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MIIF
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ShareJunky
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18-Sep-2008 14:41
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Saw on CNBC before lunch-break - news abt parent co. MacQ Bk in Australia have some financial issues - its price there dropped more than 20% --- so maybe affecting MIIF share price here. |
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chinton86
Veteran |
18-Sep-2008 14:34
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Foriengn funds selling... More to drop.... | ||
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nickyng
Supreme |
18-Sep-2008 13:26
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nah...i m waiting to buy lower :P wonder wat cause the plunge ?? hee... |
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chinton86
Veteran |
18-Sep-2008 11:17
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Do not buy!Sell before it hits more all time low! | ||
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left_bug
Senior |
18-Sep-2008 10:15
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In a blink of the eye, it went down to 0.35. Too bad I got it at 0.42. I should have listen to my instinct and withdraw and stick to the screen all the time instead of writing stuff on sharejunction. Now is climbing back. Anyway, I am selling my cambridge to load this one. Good choice or bad choice. We will see. Man, how to work in a day like this. Don't you wish you work in a factory not in the office with computer right in front of you. It probably will save me lots of money. | ||
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left_bug
Senior |
18-Sep-2008 09:51
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What a fall! Mr. Nick, are you the force behind this. | ||
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nickyng
Supreme |
17-Sep-2008 17:52
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wow...script divident 70cts and this burger at 55cts now ?!?!?! wow...who in the right mind wanna subscribe for script ??? hee... :D |
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Stupidbear
Senior |
01-Sep-2008 16:08
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I was looking for some supporting reasoning for your comments though. =)
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chinton86
Veteran |
01-Sep-2008 15:33
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Meaning it will drop.... sell while it still worth something, i believed. | ||
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Stupidbear
Senior |
01-Sep-2008 14:42
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why is the price good?
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chinton86
Veteran |
01-Sep-2008 13:59
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sell it while the price is still good now. | ||
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Farmer
Master |
01-Sep-2008 10:39
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Here's another report by ABN AMRO......take note of the topic highlighted in red should share price keeps heading south??? Let's kiv closely. Silver medal now, room to improve MIIF's 1H08 result was slightly behind our expectations, with the 4.25cps dividend below our forecasts. We expect the operating environment to pick up in the 2H. Retain view that MIIF offers good defensive qualities in an uncertain market. Buy maintained. Distribution slightly below expectations MIIF’s 1H dividend of 4.25cps was below our forecast of 4.35cps. On the back of this we have reduced our full year distribution from 8.8cps to 8.7cps and reduced our FY09 forecast from 9.2cps to 9.1cps (4.6% year on year growth). Net income on an adjusted basis was down 41.6%, however this was largely as a result of asset divestments. Mixed asset performance Of the major assets TBC was the strongest performer with EBITDA increasing 6.7% on an increase in subscriber numbers and effective cost control. HNE showed positive traffic growth (4.5%), with its first distribution to MIIF expected by management in September this year. Arqiva recorded EBITDA growth of 6.0%, although margins declined due to the integration of the lowermargin BT SBS business. However, CXP continues to be weak on lower steel volumes, while the distribution from MEIF was slightly weaker than we forecast. Still solid on debt We remain comfortable with MIIF’s debt position given its weighted average asset debt maturity of eight years, interest rate hedging (54% through 2012), and no debt refinancings required until FY11. On a proportionately consolidated basis, MIIF gearing sits at 59% (comparable to other infrastructure peers), which we expect to remain at similar levels. During the half, MIIF paid down its corporate debt facility to S$53m (from S$178m) using the proceeds from its sale of MAP securities, driving down interest costs to S$1.3m (from S$3.7m in 1H07). Maintain Buy recommendation MIIF continues to show that it is well protected from adverse market conditions due to the stable nature of cashflows within its assets. We have lowered our valuation and target to S$1.12, largely reflecting tougher economic conditions, but we maintain our Buy recommendation as we believe MIIF has defensive qualities that are desirable in the current market uncertainty. |
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Farmer
Master |
01-Sep-2008 10:17
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A report by Macquarie last month.....seems a bit bias to me on its recommendation. Missing the cash for the dividend Event Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund (MIIF) reported its interim result. On an unconsolidated basis the income available for dividend was S$33.6m, compared with our expectation of S$37.0m. The benefits of the currency hedges and slightly lower interest expense offset weaker dividends than forecast from MEIF, Canadian Aged Care and Changshu Port. The declared dividend of S$0.0425 is well above the first-half cashflow of S$0.026. Impact The focus for listed funds in other markets has been dividend quality, namely that underlying cashflow can cover the dividend. For MIIF, up until 2008 this was never an issue. However, in 2008 it appears MIIF is short cashflow, albeit management is confident it will catch up. Our core cashflow expectation is S$0.069, compared with a revised dividend expectation of S$0.085. In the short term the DRP is capable of bridging the gap, but this is low quality and does not look sustainable. It is only as clarity emerges over what will generate the coverage that we believe confidence will grow in the dividend, yield and valuation. Operationally, CXP and Canadian Aged Care were disappointing, lowering dividend income from these assets. Hua Nan Expressway was slightly lower than expected but not dramatic. TBC performed slightly ahead of forecasts, driven by cost control. The unknown remains Arqiva, which is still to report. From a valuation perspective, our NPV has decline from S$1.25 to S$1.04, principally reflecting a lower valuation of Arqiva closer to recent transaction prices and as a result of the delay in the approval of the merger/asset tour. We have also lowered valuations reflecting earnings changes at Hau Nan Expressway, Canadian Aged Care and CXP, combined with anticipated dilution from the DRP. Earnings revision From a dividend perspective, we have reduced our dividend cashflow from S$0.077 in 2008 to $0.069 and from $0.082 to $0.072 in 2009. The lower cashflow comes from dilution and reduced income form CXP and CAC. Price catalyst 12-month price target: S$1.08 based on a DCF methodology. Catalyst: Demonstration of dividend quality Action and recommendation We remain attracted to MIIF, as it has quality assets and is likely to realise 60% of the portfolio in the coming two years as it re-invests in Asia, in our view proving that valuation combined with quality investments will be positive for the stock. The only uncertainty remains the dividend coverage, with clarity likely to lift as MIIF rationalises the portfolio. We maintain our Outperform recommendation |
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Farmer
Master |
28-Aug-2008 09:37
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Thursday, August 28, 2008Macquarie - The AustralianMacquarie group hit hard on downgradeSHARES in Macquarie Group were smashed yesterday after UBS downgraded the stock to neutral, predicting that a sustained downturn would put "substantial pressure" on the investment bank. UBS targeted two main areas of vulnerability -- Macquarie's capital levels, as well as the ability of its asset-recycling business model to continue generating strong revenue as asset prices fell. "Although we believe Macquarie is a strong franchise with strong, diverse businesses, a sustained downturn will place substantial pressure on its operations," analyst Jonathan Mott said. In the stock's biggest fall since January, shares in Macquarie slumped $4.44, or 9.6 per cent, to a four-year low of $41.61, as the bearish mood infected the satellite funds. Macquarie Airports shed 14c, or 4.4 per cent, to $3.07, and Macquarie Infrastructure Group gave up 11c, or 4.9 per cent, to $2.12. In his report, Mr Mott noted Macquarie had $7.1 billion of equity investments and assets held for sale on its balance sheet -- equal to 70 per cent of shareholders' funds. Significant impairment charges were unlikely in the current half, he said, given the bank's recent commentary that there were "no material concerns with carrying values". However, valuations could come under pressure if prices continued to fall. "Additionally, given equity accounting of a number of these positions, if the boards of these associates chose to write down asset values, it will be proportionally recognised by Macquarie," Mr Mott said. "This is consistent with many of the write-downs recently announced by Babcock & Brown." At the very least, he said, it was unlikely that Macquarie could repeat the 20 per cent of total revenue it generated from investment disposals in 2007, or even the 12 per cent of last year's revenue. Mr Mott also said that, while Macquarie was adequately capitalised, it had less flexibility than widely perceived. The group has previously said it had about $3 billion capital in excess of its minimum requirements, including $2 billion in Macquarie Bank and $1 billion in the non-banking operations. But UBS said the minimum was not an appropriate benchmark in a global environment of de-gearing of bank balance sheets. After adjustments for "more appropriate ratios", it estimated that group excess capital was closer to $500 million. "Although we see Macquarie Group as adequately capitalised, we believe there is less flexibility than is widely perceived," UBS said. The investment bank downgraded its 2009 profit forecast for Macquarie by 2 per cent to $1.5 billion, and by 10 per cent next year to $1.52 billion. Switching its recommendation from "buy" to "neutral", UBS downgraded its 12-month price target from $60 to $48. But the group was not friendless. Argo Investments managing director Rob Patterson, holder of a $150 million-plus stake in the country's biggest home-grown investment bank, said the share market had "completely overreacted" to the UBS report. "An analyst is entitled to his point of view, but he's guessing that financial markets won't be any different next time Macquarie reports (its profit)," he said. "Sure, Macquarie will struggle to beat 2008 earnings, as it has said. "But we're long-term investors and we're not going to throw the stock out just because it has experienced peak-cycle earnings." |
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humblepie
Member |
28-Aug-2008 00:11
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hmm, if u guys observer FSL Shipping Trust, it also sold down like 14% in 2 days. I think its not about Macquarie. If its about Macquarie, we should see a similar selldown in MIC and MIG,2 other infra funds listed in australia. | ||
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DanielXX
Member |
27-Aug-2008 15:23
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Banks lah. All tight for credit. |
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SmartBear
Member |
27-Aug-2008 15:20
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what kinda trouble is Macquaire in ? | ||
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DanielXX
Member |
27-Aug-2008 14:59
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This stock is down because its parent Macquarie is in the pits these days. I'm not too sure how it affects the cashflow from the child but it seems that there have been a few precedents of the child suffering from the parent's troubles eg. Badcock, Allco. So..... what we're seeing is kiasu ppl bailing out in case it gets worse. | ||
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danielb
Member |
27-Aug-2008 14:50
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I certainly hope your evaluation of MIIF is accurate because I am short on this stock since 80 cents. 
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Farmer
Master |
27-Aug-2008 14:06
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Beware of this counter! Stay vigilant! It has been heading south since XD yesterday from 77cts to current 64.5cts. Tho I believe its fundamental still intact, the market seems to believe otherwise consider the what BBGI had gone thru' recently from 60+ cts CD to XD of ~47 cts to the current 30cts and both their parents have suffered massive selling pressure in AU market with BB Ltd down over 90% since its high last Jul.and MIG down ~50%, there maybe more downside to go. Do note that both Macq. & Babcock share the same business model, ie. borrow to finance its acquisition, thus, both have high gearing. Last reported results(1H08) shown MIIF's gearing to be 59%..that's quite high consider the present market conditions whereby credit is tight...just my 2 cents worth! |
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