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Predict when this financial turmoil will end

leong3k
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28-Oct-2008 23:54

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Today almost all blue Chips was 52L, look like bottom oledi. Expected this week remaining 3 days will cheong! STI will hit back to >1800 coming friday....

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AK_Francis
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28-Oct-2008 23:32

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Much worry on KLSE, 832 and Thailand 398. Both Cty political situations are not stable, owing to internal issues. Though S Korea had revealed its financial weakness lately. Strong yen also not good for our region.

Recall 97, Thailand kicked start the Asian financial crisis.

Dun lurr by end yr tour booking heat lately. Just cautious loh.

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lookcc
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28-Oct-2008 23:13

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financials section now pulling dow to up only 60 pts [from up 300 pts ard 1 hour ago].

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AK_Francis
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28-Oct-2008 23:07

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AK opine that this is not a good time to acc. Keep the cash likely is the best option, unless, there is strong reason to go into the market now.

Now the main crisis is financail sectors got stuck. All markets need to get help from financial

sectors, if that help failed, what next???? Just simple.

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Hippo1
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28-Oct-2008 22:57

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I agree that we need to support the market to prevent free falling. Unfortunately, the retail like us will not help to rally unless with the help of the foreign funds. However, this time round, the foreign funds were badly hit by sub prime and required to bail out. Our local funds - GIC and Temasek only interested to buy overseas counters. in this case, it seems like we are a sitting duck waiting for the hedge fund to slaughter us.

retail buyers will not inflict any fears to the hedge funds.

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knightbridge
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28-Oct-2008 16:26

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Also other thing, holidays are coming soon. People around the world will wants to have a little excuses to cheers in these gloomy situations. Some form of weak rally might be coming soon. People want to have some form of light at the end of the tunnel, not end of the world.

I have book ticket to US for holidays. Merry christmas and Chinese new year coming u noe, the world still will celebrate no matter rich or poor, market boom or bust.

Buy into winners (company with good business model) and sell the losers (company with no profit for the pass few years) Re-adjust your portfolio, when the rally come u might be laughing to bank and avoid the relationship manager in banks in case they sell u junks.

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knightbridge
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28-Oct-2008 16:02

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Sooner or later the government around the world will realise they need to stability in the market. First got to hold the index stock to create some form of confidence and stability. (20 billion should be enough for singapore to hold the index at certain level) Same will currency cannot let them have big swing up and down, bad for business hard to do big trade around the world.

Singapore small market easy to hold the index. Pool a big group of savvy business man and government funds, will cause the market to rebound. Then retail investor will bang their heads why fear got into them and sell so low, start buying again.

If market fall 100 pts every day, 15 days later no more. If you are holding sin dollar might as well use as joss paper. We are still a small country u noe. I urge investor to support the market.

Sooner or later,, people will find no where to put their cash for good return will come back to equities. If happen that inflation kick in recession, holding cash will be burnt also. Like u see the australians, sudden drop in Australia dollar buy foreign goods also feel the pinch cost 30% more.

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ten4one
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28-Oct-2008 08:19

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I do agree with Farmer on using historical data to gauge the bottom. Historically, the Dot Com Bubble lasted the longest and thus it'll be another 20 mths to go. I think STI will hit the bottom of 1400 and there about b4 it recovers. For those who could afford to hold for 2 years and are not bothered by the drops would be ok to start accumulating now......Else, it is better to wait! Cheers!

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remisier
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27-Oct-2008 00:18

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yes,

I started to buy last Friday after sitting 100% cash this time.
I'll buy again on Tuesday if the price is right.

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Livermore
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27-Oct-2008 00:16

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Market should recover before economy recovers

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remisier
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27-Oct-2008 00:15

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STI bottoming from HSI perspective

I’ve just analysed the potential of early bottoming from HSI (Hang Seng Index) chart.
STI tracks HSI movement closely and it’s only wise enough for me to look at STI from HSI perspective.

There are 2 scenarios of bottoming:
1. STI has hit the bottom at 1600 level last Friday
2. STI may go lower tracking HSI index.
If HSI is able to hold up above 11,000 level by this year end, the market will have bottomed.

From this perspective the key is whether HSI is able to hold up above 11,000 level by this year end.

http://www.canslim.sg/?p=486

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Farmer
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26-Oct-2008 23:08

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Hmm....have been away for just a wk, what a different this one wk turn out to be. Scary!!!???

knightbridge has a point, "dont let fear overcome logic".

The BIG Questions now is When The Market Will Bottom? Well it's any body's guess. But, base on pass history/data of STI, the worst bear we've seen so far for the pass 23 yrs is the Asia Financial Crisis which lasted for 564 days and resulted in a sharp correction of 62% from its high.....it doesn't take a normal investor to realise that we're currently nearer to the bottom than the top unless one believe the market will never recover at all.

I read that many experts have said that this one is more serious than the AFC thus, this bring our forcast to >62% from last STI height ~3875. We're currently close to the -59% level at 1600, to surpass the -62% will take the STI to < 1472. Let's presume that the bottom to be -65%, this brings the STI to ~1350.

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knightbridge
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26-Oct-2008 21:32

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Look at iceland a small country collapse in this crisis, kroner becoming worthless. Singapore defintely got to learn from them to survived, this must never happen to singapore if not we the singapore citizen will be holding worthless singapore currency.

Last few days i think if some thing happen like iceland hit singapore will we survived. After that i think i should put some money in singapore stock market to boost confidence. If we start to have a small confidence toward the future of singapore, the stock market will recover slowly i think.

Trade with care, but dont let fear overcome logic.

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teeth53
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26-Oct-2008 07:19

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We are now at stage four Smiley ...Ya. Mean what next... Smiley . credit crunches Smiley is almost over ...Ya. For ur info..This is the work of a former Fed Chief's...Greenspan product with a 40 years of so call 40 yrs experience in been a financial expert,encouraged by George Bushand and

Here a layman can even tell he is in deed very wrong in his idea

Greensapn: I am shocked...Model that was found not to work, just like in M'Sia as well with Dr Mahathism for hid new team...Ya.

teeth53

teeth53 ( Date: 21-Oct-2008 16:30) Posted:

Just for sharing info..recalling since...is there a stage five...Ans is Yes and no..Ya

Posted:20Aug2007

lower interest rate and so on....to ride out over this dark cloud hanging all over this world is trying to bufff & trying to ensure ppl's all over that this storm will blow over.come on, of course we will, not before riding into stage 3.
We are facing at the word, confident right in our face and in our sub-conscious mind. scary Smiley

1st credit issue Smiley

, then credit squeeze Smiley

, next credit crunches Smiley

, what next ? Smiley

, credit melt....... Smiley

Cash is king....Hmm Smiley

takecover ( Date: 19-Oct-2008 20:52) Posted:

Now only stage two ending still not in sight

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yongk666
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21-Oct-2008 17:43

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Is HSI & STU sudden swing down due to This CitiPacific huge Forex losses?

CitiPacific plunges more than 50% today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It is strange all of sudden STI went into Negative,,,,

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE49J5NI20081020?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

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crimson
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21-Oct-2008 17:37

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Sounds interesting... is there really these 5 stages of a economic downturn? If so, can anyone help to explain/list-down what are the 5 stages?

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AK_Francis
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21-Oct-2008 16:45

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Stage 5=Famine.

Due to long recession, global economy slumps, retrenchment, lesser job opportunity, high umemployment rate, pay cut etc. Smiley

teeth53 ( Date: 21-Oct-2008 16:30) Posted:

Just for sharing info..recalling since...is there a stage five...Ans is Yes and no..Ya

Posted:20Aug2007

1st credit issue Smiley

, then credit squeeze Smiley

, next credit crunches Smiley

, what next ? Smiley

, credit melt....... Smiley

Cash is king....Hmm Smiley

takecover ( Date: 19-Oct-2008 20:52) Posted:

Now only stage two ending still not in sight

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teeth53
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21-Oct-2008 16:39

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Is AIA up for sales...?. Trouble brewing isit..?. credit crunching is not over yet.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/20/news/companies/Liddy/index.htm?postversion=2008102018

AIG targets year-end for asset sales

CEO says he expects to announce deals to pay off $85 billion government loan in fourth quarter.

First Published: October 20, 2008: 11:38 AM ET

AIG cuts perks, borrows $12B

AIG hits up Fed for more money

AIG to focus on property, casualty business

Why the Fed pulled the trigger on AIG

Fed in AIG rescue - $85B loan

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cathylmg
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21-Oct-2008 16:33

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When do you think will be time to pick up some stocks for keeps?

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teeth53
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21-Oct-2008 16:30

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Just for sharing info..recalling since...is there a stage five...Ans is Yes and no..Ya

Posted:20Aug2007

1st credit issue Smiley

, then credit squeeze Smiley

, next credit crunches Smiley

, what next ? Smiley

, credit melt....... Smiley

Cash is king....Hmm Smiley

takecover ( Date: 19-Oct-2008 20:52) Posted:

Now only stage two ending still not in sight.

teeth53 ( Date: 19-Oct-2008 11:24) Posted:

As what S'pore can guarantee $150bil till yr 2010 for all depositories here. US fear of recession all dur to sub-prime woes and it CDO has slump US further in deeper recession. Waening sign been posted since Jun 2007 till now. It take a yr to reach and has gone through stage three, credit cruching Smiley

, and a few weeks into Stage four of credit melting Smiley

U think lohh. Smiley

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