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Rubber prices
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Nostradamus
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26-Jul-2007 23:24
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Tokyo rubber futures surged more than 3.7% on Thursday, halting 3 straight days of losses as the weakening yen and higher oil prices prompted buying. Rubber futures opened higher on strong gains in oil futures. Selling on a rally became active at one point. But prices went up sharply on a bout of buying led by speculators early in the afternoon. The most active Dec contract rose 9.4 yen to end at 262.6 yen per kg, above key resistance of 260 yen. The new Jan '08 contract settled at 261.6 yen, up from its debut price of 257.6 yen. The dollar rose sharply against the yen on Wednesday, brushing off weak figures on U.S. existing home sales and pulling away from the 119.80 yen level, its weakest in 2.5 months. On Thursday, the dollar was at 120.49/52 yen by 0319 GMT. Earlier this week, a rise in the yen had weighed on yen-based rubber future prices. Physical rubber prices rose in line with TOCOM. Trading was brisk, with buyers from China seeking Thai RSS3 to refill depleted stocks, traders said. Other dealers said major tyre makers Goodyear Tire and Rubber Co. and Bridgestone Corp. were also buying for forward cargoes. Physical rubber prices were expected to remain firm this week due to limited supply as rains hit producing countries, disrupting tapping. "A few Indonesian traders have to delay their shipment due to limited supply caused by unfavourable weather," an Indonesian dealer said. As for GMG, it appears to be supported around the 200-day EMA. But rebound may be weak. |
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Jennie
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26-Jul-2007 16:11
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Hi Nostradamus, Tocom is limits up today. What's causing the sudden jump? For the past few weeks, Tocom was quite bearish. Is it mainly due to supply tightness in Thailand & Malaysia due to the rain? Or are there some other factors? How do you view the current market? |
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rby_ong
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26-Jul-2007 14:03
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SohguanhVeterran, Think you got me wrong...or you have read correctly :) |
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sohguanh
Veteran |
26-Jul-2007 13:16
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rby_ong: wan fast $$$ go play online casino and online football betting which is a better medium than shares IMHO :) |
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rby_ong
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26-Jul-2007 12:56
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sounds like this stock cannot buy????? For me if i want to earn fast $$ then this counter will not be able right one. If this counter really that bad last around the Dividend will not be giving out 0.005cents...compare to other penny shares so that all depends pn you want to enter at lower and wait for the correct time to get out.. Looking at the past two weeks trading transaction seems like people trying to push down to 0.135 lower and lower but it hover around 0.135 to 0.145 but at the other side there still Q for buying in there really puzzle me then. zhuge_liang, please advise us what your view for this counter since you have report the negative side of this counter? And what the good time to buy? |
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Nostradamus
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25-Jul-2007 21:53
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Tokyo rubber futures tumbled more than 2% at one stage on Wednesday to touch a near one-week low as strengthening Japanese yen weighed on the prices. The benchmark, most distant Dec '07 contract finished at 253.2 yen per kg, down 3.6 yen from Tuesday. "Energy prices and a stronger yen," helped drag rubber futures lower, Roka Komiya, a trader at Marubeni Corp. in Tokyo, said today by phone. "Funds that were buying last week started selling." The flow of money from funds is "much bigger than speculators," he said. Dealers said technical charts looked more bearish after prices fell below 255 yen support, and tested 250 yen. "The technical sentiment looked weak. We hope that fundamentals will lend some support," one dealer said. "If prices fall below 250 yen, it would mean that the market is in a downward trend," another dealer said. But the decline was limited amid worries over disruptions in rubber supplies due to the rains in Thailand. In southern India, rubber output is expected to fall as a mosquito-spread viral fever has affected workers in rubber estates, delaying tapping. ongtlm, avoid this stock for now. |
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ongtlm
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25-Jul-2007 18:59
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zhuge_liang sounds like this stock cannot buy! |
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zhuge_liang
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24-Jul-2007 21:29
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Tokyo rubber futures fell 1.2%, extending losses on selling fuelled by a stronger Japanese yen, but the decline was seen limited by concerns over a squeeze in supplies. The benchmark rubber contract on the TOCOM for Dec delivery fell 3.0 yen to end at 256.8 yen per kg. Support came from concerns over supplies hit by unseasonal rains and from Japan's lower rubber stocks, dealers said. The output of rubber was also expected to fall in India as a mosquito-spread viral fever affected workers in rubber estates in southern India, delaying tapping. In Southeast Asian producing nations, physical rubber extended gains despite falls in TOCOM as concerns over declining supplies supported the market. Unseasonal rains in Thailand's south are likely to hit tapping. Dealers said raw material prices could rise further with widespread rains in Malaysia and an early start of the dry season in Indonesia, when trees produce less latex. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
24-Jul-2007 12:15
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Crude rubber stocks held at Japanese warehouses fell 10% to 13,650 tonnes by Jul 10 from 15,179 tonnes when the previous data was taken on Jun 20, the Rubber Trade Association of Japan said. The latest level was the lowest since Dec. 20, but it was about 17% above the year-earlier level of 11,679 tonnes. TOCOM rubber futures, a benchmark for global prices, have found support since late last week amid short-term concerns over supplies on views that forecasts of heavy rain in key producing countries could disrupt tapping. But the underlying trend for TOCOM rubber was weak due to receding concerns over potential supplies in the long term, with unclear technical trends continuing to induce fund-selling. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
23-Jul-2007 23:46
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Tokyo rubber futures slipped on Monday, as players took profit amid the bearish trend in other commodities. The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for December delivery fell by 1.0 yen, or 0.4 percent, to settle at 259.8 yen ($2.14) per kg. Profit-taking and technical selling emerged after prices failed to break above a key resistance at 260.0 yen. TOCOM prices were also under pressure due to lack of technical support from other commodities. Gold prices were mostly steady on Monday as the dollar fell to a record low agains the euro and a six-week low against the yen. Dealers said they expected TOCOM prices to be traded in a narrow range of 255-260 yen, with the upside capped by profit-taking and the downside supported by declining supplies. "It's not clear whether the prices could go up again after they failed several times to break above 260 yen," one dealer said. "However, TOCOM should be supported over the next few days by falling supply." On the physical front, prices were unchanged despite the fall in TOCOM. Physical trade was thin with most buyers waiting for prices to soften, but producers would not lower rates as disruptions in supplies due to rain are expected to push up raw material prices. "More rains were expected to hit Thailand's south and we expected raw material prices could rise higher over the next few days," a trader in Thailand's Hat Yai rubber centre said. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
22-Jul-2007 18:09
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India's exports of NR fell sharply in the first quarter of '07/08, while a rising rupee and lower global prices pushed up imports, an official at the state-run Rubber Board said. Exports in Apr-Jun fell 59% to 9,239 tonnes from 22,612 tonnes in the same period a year ago, the official said. "The appreciation of rupee against the dollar is the main reason for the slow down in exports," the official, who could not be named, said. The rupee has strengthened by about 9.5% in the last 6 months. India's financial years run from Apr to Mar. Imports, mainly from Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam, rose 41% to 23,142 tonnes from 16,388 tonnes. Traders said contracts for much of the rubber that arrived in the quarter were finalised between Nov and Jan, when domestic prices were way above international rates. Orders slowed from Feb as local prices eased. In Jan, domestic prices were ruling at 9,700 rupees (US$240) per tonne against 9,300 rupees overseas. Between Feb and Jun NR in the domestic market moved in the range of 8,100-9,800 rupees per tonne, while in the international market it was quoted at 9,200-10,500 rupees. India, the world's 4th-largest producer, expects output to reach 875,000 tonnes in '07/08 from 853,000 tonnes the previous year. More than 90% of NR comes from southeast Asia, with Africa and South America producing most of the rest. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
21-Jul-2007 18:07
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Indonesia's NR exports are likely to rise by 7% in '08 from an estimated 2.4 million tonnes this year on demand from key buyers such as China, an industry official said. Suharto Honggokusumo, executive director of Indonesia Rubber Association, also forecast the country's NR output would grow by 5% this year to 2.8 million tonnes from 2.67 million in '06 tonnes due to favourable weather. Next year, NR output is expected to reach around 2.9 million tonnes, he added. "China's demand for its tyre industries has been strong for the last 2 years. Moreover, it is preparing for the Olympic games in '08," Honggokusumo said. China's tyre production has grown rapidly, especially the production of radial tyres which has increased more than 20% a year over the past few years. Tyres account for 60% of Chinese rubber consumption. Honggokusumo said Indonesia's exports of NRto China, the world's largest rubber importer, stood at 337,220 tonnes in '06, up 35%t from 249,791 tonnes in '05, and were expected to rise 40% to around 470,000 tonnes in '07. Indonesia plans to replant 250,000 hectares (617,800 acres) of old smallholders' rubber plantations and add 50,000 hectares of new smallholders plantation until '10. The replanting and new expansion for smallholder rubber plantations will take place in the rubber-growing areas of Sumatra and Kalimantan island. The country is expected to overtake Thailand as the world's top NR producer in '20 by nearly doubling its NR output to 4.12 million tonnes. While Thailand's rubber output is forecast to reach 3.68 million tonnes in the same year. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
20-Jul-2007 23:15
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Tokyo rubber futures rose >2% to a 3-week high on Friday as sentiment improved after prices broke through the key resistance, backed by high oil prices and other commodities. The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for Dec delivery, rose 6.8 yen to end at 260.8 yen per kg. It broke above the 200-day MA for the first time in 3 weeks. "Technical charts improved but I'm afraid the gains could be capped by profit-taking," a dealer said. Fund buying also emerged for NR and other commodities after China announced its economic growth surged to an 12 year high of 11.9% in Q2. On the physical front, rubber prices climbed higher in line with TOCOM, but trade was not busy, with most buyers waiting for prices to fall, traders said. "They bought when prices dropped to fill their falling stocks, but they were not in a rush to buy," a Thai trader said. Physical prices were expected to remain firm next week, boosted by TOCOM gains and falling supply due to rain in some parts of Thailand and Malaysia, traders said. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
20-Jul-2007 12:33
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Since 2000, the US$ has declined more than 25% against a basket of 6 currencies including the euro and yen. The US$ has declined 4.5% this year against the euro. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
19-Jul-2007 23:04
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Tokyo rubber futures rose to a one-week high on Thursday, buoyed by high oil and gold prices. The benchmark rubber contract on tOCOM for December delivery rose 5.5 yen to end at 254 yen per kg. "The upside was expected to be capped by profit-taking after prices failed several times to break above the 200-day MA," a dealer said. The 200-day MA is 256.0 yen. On the physical front, rubber prices rose in line with TOCOM. But trading was thin, with European buyers slowing orders ahead of the summer holidays and Chinese importers on the sidelines as prices rose. "The market is very quiet. Buyers just wait and see, but they don't buy," a Malaysian trader said. Supply in Thailand and Malaysia was expected to be trimmed by rain over the next few days, traders said. Thailand's south, the country's main rubber growing area which produces around 90% of 3 million tonnes of rubber annually, was likely to be hit by scattered showers, the Thai Meteorological Department said. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
19-Jul-2007 12:19
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US$ will continue to be weak because of the twin deficits - trade and current deficits. Consequently, the Euro will be strong. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
19-Jul-2007 12:12
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Hi BlueDolphin, If you've been reading this thread, then you'll know that GMG hit resistance around $0.20. That would have been the best time for you to take profit. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
18-Jul-2007 20:35
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Tokyo rubber futures on Wednesday bounced back due to short-covering, with buoyant energy prices lending some support, but sentiment remained bearish. The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for Dec delivery rose 1.8 yen to end the morning session at 248.5 yen per kg. Short-covering set in after prices fell as low as 246.3 yen on Tues. Technical sentiment remained weak, with players doubting whether prices could break above a key resistance level as better supply in major producing countries weighed on prices, dealers said. Physical prices were still under pressure, despite rises on TOCOM and better demand, because of improving supply, traders said. "There were showers in some parts of Thailand's south, but they did not have any big impact on rubber supply," a trader in Thailand's Hat Yai rubber centre said. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
18-Jul-2007 13:09
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The euro rallied to $1.3823 to the US$ |
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zhuge_liang
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18-Jul-2007 12:05
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This currency problem will persist. Euro and S$ will remain strong because of the weak US$. The European central bank will continue to hike interest rates, whereas the Fed is on a neutral to loosening bias. The European economy is growing faster than that of the US. |
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