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krisluke
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03-Jul-2013 16:57
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The big news today is that Portugal is crashing.
  The resignation of the country's Finance Minister, due to his disinclination to continue pursuing austerity, is causing stocks to fall there by 6%. And that news is reverberating across the Eurozone. Spain's IBEX, the market of its closest neighbor, is down 2.7%. Greek stocks are down 1.8%. Italian stocks are down 2.1%. Germany is down 1.8%. You get the idea. This, as always, remains the biggest risk for Europe, that even if there's some slight improvement in the economy, that the real world would become so intolerably bad that the political will for the ongoing structure gives out. That's what's happening, it seems, in Portugal. |
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krisluke
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03-Jul-2013 16:53
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Britain's FTSE falls after China data, Portugal crisis unnerve investors
The London Stock Exchange logo is seen outside the exchange
  * Weak China data hits mining and construction stocks   * Banks weigh as Portugal faces political crisis   * Egypt turmoil further dents sentiment   By Francesco Canepa   LONDON, July 3 (Reuters) - Britain's blue chip share index fell early on Wednesday as lacklustre Chinese economic data and a political crisis in Portugal cast a shadow.   The FTSE 100 was down 101.4 points, or 1.6 percent, at 6,202.51 points at 0753 GMT.   Construction materials and mining stocks were among the biggest losers as data highlighted a slowdown in construction activity in China, the world's largest consumer of metals and a driver of global economic growth.   " There's more we need to see out of China before we feel we can buy any commodity stocks," said Dan Reed, head of contract-for-difference trading at Beaufort Securities. " I've been shorting the FTSE since about the 6,300 level."   Short sellers borrow a security and sell it, betting they will be able to buy it back at a lower price before returning it to the lender, pocketing the difference.   Reed said he was awaiting decisions from central banks in Britain and the euro zone, as well as jobs data from the United States later this week before taking any long-term positions on the FTSE.   Financial stocks knocked 30 points off the FTSE as a political crisis in Portugal threatened to derail Lisbon's exit from an international bailout programme and to reignite a crisis in the euro zone sovereign debt market.   Appetite for shares was further dented by concerns that turmoil in Egypt could destabilise the Middle East. That hit energy companies such as BG Group, which has operations in the region and fell 2 percent.   Africa-focused oil explorer and producer Tullow Oil outperformed its peers, rising 2.8 percent to the top of the FTSE after announcing a " very successful" exploration programme in Kenya. (Editing by Susan Fenton) |
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krisluke
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03-Jul-2013 16:51
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Mursi, Egypt army pledge lives in " Final Hours" showdown
Protesters opposing Egyptian President Mohamed Mursi shout slogans near a banner with pictures of Muslim Brotherhood members during a demonstration in front of the Presidential Palace " Qasr Al Quba" i
  * Paper says he will step down, suggest army roadmap   * Army commander issues bellicose statement, ready to die (Updates with newspaper, denial)   By Yasmine Saleh and Alastair Macdonald   CAIRO, July 3 (Reuters) - Egypt's army commander and Islamist President Mohamed Mursi each pledged his life to defy the other as a deadline approached on Wednesday that will trigger a military takeover backed by protesters.   The military chiefs, wanting to restore order in a country racked by protests over Mursi's Islamist policies, issued a call to battle in a statement headlined " The Final Hours" . They said they were willing to shed blood against " terrorists and fools" after Mursi refused to give up his elected office.   Mursi said, " The price ... is my life."   A report in Egypt's state-run Al-Ahram newspaper said it expected Mursi to either step down or be removed from office and that the army would set up a three-member presidential council to be chaired by the head of the Supreme Constitutional Court.   A military source denied several local press reports on the details of the army's " political roadmap" to resolve the standoff and said he expected the army to first call political, social and economic figures for talks to decide what to do next.   As a mass of revellers on Cairo's Tahrir Square feted the army for saving the revolutionary democracy won there two years ago, supporters of the president's Muslim Brotherhood denounced a " military coup" . Some clashed with security forces at Cairo University, where 16 people were killed and about 200 wounded.   Military sources earlier told Reuters the army had drafted a plan to sideline Mursi and suspend the constitution after a 5 p.m. (1500 GMT) deadline passes.   Coordinated with political leaders, an interim council would rule pending new elections. The sources would not say what was planned for an uncooperative president.   Facing the expiry of a 48-hour ultimatum set by the head of the armed forces that he should agree a power-sharing deal with his rivals, Mursi broadcast a defiant, if somewhat rambling, address to the nation to defend his " legitimacy" - a word he used repeatedly in the course of 45 minutes.   Liberal opposition leaders, who have vowed not to negotiate with Mursi since the ultimatum was issued, immediately denounced his refusal to go as a declaration of " civil war" .   The youth movement that organised the mass protests urged the Republican Guard to arrest Mursi immediately and present him for trial. (Reporting by Asma Alsharif, Alexander Dziadosz, Shaimaa Fayed, Maggie Fick, Alastair Macdonald, Shadia Nasralla, Tom Perry, Yasmine Saleh, Paul Taylor, Ahmed Tolba and Patrick Werr in Cairo, Abdelrahman Youssef in Alexandria, Yursi Mohamed in Ismailia and Phil Stewart in Washington Writing by Paul Taylor, Alastair Macdonald and Elizabeth Piper Editing by Alison Williams) |
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krisluke
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03-Jul-2013 16:50
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SE Asia Stocks-Indonesia underperforms Malaysia pares early gain
BANGKOK, July 3 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stocks mostly
fell on Wednesday, with Indonesia dropping more than 2 percent on concerns over the prospect of domestic economy and interest rates, while late selling erased early gains in Malaysia. Jakarta's Composite Index was an underperformer, trading down 2.8 percent by 0812 GMT, extending Tuesday's 0.8 percent loss after the World Bank lowered its forecast for economic growth in Indonesia this year. Analysts also attributed the selling to expectations that Indonesia's central bank would raise the benchmark rate on July 11 to cope with higher inflationary pressure following the government's fuel price hike. Cement stocks, seen among proxy of Southeast Asia's biggest economy, led among losers, with shares in the biggest cement maker PT Semen Indonesia Tbk slipping 5 percent. Investors sold property developers such as PT Kawasan Industri Jababeka after industrial park sales in the first quarter dropped 68 percent year-on-year, said Steven Gunawan, property analyst at Batavia Prosperindo Securities. " This is seasonal and also because the sales on last year first quarter was high. There are also limited negative sentiment on higher Bank Indonesia rate expectation, which will be announced next week," he said. Elsewhere, stocks in Singapore fell 1.3 percent, taking its year to date loss to 1.1 percent, Southeast Asia's underperformer this year. Thai shares was down 1.3 percent while Vietnamese stocks eased 0.5 percent. Banking shares such as Malayan Banking Bhd and AMMB Holdings Bhd outperformed in Malaysia, with the broader index trading nearly flat at 1,771.37, erasing small gains in early trading. For Asian Companies click For South East Asia Hot Stock reports, click SOUTHEAST ASIAN STOCK MARKETS Change at 0812 GMT Market Current Prev Close Pct Move TR SE Asia Index* 423.96 430.95 -1.62 Singapore 3132.65 3173.32 -1.28 Kuala Lumpur 1772.12 1771.89 +0.01 Bangkok 1444.82 1463.98 -1.31 Jakarta 4597.05 4728.70 -2.78 Manila 4680.12 6448.18 +0.50 Ho Chi Minh 487.35 489.84 -0.51 |
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krisluke
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03-Jul-2013 16:49
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Asia shipping industry pain may be investors' gain
By Keith Wallis
  SINGAPORE, July 3 (Reuters) - U.S. private equity and investment funds are betting Asia's shipping industry, hit by a restructuring wave that has already swept Europe and the United States, is the best spot to ride a recovery from the industry's worst downturn in three decades.   Sturdy commodity demand growth and slower new ship deliveries will help balance fleet and cargo demand for the first time since 2004, analysts say, boosting freight rates by next year and into 2015.   For private equity looking to buy into the upturn, Asian shipping firms undergoing restructuring like South Korea's STX Pan Ocean Co Ltd and Indonesia's Berlian Laju Tanker Tbk PT offer opportunities. The ships investors are looking for are also being built in the region's yards.   More than $3.5 billion has been invested in ships and shipping containers so far this year, according to figures compiled by Marine Money, compared with $2.7 billion in 2012 and $4.2 billion in 2011.   " My guess is that unless the public markets open quickly there will be at least twice as much private equity commitment to the industry by the end of 2014," billionaire private equity investor Wilbur Ross said at a ship finance conference in New York in June.   Joseph Swanson, managing director of U.S.-based investment bank and restructuring firm Houlihan Lokey, said his company is advising on everything from ship acquisitions to complex restructurings of fleet operators. Some of the projects are in Asia but he declined to give further details, citing client confidentiality.   The shipping industry splurged on new ships in 2007-08 that were delivered just as demand slumped, particularly on once-lucrative oil export routes between the Middle East and Asia.   The spree sent charter rates down as much as 90 percent and halved the value of vessels bought at the top of the market, according to data from maritime consultancy Clarkson Research Services. The list of Asian shipping firms seeking rescue is lengthening.   STX Pan Ocean, which got court approval to restructure on June 17, is the biggest shipping failure in Asia. It had total debt of $4.94 billion as of the first quarter of 2013, its main creditor has said.   " Anybody who owned a ship for three or four years and still owns it is a candidate for restructuring," said Paul Leand Jr., chief executive of AMA Capital Partners, a New York-based maritime merchant bank.   " People are running out of money to pay operating costs and interest."   With European banks facing stricter capital requirements at home, traditional ship financing is harder than ever to obtain, further boosting the allure of private equity investment.   Bank lending to the shipping industry via syndicated loans at $52 billion last year was nearly half the $91.8 billion in 2008, just before the financial crisis, according to figures from Dealogic and Marine Money.   RAFT OF DEALS   The interest from private equity is being driven by expectations that the shipping industry will finally pull out of a prolonged slump.   Barclays Bank estimated in a June report that the volume of seaborne dry cargo will start to outpace fleet growth by next year, increasing by 6.3 percent against a 3.8 percent uptick in vessel supply.   The price of new dry bulk and container ships has risen by up to 2.5 percent in the last three months, according to Clarkson data, after falling since 2010. Over the same three month period, prices for secondhand dry cargo ships have climbed by up to 18 percent.   " Lots of funds are running around and ordering new ships or at least trying to," said Tim Huxley, chief executive of Hong Kong-based shipowner Wah Kwong Maritime Transport.   " It will need patience as there won't be an overnight bounce back, but its got plenty of potential if you partner up with the right people."   US private equity firm Alterna Capital Partners ordered four tankers costing a total of $130 million in June from South Korea's Hyundai Mipo Dockyard ship brokers in a continuing investment in the tanker sector. Managing partner Jim Furnivall declined to comment.   In May, U.S. investment group York Capital Management struck up a joint venture with Greek-owned container ship operator Costamere to spend $500 million acquiring ships.   Other deals include New York-based Oaktree Capital Management teaming up with German shipowner Rickmers to order up to 16 container ships. The vessels will be built at an undisclosed Asian shipyard for delivery by mid-2015.   Alvarez & Marsal is conducting due diligence on behalf of several private equity funds looking at investments in Asia, according to Ray Dombrowski, a managing director at the corporate advisory firm in New York.   The funds are looking at as many as 20 ships in the dry bulk and tanker sector that have been ordered but are not yet under construction at shipyards in China, South Korea and Japan, he added.   " They believe the ships that are being built are more economic, with more efficient engines, so the cost of operating them will be significantly lower," Dombrowski said.   " They are large U.S.-based but global funds who want to be well-positioned when the recovery in the shipping market picks up in earnest." |
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krisluke
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03-Jul-2013 16:47
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Gold inches up on thin trade as stocks ease
Gold bullion on a chart
* Gold hasn't hit bottom yet - Jim Rogers * Asian shares drop after China data (Adds comments from Jim Rogers, updates prices) By A. Ananthalakshmi SINGAPORE, July 3 (Reuters) - Gold edged higher in thin trade on Wednesday as Asian stocks eased and following comments by two U.S. Federal Reserve officials that the central bank's economic stimulus could continue for some time. But investor sentiment remained dour as outflows from exchange-traded funds continued and demand failed to pick up even though prices remain near three-year lows, indicating the market is expecting further declines. Gold, typically seen as a hedge against inflation, posted its biggest ever quarterly loss of almost 23 percent for the April-June period on fears the Fed would end its $85 billion monthly bond purchases. " I am not convinced this is the bottom," well-known commodity investor Jim Rogers said at an event in Singapore. " Where that bottom will be I have no idea. Perhaps it will be $900-$1,000." That would be a near 50 percent drop from gold's all-time high of $1,920.30 seen in September 2011, when the metal was boosted by stimulus measures by central banks around the world. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said last month the U.S. economy was recovering strongly enough for the bank to begin tapering its stimulus in the next few months, and possibly end the programme in mid-2014. However, the exact timing of the tapering is still not clear. Markets are awaiting U.S. nonfarm jobs data later this week for clues on the strength of the world's biggest economy. Two senior Fed official said on Tuesday that the bank's monetary policy to support the economy will likely be warranted for some time to come. Spot gold rose 0.23 percent to $1,244.30 an ounce by 0638 GMT, while U.S. gold was little changed at $1,243.90. " There was some buying when Shanghai opened but not much after that," said Yuichi Ikemizu, a branch manager for Standard Bank in Tokyo. " People are adjusting their positions before the U.S. holiday on Thursday." U.S. markets are shut on Thursday for the Independence Day holiday. Bullion saw some gains earlier this week on short covering and bargain hunting, after prices plumbed a three-year low of $1,180.71 on Friday. " We don't know if the rebound will last," said Ronald Leung, chief dealer at Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong. " Investors are more bearish than bullish. ETF outflows are putting pressure on gold prices." SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.37 percent to 964.69 tonnes on Tuesday, hitting fresh four-year lows. Precious metals prices 0638 GMT Metal Last Change Pct chg YTD pct chg Volume Spot Gold 1244.30 2.91 +0.23 -25.69 Spot Silver 19.47 0.12 +0.62 -35.70 Spot Platinum 1360.49 -3.05 -0.22 -11.37 Spot Palladium 684.47 0.81 +0.12 -1.09 COMEX GOLD AUG3 1243.90 0.50 +0.04 -25.77 19694 COMEX SILVER SEP3 19.47 0.16 +0.81 -35.77 Euro/Dollar 1.2976 Dollar/Yen 100.76 COMEX gold and silver contracts show the most active months (Editing by Tom Hogue) |
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krisluke
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03-Jul-2013 16:46
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Hong Kong shares sink 2.5 percent in worst day in 2 weeks
Hong Kong night skyline
  The Hang Seng Index ended down 2.5 percent at 20,147.3 points. The China Enterprises Index of the top Chinese listings in Hong Kong dived 3.3 percent. For both, this was their worst daily loss since June 20.   Two surveys showing a subdued Chinese non-manufacturing sector discouraged investors. Slowing construction activity was cited for a weak official services PMI reading, while new orders for a similar private survey sank to a 55-month low.   Consumer counters were hit by data showing the value of Hong Kong retail sales grew in May by 12.8 percent from a year earlier, well below April's 20.7 percent growth.   ADVISORY:   * As part of broader changes to financial markets coverage, there will not be a final Hong Kong-China stocks combined daily closing report, unless the markets make major moves. |
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krisluke
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03-Jul-2013 14:21
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US oil jumps to 14-month top on stocks draw, Mideast worries
* Brent hits more than one-week peak above $105
  * U.S. crude stockpiles fall 9.4 mln bbls last week - API   * U.S. crude could hit $102.82/bbl next - technicals   * Coming up: EIA weekly oil data 1430 GMT (Adds China data, quotes, updates prices)   By Florence Tan   SINGAPORE, July 3 (Reuters) - U.S. oil surged past the $100-per-barrel mark to hit a 14-month high on Wednesday as traders bet on a sharp drop in crude inventories in top consumer the United States, while tensions in the Middle East also cushioned prices.   Fears that a turmoil in Egypt could destabilise the Middle East and disrupt oil supplies buoyed Brent crude as well, pushing it up to a more than one-week peak of $105.61 a barrel.   " Middle East tensions are always going to put a cushion under the price while there is some tight supply going on in the U.S.," Ben Le Brun, a markets analyst at OptionsXpress in Sydney said. " It's double positive news for crude."   U.S. oil was up $2.14 at $101.74 per barrel by 0525 GMT, after rising to as high as $102.18 earlier in the session. Brent rose $1.07 to $105.07.   Both benchmarks gained for a third consecutive day, drawing support from geopolitical tensions. Libyan oil output has fallen by a third after protesters shut several oilfields and anti-government demonstrations in Egypt have raised concerns about the stability of the whole region.   Traders are now priming for better U.S. jobs data due on Friday, said Yusuke Seta, a commodity sales manager at Newedge Japan. Technical charts point to higher oil prices after U.S. crude futures rose more than expected, breaking several resistance levels, he said.   " Investors are taking more risks and are getting ready for Friday's non-farm payroll," he said, adding that traders were snapping up oil ahead of a U.S. market holiday on Thursday.   Brent's premium to West Texas Intermediate crude < CL-LCO1=R> hit a low of $3.09, weakest since December 2010. The spread may narrow further on a drop in U.S. inventories.   U.S. crude inventories fell by 9.4 million barrels in the week through June 28, the American Petroleum Institute said late on Tuesday. Analysts had been expecting a drawdown of 2.3 million barrels, according to a Reuters poll.   Investors will be looking to verify this data with statistics from the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) due later on Wednesday.   Projects aimed at moving crude from the over-supplied distribution hub of Cushing, Oklahoma, to refineries in the Gulf Coast will reduce the cost of transporting crude to refiners and help close the price gap between Brent and WTI, analysts at the National Australian Bank said in a note.   But a slew of weak data from China, which has stoked worries about the outlook for demand from the world's No.2 oil consumer, may keep a lid on prices.   A survey showed that growth in China's services sector sagged to its weakest pace in nine months in June. This comes on the heels of two surveys that showed China's manufacturing growth plumbed multi-month lows in June as foreign and domestic demand waned.   " Recent indicators have pointed to a slowing Chinese economy, driven by softer industrial and export performance, and these should result in lower oil import growth," NAB analysts said.   Reuters market analyst Wang Tao said a bullish target at $102.82 per barrel has been established for U.S. crude, as it has climbed above a resistance at $100.09.   (Editing by Himani Sarkar) |
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krisluke
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03-Jul-2013 01:09
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  Dividends are likely to be highly sought after by investors, given the fact they’re an important component of long-term stock market returns and can provide a valuable secondary stream of income. But, investors who unduly focus too much on a high dividend yield might not be getting the best deal for themselves. Let’s check out the three stocks listed in the table below to see why that’s so.
What it was like back on 30 June 2007 Telecommunications operator SingTel paid out an annual dividend of S$0.205 for its last completed financial year for an investor looking at the company on 30 June 2007, giving the company’s shares a yield of 6% then. That’s a high yield, given that the Straits Times Index (SGX: ^STI) was yielding an average of 3.7% back in 2007. In contrast, the dividends coming from instant beverage manufacturer Super Group and conglomerate Jardine Matheson Holdings would not have been so attractive, given their relatively tiny yields of 1.6% and 2.1%. But, for an investor who invested in all three companies on 30 June 2007, the dividend yields on their original cost basis, or yield-on-cost, would have shrunk for SingTel and grown much higher for Super Group and JMH as shown in the table above. 6 years later, much has changed for those dividends Super Group and JMH’s dividends grew much larger in those six years, in contrast to SingTel’s smaller dividends. What was once relatively unattractive is now providing much better dividend returns for long-term investors.
Foolish Bottom Line High dividend yields are attractive, no doubt. But, investors might leave a huge chunk of future-returns on the table if a high current-yield was their only focus, which explains the importance of a growing dividend. After a decade or two, those growing dividend paychecks might be far more lucrative than stagnant, but currently-high-yielding-ones. American billionaire investor Warren Buffett’s investment in soda-maker Coca-Cola is a great example of how lucrative growing dividends can be over the long-term. Coke was giving Buffett a dividend yield of around 4% when he made his first investments in the company in 1988. But now, it is giving him a staggering – get this – 50% yield on his original cost basis! Buffett’s focus was certainly not on haggling over a high yield. Instead, he focused on the potential for long-term dividend growth from the company. And, there’s no reason why we shouldn’t be doing this either. |
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krisluke
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03-Jul-2013 01:06
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There’s a saying that goes, “Sell in May and Go Away”. It dictates that selling in May and coming back in November protects your portfolio from losses during the volatile period.
Those who sold in May and went away must be laughing at those who detractors who stayed invested throughout. By selling and going away, one would have escaped the 9.6% drop in the STI. On the other hand, this group of people might also miss out on any sudden rally back to 3454 points and beyond. The difficult part is deciding when to re-enter the market after selling and going away. If you re-enter too early, you might see more losses to your portfolio. If you re-enter too late, you might miss out on a great rally. Therefore, the best solution, I feel, is to stay invested throughout, without taking the hassle to time the market. I do not pay attention to short-term market movements. In June, I didn’t sell my shares and I certainly didn’t go away. Short-term fluctuations are the best friend of a long-term investor, providing an opportunity to buy into shares at a lower price. The dizzying haze situation did not help the sombre mood set by Ben Bernanke in the US either. Hospitality and tourism businesses like CDL Hospitality Trust (SGX: J85), Ascendas Hospitality Trust (SGX: Q1P) and Far East Hospitality Trust (SGX: Q5T) were whacked left, right and centre. Businesses that have nothing to do with the cutting back of monetary stimulus or the haze got hammered as well. Super Group Limited (SGX: S10) was down 22.9% at one point, dropping more than the market. This is a perfect example of the folly of Mr. Market. It is unlikely that money-printing or prolonged haze make people drink lesser coffee. |
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krisluke
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03-Jul-2013 01:03
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US oil jumps to $99 on Middle East worry, spread trade
* U.S. crude hits 9-month high
  * U.S. September-October crude spread widens to record high   * Brent-WTI spread falls to narrowest since January 2011   * Coming up: API weekly oil data 2030 GMT (Updates prices, changes byline, dateline (pvs LONDON)   By Anna Louie Sussman   NEW YORK, July 2 (Reuters) - U.S. crude jumped on Tuesday, hitting a nine-month high above $99 a barrel, as turmoil in the Middle East unsettled investors while signs of tightening supply in the U.S. Midwest strengthened prompt U.S. crude prices relative to other contracts.   The spread between European Brent and U.S. WTI crude for September narrowed to near $4 a barrel, the lowest since early 2011, as some traders rushed to cover short bets. Goldman Sachs closed its trade recommendation after the spread collapsed from over $23 in February to its target of $5.   U.S. inter-month spreads stretched to the highest in years, with the Sept/Oct WTI spread < CLU3-V3> jumping to a record high of $1.24, up from just 34 cents a barrel last week.   The dramatic strengthening at the front end of the U.S. crude oil curve has been tied to the restart last month of BP's revamped 413,000 barrel-per-day Whiting refinery, which is expected to help absorb more Canadian crude oil supplies that might otherwise fill up tanks at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for the U.S. oil futures contract.   " It reflects expectations that (supplies) are going to be much tighter in the third quarter," said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut.   " Refinery runs are very high, and they've got room to run higher."   Oil also got a boost from turmoil in the strife-ridden Middle East, where Libyan oil output has fallen by a third after protesters shut several oilfields and anti-government demonstrations in Egypt have raised concerns about the stability of the whole region.   Brent crude futures for August delivery were up 58 cents at $103.58 a barrel by 12:03 p.m. EDT (1603 GMT) after rising 0.8 percent the previous day.   U.S. crude futures for August were 96 cents higher at $98.95 per barrel after earlier hitting $99.17, its highest since Sept. 2012.   Traders and brokers also said that market players who were short September versus October were getting squeezed.   " Right now there are a large number of market participants who play the short spread trade getting squeezed on September WTI. This move in Brent-WTI caught a lot of people unaware," said a hedge fund manager active in the energy space.   New pipeline and rail capacity has come online in recent months to alleviate the glut of crude at Cushing that has built up as more production from U.S. shale and Canadian oil sands comes into the region, and many players expect drawdowns at the oil hub to grow, supporting U.S. oil prices relative to Brent.   " Over 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of global refinery capacity will return by late July on top of the 2.5 million bpd that has returned over the past four weeks, providing ample opportunity for runs to rise," Morgan Stanley said in a note.   Prices were also supported by data on Monday from the Institute for Supply Management that showed U.S. manufacturing activity grew in June and a bullish U.S. equity market.   (Additional reporting by Robert Campbell in New York, Simon Falush in London and Florence Tan in Singapore Editing by Jonathan Leff and David Gregorio) |
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krisluke
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01-Jul-2013 11:42
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Just like that, half the year is over. But boy did it finish with a flourish! DOW managed 14 consecutive triple digit sessions (and it isn’t over yet), the kind of volatility usually exclusive to earning season. Now that is worrying considering that we haven’t even started July’s earnings season which is reputed to be the most volatile period of the trading year. DOW wiped out two month’s gains in one week then bounce to recover some of those losses in the last week while the VIX spiked to the year’s high before retracing a little … Singapore’s STI in the red for the year at 3,150.44 after having dipped below its critical 3,100 for two sessions in the last week of July … Shanghai had its worst drop since 2009 and is expected to worsen … Japan closed the month officially in a Bear Market … Bond yields in the U.S. spiked to multi-year highs … Gold sold off to $1,234/oz, the lowest close since 24 August, 2010. The only bright spot in an otherwise bleak month was the 50th Paris Air Show where Airbus and Boeing along accounted for more than $130bln worth of sales. Its good to know that amidst all the worries, one industry is still flush with cash. MARKET MATTERS DOW closed out June below its 10, 20 and 50 DSMAs with the 20 completing its Death Cross below the 50 DSMA. Daily candles reveal a Short Dusk Line implying more downside in the coming session. On monthly candles, the large cap index closed in a Dark Cloud which doesn’t bode well for July. NASDAQ is really divergent in its technicals – on weekly candles, the tech-heavy index is hinting that the coming week should be bullish as it sports a Piercing Line on a Third Candle Reversal. On daily configurations, the NASDAQ is wearing an ugly looking Side-By-Side White Lines which implies more upside in the coming session. NASDAQ confirmed its 10/50 Death Cross and looks ready for its 20/50 Death Cross in the coming week if it fails to break above its 20DSMA. SPX completed its 20/50 Death Cross and closed in a Bearish Harami on Friday. On monthly candles, the broad-based index closed in a Dark Cloud on an Eighth Candle Reversal. This is pointing to an ominous July. July Preview July has 20 full trading sessions, one half day and a public holiday (Independence Day on 4 July). July is known for its volatility with huge swings either way. It is also the start of the third earnings season of the year when companies are known to pull back on their guidance and become conservative about their outlooks. July Trivia
Commodities
SUMMARY Now we go into Quarter Three, the worst quarter of the trading year. With China battling a cash crunch and desperately tightening its credit binge while reining in its shadow banking system, with most of Asia already in the red for the year, Europe still in the dole and America threatening to taper its bond buying and hinting at tightening monetary policy sooner rather than later, things are about to get very interesting indeed. |
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krisluke
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01-Jul-2013 11:32
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Japan land prices fall at slowest pace in 5 yrs in 2012-govt
* Average land prices -1.8 pct in 2012 vs -2.8 pct in 2011
  * All 47 prefectures show improvement in land prices   TOKYO, July 1 (Reuters) - Japan's average land prices fell 1.8 percent in the year to January but the pace of decline was the slowest in five years, underscoring a view that the market is steadily recovering.   The fall in average land prices followed a 2.8 percent drop in 2011 and a 3.1 percent decline in 2010, a survey from the National Tax Agency showed.   Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's sweeping policy mix of monetary easing by the Bank of Japan and huge fiscal spending have helped to improve business and consumer sentiment, raising hopes for the economic outlook.   With demand for housing expected to pick up before Japan's planned sales tax hike next April and with better economic prospects, land prices will likely continue to improve.   Two prefectures saw average land prices rise last year for the first time in five years and the pace of price declines in other prefectures eased.   Average land prices in northeastern Miyagi prefecture rose 1.7 percent, boosted by rebuilding efforts following the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami.   And prices in the nation's central Aichi prefecture edged up 0.1 percent, helped by stronger demand for both offices and residential property.   The rate of decline in land prices in Tokyo and its neighbouring prefectures shrank to 0.6 percent last year from a 1.5 percent fall the previous year.   Japan's highest land price, in Tokyo's Ginza shopping district, was 21.52 million yen ($218,200) per square metre last year, but that was still down 41 percent from 36.5 million yen during the real estate bubble of the early 1990s.   The tax agency surveys land prices as of Jan. 1 every year to calculate inheritance and gift taxes on properties.   Japan's economy has been picking up this year and expanded at an annualised rate of 4.1 percent in the first quarter, led by private consumption and a rebound in exports. |
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krisluke
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01-Jul-2013 11:31
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Stocks sag on Fed policy worries, China PMIs
Graph with stacks of Australian dollars
  * Worries about Fed exit plan back at fore after Fed official comments   * China HSBC June manufacturing PMI hits 9-mth low, official PMI slips   By Masayuki Kitano and Ian Chua   SINGAPORE/SYDNEY, July 1 (Reuters) - Asian equities edged lower on Monday, hurt by worries that the U.S. Federal Reserve could start scaling back its massive monetary stimulus in September and signs of an economic slowdown in China.   MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.5 percent, having last week posted a 2.8 percent rally, its biggest weekly gain since September 2012. The index, though, ended the first half of the year down 7.3 percent.   The MSCI index has retreated since hitting a 21-month high in early May, as investors began to fret that the U.S. central bank might start tapering its massive bond-buying later this year and lead to a slowdown in inflows into Asian assets.   " I don't think this corrective mode will end immediately," said Satoshi Okagawa, senior global markets analyst for Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation in Singapore.   Besides the growing speculation about a possible scaling back of the Fed's quantitative easing, worries about Chinese economy's outlook may weigh on Asian equities in the near-term, Okagawa said.   China's factory activity reached its lowest in nine months in June as new orders fell despite price cuts by producers, a private survey showed on Monday, reinforcing signs of an economic slowdown in the second quarter.   The HSBC/Markit Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June retreated to 48.2, the lowest level since September 2012 and down from May's final reading of 49.2.   A separate PMI survey released by China's government statistics office earlier on Monday was less dour. Its index slipped to 50.1 in June from 50.8 in May, but came in above the median market forecast of 50.0.   Tokyo's Nikkei share average slipped 0.5 percent, after having climbed 3.4 percent last week. The Nikkei, however, is still up more than 30 percent since the end of last year.   Optimism that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's aggressive stimulus push will lift the economy has helped light a fire under the Nikkei.   Data on Monday suggested Abe's plans are on track with a survey showing the mood of Japanese manufacturers turning positive for the first time in nearly two years.   Monday's market moves followed a subdued finish on Wall Street after Fed Governor Jeremy Stein suggested that September could be an opportune time for the central bank to consider scaling back its massive asset-purchase programme.   Stein's remarks, echoed by President of the Richmond Fed, Jeffrey Lacker, undid some of the calm that spread through markets last week after several other officials sought to play down market fears of the Fed's plan to taper stimulus.   Critical for markets this week is the U.S. jobs data due on Friday, given it is a key measures the Fed will consider before deciding to start withdrawing stimulus.   In currency markets, the dollar held near a one-month high against a basket of major currencies. The dollar index stood at 83.157, not far from Friday's high of 83.344, its highest level since early June.   Against the yen, the dollar hit a one-month high of 99.55 yen, and was last up 0.2 percent on the day at 99.31 yen.   The Australian dollar touched a near three-year low against the U.S. dollar earlier on Monday, but later regained a bit of ground, getting some support after China's official PMI was less dire than expected.   The Australian dollar rose 0.4 percent to $0.9172. Earlier, it fell to $0.9110, its lowest level since September 2010.   Spot gold was up around 0.5 percent at $1,239.31 per ounce, still not far off a near three-year trough of $1.180.71 plumbed on Friday. Worries about the end of the Fed's stimulus had contributed to the panic selling of the precious metal.   U.S. crude fell 0.4 percent at $96.16 a barrel. |
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krisluke
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01-Jul-2013 10:15
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Stocks soggy as Fed tapering worries linger, China eyed
A trader looks at his screen on the IG Group trading floor in London
  * Worries about Fed exit plan back at fore after Fed official comments   * China manufacturing data next in focus   By Ian Chua   SYDNEY, July 1 (Reuters) - Asian stocks got off to an uninspired start on Monday, while the U.S. dollar held firm at one-month highs after an influential Federal Reserve official suggested September could be the beginning of the end of easy money from the central bank.   MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.3 percent, having last week posted a 2.8 percent rally, its biggest weekly gain since September 2012. The index, though, ended the first half of the year down 7.3 percent.   Tokyo's Nikkei also slipped 0.1 percent, having climbed 3.5 percent last week to end the first half up a handsome 31.5 percent.   " We had a big rebound in the Nikkei last Friday, so we may see some profit-taking. I think there was some window dressing last Friday as it was month-end and quarter-end," said Takashi Hiroki, chief strategist at Monex Inc.   Optimism that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's aggressive stimulus push will lift the economy has helped light a fire under the Nikkei.   Data on Monday suggested Abe's plans are on track with a survey showing the mood of Japanese manufacturers turning positive for the first time in nearly two years.   Monday's market moves followed a subdued finish on Wall Street after Fed Governor Jeremy Stein suggested that September could be an opportune time for the central bank to consider scaling back its massive asset-purchase programme.   Stein's remarks, aechoed by President of the Richmond Fed, Jeffrey Lacker, undid some of the calm that spread through markets last week after several other officials sought to play down market fears of the Fed's plan to taper stimulus.   Critical for markets this week is the U.S. jobs data due on Friday, given it is a key measures the Fed will consider before deciding to start withdrawing stimulus.   In the meantime, markets will take their cue from a report on China's vast manufacturing sector due around 0100 GMT.   Any disappointment will no doubt renew worries about the world's second biggest economy just as markets are getting over the impact of a recent credit crunch.   In currency markets, investors reacted to Stein's comments by bidding up the U.S. dollar, which hit a one-month high against a basket of major currencies. It remained near the peak early on Monday.   The euro traded at $1.3016, having slipped 0.2 percent on Friday, while the greenback reached fresh one-month highs of 94.55 yen.   Among the biggest losers was the Australian dollar, which hit a fresh 33-month low of $0.9110, following Friday's 1.5 percent drop.   Partly weighing on the Aussie was a recent dramatic selloff in gold, a major export earner for Australia. While bullion jumped more than 2 percent on Friday, it still suffered its biggest quarterly drop in 45 years.   Spot gold was up around 0.5 percent at $1,239 per ounce in early trade, still not far off a near three-year trough of $1.180.71 plumbed on Friday. Worries about the end of the Fed's stimulus had contributed to the panic selling of the precious metal.   Other commodities got off to a sleepy start with U.S. crude down 0.4 percent at $96.22 a barrel, while copper edged up 0.2 percent to $6,766 a tonne. |
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krisluke
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01-Jul-2013 10:13
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China HSBC PMI slips to 9-month low of 48.2 in June
BEIJING, July 1 (Reuters) - China's factory activity shrank for a second straight month in June and reached its lowest in nine months as new orders fell despite price cuts by producers, a private survey showed on Monday, reinforcing signs of economic slowdown in the second quarter.
  The HSBC/Markit Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June retreated to 48.2, the lowest level since September 2012 and down from May's final reading of 49.2. It was in line with a preliminary reading of 48.3 released on June 20.   A reading below 50 indicates a contraction of activities while one above shows expansion.   " Falling orders and rising inventories added pressure to Chinese manufacturers in June," said Hongbin Qu, China chief economist at HSBC.   In his view, the new quarter will be challenging too.   " The recent cash crunch in the interbank market is likely to slow expansion of off-balance sheet lending, further exacerbating funding conditions for SMEs. As Beijing refrains from using stimulus, the ongoing growth slowdown is likely to continue in the coming months," Qu said.   A separate PMI survey released by the government's statistics office earlier on Monday was less dour. It showed the index slipping to 50.1 in June from 50.8 in May, but still holding above the 50-point threshold that indicates growth.   A sub-index measuring new orders declined to 47.6 in June, a second-month contraction following May's 48.7 and the lowest since October.   New orders from abroad shrank in June for the third month in a row and at a rate that was the fastest since September as foreign clients, particularly those in Europe and the United States, cut demand for Chinese goods even after China's producers passed on savings from lower material costs and discounted charges, HSBC said.   The weakening new orders led to a rising stock of finished goods, for the fourth month in a row in June, with around 11 percent of respondents noting a rise in inventory and only 8 percent signalling a reduction.   The output sub-index contracted in June for the first time since October and factories shed jobs at the quickest pace since August, according to the survey.   On July 15, China is scheduled to release data on economic activities in June and announce how much gross domestic product (GDP) grew in the second quarter. Many investors expect confirmation of their worries that the world's No 2 economy further slowed from January-March's annual pace of 7.7 percent.   Problems stemming from a cash crunch in June could increase worries about the July-September quarter.   But cash rates eased and investors regained confidence about improving credit conditions last week after the central bank said it would ensure policy supported a slowing economy.   Before that, the People's Bank of China let short-term borrowing costs spike to record highs to drive home a message to banks that they could no longer count on cheap cash to fund riskier operations |
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krisluke
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01-Jul-2013 10:12
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S.Korea shares fall on U.S. stimulus caution, Celltrion spikes
* Seoul shares snap 3-session winning streak
  * Celltrion jumps after winning European backing to sell a copycat drug   * CJ Group shares weak amid concerns over group chairman arrest   SEOUL, July 1 (Reuters) - South Korea shares fell on Monday after hitting a 1-week closing high in previous session, with investors treading cautiously after Wall Street lost ground on persistent concerns that U.S. stimulus will be trimmed back soon.   The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) was down 0.3 percent at 1,857.32 points as of 0114 GMT, trimming its opening losses of 0.63 percent but snapping a three-session winning streak.   " The market is taking a breather after a brief technical rebound last week," said Lee Jae-hoon, a market analyst at Mirae Asset Securities.   Lee said the KOSPI has firm support at 1,780 points, where the market's price to book value ratio is around 1.   A raft of key data due out this week from both the Unites States and China will be closely followed, as investors try to gauge the state of global economy.   Data early on Monday showing that South Korea's exports to its three key markets rose in June from a year earlier, helping stocks to halve its opening losses.   But reports later in the morning showed factory activity in key customer China continued to slow.   Foreign investors turned net sellers offloading a modest 8.4 billion won ($7.36 million) after two straight buying sessions on Friday.   Decliners marginally outnumbered gainers 374 to 344.   Celltrion shares jumped by the daily permissible limit of 15 percent on Monday after winning European backing to sell a copycat version of the blockbuster rheumatoid arthritis drug Remicade.   But CJ Group shares eased as its group chairman awaits decision by the South Korean court on whether he will be formally arrested over charges of tax evasion and embezzlement.   CJ Corp shares fell 1.3 percent and CJ Cheiljedang Corp declined 1.9 percent.   Shipping shares rallied after Baltic dry index, which measures the cost of shipping key commodities, rose 1.7 percent.   Hanjin Shipping Co Ltd shares rose 3.5 percent and STX Pan Ocean Co Ltd advanced 3.2 percent.   But falls in market's key heavyweights weighed, as Samsung Electronics, the largest component on the main KOSPI, shed 1.1 percent and Hyundai Motor, the second largest, lost 1.1 percent.   The KOSPI 200 benchmark of core stocks was down 0.6 percent, while the junior KOSDAQ traded 1.5 percent higher. ($1 = 1142.0500 Korean won) (Reporting by Jungyoun Park Editing by Kim Coghill) |
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krisluke
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26-Jun-2013 14:52
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krisluke
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26-Jun-2013 14:49
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krisluke
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26-Jun-2013 14:46
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