern begins its setup. In other words, this pattern occurs at major market tops and bottoms. In a typical market, the pattern occurs only once or twice every ten years. A perfect example is the 2007-2008 top in the S&P 500.The pattern takes a while to develop (at least a year), the pattern comes after a long uninterrupted rise and momentum will begin its divergence before you even realize the market is beginning to top.Presently, Gold has no chance of being in a head and shoulders pattern. Momentum just peaked two months ago, the market remains well above the moving averages and most importantly, the market has only been rising in uninterrupted fashion for a little over a year. The market may seem like it could be forming the pattern but if it doesn’t fit any of the above characteristics, then there is no need to worry about a reversal. In fact, in the larger picture, Gold is still in the early stages of a super bullish phase in which it could reach $2,000/oz in the next six to nine months. In past commentaries, we’ve noted how bull markets tend to begin their acceleration around the ninth or tenth year. Note in the chart what happened when Gold broke above channel 2. Even after a strong run to $420 to $500, Gold accelerated to $730. That was a 46% rise in only a few months. Gold has already broken above channel 3 and only has small resistance left with channel 4. Moreoever, at the bottom of the chart we show the market’s distance from both the 80 and 40-week moving averages. Relative to past peaks, Gold still has room to run. Additionally, since the market is likely entering its most bullish phase, we could see new highs as far as the market’s distance from the 40 and 80 week moving averages. Of course nothing is certain. We only deal in probabilities and reality. The reality is that Gold is in a major bull market. Its highly probable there is no head and shoulders pattern. Judging from our evidence, there is a good chance that Gold is in an accelerating mode. Sure, Gold could drop $50 or $75. My advice is to leave that to the traders. The big money will be made in riding this bumpy trend to its zenith. George Soros, Jim Rogers, Warren Buffet and others have made their money by sticking with trends for a very long time. That is why we are sticking with Gold. Courtesy: TheDailyGold.com |
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bsiong
Supreme |
01-Dec-2010 00:45
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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bsiong
Supreme |
01-Dec-2010 00:40
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Gold steady; Europe, Koreas cloud market outlook
* Market awaits direction amid economic, political
uncertainties * Gold on course for 4th straight month of gains * Gold may drop to $1,329.45 -technicals * Coming up: U.S. consumer confidence Nov; 1445 GMT By Rujun Shen SINGAPORE, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Spot gold was steady on
Tuesday, aided by physical buying, while investors continued
to watch the progress in tackling the euro zone's debt
problems and tension on the Korean peninsula for trading cues. Uncertainties about how the euro zone would stabilise its
fiscal conditions continued to bother investors, even after a
pact over the weekend on a $115-billion bailout package for
debt laden Ireland. "We are in a period during which the market really doesn't
know which direction things are heading. The European
situation is still very uncertain. We had supposedly the
solution of the Irish situation, but it didn't seem to please
the markets too much," said Darren Heathcote, head of trading
at Investec Australia. Gold might benefit from safe-haven buying, if the
situations in Europe and the Korean peninsula deteriorated.
But a stronger dollar, another beneficiary of political and
economic uncertainties, could weigh on gold prices. The euro hovered above a two-month low hit on Monday, as
investors cast doubt on the Ireland rescue package and
expected other fiscally-troubled nations, such as Spain and
Portugal, to require aid. "In fact, we would not be surprised to see the euro sell
off to $1.28 by yearend, if indeed these two countries start
to wobble, forcing the authorities to begin the torturous work
of cobbling yet more rescue packages," MF Global said in a
research note. South Korean President Lee Myung-bak vowed retaliation
against any further provocation by the North after it attacked
an island last week. Spot gold edged up 0.1 percent at $1,369.45 an
ounce by 0719 GMT, moving in a tight range of about $6. Gold was on course for a fourth consecutive month of
gains, matching a similar winning run from November 2008. U.S. gold futures inched up 0.2 percent to $1,368.7. Spot gold is biased to fall even through it remains technically neutral as it is rangebound between $1,350 and
$1,375, said Wang Tao, a Reuters market analyst. For a 24-hour gold technical outlook:
here But physical buying in Asia remained supportive of gold
prices. "We've seen good physical demand from China and India,
both from jewellers and investors," said a Hong Kong-based
dealer, citing premium for gold bars in Hong Kong at $1.2 to
$1.5 above London prices. Tapping into growing appetite for gold from investors,
China's Lion Fund Management Co became the first fund house to
win approval to launch a fund that invests in gold-backed
exchange traded funds overseas. [ID:nTOE6AS06N] Concerns on more tightening from Beijing lingered, with
Shanghai shares slumping 3 percent by midday, as
drying up of cash was prompting retail investors, already on
edge over whether the central bank would introduce more
tightening measures, to sell heavily weighted financial and
commodities issues. The International Monetary Fund has slowed the rate of selling its gold by 40 percent in October from the previous month, as interest among central banks to own the metal increased as a hedge against economic uncertainty. heading for a 10-percent monthly gain, also a fourth straight month of gains. Precious metals prices at 0719 GMT Metal Last Change Pct chg YTD pct chg Turnover Spot Gold 1369.45 1.36 +0.10 24.98 Spot Silver 27.24 0.12 +0.44 61.85 |
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bsiong
Supreme |
01-Dec-2010 00:34
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Morning Gold & Silver Market Report – 11/30/2010November 30, 2010At 8AM (CT) the APMEX precious metal prices were:
COMMENTARY: The US Dollar continues to rise in relation to the Euro, yet precious metal prices continue to go up sharply . Historically, the price of precious metals would decrease as the value of the US Dollar increases. So what is behind the breakdown in this correlation? Investors keep coming back to the traditional role of precious metals of being an insurance policy. You need the protection they offer in times of crisis, potential crisis and uncertainty. UBS is currently suggesting that their top clients hold 7-10 per cent in precious metals. Gold spot price is up $18.70 – Silver price is up 36 cents – Platinum spot price is up - $12.80 – Palladium price is up $4.50 |
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bsiong
Supreme |
30-Nov-2010 16:20
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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LONDON, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Spot gold traded flat on Tuesday, as physical and dip buying supported, while currencies and investors were cautious due to ongoing debt worries in the euro zone. For the latest market report, click on [GOL/] PRICES * Spot gold XAU= was bid at $1,367.99, at 0754 GMT from $1,638.09 late in New York on Monday. * Silver XAG= was at $27.21 from $27.12.MARKET NEWS* The euro struggled on Tuesday and Asian stocks fell as fears that Ireland's fiscal problems could spread to other weak euro zone countries weighed on investor sentiment.* The euro paused near 10-week lows on Tuesday but few traders think the worst is over for the single currency after a rescue package for Ireland failed to dampen speculation that other bailouts will be needed in the euro zone.* Oil slipped on Tuesday, retracing part of the sharp gains seen in the previous session, while traders awaited further evidence that inventories were draining amid hopes of a surge in demand for heating in sight.* U.S. stocks edged down in a low-volume session on Monday on worries Europe's credit crisis will spread despite a weekend agreement to bail out Ireland. |
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bsiong
Supreme |
30-Nov-2010 09:29
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Comex Gold weaker as US Dollar Index hits 2.5-month high November 29 2010 18:10 GMTBy Jim Wyckoff of Kitco News Comex gold futures prices are trading modestly lower Monday morning, as the U.S. dollar index is trading higher and hit a fresh 2.5-month high overnight. December Comex gold last traded down $3.90 at $1,358.50 an ounce. Spot gold last traded down $5.40 at $1,359.25. The U.S. dollar index has been trending higher for four weeks and has recently seen safe-haven buying interest from ongoing worries about the sovereign debt problems facing the European Union and from heightened tensions between North Korea and South Korea. Technical odds are increasing that the dollar index has put in a near-term market low. The Euro currency has come under strong selling pressure recently on the EU debt concerns. The Euro hit a fresh nine-week low overnight. While the situations in the European Union and the Koreas are still arguably gold-market-bullish, gold traders have chosen, at least for the moment, to focus more on the bearish aspects of an appreciating U.S. dollar. Still, look for selling interest in gold to be limited in the near term due to the Korea and EU situations. Any new and unwanted developments on those two fronts could see a quick rally in gold on fresh safe-haven buying. U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Texas manufacturing outlook survey and the Chicago Federal Reserve manufacturing index. Technically, December gold futures bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Gold bulls' next near-term upside technical objective is to produce a close above technical resistance at the October high of $1,388.10. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,340.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,369.20 and then at $1,375.00. Support is seen at the overnight low of $1,354.50 and then at $1,350.00. Today's near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,363.00. December silver futures last traded up 2.8 cents at $26.80 an ounce. The firmer U.S. dollar is also bearish for silver. Silver bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage at present, but have faded recently, including a bearish weekly low close on Friday. The next downside near-term price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $26.00. Bulls' next upside price objective is producing a close above solid technical resistance at $28.00 an ounce. First resistance is seen at $27.00 and then at the overnight high of $27.215. Next support is seen at Friday's low of $26.475 and then at $26.25. Today's near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $26.01. By Jim Wyckoff of Kitco News; |
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bsiong
Supreme |
30-Nov-2010 01:20
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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SINGAPORE (Commodity Online) : Gold prices remained highly volatile in Asian trade mainly on renewed political tensions in the Korean peninsula. Gold for immediate delivery was seen trading at $1362.04 an ounce at 1.30 p.m Singapore time while Gold for February delivery dropped 0.2 percent to $1,362.10 an ounce on the Comex in New York. Analysts said the precious yellow metal is likely to remain highly volatile as tensions on the Korean peninsula drove the dollar to a two-month high, eroding demand for the metal. The Dollar Index, which tracks the currency’s value against six counterparts, rose as much as 0.4 percent to 80.652, the highest since Sept. 21. Silver for immediate delivery fell 0.3 percent to $26.64 an ounce after losing 3.2 percent on Nov. 26. The price reached $29.36 an ounce on Nov. 9, the highest level since March 1980. The world's largest silver-backed exchange-traded fund, iShares Silver Trust , said its holdings slipped to 10,711.23 tonnes by Nov. 26 from an all-time high of 10,893.68 tonnes by Nov 23. |
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bsiong
Supreme |
30-Nov-2010 01:01
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Morning Gold & Silver Market Report – 11/29/2010November 29, 2010At 8AM (CT) the APMEX precious metal prices were:
COMMENTARY: The European Debt crisis continues to drive the Euro down, and consequently the US Dollar up. The US Dollar Index hit a two month high. One would expect precious metal prices to fall as a reaction to the rising Dollar, and they have, but not significantly. Precious metals serve as a safe haven and with the current economic and geopolitical environment, they may hold their own despite a rising Dollar. Economist Nouriel Roubini is already suggesting that Portugal should consider a bail out.Who else will follow? Support for precious metal prices will be continued concerns about inflation, debt crisis and geopolitical tensions. Another factor might very well be China stepping up its presence as a buyer of gold. As demand as risen within China, they have approved their first gold fund. Gold spot price is down 90 cents – Silver price is up 9 cents – Platinum spot price is down $6.10 – Palladium price up $3.90 |
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bsiong
Supreme |
28-Nov-2010 12:45
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Gold may ride safe haven wave next week Published on: November 27 2010 16:05 GMT LONDON (Commodity Online): Gold prices witnessed a fall towards end of the week with the dollar gaining strength following the Europe crisis. However, with Spain and Portugal still in trouble gold may witness further safe haven demand in the coming week. The price of gold plunged $22.35 to $1,353 per ounce on Saturday as the US dollar rally picked up steam. The US dollar index broke back above the 80 level, trading at 80.45 on the back of weakness in the euro. Gold prices have risen in tandem with the broader commodity complex as well as the global equity market. Therefore, despite being a counter-cyclical asset class, the gold price is sinking as investors liquidate portfolio positions of any and all kind. Tensions in Korea, sovereign debt worries in Europe, and concerns over tighter monetary policy in emerging markets appear to be weighing on investors, which are dumping assets on what is usually a quiet day following the Thanksgiving holiday. Further contributing to the sell-off in the gold price and other commodities was the Shanghai Futures Exchange’s decision to increase margin requirements and widen daily price move limits on several of its products. The exchange announced that effective at the close of business on November 29, margin requirements on gold, copper, fuel oil, aluminum, and steel wire rod will be raised to 10%. The move to raise margin requirements is yet another step by Chinese policy makers to ease the country’s inflation pressures, particularly the surge in food prices. The move to raise margins on gold and other commodities follows an October interest rate hike and two November increases in banks’ reserve requirements //icameireadipostedfyionly// |
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bsiong
Supreme |
27-Nov-2010 11:37
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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FOR Your WEEKEND READING PLEASURE Will rising rates affect gold price? November 26 2010  Andrew Mickey Over the long run, everything is driven by interest rates. Stocks, bonds, gold, real estate, etc. are all heavily impacted by interest rates. The return of the Euro debt contagion and drop in the bond markets across the world has pushed interest rates higher in the last few weeks and it has investors concerned and rightly so. Nowhere has the concern been more prominent than in gold. A large and growing percentage of them have realized the real driver of gold prices is, has been, and will be negative real interest rates (nominal interest rates minus inflation). Central bank policies of inducing negative real rates to incentives borrowing (you get paid to borrow), keep money supply expanding, and devalue currencies have forced investors into real assets like gold and silver. It has happened before and it’s happening again: Nominal rates have stayed very low throughout the last couple of years and are so low that real interest rates must be negative. That’s starting to change as interest rates are back on the rise. And at this point, with gold nearing new all-time highs once again, it’s a prudent move to investigate whether the recent rise in rates could slow the gold bull or completely stop it in its tracks. The Backdrop: QE2 Backfires, Rates Rise Rates across the board have been on the rise since the Fed announced its latest round of quantitative easing. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond climbed from 2.40% to a recent high of 2.90% - a relative rise of 20.8%. The junk bond market has fared even worse. After a post credit crisis renaissance which saw record setting amounts of high-yield debt issues, the bull market has shown its first signs of weakness. The yield on CCC rated debt (official defined as: currently vulnerable and dependent upon favorable business, financial, and economic conditions to meet commitments) has increased from a 52-week low of 10.2% to 13.9% - a relative 36% increase. Muni bonds have been hit too. The Republican takeover of the House has made a bailout of profligate spending states even more unlikely as more of them near insolvency. Merrill Lynch reports the yield investors expect on short-term muni debt has climbed from 2.4% to 3.2% - a relative increase of 33%. In a gold bull market which has been fueled by negative real rates, conventional thinking would suggest rate increases would, at the very least, halt the rise of gold as the negative real rates get closer to turning positive. History, however, actually says the exact opposite is true. Rising Rates: A Symptom of Inflationary Disease The gold bull market of the 1970s was dominated by inflation. Interest rates rose steadily to keep up with it, but real interest rates were mostly negative the entire time. In 13 of the 14 years tracked both interest rates and average gold prices rose. The only exception was 1981 which came after a year when average gold prices nearly doubled. This time around we’re seeing a very similar situation. The 10-year Treasury bond yield has increased 30% and gold prices have climbed 55% since treasuries yields bottomed out in December 2008. That move is strikingly similar to 1979 when rates increased 24.3% and gold rose 58.72%. At the risk of saying “this time is different” though, it really is. There’s no incoming Fed chief with plans of whipping inflation now (in fact, they’re taking steps to do the exact opposite). And the political will to induce a recession that would drive housing prices to their natural levels, put an end to the stock rally, destroy the bond market, and likely bottom out near the next election, is non-existent. So if you’re concerned about the recent rise in rates – which you should be. Rising rates are not good for stocks, bonds, or the economy. When it comes to the gold bull market however, interest rates are likely a symptom of growing underlying inflation and, if history is any example, their rise will coincide with gold. We continue to believe what we said in our gold stock: Normally, gold is a poor investment. Just look at the gold bear market between 1981 and 2001. Not much money was made in gold. And from a fundamental perspective, gold is a metal with virtually no industrial uses. Gold’s not like a piece of manufacturing equipment. It’s not productive capital which you can invest in and use to increase production of something. It’s gold. Every few decades though, the right conditions come along to make an absolute fortune in gold and gold stocks. Right now the conditions are right. Rising interest rates are more a signal that conditions for gold are only improving. Andrew Mickey is Chief Investment Strategist at Q1 Publishing |
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27-Nov-2010 11:24
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Gold buying on price pullbacksPublished on November 27, 2010 06:52By Allen Sykora Standard Bank sees physical buying of gold on price pullbacks. Risk appetite at the moment appears limited ahead of the weekend. Furthermore, the market is illiquid on a Friday between the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday and a weekend, perhaps leading to more pronounced price moves, Standard says. Gold is one of the commodities on the defensive. “We continue to see net physical buying of gold, especially on dips,” Standard says. “We maintain gold in euro terms will outperform gold in dollar terms.” By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; |
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27-Nov-2010 11:19
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Gold weaker, focus on dollar gains, Europe crisisFri Nov 26, 2010 12:35pm EST
* Dollar hits fresh two-month highs vs euro on debt crisis * Portugal adopts budget, denies bailout pressure * Decision on Irish bailout expected on Sunday |
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26-Nov-2010 21:52
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Gold weaker, focus on dollar gains, Europe crisis
* Gold down 1 percent but steady in euro terms * Euro hits fresh two-month lows on Europe debt crisis * Portugal rejects report of euro zone pressure for bailout By Elizabeth Fullerton LONDON, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Gold fell 1 percent on Friday as the dollar pushed to fresh two-month highs against the euro on worries that Ireland's debt crisis was spreading and on growing speculation of an imminent Portuguese bailout. However, gold was underpinned by some modest safe haven buying amid investor nervousness over the European debt crisis after a newspaper report that euro zone nations were pressuring Portugal to follow Ireland's lead and seek a bailout. Portugal and Germany's finance ministry denied the report. Spot gold XAU= was trading at $1,360.55 an ounce by 1248 GMT from $1,374.12 late on Thursday, off an intraday low of $1,357.85. Gold futures GCZO were also down some 1 percent at $1,360. Trade was fairly thin as U.S. markets were closed for a second day following the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. On a weekly basis, gold was headed for a 1.3 percent rise, snapping two consecutive weeks of losses. "Investors are eyeing a strengthening dollar and see no reason to hold gold in a strengthening dollar environment," said David Wilson, analyst at Societe Generale. Gold's traditional inverse relation to the U.S. dollar broke down in May this year when the euro zone's debt problems became apparent, prompting investors to dump the single European currency, but the dynamic has since reasserted itself. In euro terms XAUEUR=R, gold was trading little changed at 1,027.48 euros an ounce compared with 1,028.76 euros late on Thursday, having broken through the 1,000 euros mark on Monday for the first time in a week. EURO WOES "Gold's still holding well on the crosses which is the important thing at the moment. I think it's just drifting in thin quiet Friday conditions as the currency markets move," said Simon Weeks, a trader at Scotiamocatta. The euro EUR= fell to a fresh two-month low of $1.3217 against a resurgent dollar <USD/> in European trade, while the Spanish/German 10-year bond yield rose to a euro-lifetime high as the market focused on the likelihood of Ireland's debt crisis spilling over to Spain and Portugal. Portugal's parliament on Friday approved the final 2011 budget, aimed at sharply reducing the fiscal deficit. Meanwhile, Spain's Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero ruled out a Spanish bailout in the footsteps of Greece and Ireland. "As Eurozone funding worries are not going to go away, it is against the euro that gold should be gauged," UBS analyst Edel Tully said in a report on Friday. Noting that gold looked set for its first positive weekly close since Nov. 5, she said: "We view this resilience as a sign of gold starting to enjoy some safe-haven demand in response to events in Europe." Sabre-rattling by North Korea following its shelling of the South earlier this week added to an uncertain geopolitical picture which could lend gold some support from more risk-averse investors. North Korea said on Friday that impending military exercises by the South and the United States were pushing the region towards war. The rest of the precious metals complex was also lower. Silver XAG= fell to $26.67 from $27.54 late on Thursday and platinum XPT= shed 1 percent to $1,637.74 an ounce, while palladium XPD= was down 3 percent at $669.5. (Editing by Anthony Barker) |
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26-Nov-2010 13:36
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Gold steady; eyes $1,400/oz on Europe, Korea worries
By Nicholas Trevethan SINGAPORE, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Gold was steady on Friday,
trading just shy of $1,400 a ounce, underpinned by anxiety of
Europe's debt situation and geo-political tensions in Asia. Spot gold drifted 87 cents lower to $1,373.25 an
ounce by 0347 GMT, trading below its all-time high around
$1,424 struck in early November. "The focus of the market is still Europe, as well as the
development in Korea. Next week, gold is likely to be traded
in the range of $1,340-$1,380," said a Singapore based dealer. Worries about the risk of an escalation of hostility
between North and South Korea after an exchange of artillery
fire earlier this week, and concerns about Ireland's sovereign
debt have lifted gold and the dollar, appealing to investor
demand for security, unravelling gold's more typical inverse
relationship with the greenback. The dollar traded 0.2 percent higher versus the euro
at $1.3330. Investors continue to watch for signs that Ireland's debt
crisis may spill over into other euro zone members, but senior
euro zone officials dismissed suggestions that the single
currency area could break up because of peripheral members'
high debts and deficits. Markets shrugged off news that Vietnam's central bank had granted additional quotas for domestic companies to import gold between now and the year-end, but dealers noted buying on dips from consumers in Hong Kong and Southeast Asia. Precious metals prices at 0347 GMT Metal Last Change Pct chg YTD pct chg Turnover Spot Gold 1373.25 -0.87 -0.06 25.33 Spot Silver 27.44 -0.10 -0.36 63.04 Spot Platinum 1649.99 -5.96 -0.36 12.47 Spot Palladium 694.97 -0.26 -0.04 71.39 Euro/Dollar 1.3327 Dollar/Yen 83.77 //i came i read i posted FYI only // |
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