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bsiong
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11-Dec-2010 11:37
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Jim Rogers: Gold to eventually rise above $2000 December 10 2010 12:20 GMT NEW YORK (Commodity Online): Legendary commodities investor and global investment expert Jim Rogers says people should continue to invest in commodities whether economies in the world go worse or better. Rogers said that eventually gold—the hottest commodity—would rise above $2,000 an ounce. Speaking at the Reuters 2011 Investment Outlook Summit this week, billionaire investor Jim Rogers, who is chairman of Rogers Holdings, said that owning commodities is the best investing bet whether global economy gets better or worse because of shortages developing and the central bank printing more money. Rogers said: "Throughout history we've had long periods when the financial centers were in charge. But we've also had long periods when people who produced real goods were in charge - the farmers and the miners. The way you build an economy, a thriving economy is you save and invest." He said: “Whenever people have printed money, it has led to good things for silver, for rice, for natural gas, for real assets.” Rogers, who predicted the global bull market in commodities, pointed out that trading in real, tangible goods—commodities—remains the way for investing for the future. Rogers covered a wide variety of topics during the Summit that included the rising debt of developed nations, currency debasement, investment in gold and land, commodity futures and the economic stability of major nations. The commodities investment legend said that China is the most promising nations in the world, given its heavy emphasis on saving and infrastructure investment, its massive production base and its relatively stable currency. Reuters reported that Rogers did agree with the assessment that China's coastal regions are in the middle of a property bubble, but believed that it would be less harmful than the United States' credit bubble. Rogers pointed out that politicians are afraid to bite the fiscal bullet and will opt to debase their country's currency. He called the Chinese renminbi the world's safest currency and again said gold would eventually rise above $2,000 an ounce. Comex gold futures prices were trading modestly higher in late dealings on Thursday. The market steadied and saw some bargain-hunting buying interest after two days of selling pressure that did produce some near-term technical damage. A firmer US dollar did somewhat limit buying interest in gold. February Comex gold last traded up $6.80 at $1,390.20 an ounce. Spot gold last traded up $7.90 at $1,389.50. |
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bsiong
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11-Dec-2010 11:32
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Gold Index Chart Comex |
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bsiong
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11-Dec-2010 10:56
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Closing Gold & Silver Market Report – 12/10/2010December 10, 2010At 4PM (CT) the APMEX precious metal prices were:
COMMENTARY: Platinum rebounded into positive territory during afternoon trading, but gold, silver and palladium continued to trade down in a tight range. The market has digested recent news stories, so until the next breaking headline, we should expect precious metals to trade sideways. Of course, precious metals react strongly to “tail risks”. A “tail risk” defined as a sudden or unexpected event with intended or unintended negative consequences. Gold spot price was off $7.30 – Silver price was down 12 cents – Platinum price was up $4.10 – Palladium price was down $8.30 The long term outlook for gold remains bullish. Demand in China alone could drive up the market. China currently holds less than 3% of their foreign reserves in gold and they have stated their intentions to bring that up to the same level as Germany. Germany is over 50%. China is only 45% urbanized and yet they consume over 40% of the world commodities. Once they are at 65 % urbanized, how big will their appetite be? |
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bsiong
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11-Dec-2010 02:02
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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LONDON, Dec 10 (Reuters) - Gold fell one percent on Friday after China raised bank reserve requirements and U.S. data showed improvement in the world's top economy, which boosted the dollar and dulled the allure of precious metals. Spot gold XAU= was at $1,375.29 an ounce at 1527 GMT, from $1,387.39 late in New York on Thursday. It earlier hit a session low at $1,371.90, down from a record high at $1,430.95 touched on Tuesday. U.S. gold futures GCG1 were lower at $1,377.80. "The gold market is probably correcting on the back of the stronger dollar," said BNP Paribas analyst Anne-Laure Tremblay, adding year-end book squaring was also aiding downside pressure. "Investors who have performed well this year may be looking to protect their gains rather at this stage." U.S. consumer sentiment rose more than expected in early December while an index of current conditions jumped to its highest level since January 2008, a survey released on Friday showed. Earlier, data showed the U.S. trade deficit narrowed much more than expected in October, a Commerce Department report showed on Friday, which lifted the dollar [ID:nN09288102] [USD/] "It's a mixture of the (U.S.) data but more importantly the Chinese news that came out," said Afshin Nabavi, head of trading at MKS Finance in Geneva. "But at the end of the day we are still holding up to the same range seen earlier this week. "We are getting close to the year end and there will also be some liquidation. It looks like some of the longs are taking advantage of the rallies." Earlier however, China's central bank said it was raising lenders' required reserves by 50 basis points, effective Dec. 20, its sixth official increase this year. [ID:nLDE64D12X] "Tighter global monetary policy is bad for gold, and this is tighter monetary policy. But only slightly, and in one part of the world, so the impact is not huge," said analyst Matthew Turner at Mitsubishi Corp. Rising interest rates raise the allure of bank deposits for investors over gold, while also boosting storage costs for the metal. However, concerns over European sovereign debt polished the metal's appeal as it is seen as a safer investment. "Prolonged uncertainty over indebted Eurozone countries will only be gold supportive," said VTB Capital in a research note. INDIA BUYING After gold's pull back this week, physical demand has come in to underpin prices as investors scout for bargains, which suggests the metal may be finding its feet. "Tuesday-Thursday was our strongest three-day run of physical sales to India since late October, when gold was trading around $1,320," said UBS analyst Edel Tully. "Physical buying from India and other centres this week was likely one of the reasons more investor longs didn't liquidate, as strong physical demand is often a sign that a downtrend is about to bottom." Investors are also eyeing a Federal Reserve meeting next Tuesday, the first after fierce debate on whether the central bank's further quantitative easing would help the world's largest economy. Tremblay of BNP Paribas said that a number of issues related to U.S. monetary policy are supportive of gold, including questions about the value of the dollar and its role in the international monetary system. Spot silver XAG= sank into negative territory at $28.23 an ounce, against a $28.70 close. In other metals, platinum XPT= was at $1,667.49 against $1,675.99 while palladium XPD= was at $730.22 as against $735.97. |
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bsiong
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11-Dec-2010 01:59
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Morning Gold & Silver Market Report – 12/10/2010December 10, 2010At 8AM (CT) the APMEX precious metal prices were:
COMMENTARY: Precious metal prices are trending down this morning as a result of profit taking and news that China’s central bank adjusted reserve ratios again. By raising reserves and not interest rates, the central bank has opted for the milder form of monetary tightening. Gold spot price is down $10.40 – Silver spot off 24 cents – Platinum spot price down $6.00 – Palladium is down $4.20 |
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bsiong
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10-Dec-2010 14:38
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Gold eyes higher weekly finish on Europe woes Published on: December 10, 2010 at 11:25 SINGAPORE (Commodity Online) : Gold prices remained steady Friday after an overnight recovery due to Europe’s debt concerns while silver climbed. Spot gold was seen trading at $1389.77 an ounce at 12.30 p.m Singapore time while The February-delivery contract was 0.3 percent lower at $1,389.87 an ounce on the Comex in New York. Analysts however said the precious yellow metal is likely to moved up during the day to finish higher for the week as the dollar eased and Europe concerns might attract investments in gold. They said Ireland's debt woes continued to grab attention from investors, as Fitch downgraded the country's rating, and the opposition party said it would vote against a bailout package. The dollar paused from a rally earlier in the week as strong demand at a 30-year Treasury bond auction knocked yields lower, while the euro won a reprieve early in Asia. Meanwhile, Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, had been trending down in the past week. It declined 1.518 tones to 1,293.778 tones by Dec 9 from the previous day. Silver for immediate delivery rose 0.2 percent to $28.7750 an ounce, bringing down this week’s drop to 2.2 percent. The price rallied to $30.7025 on Dec. 7, the highest price since 1980. Silver outperformed gold this year, advancing 70 percent. Palladium for immediate delivery was little changed at $739.63 an ounce, losing 3.8 percent this week. Cash platinum rose 0.5 percent to $1,684.50 an ounce, paring this week’s loss to 2.5 percent. on Thursday, gold futures rebounded from a 2- day dip, as concerns over EU debt crisis intensified after Fitch Ratings downgraded the sovereign credit of Ireland. The most active gold contract for February delivery hiked $9.6 per ounce, or 0.7 percent, to settle at $1,392.8 a barrel. Silver for March delivery climbed 56.5 cents, or two percent, to $28.817 per ounce. Meanwhile, January platinum fell $2.5 , or 0.15 percent, to $1,678.9 per ounce. |
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bsiong
Supreme |
10-Dec-2010 12:41
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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SINGAPORE, Dec 10(Reuters) - Gold held steady on Friday in choppy trade, as a dollar rally took a breather, and uncertainty over Europe's fiscal health continued to attract investors to bullion. Ireland's debt woes continued to grab attention from investors, as Fitch downgraded the country's rating, and the opposition party said it would vote against a bailout package. The dollar paused from a rally earlier in the week as strong demand at a 30-year Treasury bond auction knocked yields lower, while the euro won a reprieve early in Asia. Traders said the market was set to trade in choppy range as interest ebbs at year-end. "Gold seems to be finding a base after the last two-day big sell-off," said a Singapore-based trader, "Physical demand should be the key to support at these levels; with downside critical support at $1,371." Gold was expected to trade in the range of $1,370 to $1,400, he added. Spot gold edged up 0.2 percent to $1,389.86 an ounce by 0325 GMT, heading for a 1.7 percent weekly decline. U.S. gold futures inched down 0.2 percent to $1,390.7. Many traders are winding down positions ahead of the year-end. "It's more of a positioning story," said a second Singapore-based trader, "We saw some sell-off as people tried to pre-position before next year. In the medium term, everyone agrees there is still a long way to go for gold, as dollar weakness will still be a dominant trend going into next year." Investors are also eyeing a Federal Reserve meeting next Tuesday, after much debate on whether the central bank's further quantitative easing would help the world's largest economy. "People are looking at the FOMC meeting to see if the QE2 (second round of quantitative easing) would be increased. In that case, it would support gold prices," said Ronald Leung, a physical dealer at Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, had been trending down in the past week. It declined 1.518 tonnes to 1,293.778 tonnes by Dec 9 from the previous day. In comparison, holdings in the iShares Silver Trust , the world's largest silver-backed exchange-traded fund, stayed at its record level of 10,941.34 tonnes. Spot silver rose by 0.7 percent to $28.89 an ounce, leading the precious metals complex and headed for a 1.5 percent weekly decline. The head of Coeur d'Alene Mines Corp , the world's biggest silver miner, said gold and silver would benefit from continuing economic uncertainty. Precious metals prices at 0325 GMT Metal Last Change Pct chg YTD pctchg Turnover Spot Gold 1389.86 2.47 +0.18 26.85 Spot Silver 28.89 0.19 +0.66 71.66 Spot Platinum 1679.49 3.50 +0.21 14.48 Euro/Dollar 1.3244 Dollar/Yen 83.69 |
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bsiong
Supreme |
10-Dec-2010 09:27
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Closing Gold & Silver Market Report – 12/9/2010December 9, 2010At 4PM (CT) the APMEX precious metal prices were:
COMMENTARY: PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian began using the term “new normal” almost two years ago to describe the changed state of the world economy after the worst recession since the great Depression. Under this “new normal” the US will continue to confront sluggish growth and high unemployment for years to come. Despite this forward view, PIMCO cannot ignore the massive amount of stimulus poured into the market, so they have raised US growth forecasts. Precious metal prices settled down in afternoon trading. Gold spot price was up $5.10 – Silver price was up 53 cents – Platinum stayed lower at off $1.90 – Palladium spot was up $10.10 |
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bsiong
Supreme |
09-Dec-2010 09:05
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Jewellers wait for dip to buy gold December 08 2010 22:30 GMTLONDON (Commodity Online): They are back in the bullion markets finally. Till now jewelers have been keeping away from the gold market due to the high above $1,400 per ounce prices of the yellow metals. However, jewellers saw a chance on Wednesday when the gold prices dipped, and they rushed to the bullion markets to buy the metal. Reason for the gold’s dip was the dollar’s gain in the currency market. However, Indian traders still were not very enthusiastic as the gold prices were still above Rs 21,000 per 10 gm in Mumbai. Gold fell $8.94 an ounce to $1,391.92 an ounce in volatile trade. It had rallied to a lifetime high at $1,430.95 on Tuesday before falling more than 1 percent on technical selling. India is in the middle of the wedding season, which will end in December after the Dhanteras and Diwali festivals in early November. In India, which accounts for 20 percent of global demand for jewellery, gold is widely gifted in religious celebrations and weddings. In Southeast Asia, dealers saw buying from Thailand, which kept premiums for gold bars steady at between 80 cents and $1 an ounce to the spot London prices in Singapore.. Lack of sales of gold scrap in Singapore and Hong Kong suggested that speculators were still bullish on gold, waiting for prices to reach new highs again before cashing in. Premiums were also steady at between 70 cents and $1 in Hong Kong, where dealers expected consumers to buy on dips in coming weeks. Global equity markets developed cold feet since the US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said on Monday that the unemployment conditions in the US would return to normal only over the next four-five years. These fears, added to the pestering Euro Zone debt crisis, helped gold to regain currency as the hedge against global uncertainties. India’s gold traders are witnessing a lukewarm response to gold, of late, reflecting peaking of the prices of this most sought after metal by Indian women even as marriage and festive seasons are yet to be over. Oil scaling $ 90 per barrel in international market on Tuesday is also expected to arrest further weakening of the rupee. //i read i post/ |
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bsiong
Supreme |
09-Dec-2010 08:57
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Closing Gold & Silver Market Report – 12/8/2010December 8, 2010At 4PM (CST) the APMEX precious metals prices were:
COMMENTARY: As was discussed in the Mid-Day Commentary, profit-taking and fears of Chinese interest rate increases have driven the prices of most commodities down. These key macroeconomic reports are now to be released on Saturday, two days earlier than the original schedule. Staying in Asia, Korean tensions may push gold to new highs before the end of the year. If gold goes up, the other precious metals usually follow. CNBC.com made predictions for 2011:
Gold price is down $26.20 – Silver spot price is down $1.37 – Platinum price is down $19.50 – Palladium spot price is down $11.30 |
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bsiong
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08-Dec-2010 23:05
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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LONDON | Dec 8 (Reuters) - Gold prices retreated further from the previous session's record high on Wednesday, down 0.75 percent, as a recovery in the dollar encouraged more investors to cash in gains that had taken the metal above $1,430 an ounce. |
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bsiong
Supreme |
08-Dec-2010 22:57
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Morning Gold & Silver Market Report – 12/8/2010December 8, 2010At 8AM (CST) the APMEX precious metals prices were:
COMMENTARY: The drop in metals pricing has led many to believe a correction is being made. Hwang Il Doo, senior trader at Korea Exchange Bank Futures Co., believes this current move is a simple cash-in to allow investors a profit-taking opportunity. Savvy investors can see through this hiccup. “With all the concerns that are around day-to-day, investment demand still remains supportive for gold,” said Standard Bank analyst Walter de Wet. Today’s news and insights continue to illustrate the overall stability of the precious metals market. Gold price is down $17.00 – Silver spot price is down $0.73 – Platinum price is down $19.70 – Palladium spot price is down $8.60 |
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bsiong
Supreme |
08-Dec-2010 17:03
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Gold eases from record gains on strong dollar Published on: December 08, 2010 at 12:20SINGAPORE (Commodity Online) : Gold prices eased from record gains mainly on a strong dollar while profit taking by some investors also hit the precious yellow metal. Spot gold was seen trading at $1391.95 an ounce at 1.30 p.m Singapore time while US gold futures for February fell more than 1 percent to below $1389.91 an ounce. Meanwhile, silver recovered from earlier losses after holdings in the world's largest silver-backed exchange-traded fund hit another record. Palladium for immediate delivery lost 0.3 percent to $730.25 an ounce, reversing an earlier advance. The price has jumped 79 percent this year. Immediate-delivery platinum declined 0.5 percent to $1,682.75 an ounce. The greenback rose for a third day against most of its major counterparts on expectations an extension of tax cuts The metal yesterday touched an all-time high of $1,431.25. Gold has jumped 27 percent this year, heading for the 10th straight annual gain. On Tuesday, the most active gold contract for February delivery declined $7. 1 per ounce, or 0.5 percent, to close at $1,409 a barrel. Gold futures had surged for six consecutive trading days before Tuesday and settled at a historical closing high of $1,416.1 on Monday. |
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bsiong
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08-Dec-2010 11:59
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Indians go for 18-carat gold now December 07, 2010 at 23:30 MUMBAI (Commodity Online): Gold-hungry Indians are finding new ways to beat the ever-rising process of the yellow metal. In India, gold is a must buy for any celebrations and weddings. Indians buy gold for their daughters on their wedding. Moreover, Indians are traditionally attracted to the yellow metal’s glitter. With the prices soaring above Rs 21,000 per 10 gm, Indians are now finding it difficult to buy the metal. So, they have found another method to beat the rising prices. They opted for lesser pure gold. Most of the Indians are now compromising on the caratage of the yellow metal while maintaining the look and feel of the jewellery they buy. If you buy ornaments made of 18 carat gold, instead of the 22 carat hallmark jewellery, the prices will be reasonable for you. The look and certification of the 18 carat gold ornaments is similar to the 22 carat hallmark jewellery. Many price-sensitive gold consumers have shifted to lower caratage gold ornaments to continue their investment in the greenback, an avenue for the hedge against inflation. Jewellery makers have also offered 100 per cent return on the gold content in the jewellery items. Hence, consumers are enthusiastic to buy lower gold caratage jewellery not only in developing countries like India, but also in developed nations like the US — the country that buys 40 per cent of the world’s gold jewellery items. Consumers do not want high gold prices to defer their annual investment plan by reducing caratage. Many consumers have even shifted to silver jewellery. A similar trend has been witnessed in India. According to an estimate, the sale of 22 carat jewellery items has reduced by almost 40-50 per cent in favour of 18 carat jewellery, while a significant percentage has shifted to gold plated silver jewellery. Gold has offered a return of over 23 per cent in the first 11 months of the current calendar year. The prices of the precious metal surged to Rs 20,540 per 10 grams on November 30, as against Rs 16,690 per 10 gram on January 1. On a year-on-year basis, however, the return in gold was even higher at 24.23 per cent as the prices of the yellow metal was lower at Rs 13,435 per 10 grams a year ago. The dramatic shift in the consumption pattern of the yellow metal is evident from WGC’s third quarter data that show that India’s gold demand from the jewellery sector increased 73 per cent to 513.5 tonnes as compared to 297.2 tonnes in the corresponding period of 2009. The rapidly growing investment demand until the second quarter of the current calendar year pressed a pause button in the third quarter. India’s net retail gold investment demand remained flat at 45.1 tonnes, an increase of one per cent from the third quarter of the previous year. |
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bsiong
Supreme |
08-Dec-2010 09:22
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Gold below record, silver ETF holdings at all time high
SINGAPORE, Dec 8 (Reuters) - Gold held steady on Wednesday after falling sharply from record highs in the previous session, while silver regained strength as holdings in the world's largest silver-backed exchange-traded fund hit another record. FUNDAMENTALS * Spot gold hardly moved at $1,400.79 an ounce by 0055 GMT. It had hit record highs for a second successive day above $1,430 an ounce on Tuesday before falling more than 1 percent on technical selling and rising short-term U.S. interest rates. * U.S. gold futures for February fell $7.6 an ounce to at $1,401.4 an ounce. * Silver hardly changed after rising to a 30-year high at $30.68 an ounce on Tuesday before falling sharply to hit a low around $28 an ounce. * The world's largest silver-backed exchange-traded fund, iShares Silver Trust , said its holdings hit another record at 10,941.34 tonnes by Dec. 7 from 10,816.69 tonnes on Dec 6. or details of the ETF's silver holdings, click on: link.reuters.com/wux96h * The world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust , said its holdings eased to 1,297.726 tonnes by Dec 7 from 1,298.030 tonnes on Dec 3. MARKET NEWS * The U.S. dollar rose in early Asia on Wednesday and looked set to climb further in the short term, having powered across the board overnight on the back of a spike in U.S. bond yields. * Japan's Nikkei average climbed 0.6 percent on Wednesday, clawing back towards a six-month high hit last Friday, after the dollar rose around 1 percent against the yen the previous day. |
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bsiong
Supreme |
08-Dec-2010 08:43
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Gold enters one-year rally Published on: December 07, 2010 at 16:30 LONDON (Commodity Online): Are gold prices headed for a one-year-long rally? It seems so if the opinion of market analysts are anything to go by. According to analysts, gold prices will continue to gain in the coming year due to the uncertainties in global economies and the unpredictable dollar. Gold has posted substantial gains in 2010 and the trend will continue in the next year also. Gold is the beneficiary of all that instability in the markets right now. Goldman Sachs, in a recent research report, said the yellow metal will rise to $1,690 an ounce over the next one year but added that the gains would peak at $1,750 an ounce in 2012 on expectations of strong US economic growth and hence a firmer greenback. On Monday, spot gold rose to $1,412.45 an ounce. Last week, the US job data helped gold gain big time as the safe haven buying increased. Spot gold broke past $1,400 an ounce on Friday the first time since November 9 after data showed US jobless rate unexpectedly hit a seven-month high. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve said the central bank could buy more bonds to boost economic growth, which in turn means more liquidity in the markets to step up purchases of assets such as gold. China, whose imports of gold increased close to five times in the first 10 months of this year versus 2009, will also help lift prices in the coming months on increasing demand. China is reportedly the world’s biggest bullion miner. The current environment for gold was bullish for another year and many analysts are certain that gold will soon cross $1,500 mark. Gold, which is up 29% year-to-date, is not the only metal which has enjoyed a sterling performance this year. Silver has advanced 76%, while platinum is up about 13%. Analysts have pointed out the rising concerns of inflationary pressure given the strong rise in the prices of these core metals. |
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bsiong
Supreme |
08-Dec-2010 08:41
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Why investors always look for gold-dollar link Published on: December 07 2010 13:55 GMT Gold investors tend to focus overwhelmingly on the relationship between the US dollar and gold, citing that a lower dollar leads to higher gold prices in US dollars. Whilst this may be generally true, there is another relationship that does not get as much attention as we believe it deserves, and that is the relationship gold has with US real interest rates. For the first few years of this gold bull market, it was sufficient simply to acknowledge the USD down, therefore gold up dynamic, but now things have changed. Over the past couple of years gold has rallied when the greenback has been making gains, as well as when it was weakening, therefore investors must now take note of the inverse relationship between US real interest rates and gold, which has been observed consistently over the last couple of years. The basic fundamentals behind this inverse relationship are that when US monetary policy is looser, real rates fall and therefore investors buy gold for a number of reasons. Firstly, lower real rates could imply higher inflationary expectations in the future therefore gold is bought as a hedge against this possible inflation. Secondly, lower real returns in Treasuries drives investors into risk assets in search of a higher return. This also sends gold higher but it also sends most commodities, risk currencies and equities higher too. Thirdly, lower real returns on Treasuries reduce demand of US dollars, causing the dollar to fall and therefore the gold price to rise in US dollars. Finally, looser monetary policy implies that the economic situation is not as rosy as many would like to believe, so if the Federal Reserve acts by loosening monetary policy and driving down real interest rates then that send a message that the economy is in a bad place therefore investors buy gold as a safe haven asset. There are probably many more reasons for this relationship, but we have just tried to cover the main ones. Whilst this inverse relationship is not perfect, it does have a distinct theoretical advantage over simply watching the USD versus gold relationship as sometimes both US dollars and gold can be in demand as safe haven assets. For example if there were to be a crisis, such as the recent sovereign debt issues in Europe, money would flow into gold in search of a safe haven, but also into dollars to escape the European issues. Investors would sell European bonds driving their yields higher, and buy US bonds driving their yields lower. Gold would be rising and the US dollar would be rising, negating their usually negative correlation. However US rates would be falling as investors bought treasuries as a safe haven and therefore the inverse relationship between gold and US treasury rates would hold firm. The theoretical aspects of this may all be well and good, but what really matters to investors and traders such as ourselves is how these theories can be applied in the real world, and how effective they are in producing profitable signals to trade from. So here is a practical example of how we applied and profited from this relationship in the real world. In late August 2010 we noticed that US real rates were falling far more rapidly that gold prices were rising. We also held the view that the Federal Reserve was going to embark on another round of quantitative easing within the next three months, therefore we did not see US real rates rising, given that the Federal Reserve would likely begin buying bonds heavily. From this we inferred that gold prices we set to stage a major rally to a new all time high, so signalled to our subscribers to buy a great deal of out of the money GLD call options to benefit from this rise. We banked profits in percentage terms, ten times higher that the gains made by gold or the HUI gold mining index during that period, and when the market began to price in QE2 and US real rates fell further we bought again and enjoyed a similar return. We are now of the opinion that US real interest rates are still too low in relation to the current gold price and therefore see the gold price going still higher to $1500. Of course this works both ways, so if US real rates begin rising there would likely be a serious correction in gold. We are monitoring this situation closely and adjusting our position accordingly, but the main purpose of this article is to draw investor’s attention to this relationship and suggest that it form a pillar of your fundamental analysis with respect to gold. This is not to say other relationships such as the USD and gold are not to be noted, they should be, but in conjunction with US real rates. By pulling all these relationships together one can get a better picture of where the yellow metal is headed and when it is going to move, which ultimately leads to more profitable trading. Courtesy: www.skoptionstrading.com |
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bsiong
Supreme |
08-Dec-2010 08:36
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Dollar Slumps As Obama, GOP Agree To Extend Tax Cuts The dollar was generally weaker Tuesday morning, even after a meeting of European finance ministers produced no new measures to deal with the EU's deepening credit crisis. The long-term US fiscal outlook has gotten murkier, with the White House striking a deal with Congressional Republicans to extend Bush-era tax cuts in return for the extension of unemployment benefits. While some have called on the US to reduce spending and raise tax to deal with budget shortfalls, neither party seems truly inclined to cut spending or raise revenues. The dollar slipped to $1.3375 versus the euro, down about a penny from yesterday's level. The buck has been unable to sustain gains from earlier in December, when its hit a 2-month peak near $1.2970. European finance ministers approved an aid package for Ireland this morning, and said a fund to backstop euro-area debt is sufficient to deal with any contagions effects from Spanish and Portuguesedebt. Ireland will unveil its sweeping austerity budget after a vote in Parliament today. The 2011 budget is expected to cut €6-billion. Against the sterling, the dollar dropped to a 2-week low of $1.5821. The dollar hit a 3-week low of Y82.33 versus the yen, edging near a recent 15-year low of 80.22. The Bank of Canada will make its latest interest rate decision this morning. The dollar was little changed just above parity against the loonie ahead of the rate call. On the economic front in the US, the Federal Reserve will release its monthly consumer credit report for October at 3.00 p.m. ET. Economists expect the Consumer credit report to show the outstanding consumer credit to decline by $2.3 billion. In other major economic news, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to maintain its key lending rate unchanged at 4.75% as expected |
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bsiong
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08-Dec-2010 08:24
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Closing Gold & Silver Market Report – 12/7/2010December 7, 2010At 4PM (CST) the APMEX precious metals prices were:
COMMENTARY: The United States dollar rebounded sharply today after proposed tax cuts. Gold has tumbled in afternoon trading after the short-term U.S. economy received positive numbers. Job openings reach a two-year high giving analysts a sign for an upturned economy. All positive domestic news seems to be clouded by disparaging global news. Europe’s debt problems pose a grim reality for worldwide markets. Precious metals investing continues to grow globally. Here are some popular silver products. Gold price is down $14.30 – Silver spot price is down $1.07 – Platinum price is down $22.70 – Palladium spot price is down $19.80 |
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bsiong
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07-Dec-2010 22:38
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Morning Gold & Silver Market Report – 12/7/2010December 7, 2010At 8AM (CST) the APMEX precious metals prices were:
COMMENTARY: Emphasizing compromise over gridlock, President Obama announced a tax cut for all Americans and renewal of unemployment benefits. This was a leading factor in the drop of the dollar against other currencies including the euro which climbed 0.7%. Commodities seem to be popular at the moment. February gold futures are up $11.40. Some believe the current bull market in commodities may end soon, but a manager of the world’s largest currency-exchange firm says gold will handle the pullback better than most. Gold price is up $13.10 – Silver spot price is up $0.90 – Platinum price is up $12.40 – Palladium spot price is up $18.10 |
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