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Time To Bottom Fish?
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victorian2
Senior |
02-Aug-2007 07:14
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Hi guys, Stay cool. Such sharp declines very rapidly bring back "fond" memories of Feb and similar crashes in the last 10yrs. There will be more blood letting not because of any changes to the fundmantals of the companies but rather there has been much speculations ie contras and overtrades by margin players maxing out their buy limits hence........ force selling, margin calls will rule the day in the coming 5-7 trading days. For longer term holders and those with deeper pockets, such sharp reversals are a welcome and form the basis of the next run in the last quarter. Why?? a. BBs can tighten the floats very hard much easily during these few weeks when paniky retail sell back to them either at depress prices or slightly higher prices. b. What has sub-prime got to do with Singapore??? Seriously, the problems were well known 6mths back so now is just confirmation of the bad financial numbers of those players in the industry and if you look at things, the real economy ie the goods and service market is doing very well all around the world... jobs are being added & threat of inflation is still being discussed from supply and demand bottlenecks/pent up/ real demand for goods and services. It's just the US property market that's screwed. Look at the rest of the world. c. The real financial position of many companies don't just change overnight .... So you have a situation of many good solid companies / my kantangs trading back at the book values. So the next 2mths will present tremendous opportunities to do some serious bottom fishing. and 50% of the price surges in a mega rally happens only in the last 10% of the time period so that is likely IMO to happen year end. Writing this piece to help keep people's heads cool during a difficult period like this that always comes in any mega rally. This is just major correction 2 for pennies before the next big run.. then another correction..... then run again before bye bye... permanent bear reversal. Hope this helps. |
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cheongsl
Master |
02-Aug-2007 06:56
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bottom fish for capitaland |
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cyjjerry85
Elite |
02-Aug-2007 01:34
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support your FA standing...even the professionals out there had emphasize many times the fundamentals are still solid...but on the technical side we see a downwash...micro & macro environment need to be calculated into the risks we take...bottom fishing may boil down to just luck some times...learn the painful lessons once...don't make it the second time...because..u never know if you can take the pain again....... Good Luck to all sincerely. |
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solochn
Member |
02-Aug-2007 00:04
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I have to agree with you cyjjerry85. Its never ending, however its up to one to judge for himself when is the best time to go in again. Its like they say buy when everyone sell and sell when everyone buy. I think there is a lot of panic selling and the FA for the region is still positive. Thats just my 2 cents worth! |
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cyjjerry85
Elite |
01-Aug-2007 23:54
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pls learn from lessons....bottom fishing is neverending in such a market where sentiments r bad... |
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solochn
Member |
01-Aug-2007 23:44
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I cut lost for most of my shares liao! And is planning to bottom fish. I am looking at ASL marine. Took my profit at 1.69. Bought some again at 1.59 Will pick up more if it go below 1.50 Anyone got any good counter to recommand at this point? |
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