| Latest Forum Topics / Golden Agri |
 Post Reply
|
|
Rising palm oil prices
|
||
|
zhuge_liang
Supreme |
12-Jul-2007 13:15
|
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Worth picking up this counter. Set to follow Wilmar upwards. | |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
|
heatseeker
Member |
03-Jul-2007 21:41
|
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Good... cheong ah!!!
|
|
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
|
|
||
|
lpkoh5
Senior |
03-Jul-2007 11:29
|
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Golden Agri-Resources Ltd: In a sweet spot for strong growth Summary: Demand for CPO worldwide is increasing and CPO prices are now close to record highs. This was buoyed by under-cultivation in the past, and as a result of this, supply is lagging demand. Golden Agri-Resources (GAR) is one of the world's largest oil palm planters and producers of CPO, producing over 1.5m tons in FY06. It has approximately 338,000 ha of planted area (including plasma), with a mature area of 293,000 ha (including plasma). This makes it the largest owner of mature planted area among its peers. In addition, the age profile of GAR's trees favourably positions it to capture the upside in CPO prices. With the rising demand from China, consumption of refined vegetable oil products will also increase. We believe that with all the above positive factors, GAR is in a sweet spot to capitalize on strong demand and high CPO prices. While the stock has already appreciated 113% this year, we believe that the outlook remains rosy for GAR. We are initiating coverage on GAR with a BUY rating and a fair value estimate of S$3.22, or a 25% potential upside from the last closing price of S$2.57. (Carmen Lee & Research Team) 
|
|
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
|
speed000
Member |
28-Jun-2007 00:04
|
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Q2 will be another better result as in Q1 compared with 2006, good vest reward at above $3. cheerss 
|
|
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
|
heatseeker
Member |
27-Jun-2007 20:26
|
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Thks to all for the info. My thots are this is a good ctr; will be holding till above $3. In fact, may be good to average down now...
|
|
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
|
|
||
|
bensonho
Member |
27-Jun-2007 19:59
|
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
do sharejunction member monitor this counter,normally at this price 2.56 level,it would rebound back slowing to 2.70 | |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
|
Nostradamus
Supreme |
18-Jun-2007 16:44
|
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Indonesian CPO export tax is upped from 1.5% to 6.5% while export tax for crude olein, refined, bleached and deodorised (RBD) olein is lifted from 0.3% to 6.5%. This also applies to crude stearin, palm kernel oil (PKO), RBD PKO and RBD stearin, whose export tax is raised from 0% to 6.5%.
At the current base CPO price of US$525 per tonne, CGK estimate the higher export tax will translate into additional costs of US$26.5 per tonne of CPO. They have cut their EPS estimates for Golden Agri by 3-6% for FY07-09 to account for the additional costs.
They have lowered their target price to $3.40 from $3.60 to account for our earnings downgrade.
Key re-rating catalysts are rising CPO price, strong FFB production, M&A possibilities, progress in plans to develop 1.1m ha of estates with CNOOC and improved corporate governance.
Looks like GAR will be capped at $3 for now. |
|
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
|
lpkoh5
Senior |
07-Jun-2007 20:03
|
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Give it some time...it a matter of time before it cheong over $3 
|
|
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
|
|
||
|
heatseeker
Member |
07-Jun-2007 16:04
|
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Can someone explain why Golden Agri fell despite +ve coverage? I thot it shld cheong above $3
|
|
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
|
Eagles
Member |
07-Jun-2007 09:43
|
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Golden is a market leader in an attractive bsuiness, hence my optimism earlier.
But do watch the hgh revaluation gains registered in FY06 results..hope the real business profit will be good without the one time gains recorded last year. 
|
|
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
|
lpkoh5
Senior |
04-Jun-2007 10:02
|
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
CIMB
|
|
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
|
lpkoh5
Senior |
28-May-2007 09:40
|
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
$3 here I come !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
|
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
|
|
||
|
lpkoh5
Senior |
27-May-2007 09:11
|
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Wow Eagles....bold but good predictions....look out for this counter...shld break $3 by this week
|
|
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
|
Eagles
Member |
25-May-2007 21:56
|
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
My conviction is this counter will keep going to reach MINIMUM 16x historical PE at $4.9 OR 16X fY07PE (estimated from 1Q07 results) at $6.14...lets watch if this will happen...  .
Do keep some in your portfolio and cheers to all who got in earlier  .
|
|
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
|
lpkoh5
Senior |
23-May-2007 14:24
|
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
My target price hiting liao  ... I agree with Eagles...FA wise this is a solid counter....to me it shld at least match Wilmar PE....therefore no problem crossing $3....
|
|
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
|
Eagles
Member |
22-May-2007 21:28
|
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
See ealier justification...this fellow should be in region of 3 - 4 very soon, if half year results post solid gains again, might be 5 - 6.
Can do contra trades for small profits, even better to hold as value will keep going up eventually 
|
|
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
|
lpkoh5
Senior |
22-May-2007 10:15
|
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Cheong liao...........all e way....my target price for this stock is $2.80....but may well cross $3
|
|
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
|
Eagles
Member |
18-May-2007 08:06
|
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
The price increase in CPO (crude palm oil) will boost bottom line for both Golden Agri (Widjaja) family) and Wilmar (Kuok Group) as both are among world largest players...
|
|
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
|
Eagles
Member |
17-May-2007 22:26
|
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Keep in your portfolio to reap >50% returns by year end...some salients points 1) World Largest palm player - possibly larger than Wilmar (Kuok Group for Malaysia) 2) Recovered from rough patch on early 2000, top and bottom line hit exponential growth since 2006 3) Expanding aggressively in China since Dec 2005 , growth driver in 2007 / 2008 4) JV with USA on biodiesel business - new growth engine for 2008 5) Rising price of CPO (crude palm oil) in 2007 - should boost 2007 profit 6) most importantly, current price to double to S$4+ see below PE reference Wilmar historical PE > 50X, FY07 forward PE abt 30X Lats closing price 2.45=>GAR PE historical = 8X, forward PER abt <8X 
GAR at 16X PE = S$4.9...still way below Wilmars current price at 07PE 30x.... A 5-star must buy counter... |
|
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
|
Eagles
Member |
17-May-2007 07:46
|
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Grade A for mid-term investment, price will keep going up coz: Solid 1Q07 performance, world no biggest 1 palm player, strong strong strategic alliance with USA for biodiesel development, recent huge fund raising positioning itself for expansion, sharp increase in global demand for plam => CPO price surge
|
|
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||