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SPC
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chinkiasu
Master |
21-May-2007 12:52
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dear Vic, yes I agree this counter will move even beyond 6.00...i had suspected Keppel management has great plans for SPC.. and off course the refining margins are really good too... btw, even today it had moved now 5.3.. however you (or rather elf) won on Gemtv.. (it is totally a different situation) but the story is really not over there... I dont want to take up your bet there because i dont want to be distracted... lets say situation is not that simple... but i am watching it very carefully... there is actual bucks to be made too (or lost too).. right now the line is drawn at 0.865.. |
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onefour02
Senior |
21-May-2007 12:22
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looks good for SPC up till lunch time. | |||||||||
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singaporegal
Supreme |
20-May-2007 16:01
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Short term TA outlook for SPC isn't a bullish one. Trade cautiously. Acc/Dist and Chaikin are turning down. |
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onefour02
Senior |
19-May-2007 22:43
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shplayer, lets hope for more positive news on upstream. | |||||||||
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onefour02
Senior |
19-May-2007 22:41
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enlightened but not convinced. | |||||||||
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idesa168
Elite |
19-May-2007 22:29
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142...it's an 8.73¢ added to the expanded EPS of 2007. If that is multiplied by 8X PE, it's worth about 80¢ of today's share price. When the share price of SPC escalated 30¢ a few days ago, everyone were overwhlem. Now if we see 80¢, what will happen? Here I think every cents counts. | |||||||||
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shplayer
Elite |
19-May-2007 22:18
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onefour02, just a comment on your assumption of the upstream profits...... Existing Kakap is an 'old' field....production platforms and facilities were installed at 'historical' costs. Oyang is a new field and production facitilies are installed at 'today"s' cost. So, the cost of pumping out the crude oil may not be similiar....therefore, the 'profit' may not be a direct extrapolation of data from Kakap. Also, I would not sniff at a 'mere 8 ct' eps. 8cts is about 12% of the current consensus eps for FY07. . Without this contribution, the P/E, based on Friday's close of $5.15 will go from 7.4X to 8.2X. Furthermore, during periods of low RM, benefits from upstream activities will be greatly magnified. Whilst Downstream profit is far greater, the margins are very fine.....using the figures you stated, Downstream net margin is about 4% whilst Upstream margins is about 30%. The management is therefore right to pursue development of the Upstream business agressively. |
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onefour02
Senior |
19-May-2007 21:42
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took this out of the annual report Downstream activities contributed $8,525.0 million in turnover and an operating profit of $338.2 million, while exploration and production activities contributed $49.2 million in turnover and $14.6 million in operating profit. 14.6mil profit in FY06. production only starts in second half, but i just take it as triple profit for whole year and round up to 45mil. 45mil divided over 515mil shares is a mere 0.08cents. |
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idesa168
Elite |
19-May-2007 21:23
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142 & jkbk07...thanks for your view on the earning of SPC. I am optimistic with Q2/Q3/Q4 because of the additinal 6,000 bpd contribution from Oyong field to be added to the existing 2,650 bpd from Kakap. Hence I am sticking to my numbers of Q2(26¢), Q3+Q4(28¢), FY07(75¢)....$6.00 is not very far from here. Cheers! | |||||||||
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idesa168
Elite |
19-May-2007 21:12
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It's wonderful to see all suporters of SPC is back in full swing. Let's ROCK 'N' ROLL this coming week! To be honest, my price target for SPC is not $5.50 nor $6.00. I am targeting at least $7.80 to $8.00. This target I am hoping is not for the short/mid term. I do not know when that will happen, maybe 4 yrs from now? Hope by then is not 70¢/80¢...lol | |||||||||
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liverpoolfc
Member |
19-May-2007 20:59
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Geojam Wonderful to hear you guys so confident to hold till 5.80 or 6.00 Me do likewise change my target to 5.80 or 6.00 |
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onefour02
Senior |
19-May-2007 13:05
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that's US refinery margin figures, i wonder what we achieved here at SRC. anyway, on future outlook, Singapore complex refinery margins might one day enjoy such high margins as China grows. WOOHOO! |
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geojam
Member |
19-May-2007 10:09
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We can look forward to exciting time ahead for SPC. Me no $5.80 or $6 no sell. |
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jkbk007
Senior |
19-May-2007 08:58
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Price of oil surges while gas shortage fears rise "It's a great time to be in the refining business. Refiners have been running full out for a long time so things break down." The profit margin, or "crack," for turning crude oil into fuels has more than tripled this year. It rose to $30.4786 Thursday, the highest since at least 1989, based on closing futures prices in New York. Gasoline demand"Demand hasn't cratered," Hodge said. "The first time gasoline hit $3 it was a bigger issue, but people have gotten used to it. Most people don't have an option, they have to drive." http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-fri_oil_05-18may18,0,324205.story?coll=chi-business-hed |
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onefour02
Senior |
19-May-2007 08:44
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geojam, upstream may be contributing, but not significant... | |||||||||
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jackjames
Elite |
19-May-2007 07:12
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geojam, yes I am.. I would love to come in ... even at 5.15.. ha ha..see first see first... , just want to search around any other hidden bright stars in SGX.. many you know.. | |||||||||
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jkbk007
Senior |
19-May-2007 07:06
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1402 and ideasa168, I think we are all in the same field of thoughts which is why we are still holding tight to SPC. I try to be very very conservative and end up with Q2 forecast at 23 cents eps and Q3 at 28 cents. As for Q4 I just throw in a small number of 7 cents assuming that we have a slow down in demand perhaps due to high energy price and warm winter. That sums up to about 80 cents but I think I am being conservative. Signs are pretty good that Q2 is pretty good. As for the signs in Q3, I see refining capacity to remain tight and thus maintain high petroleum price. SPC is in sweet spot as regional refining capacity are expected to remain constrained by high cost and shortage of skilled workers. Hot summer prediction from Europe is likely to cause energy demand to surge during these period of abnormally hot weather. This should put further pressure to move petroleum price to record level. La Nina looks certain to appear in 2007. Yesterday news of above average rainfall in Australia reflects a change in weather pattern and is also a sign associated with La Nina. Weather pattern also points to NOAA predictions of above average hurrican season. With El Nino gone, winter should come back during the normal season. On the negative side, hurricans causing extensive damage to refineries are rare events. In the past strong hurrican would typical caused temporary shut downs. Global economy remains healthy but may slowdown or falter under high energy price. Petroleum and crude prices are key indicators for energy demand and supply. Falling petroleum and crude prices can only points to falling demand. Historical data shows that petroleum prices would fall first before crude pointing to falling demand. Below shows gasoline prices falling in Aug 06 and is followed by a crude price drop in Sep06 as demand for crude decreases.
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geojam
Member |
19-May-2007 06:21
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142 There was a forumer,whose friend owns 100 lots of SPC.Lucky man--just divvy alone is alot of money. I am prepared to hold SPC for a while.Not selling yet. Jackjames---still interested in SPC?sold off but waiting for chance to come back in? |
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jackjames
Elite |
19-May-2007 05:49
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Energy stocks charged further into record territory Friday, riding a rally in oil prices that kept June crude futures north of $65 a barrel for most of the day. Heightened tensions in Nigeria, where labor unions were threatening a two-day strike later this month to protest recent presidential elections, raised fresh concerns over the flow of crude supplies from the country. Nigerian output has been hobbled this month by rebel actions aimed at its oil fields, knocking out more than 200,000 barrels a day. SPC should UP on Monday. |
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geojam
Member |
19-May-2007 05:42
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142 would i say ur EPS estimate is about 65cents for FY07? Second half of year,more upstream production come into play? |
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