* Gold gains for third day as Libya violence worsens

  * Silver firm, miners upbeat on output

  * Coming up: U.s. ISM Manufacturing PMI, Feb 1500 GMT

 

  (Updates throughout with comment refreshes prices pvs SINGAPORE)

  By Amanda Cooper

  LONDON, March 1 (Reuters) - Gold rose for a third day on Tuesday as escalating violence in Libya and unrest spreading across the Middle East offset optimism over stronger U.S. economic data.

  The gold price has risen by nearly 8 percent since uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt unleashed a swathe of popular protests across the region, sending the oil price to 2-1/2-year highs and raising concern among investors of the potential impact of soaring energy prices on growth.

  Tensions in the volatile region worsened as forces loyal to Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi massed near the Tunisian border on Tuesday, while the United States said it was moving warships and aircraft closer to Libya.

  Spot gold was last up 0.2 percent at $1,413.60 an ounce by 1039 GMT, having risen 6 percent in February, in its largest monthly rise since August 2010, when the U.S. Federal Reserve first indicated economic growth was feeble enough to warrant a resumption in purchases of government bonds.

  " We were looking for a correction in gold in January, and certainly I think that correction was interrupted by the political situation in North Africa and the Middle East, and that has been responsible for getting gold back up to $1,400," said Deutsche Bank analyst Daniel Brebner.

  While the uncertainty over the region is proving beneficial for gold for now, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's twice-yearly testimony to the U.S. Senate Banking Committee later in the day could be more decisive in determining the outlook for the gold price, he said.

  " The market may look at Bernanke's discussion today to get guidance in terms of where the next move will be. If it is to remain accommodative, then that's very good for gold. If the Fed ... talks about a hiking cycle or rising interest rates, then that may temper enthusiasm."

  U.S. April gold futures were up 0.3 percent at $1,414.70.

 

  FED KEY

  Since the Fed cut rates to 0.25 percent in response to the global financial crisis in late 2008, the gold price has risen 70 percent, reaching a record $1,430.95 in December 2010.

  A low rate environment encourages investors to buy gold as it limits the opportunity cost, or premium relinquished for holding a non-yield bearing asset, of owning the metal.

  Soaring food and energy prices have ignited inflation in emerging economies and have begun to raise consumer prices in the developed world, which raises the likelihood of tighter monetary policy, usually a negative for gold.

  " There's conflicting signals out there, which is beneficial for gold. But I wouldn't say there's a clear direction at the moment. The pendulum has swung back from (investors) being optimistic about economic recovery to being somewhat more cautious," said Simon Weeks, head of precious metals at Bank of Nova Scotia.

  In a reflection of investor ambiguity on gold, holdings of the metal dropped in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-back exchange-traded fund.

  Holdings fell for a fifth consecutive month in February, marking their worst string of declines since the creation of the fund in 2004.

  Offsetting some of the potential negative impact from sustained ETF outflows was the largest rise in speculative holdings of gold futures on COMEX in February since August last year.

  The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) said gold prices could drop 20 percent later this year and in 2012 as the global economy picks up and speculators exit the market. Adding to some of the concern about inflation, Brent crude oil futures rose above $112 a barrel on Tuesday as the ongoing unrest in the Middle East and North America threatened to further reduce crude supplies.

  Silver neared fresh 31-year highs, drawing strength from the weakness in the dollar and the resulting strength in the gold price. Silver has risen 10 percent this year, shrugging off the prospect of rising supply as industrial demand improves.

  Top primary producer Fresnillo said it expects a 5 percent rise in silver output in 2011 to around 44 million ounces, while U.S.-listed Coeur d'Alene Mines said on Monday it expected production to rise 20 percent to 20 million ounces this year.

  Platinum was up 0.2 percent at $1,808.50 an ounce, while palladium was up 1 percent at $802.50.

  (Editing by Jane Baird)

  First Published: 2011-03-01 08:49:33
Updated 2011-03-01 18:59:44

* Sees year profit less than 45 million pounds

  * Sees year-end net debt not less than 130 million pounds

  * Expects to fail year-end test of bank lending rules

  * Says lenders " supportive, talks " constructive"

  * Shares down 17 percent after hitting new 12-month low

  (Adds detail, background, CEO, analyst comment, shares)

  By James Davey

  LONDON, March 1 (Reuters) - Struggling British music, books and games retailer HMV faced further pressure to raise funds by selling equity or its Waterstone's book chain after issuing a second profit warning in two months.

  The 90-year-old company, which trades from about 700 stores in seven countries, also flagged a higher than expected year end net debt of 130 million pounds ($212 million) and said on Tuesday it did not expect to meet terms of its bank lending rules when they are tested in April.

  HMV, famous for its Nipper the dog trademark, said it has started talks with its lenders regarding potential changes to its facility agreement.

  These changes would ensure " their appropriateness for future trading conditions and to support delivery of the group's strategy" , it said.

  HMV said its lenders were supportive and talks with them were constructive.

  It said it expected underlying pretax profit for the year to end-April to be moderately below a forecast for 45 million pounds, blaming tough trading conditions since it last updated the market in January.

  HMV shares, which prior to Tuesday's update had lost 70 percent of their value over the past year, hit a new 12-month low of 16.5 pence and were down 16.9 percent at 17.18 pence at 1047 GMT, valuing the business at 76 million pounds.

  " We think this debt disaster will increase the pressure on the group to either sell Waterstone's or raise emergency equity," said Arden Partners analyst Nick Bubb.

  " Neither is a particularly palatable prospect but we still think the least worst option is to sell Waterstone's to (Alexander) Mamut for circa 70 million pounds."

  Russian oligarch Mamut, HMV's third largest shareholder with a 6.1 percent stake, has been linked with a possible bid for Waterstone's along with the chain's founder Tim Waterstone.

  Chief Executive Simon Fox said HMV was suffering from a difficult consumer environment and the changing markets in which it operates.

  " However, our business is adapting quickly to these external factors, and we are confident that our plans will ensure its long-term and sustainable future," he said.

  He had previously sought to avoid breaking the lending rules with plans to close 60 UK shops over the next year and make a further 10 million pounds of savings across the group.

  Facing intensifying competition from supermarkets, internet retailers and the growing popularity of digital downloading, as well as a tough macro outlook, HMV's problems have been compounded by credit insurers reducing the cover they are prepared to give to suppliers.

  HMV also named Philip Rowley, a former chairman and chief executive of AOL Europe, as non-executive chairman to replace Robert Swannell, who has less time available since also becoming chairman of retailer Marks & Spencer. (Editing by Mark Potter, Mike Nesbit) ($1=0.6140 pounds)

  2011-03-01 18:56:12

HONG KONG, March 1 (Reuters) - Hong Kong stocks closed slightly higher on Tuesday as gains in Chinese companies and local property developers offset a more than 5 percent decline in heavyweight HSBC.

  The Hang Seng Index < .HSI> finished up 0.25 percent at 23,396.42. It was outpaced by a 0.93 percent advance on the China Enterprises Index < .HSCE> of top locally listed mainland companies.

  The Shanghai Composite < .SSEC> had closed up 0.47 percent earlier, led by banking and property heavyweights.

  HIGHLIGHTS:

  * HSBC Holdings Plc < 0005.HK> dropped 5.1 percent, its sharpest single-day decline in a year, as retail investors dumped warrants following a tepid earnings outlook from the banking giant. While the losses came on more than three times the average 30-day traded volume of the stock, the weakness could persist as heavy buying seen since the start of the year unwinds.

  * Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, particularly construction-related issues, saw strong gains on continued optimism over China's plans to ramp up affordable housing. Anhui Conch Cement Co Ltd < 0914.HK> rose 5.4 percent, the top gainer on the China Enterprises Index.

  * Strong results from industry bellwether Sun Hung Kai Properties < 0016.HK> lifted its shares as well as those of peers. Sun Hung Kai properties Ltd rose 1.8 percent on healthy volume while Cheung Kong Holdings Ltd < 0001.HK> was up 4 percent. Henderson Land Development Co Ltd < 0012.HK> jumped 4.6 percent.

  DAY AHEAD:

  The FTSE China 25 index review is expected to be announced after the close, with market players expecting Warren Buffet-backed car maker BYD Co Ltd < 1211.HK> to be deleted as it struggles to maintain market share.

  On the earnings front, investors will await results from the world's most valuable exchange operator Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd < 0388.HK> . [ID:nL3E7E10P6] (Editing by Chris Lewis) (vikram.subhedar@thomsonreuters.com +852 2843 6975 Reuters Messaging: vikram.subhedar.reuters.com@reuters.net))

  2011-03-01 16:26:27

HONG KONG, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Shanghai shares rose on Monday as optimism ahead of the annual parliamentary session that begins on Thursday encouraged investors to buy into financials and manufacturing-related stocks.

  The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index ended up 0.9 percent at 2,905.1 points. The index rose 4.1 percent in February making it Asia's top performing market for the month. (Reporting by Emma Ashburn Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

  2011-02-28 15:12:04

SGX CEO says no more concessions in ASX bid

  SINGAPORE - The Singapore Exchange chief said on Tuesday he did not plan to offer more incentives to win control of Australian bourse operator despite pressure to sweeten its $7.7 billion bid.

  " We are not considering further concessions," Magnus Bocker, the chief executive of SGX, said at the Reuters Future Face of Finance Summit.

  - - - -

  Vietnam steps appropriate but growth may slow - ADB

  HANOI - The policy response Vietnam unveiled last week to tackle soaring inflation is appropriate but the authorities might have to lower their gross domestic product growth target, the Asian Development Bank said on Tuesday.

  " The Vietnam policy measures... are a very appropriate policy response," ADB President Haruhiko Kuroda told a news conference in Hanoi.

  - - - -

  Indonesia ceases rice imports, Manila cuts purchases

  JAKARTA/MANILA - Indonesia will need no more rice imports for six months and big buyer the Philippines may need a third as much as last year from global markets, helping to keep supplies of Asia's main staple ample.

  Plentiful supply has capped rice prices even as some Asian buyers have boosted purchases amid concern about food security as other grains raced to multi-year highs. High prices have stoked global inflation, putting the rising cost of food high on policy makers agendas.

 

 

 

 

 

 

  (Compiled by World Desk Singapore, +65 6870-3815)

  2011-03-01 18:43:54

Reuters will issue this diary daily at around 0930 GMT and 1700 GMT.

 

  All times in GMT unless otherwise stated.

 

  Items marked ** denote new or amended listings.

 

  Media clients will also receive around 0700 GMT a daily REUTERS WORLD NEWS OUTLOOK which highlights key events for the coming week.

 

  - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

 

  MONDAY, FEBRUARY 28

  GENEVA - U.N. Human Rights Council opens high-level ministerial session (to March 2).

  GENEVA - U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visits Switzerland.

  HANOVER, Germany - Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan to meet German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

  ROME - The trial of Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi on charges of tax fraud and false accounting to resume, after Italy's top court ruled this month he could not invoke automatic immunity. ** SEOUL - Annual U.S. - South Korea joint military drills begin.

  DOHA - Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero visits Qatar. ** LONDON - Turkish Republican People's Party leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu to visit Britain. ** BRUSSELS - Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon visits Belgium (to March 1). ** WASHINGTON - Congress returns and expected to agree on a spending bill or funding extension to avert a government shutdown. ** DAKAR - The heads of U.N. peacekeeping missions/offices in Liberia, Ivory Coast, Guinea Bissau, Sierra Leone to meet.

  BRUSSELS - EU ministers meet to discuss energy policy, including integrating the European energy market, investing in renewable energy and preventing fraud in energy trading.

  NEW YORK - Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) 2nd Preparatory Committee meeting (to March 4). ** PARIS - Biannual meeting of Vatican and senior world Jewish officials.

  NEW DELHI - Indian Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee presents the federal budget for 2011/12 fiscal year beginning April 1 (0530). ** NAZARETH - Rescued Chilean miners visit the Church of Annunciation.

  HELSINKI - EU Commissioner for Home Affairs Cecilia Malmstrom to meet Finnish Minister of Justice Tuija Brax and Minister of Migration and European Affairs Astrid Thors.

  NEW YORK - (POSTPONED FROM JANUARY 17) Trial of Galleon hedge fund founder Raj Rajaratnam on civil charges of insider trading begins.

 

  - - - - - - - - - -

 

  2011-02-28 17:22:23

* PBOC fixing up only 5 pips, echoing Premier Wen's comments

  * Market unable to grasp rhythm of PBOC yuan appreciation

  * But looks forward to yuan rise of 5 to 6 pct in 2011

  * Yuan at 6.5716, up 3.88 pct since depegging in June 2010

  * Gains 0.48 pct in month of Feb vs 0.2 pct fall in January

  By Lu Jianxin and Jacqueline Wong

  SHANGHAI, Feb 28 (Reuters) - The yuan ended up versus the dollar on Monday, reversing weakness in early trade as the market expects the government to let the yuan appreciate in the long run to help fight high inflation, traders said.

  However, dealers said the market was still unable to grasp the rhythm of how the government was pacing yuan appreciation as the People's Bank of China pulled the currency back last week after letting it hit repeated record highs earlier this year.

  The currency gained 0.48 percent in the month of February compared with a decline of 0.2 percent in January.

  The central bank set a marginally higher mid-point on Monday, echoing comments by Premier Wen Jiabao that China must stick to gradualism in letting the yuan appreciate.

  Still, the market looks forward to a 5 to 6 percent yuan rise in 2011 as the government appears to be using the exchange rate to fight high inflation and help adjust the country's economic structure to reduce its reliance on exports for economic growth.

  Fighting inflation is a priority for China and the government must ward off threats to social stability stemming from rapid price increases and pressure to raise the value of the yuan, Premier Wen said on Sunday.

  " The market is forced to follow the PBOC's rhythm of yuan appreciation as they are not sure where the yuan will be heading in the next few days," said a senior dealer at a U.S. bank in Shanghai.

  " But it is quite certain of the yuan's uptrend, that it will rise 5 to 6 percent this year as the government makes fighting inflation a top priority for its economy."

  INFLATION

  Spot yuan closed at 6.5716 to the dollar from Friday's close of 6.5750 and has risen 3.88 percent since its depegging from the dollar in June 2010.

  Before trading began, the PBOC fixed the yuan's mid-point at 6.5752 versus the dollar, only five 5 pips stronger than Friday's 6.5757. The fixing, from which the yuan can trade up or down a maximum 0.5 percent in a given day, is used by the PBOC to express the government's intentions for the currency.

  Traders had expected the fixing to hit a new peak amid fresh signs of likely imported inflation with oil prices having jumped since last week in line with rises in global commodity prices.

  Global oil prices are likely to rise 19.5 percent this year to $95 per barrel on average, a research report by the State Information Centre, a key Chinese government think-tank, said.

  The benchmark Reuters Jefferies CRB index, which covers 19 mostly U.S.-traded commodities, has now leapt over 40 percent since June last year, while China is the world's fastest growing market for staple goods.

  The official Shanghai Securities News on Monday quoted a research report as saying that China's annual consumer price index (CPI) might reach 4.5 percent in the first quarter and peak this year in the second quarter, propelled by factors including high global commodity prices.

  " While many players expect the PBOC to let the yuan appreciate to help fight imported inflation this year, the market is watching how the central bank is controlling the pace," said a trader at a Chinese commercial bank in Shenzhen.

  Benchmark one-year dollar/yuan non-deliverable forwards were bid at 6.4150, down slightly from 6.4215 at Friday's close. Their implied yuan appreciation in a year's time edged higher to 2.50 percent from 2.40 percent.

  2011-02-28 17:16:02

* Dollar-index down 0.2 percent at 77.120

  * High oil prices likely to keep Fed policy loose

  * Expectations of a hawkish ECB supports euro

  (Changes dateline, recasts, adds quote, previous TOKYO)

  By Neal Armstrong

  LONDON, Feb 28 (Reuters) - The dollar hovered close to three-month lows on Monday, hampered by expectations that the threat to growth from high oil prices would keep U.S. monetary policy loose, in contrast to the more hawkish outlooks of other major central banks.

  The Swiss franc remained firm as ongoing tensions in Libya and fears of contagion kept its safe-haven attraction intact.

  The dollar index, which tracks the greenback's performance against a basket of major currencies, was down 0.2 percent at 77.120. A break below 76.881 would have the index back at lows not seen since early November.

  The dollar has been hit hard by rising oil prices as investors fret the U.S. economy will suffer more than others, given its strong reliance on consumer spending for growth.

  " Rising oil prices help to widen the perceived policy divergence between the Fed and other major central banks," said Lee Hardman, currency analyst at BTM-UFJ

  " The ECB sees rising crude as an upside risk to inflation rather than the Fed's view that it will be negative for growth. This is increasing the risks of a near-term overshoot for the euro,"

  The euro was up around 0.1 percent versus the dollar at $1.3761, within sight of a three-week high of $1.3837 hit on Friday. Technical analysts said a break of the euro's year-to-date high at $1.3862 was needed for fresh momentum.

  But it was also susceptible to profit-taking as the latest data showed currency speculators had boosted bets in favour of the euro to the highest since October in the week ended Feb. 22.

  Expectations that the European Central Bank at its meeting on Thursday may signal its willingness to raise rates have been supporting the euro, as a series of ECB policymakers have sounded a hawkish tone in recent weeks.

  Fed officials are keeping an eye of growth and have set a high bar for tweaking their $600 billion bond buying program. Financial markets will look to congressional testimony by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke this week to try to discern the current state of debate within the central bank.

  " The dollar is likely to stay weak for now as investors expecting central banks to hike rates in response to higher oil prices favour the euro, pound and Swedish krona," said UBS fx analysts in a note.

  The dollar was flat against the Swiss franc at 0.9280 francs , near a record low of 0.9229 hit on EBS last week.

  The euro was steady at 1.2750 francs, with key support is seen at 1.2705 francs, a level representing a 61.8 percent retracement of the euro's December to February rally.

  The dollar was steady at 81.72 yen, lacking momentum before a series of events this week.

  As well as testimony from Bernanke, a European Central Bank policy meeting and U.S. jobs data are due, which could set the tone for the market in coming weeks.

 

  IRELAND CHANGE

  There was little reaction to news that Ireland's main opposition party claimed a historic election victory, after the government was routed at the polls.

  Some analysts cautioned that the new government could cause a ripple in coming weeks as it seeks to renegotiate the terms of a bailout scheme, although the majority of market players see limited chance Dublin will take measures that could shock investors, such as forcing losses on senior bank bonds.

  " If the incoming government is to obtain concessions on reducing the interest rate charged and extensions of the repayment maturity of the loans, it is unlikely that there will be much room to negotiate on haircuts on senior bank debt," said Takuji Okubo, chief economist at Societe Generale.

  (Additional reporting by Hideyuki Sano, editing by Toby Chopra)

  First Published: 2011-02-28 12:50:40
Updated 2011-02-28 17:03:52