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PALM OIL STOCKS
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investor38
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22-Jul-2008 11:46
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Buy when there are fears and sell when there are cheers! Ps. No inducement to buy. Caveat emptor. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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investor38
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22-Jul-2008 11:36
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Tuesday July 22, 2008Positive outlook still for plantersBy LAALITHA HUNTPETALING JAYA: Analysts remain positive on plantation stocks despite the heavy sell-off over the last one week due to a slide in palm oil futures prices. Yesterday, the benchmark palm oil October futures contract closed RM132 lower at RM3,260 per tonne after crude oil fell to a six-week low on July 18, reducing the attractiveness of palm oil as an alternative fuel. The current crude palm oil (CPO) price had eroded by about 27% from its all-time high of about RM4,486 per tonne in March. The downward trend in palm oil futures was also due to the fact that Argentina, the world's third-largest soybean producer, said last week it would lower export taxes. As a result of the weakness in CPO prices, plantation stocks that were among the most resilient in recent months experienced accelerated profit taking, especially the big-cap stocks.  Among the major losers yesterday were Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd, which fell 30 sen to RM13.50. The stock had fallen by RM2 since last week. Heavyweight IOI Corp Bhd fell 10 sen to RM5.50 while Sarawak Oil Palms Bhd was down 25 sen to RM5.40. Sime Darby Bhd declined 15 sen to RM7.60. OSK Research analyst Alvin Tai said the downward trend in CPO prices was expected to be temporary and its price level would not fall below the RM3,000 benchmark. “CPO prices are expected to recover, driven by a surge in demand for cooking oil from China during the Beijing Olympics in August,” he said. He added that plantation stocks would move in tandem with the CPO prices, hence they would start picking up latest by mid-August. An analyst with a bank-backed brokerage concurred with Tai, saying that fundamentals were still strong for palm oil stocks and their prices would recover in two to four weeks.  “The outlook for the industry is still very positive as the cost of production was still the lowest for palm oil planters,” he noted. Citigroup analyst Penny Yaw, in a report, said she was still bullish on plantation counters such as IOI Corp and Sime Darby, with target prices of RM11.02 and RM15.65 respectively. “We believe that the stock usage ratio for palm oil would decline in the coming months as we head towards the Ramadan fasting season as well as when China starts to stock up again,” the report said. Meanwhile, windfall tax collection by the Government from plantation companies would also dip as a result of the current slide in CPO prices. The tax applies to the difference between the current price and the threshold price of RM2,000 per tonne. Earlier reports said the Government was expected to collect RM2.3bil in windfall tax from oil palm planters in the next 12 months if CPO continued to trade at its previously average price of RM3,500 per tonne. |
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investor38
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21-Jul-2008 18:58
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July 21 (Bloomberg) -- IOI Corp. fell for a sixth day to its lowest in more than ten months in Malaysian trading, pacing a slump by the nation's palm oil producers amid concern that demand for biofuels may decline after crude oil dropped. IOI, Malaysia's No. 2 palm oil producer, dropped 1.8 percent to 5.50 ringgit, its lowest close since Sept. 10. Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd., the third-biggest, lost 2.2 percent to 13.50 ringgit. Sime Darby Bhd., the biggest Malaysian stock by market value, declined 1.9 percent to 7.60 ringgit. The sell-off in plantation stocks which dragged the benchmark Kuala Lumpur Composite Index to a 19-month low will continue, said Jason Chong, chief investment officer at UOB-OSK Asset Management in Kuala Lumpur. Palm oil futures slid for a fourth day after crude oil fell to a six-week low on July 18, reducing the appeal of palm oil as an alternative fuel. ``Because it's very well-owned by foreign investors, they've only started to sell now, I won't be surprised to see more downside,'' said Chong, who helps oversee $600 million at UOB-OSK Asset Management. ``People are saying that commodities prices will come off, and oil is basically taking the lead.'' CIMB Investment Bank on July 18 cut its rating on the plantation industry to ``underweight'' from ``overweight,'' saying regulatory risks and rising costs will hurt profits. Palm oil for October delivery on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange declined 114 ringgit, or 3.4 percent, to 3,278 ringgit ($1,012) a metric ton, its fourth day of decline. `Remain Positive' PPB Group Bhd. declined 1.1 percent to 8.90 ringgit, while Asiatic Development Bhd. lost 3.2 percent to 6.10 ringgit. To be sure, the ``massive sell-down'' doesn't change the industry's outlook, analysts such as Tan Ting Min of Credit Suisse Group said. The fundamentals ``remain positive'' and palm oil stocks will outperform over a 12-month view, Tan said in a report today. ``There is a real shortage of edible oils in the 2009 season, as global stock-to-use ratios remain very low.'' She maintained her ``overweight'' rating on palm oil stocks, saying it's ``one of the few ways to hedge against rising inflation.'' Merrill Lynch & Co. today raised its crude palm oil price target for 2009 by 21 percent to 4,000 ringgit a ton, saying ``fundamentals should prevail.'' To contact the reporter on this story: Chan Tien Hin in Kuala Lumpur at thchan@bloomberg.net Last Updated: July 21, 2008 05:31 EDT Looks like a lot of differing opinions regarding palm oil. Decide which ANALyst you want to believe and trade carefully. |
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investor38
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21-Jul-2008 10:03
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By all technical indicators, Palm oil counters grossly oversold! Those who dare to buy now will be richly rewarded. Just my opinion. Caveat Emptor | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Stockking
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19-Jul-2008 22:28
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Guess more downside ahead for Wilmar...!!
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aleoleo
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18-Jul-2008 12:27
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all the palm oil stocks kena thrown like hell..... especially wilmar... haha.... wait to collect it at "better" price..... think sometime next week ??? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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investor38
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17-Jul-2008 16:10
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LONDON: Crude
palm oil prices should rise during 2008/09 with consumption growing at
a faster pace than production, Standard Chartered analyst Abah Ofon
said in a report yesterday.
“For now ample supply conditions will prevent a sudden spike in prices but continuous growth in demand, despite turbulence in the biodiesel sector, should provide the momentum needed for prices to head higher through the 2008/09 season,” he said. Crude oil prices fell sharply towards the end of the first quarter and have so far recouped less than 50 per cent of their losses, in contrast to soyoil which had regained almost 90 per cent after a similar setback. Ofon said production increases in Indonesia and Malaysia had eased market concern about the likelihood of tighter stocks. He noted, however, that tight export supplies of other edible oils such as sunflower oil and soyoil and the wide price discount for CPO boosted exports during the first half of 2008. “In the near term, high energy prices and freight costs will provide some support as will spillover gains from the soy complex on account of tight stocks in the US and crush delays in Argentina,” he said. Ofon said biodiesel demand could now be the weakest part in the overall demand picture with the rising cost of edible oils slowing biodiesel output growth in a number of producers, including Europe. - Reuters |
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yipyip
Master |
16-Jul-2008 01:18
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Global outlook still positive. According to the USDA’s projections, global palm oil consumption for 2008/2009 would grow 6%, to reach 42.7m tonnes. On the back of tight soybean supply (USDA projects a drop in soybean production from June’s forecasts – from 3.1b to 3b bushels and projects declining yields – from 42.1 bushels an acre in June to 41.6 bushels) and persistently high crude oil prices (currently around US$145/bbl), CPO prices is likely to remain at favourable levels (currently around RM3,500/tonne). DMG 15/Jul/08 |
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yipyip
Master |
16-Jul-2008 01:09
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Indonesia Plans to Revise Tax Rates on Palm Oil Exports By Yoga Rusmana and Naila Firdausi July 15 (Bloomberg) -- Indonesia, the world's biggest palm oil producer, will revise the tax rates on palm oil exports to reduce fluctuations in shipments, its trade minister said. Indonesia has linked palm oil export taxes to prices since February to benefit from global demand for the commodity. A tax of 15 percent is imposed on crude palm oil exports if prices in Rotterdam rise to $1,100 a metric ton, 20 percent if prices reach $1,200 a ton and 25 percent if prices exceed $1,300 a ton. Palm Oil Little Changed on Speculation China May Raise Imports By Feiwen Rong July 15 (Bloomberg) -- Palm oil in Malaysia was little changed on speculation China, the world's largest buyer of vegetable oils, may increase imports to replenish stockpiles and keep its domestic market supplied. China's palm oil imports dropped to 300,000 metric tons in June, from 498,478 tons in May and 367,472 tons a year earlier, the country's customs office said today. Stockpiles in Malaysia, the world's second largest producer, rose to record 2.04 million tons last month Last Updated: July 15 2008 6:05:00 PM
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yipyip
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14-Jul-2008 23:17
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Palm Oil Declines as Crude Oil Retreats, Malaysian Exports Fall By Feiwen Rong and Yoga Rusmana July 14 (Bloomberg) -- Palm oil in Malaysia fell as crude oil retreated from a record, damping the demand outlook for biofuels, and as stockpiles of the tropical oil in the country, the world's second largest producer, rose to a record in June. Palm and other vegetable oils often follow crude oil prices as they can be used in alternative fuels. Oil fell for a first day in four to $143.79 a barrel at 6:13 p.m. in Singapore, from a record $147.27 on July 11. Malaysia's palm oil inventories gained 6.4 percent to 2.04 million tons last month. ``It's a combination of weaker exports and lower crude oil prices,'' Michael Lee, trader at Marpro Oils & Grains Bhd., said by telephone from Kuala Lumpur today. Palm oil for September delivery on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 1.4 percent to close at 3,524 ringgit ($1,091) a metric ton. Prices declined 1.5 percent last week...... Last Updated: July 14 2008 6:05:00 PM
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yipyip
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12-Jul-2008 00:21
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Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange rose 1.8% Friday as investors resorted to fresh buying following gains in soyoil prices, said trade participants. The benchmark September contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR64 higher at MYR3,575 a metric ton after reaching an intraday high of MRY3,582 Last Updated: July 11 2008 6:05:00 PM
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yipyip
Master |
10-Jul-2008 01:22
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Palm Oil Rises After 3 Days of Losses; Crude, Soybean Oil Climb By Claire Leow and Yoga Rusmana July 9 (Bloomberg) -- Palm oil in Malaysia gained, ending three days of losses, as main rival soybean oil and crude rose after Iran test-fired a long range missile, raising concerns about energy security. Palm and soybean oils, mostly used in food, often follow crude as vegetable oils can be used to make alternative fuels. Crude surged as much as 1.7 percent to $138.28 a barrel, after slumping 6.4 percent in New York in the past two days. Soybean oil, which tumbled 5.8 percent in two days, gained as much as 1.6 percent to 66 cents a pound in Chicago. Last Updated: July 09 2008 6:05:00 PM
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yipyip
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09-Jul-2008 00:50
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Malaysian crude palm oil futures dipped further on Tuesday as fears of a build-up in stocks and declining soyoil prices depressed the market, following a 3 percent drop on Monday. The benchmark September contract KPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 1.2 percent to 3,470 ringgit per tonne.
Wilmar International (WLIL.SI: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), the world's biggest-listed palm oil company, dropped as much as 6.3 percent to hit a 10-week low of S$4.60, with over 6.3 million shares changing hands. Plantation firm Indofood Agri (IFAR.SI: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) also fell as much as 6.2 percent to hit a 9-week low of S$2.26, while Golden Agri-Resources (GAGR.SI: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) slipped by 5 percent to S$0.785. Over 38 million shares of the firm were traded. |
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investor38
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04-Jul-2008 11:51
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With relatively strong and stable CPO prices between April to June, I am expecting palm oil counters to post strong second quarter results. Outlook for the rest of the year should be good. Buy when there is fear and Sell when there is cheers Caveat Emptor! |
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yipyip
Master |
03-Jul-2008 12:38
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Last Updated: July 03 2008 12:21:06 PM
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yipyip
Master |
03-Jul-2008 01:32
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Last Updated: July 02 2008 6:05:00 PM
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investor38
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02-Jul-2008 12:04
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CPO prices over the last three months have been stable, avg. 3,400. Base on this I expect Palm oil counters to report excellent results for the second quarter. Share prices have yet to move in tandem. Expect re-valuation soon. Just my opinion. Caveat emptor. |
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yipyip
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02-Jul-2008 02:15
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Soybeans Rise to Record as Floods Cut U.S. Acreage, Hurt Yields By Jeff Wilson July 1 (Bloomberg) -- Soybeans rose to $16 a bushel for the first time ever on speculation that the worst Midwest flooding in 15 years will limit gains in U.S. production and inventories. U.S. farmers may harvest 96.8 percent of the acres planted, down from an earlier forecast of 98.1 percent, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said yesterday in a report. The flood- damaged fields may curb the production increases the government forecast after farmers planted 17 percent more acres this year. Some fields may need to be replanted.................... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=akhRxKA6cp0M&refer=home Last Updated: July 01 2008 6:05:00 PM
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yipyip
Master |
30-Jun-2008 00:41
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Last Updated: June 27 2008 6:05:00 PM
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yipyip
Master |
30-Jun-2008 00:40
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