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seanpent Elite	30-Jul-2013 15:11        seanpent About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	has Hiap Tong completed it's technical rebound and attempting to test the recent lows in the coming days ?
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SFGuyRuleZ Veteran	29-Jul-2013 22:08        SFGuyRuleZ About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Yells: "You are your own master.."
x 1   x 1  Alert Admin	Posted this in Vard just now, shall post here also.. Recently consulted a few of my friends working in finance line and asked them about Discounted Cash Flow Valuation (DCF) and fair value. From what I understood, for a stock that is highly liquid and with high volume, retained earnings/share can be added to DCF to obtain a fair value, provided the business is on-going in the long run. As for how discount factor is obtained, it varies differently for different people but from my experiences accumulated over the years, 0.12 is a rather good discount factor I use (taking into account risk-free rate, risk premium and inflation rate) often for companies below $5billion market capitalization and with relatively good current ratio, acid-test ratio and debt to equity ratio. For STI-listed and stable companies with low debt and high cash flow (e.g Keppel and ST Engineering), I realise a discount factor of 0.06 or less is used, which is reasonable as low risk => low yield. Therefore, for Hiap Tong now based on current results and assume current earnings are at least maintained and taking into account no growth (positive or negative), and that business is on-going in the long run: Based on discount factor 0.12 and g = 0, DCF/ share ~= 0.17. retained earnings/ share ~= 0.16. My fair value/ share for Hiap Tong now = 0.33. I believe Hiap Tong is a good growing company and as I mentioned before, with the oil and marine industry and onshore oil and gas industry blooming, I foresee high demand for haulage and crane services. However, Hiap Tong has a quick ratio of 0.65 but a debt to equity ratio of ~1.168 (if I am not wrong). This means Hiap Tong may have difficulties clearing debts in the short run, but is financially stable and low-debt in the long run. With the recent placement of shares, ~50% is used for debt purposes and the other ~50% for purchase of new PPE( Plants, Property, Equipment). This means short-term wise, it should not pose much of a debt problem if any. In the long term, in my opinion, I think it is a good company definitely worthing much more than 0.33 or 0.4. But that's just my own opinion. Do your own due diligence before investing.. Hope I clear any misunderstanding if any.. =) SFGuyRuleZ      ( Date: 23-Jul-2013 20:25) Posted: Hiap Tong looks like it is on a downtrend and if it doesn't close back at 0.295 or above tomorrow, there might be a chance it will fall further and next support is at 0.265. And I want to take the opportunity to correct what I have posted.. Fundamental value refers to intrinsic value/ discounted cash flow valuation. As for fair value or target price, it refers to a reasonable price you would pay to own a stock, and it varies accordingly to different people.. Based on most recent results for Hiap Tong: net asset value/ share ~= 0.23. Based on discount factor 0.12 and taking into account no growth (positive or negative, i.e. g = 0), intrinsic value ~= 0.17. Fair Value / Target price = ?? (You decide..) Thanks and cheers!!
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SFGuyRuleZ Veteran	24-Jul-2013 20:12        SFGuyRuleZ About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Yells: "You are your own master.."
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Looks well supported at 0.285.. SFGuyRuleZ      ( Date: 23-Jul-2013 20:25) Posted: Hiap Tong looks like it is on a downtrend and if it doesn't close back at 0.295 or above tomorrow, there might be a chance it will fall further and next support is at 0.265. And I want to take the opportunity to correct what I have posted.. Fundamental value refers to intrinsic value/ discounted cash flow valuation. As for fair value or target price, it refers to a reasonable price you would pay to own a stock, and it varies accordingly to different people.. Based on most recent results for Hiap Tong: net asset value/ share ~= 0.23. Based on discount factor 0.12 and taking into account no growth (positive or negative, i.e. g = 0), intrinsic value ~= 0.17. Fair Value / Target price = ?? (You decide..) Thanks and cheers!!
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bishan22 Elite	24-Jul-2013 07:12        bishan22 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Down trending, selling pressure not over yet. Longists have to wait for it. Good luck.  SFGuyRuleZ      ( Date: 23-Jul-2013 21:36) Posted: Hiap Tong is a good growing company. My personal fair value for Hiap Tong is 0.36. It may worth even much more in the future, especially when the oil and marine industry is blooming and there will be a high demand for cranes and haulage service. Just my opinion.. =)
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SFGuyRuleZ Veteran	23-Jul-2013 21:36        SFGuyRuleZ About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Yells: "You are your own master.."
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hiap Tong is a good growing company. My personal fair value for Hiap Tong is 0.36. It may worth even much more in the future, especially when the oil and marine industry is blooming and there will be a high demand for cranes and haulage service. Just my opinion.. =)
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SFGuyRuleZ Veteran	23-Jul-2013 20:25        SFGuyRuleZ About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Yells: "You are your own master.."
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hiap Tong looks like it is on a downtrend and if it doesn't close back at 0.295 or above tomorrow, there might be a chance it will fall further and next support is at 0.265. And I want to take the opportunity to correct what I have posted.. Fundamental value refers to intrinsic value/ discounted cash flow valuation. As for fair value or target price, it refers to a reasonable price you would pay to own a stock, and it varies accordingly to different people.. Based on most recent results for Hiap Tong: net asset value/ share ~= 0.23. Based on discount factor 0.12 and taking into account no growth (positive or negative, i.e. g = 0), intrinsic value ~= 0.17. Fair Value / Target price = ?? (You decide..) Thanks and cheers!!
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giganticmoney Member	18-Jul-2013 19:05        giganticmoney About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	$0 shorts, looks like reversing alr..
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novice_trader Elite	18-Jul-2013 18:52        novice_trader About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hahaha... Think we in same boat... Interra holding at 0.48 then sell off last two days, today? Chiong up 0.51... Think our timing is wrong... giganticmoney      ( Date: 18-Jul-2013 17:24) Posted: lol, that happens to me quite often. Like yoma which i hold at 0.385 for like half a year den finally it moved to 0.445 so i sell it after that he rocketed... Interra also bought at 0.375 sell only it rocketed to 0.50++. So im gonna be patient with this bugger novice_trader      ( Date: 18-Jul-2013 17:01) Posted: Nv ending bloody for this counter... Trap so many ppl and price nv end going down... Wait I sell it will chiong up...
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giganticmoney Member	18-Jul-2013 17:24        giganticmoney About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	lol, that happens to me quite often. Like yoma which i hold at 0.385 for like half a year den finally it moved to 0.445 so i sell it after that he rocketed... Interra also bought at 0.375 sell only it rocketed to 0.50++. So im gonna be patient with this bugger novice_trader      ( Date: 18-Jul-2013 17:01) Posted: Nv ending bloody for this counter... Trap so many ppl and price nv end going down... Wait I sell it will chiong up...
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novice_trader Elite	18-Jul-2013 17:01        novice_trader About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Nv ending bloody for this counter... Trap so many ppl and price nv end going down... Wait I sell it will chiong up...
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giganticmoney Member	18-Jul-2013 16:11        giganticmoney About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	yea total share capital is low, but their profit also low also no point.. Intrinsic      ( Date: 16-Jul-2013 06:41) Posted: Plus, the total issued share capital is very little, which means higher EPS for each share... if u take into account its revenue versus number of issued share, it translates into an EPS too good to be true... Sooner or later BBs will realise this and start snapping up the shares again
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Intrinsic Member	16-Jul-2013 06:41        Intrinsic About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Plus, the total issued share capital is very little, which means higher EPS for each share... if u take into account its revenue versus number of issued share, it translates into an EPS too good to be true... Sooner or later BBs will realise this and start snapping up the shares again
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Intrinsic Member	16-Jul-2013 06:37        Intrinsic About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Bro, you forgot to mention a very important point here which is the earnings per share EPS. If you look at historical EPS + dividend yield you will realise why this counter rose in the first place. Not for the short term trader. SFGuyRuleZ      ( Date: 05-Jul-2013 18:07) Posted: As for projected free cash flows, i do not wish to explain here as it involves certain understanding of fundamentals and can be misleading if discussed over here. However, it involves factors like profits, depreciation/amortization, income tax, finance income/expenses, adjustments for gain/losses on disposal, etc... As for how many years, I am sure when we talk about a business and as investment for long term, we assume that the business can go on for eternity. The number of years therefore I used is infinity leading to the formula => Summation Of Discounted Cash Flows from Future = [(current cashflow) x (1 +g)] / (r - g) , where g = growth rate and r is the yield. I always let g be default since I don't take into account growth rate. As for r, I always let it be 0.12 by default, but if the stock/ business is riskier, you can increase r, for higher risk = higher yield.   Coming up with the valuation of a stock only let you have an idea of what the price is like and whether you should enter or invest. However, fundamentals may change so it would be good to review on a quarterly basis. Also, the question is when will the stock reaches it's fundamental value?? To invest is more than just knowing the valuation of a company/ stock. Below are some pointers one can consider:   1)Debt to equity ratio   2)Industry/ Business Prospects Outlook   3)Average Volume traded   4)Is Discounted Cash Flow Valuation > Net Asset Value? 5)Targeted Market   6)Can company maintain it's revenue or profits? 7) Do most revenue for the year in the form of increase in trade receivables? Is it healthy? Why, etc... 8) Is order book equals or more than the yearly revenue taken into account for valuation? ...I like to share because stock research and investing is one of my interests. However, one should always do his/her homework and know his/her time horizon before investing. Don't anyhow buy or listen to anyone, including me, as we all have different risk appetites, time horizon, amount of capital, etc... Thanks and have a good weekend!! =) SFGuyRuleZ      ( Date: 05-Jul-2013 10:22) Posted: Logically, if you invest in a business, it would only be reasonable if you also pay for the net assets so as to gain returns from the company. Discounted cash flows measure like how much value it can still bring from the future discounted to present value so u know how much it is worth today. So it would be logical to add them up to get a value u willing to pay for. But there are also times when you can pay a premium.. I shall stop here for now as my boss calling me.. lo
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h0ly0wl Senior	16-Jul-2013 00:03        h0ly0wl About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood: Yells: "Huat Big Big!"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	bro.. HT chart not looking nice.. brace for impact.. novice_trader      ( Date: 15-Jul-2013 23:43) Posted: Think more like "Hiap Tong - GAME OVER!!!" Sian... WanSiTong      ( Date: 15-Jul-2013 10:35) Posted: I think the title is outdated and  should be changed to " Hiap Tong - Overvalued ?" LO
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novice_trader Elite	15-Jul-2013 23:43        novice_trader About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Think more like "Hiap Tong - GAME OVER!!!" Sian... WanSiTong      ( Date: 15-Jul-2013 10:35) Posted: I think the title is outdated and  should be changed to " Hiap Tong - Overvalued ?" LOL seanpent      ( Date: 15-Jul-2013 10:21) Posted: why is this weakening ?  seems like it's on  the descending  side of the chart now ...
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Dividend_Warrior Senior	15-Jul-2013 23:31        Dividend_Warrior About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood: Yells: "I am getting $1100 per month in dividends :)"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yup.......   WanSiTong      ( Date: 15-Jul-2013 10:35) Posted: I think the title is outdated and  should be changed to " Hiap Tong - Overvalued ?" LOL seanpent      ( Date: 15-Jul-2013 10:21) Posted: why is this weakening ?  seems like it's on  the descending  side of the chart now ...
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WanSiTong Master	15-Jul-2013 10:35        WanSiTong About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I think the title is outdated and  should be changed to " Hiap Tong - Overvalued ?" LOL seanpent      ( Date: 15-Jul-2013 10:21) Posted: why is this weakening ?  seems like it's on  the descending  side of the chart now ...
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seanpent Elite	15-Jul-2013 10:21        seanpent About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	why is this weakening ?  seems like it's on  the descending  side of the chart now ...
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dicksonh Veteran	15-Jul-2013 09:23        dicksonh About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	not moving up ....come on!!
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giganticmoney Member	12-Jul-2013 18:42        giganticmoney About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	a ray of hope has appear.
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