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Ghost Month and the Stock Market
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trader88.sg
Veteran |
06-Aug-2008 10:41
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Probability aside. There is one valid reason I can think of why people like to bet on 4D or TOTO. That is to buy on the HOPE he/she will strike. No matter how small the chance is, even at the chance of 1:1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, there is still a chance. If he/she does not bet at all, the chance is a FINITE ZERO, no chance at all! Slim chance ≠ zero chance. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
06-Aug-2008 10:40
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i can't believe this, i'm actually awake for the morning session. 
yuppers, trader88, the chance of winning is not 50/50. Besides, the odds are all-or-nothing: ie, you either win it all, or nothing; there's no 'stop loss' point. doesn't make good financial sense to me. (unless of course, i happen to be holding a winning ticket.  )
odds of 4D can be calculated using combinatorial mathematics: 4 places in the numbers, of which any can repeat, since there are 10 numbers, hence: _ _ _ _ => 10 x 10 x 10 x 10 = 10,000. there are 23 possible winning combinations: 1st, 2nd, 3rd prize, plus 10 each for starter and consolation. This can be repeated. Hence total chances of winning is 23 out of 10,000. Toto is even higher odds, since there are six places and 45 numbers. so really, it's a pure luck thing. And yay! someone likes my emoticons! 
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baseerahmed
Master |
06-Aug-2008 10:29
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err .. correct me if wrong ... the odds of 4D , 23: 10,000 .... ? any mathematicians here ? : ) |
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AK_Francis
Supreme |
06-Aug-2008 10:26
Yells: "Happy go lucky, cheers." |
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TOTO stake, 8 million comes this coming Fri, try your luck, go nee soon toto kiosk loh. there created at least 26 millionaires, so far. don't come Teck Whye one, it haunted kiosk, luckless. |
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baseerahmed
Master |
06-Aug-2008 10:09
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hahaha ! i don't these things ... but it made sense to me .. calculations is one thing , but winning is another thing ... the odds/probability may be 1 : 8,000, 000 or 1 : 50,000,000 .... from your side point of view ..you either win or loss .. whether u bet $1/- or $50/- or $1000 .... you either win or lose ... heads or tails ... will u win the 4D number 0808 or not ... odds 1: 10,000 ... are u lucky or not at the end of the day , did you win or loss your $1 or $50 or $1000 ... happy betting and may u be lucky ! good luck ! hahaha ! : ) |
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trader88.sg
Veteran |
06-Aug-2008 08:24
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Whoever thinks that the chance of winning is 50/50 does not know how to calculate the probability of winning.
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trader88.sg
Veteran |
06-Aug-2008 08:22
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Hey, elfinchilde, You have a good collection of emoticons. Tell you a secret: I always look forward to your emoticons, very cute. Ya, it is very difficult to find someone who does not bet on 4D or Toto nowadays. The prize money, especially the multi-million prize money for Toto is just too tempting.
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Blastoff
Elite |
06-Aug-2008 06:15
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Let's hope it will not moved cautiously... and slowly...
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AK_Francis
Supreme |
06-Aug-2008 00:54
Yells: "Happy go lucky, cheers." |
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ha ha all forms of legal gambling only benefited to few. now DJ up 106.98 and CO slided to 119.87, the tangible benefit is for billion of people loh. 2morow gonna be a good day liao. Cheers. | ||||
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baseerahmed
Master |
06-Aug-2008 00:48
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read somewhere : no point in calculating the odds in lotteries : as far as the buyer is concerned its either a win or a loss ... heads or tails ..50/50 .. lucky or not. he puts out $1/- for a gain of the prize or losses the $1/- end of story . |
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CWQuah
Master |
05-Aug-2008 23:51
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Hehe STI 2988 or 3088 by Friday anyone?? 2 4D numbers to play with heheh!
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tanglinboy
Elite |
05-Aug-2008 21:23
Yells: "hello!" |
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I am betting that this Friday 08-08-08 will be a big rally for the STI !! | ||||
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elfinchilde
Elite |
04-Aug-2008 13:51
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hehe, i couldn't resist punning on the 88. but yea. actually, i don't buy 4D or toto or suchlike too. For the simple reason that no techie would take all-or-nothing odds in any stake he/she makes. Not even if it's a 50c ticket. Principles have to be consistent if they're to be applied as a way of life. Having said that tho, there are some people who really do have gambling luck. I know of a few. Quite creepy actually.
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AK_Francis
Supreme |
04-Aug-2008 12:35
Yells: "Happy go lucky, cheers." |
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u may not lose 3410 as portion of nos are Red No and some sold out. ha ha, you may lose a bit less , if your betted 1st , 2nd and 3rd price nos are none of the above. if not, tai wok, you may get $0 back, if really so sweay loh. AK stop buying 4D since 5 yrs ago liao, but sometime buy a bit if got khang tau chee. other option for betting, not to buy the conventional ToTo. buy the so-called 2, 3 or 4 out of the 6 winning nos. the probability of kena is much earsier, but with less pay out loh. lastly, China does belief 888 is a good day. hence central gov had stop application of divorce and only new weds are allowed in ROM, 
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Sporeguy
Elite |
04-Aug-2008 11:43
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We must also look at the expected value in gambling. For 4D, the expected value is less than 0.66, i.e for every dollar received by sporepool, slightly less than 66 cts is returned as prize to the gamblers. For instance, if one spends $10000 on every nos from 0000 to 9999, you will get the price value of $6590, thus losing $3410. | ||||
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trader88.sg
Veteran |
04-Aug-2008 10:51
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OneSharer
Veteran |
04-Aug-2008 10:46
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Wow, able to stop buying 4D for 10 yrs? If a penny saved is really a penny earned, would you say you have earned quite a lot during this 10-yr period? |
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trader88.sg
Veteran |
04-Aug-2008 10:37
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I can give 4 digit numbers, but my numbers will be as random as what you all can give. I have stopped buying 4D for over 10 years already. If you calculate the probability of winning, it is just too unconvincing.
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baseerahmed
Master |
04-Aug-2008 02:13
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err ...just a trivia ( cultural ) question : any significance to the fibo ..... ? are all fibo numbers auspicious for weddings or just this 7th month ... ? : ) |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
04-Aug-2008 00:03
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yah, and it would also be the best time for trader88 to give us all four digit numbers so that everyone can huat ahhhh together. hehe. 
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