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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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krisluke
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05-Jan-2011 20:44
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europe also red :( | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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james87
Veteran |
05-Jan-2011 19:57
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Dow future in red... | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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enghou
Senior |
05-Jan-2011 19:45
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Global Technical Comments by CIMB - Can Play Up to 1st Half Bullish on equities in 1H11. We remain bullish on US and Asian equity markets but only up to 1H11. We are looking at targets of 1,320pts for S&P500 and 615pts for MAxJ before they complete the bear market rally from the Mar 09 bottom. This implies upside of 5% for S&P500 and 8% for MAxJ. However, we are bearish long term as we think the destructive wave “C” bear market will only end in late 2012 and will take the index closer to the Mar 09 level or only about half the current level. A break below the 34-month SMA support would confirm our bearish view. Our call for a major peak is also supported by the three-year upcycle peak in 2011 for Asian markets. Given the strong correlation between developed and developing equity markets as well as commodities, we expect further volatility ahead. • Asean markets in the lead in 2010. 2010 was a good year for Asean equity markets. The best performers among the equity indices we monitor were the JCI, SET, Kospi and KLCI. It was a relatively flat year for Hang Seng and STI. The worst performer was the Shanghai Composite which closed the year in the red. 2010 was basically a year of two halves. Markets were down sharply in first half but clawed back their losses in the second half. Some indices even reached new all-time highs. • Looking for major peak in 1H11. We are looking for a major peak for US and Asian equity markets in 1H11. If our preferred wavecount is right, the S&P500 is close to completing the “a-b-c” wave from the Mar 09 bottom. Based on the channel resistance trendline formation, the S&P500 could hit 1,320pts before completing its uptrend. This suggests 5% upside for the index. For the MAxJ, the target is 615pts, which offers 9% upside in 1Q-2Q11. Investors should trade the market in 1H11 but be prepared to take profits at the end of the long-term uptrend. • More volatility ahead in 2011. There has been strong correlation between developed and developing equity markets as well as commodities since Mar 09. We expect this trend to continue in 2011. This promises more volatility in the coming year if and when the long-term uptrend reverses, like in 2007-08. • Three-year upcycle peak in 2011? Since the 1990s, most Asian equity markets have been experiencing major upcycle peaks every 3-4 years. The last was in 2007. If this cycle continues, the next cycle peak should occur sometime in 2011. Life Is Great |
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enghou
Senior |
05-Jan-2011 19:25
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DMG expects FSSTI to reach 3,447 We expect 10% upside for STI in 2011 to 3447, based on sum-of-the-parts valuation. This coincidentally works out to 1.6x P/B, which is the same as the 9-year historical average. We expect 2011 Singapore GDP growth of 5.6%, which is close to the long term sustainable rate of 6-8%, after the 2010 surge of 15%. There are interesting themes to play during the year, such as General Elections, tourism growth from full 12 month operations of both Integrated Resorts, and the award of the operatorship of the Downtown Line driving interest in land transport and selective construction stocks. 2011 STI EPS growth of 5.8% is respectable. These factors in our adjustment for DBS’ 2Q10 one-time impairment charge. If not for the weakness in oil and gas sector EPS (whilst the sector orders’ outlook looks positive), 2011 EPS would be a stronger 7.1%. General Elections could trigger trading interest, but no clear directional trend. The General Elections will likely be held in 2011, and that could trigger trading interest. However, our analyses of what happened over the past 4 elections suggest that there is no clear directional trend on the STI both pre and post polling. Still room to play the tourism theme. We promoted this sector back in early 2010, and we feel that there is still room for further growth. Visitor arrivals to Singapore rose 20.7% YoY for the first 11 months of 2010, and with a full 12-month contribution from the two IRs, we expect continued 2011 strength. CDLHT would benefit from the rise in visitor arrivals. We expect the award of the Downtown Line (likely to be in May 2011) to trigger increased investment interest in land transportation stocks. The government’s aim to promote use of public transportation will also help grow ridership numbers, with ComfortDelgro being a key beneficiary. Selective construction stocks could also benefit given the increased infrastructure expenditure. Higher inflation could drive high-end residential property prices. We forecast 2011 inflation of a relatively high 3.0%, and in line with that, we expect high-end residential properties to record price increases of 10-15%. This will be positive for developers of high-end residential properties such as Wing Tai and SC Global. Life Is Great |
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SGG_SGG
Master |
05-Jan-2011 14:19
Yells: "karma karma karma chameleon" |
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Everyone ate too much for lunch issit? Looks like half dead. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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krisluke
Supreme |
05-Jan-2011 13:51
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Stocks may weaken in afternoon session, support at 3,240 * GLP rises on China air-cargo firm stake buy * Palm oil stocks, rig builders retreat on profit-taking SINGAPORE, Jan 5 (Reuters) - Singapore shares edged higher on Wednesday as renewed interest in Global Logistic Properties (GLP) "This piece of news will buoy GLP's price," DMG & Partners said in a report. "ACL's properties will be GLP's first air cargo facilities to be sited within an airport perimeter." At midday, GLP shares gained 0.9 percent at S$2.16 on a volume of 44.1 million shares. Shares of Singapore banks were up after lagging the broader market last year. At midday, shares of DBS At midday, CapitaLand shares were trading at S$3.80 on a volume of 11.3 million shares. CapitaMalls Asia At midday, shares of Golden Agri-Resources (Reporting by Eveline Danubrata) ((eveline.danubrata@thomsonreuters.com)(+65 6403 5669)(Reuters Messaging: eveline.danubrata.reuters.com@reuters.net)) |
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iPunter
Supreme |
05-Jan-2011 13:41
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It appears that printing more and more money now is the way to go... After all, the effects will not be felt until maybe the next generation or two... By which time the money printers will no more be around... But first, we must live through the all-important 2012 first!... hehehe... |
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niuyear
Supreme |
05-Jan-2011 13:21
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With US government keeps on printing money (the 3rd round of money printing might be possible and coming), no wonder so much hot money is coming into the market . Can someone lend me a money printing machine? I want to print S$2000,000.00 to buy a property. |
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cathylmg
Elite |
05-Jan-2011 12:20
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Thanks victorf. Your advise is noted!
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des_khor
Supreme |
05-Jan-2011 12:15
Yells: "Tell me who is the God or MFT from this forum??" |
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Good sign !! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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victorf
Master |
05-Jan-2011 12:10
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we are in the long haul (but of course still within a year though) as there is still a long trading year 2011....we prefer slow and steady gain within a year time span ...to show their potential and strength like real gold or marathon runner their stamina (not 100 metre rush) irrespective of market....not follower or one time fancy....good luck :) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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cathylmg
Elite |
05-Jan-2011 11:36
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I'm expecting a correction. Just don't want it to fall too much.
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Hulumas
Supreme |
05-Jan-2011 10:54
Yells: "INVEST but not TRADE please!" |
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I am so sure, it won't.
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cathylmg
Elite |
05-Jan-2011 10:26
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Hope it recovers in the afternoon. Don't want a plunge too far back. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Bon3260
Supreme |
04-Jan-2011 22:38
Yells: "Ooo Ooo Aaa Aaa!" |
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As I mentioned b4, our Big Bro (USA)'s econ muz hv improved. If not... All indexes can climb sky high. 10% Counters @ top vol. but bal. 90% of e Counters r still no movemt oso no use... ('',)
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iPunter
Supreme |
04-Jan-2011 16:29
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With the "Kimchi Factor" fading away, the stage is set for a continued uptrend. On hindsight, it does seem the NK saga ("Kimchi Factor") is timely for a market correction/pull-back...
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james87
Veteran |
04-Jan-2011 16:22
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quite glad to see informatics in the watchlist...bought it at high price waiting for a chance to clear off....
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Hulumas
Supreme |
04-Jan-2011 16:10
Yells: "INVEST but not TRADE please!" |
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Not too fast, must take turn first so many stimulant in the market right!
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Zhiwei
Senior |
04-Jan-2011 16:04
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thanks victorf . Informatic, Fuyu and MDR are in my watchlist 2010 ...Hope "market is always right" prove it right again in 2011 ....
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sureesh40
Senior |
04-Jan-2011 15:29
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Why do you choose swiber, I thought they have some difficulty getting contracts
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