" SMART MONEY" HEADS WEST ? ??

North Korea Has Tripled Public Executions Since The Disastrous Currency Revaluation Of 2009

On November 30, 2009, Kim Jong-il ordered an unprecedented revaluation of the North Korean won by 100 to 1.

Not surprisingly, it turns out this made a lot of people angry.

A report obtained by Japan Times found that public executions have more than tripled since the currency intervention. This is a sign of growing social tensions in the dangerous dictatorship:

According to the confidential South Korean government report obtained by Lee Young Hwa, an economics professor at Kansai University, 52 North Koreans were publicly executed between December 2009 and last November, compared with 16 reported executions between January and November 2009... The report said the surge in executions was a direct result of the redenomination and was aimed at instilling fear to dampen increasing public discontent aimed at the dictatorship.

The report says social unrest is likely to rise under Kim Jong-un.

lol STI kana " Three Black CROWs" curse ? ??

Today I'm featuring a " thought experiment" Chris shared with me in a recent email. He uses the trailing twelve-month earnings (TTM) data published on the Standard & Poor's website. The latest 2011 forecast estimates are from the February 3rd spreadsheet maintained by senior analyst Howard Silverblatt. See my monthly valuation update for instructions on downloading the spreadsheet

Here are the key assumptions in Chris Turner's calculations:

• The 10-year average of nominal TTM earnings is 50.49 as of Q4 2010, rising to 55.35 by the end of 2011.
• The average nominal cyclical P/E10 is currently 18.06.
• The S& P 500 historic prices used in the calculations are monthly averages of daily closes.
• Standard & Poor's estimates of TTM earnings for Q4 2010 through Q4 2011 are
  76.86, 82.00, 84.73, 87.63 and 87.46 (as of February 3 spreadsheet).

The blue line represents Standard & Poor's TTM forecast earnings by month multiplied by the historical 10-year P/E ratio. At 2011 year-end earnings of 87.46 and an average nominal P/E of 18.06, we would see the S& P 500 at 1580. At this level, the nominal P/E10 would be 28.8, and the index would be about 58% above a hypothetical price multiple of the extrapolated 10-year earnings average.

The red line represents a hypothetical S& P 500 price that is a multiple of the average nominal P/E10 of 18.06 and the 10-year average earnings of 50.49 for December 2010. The monthly index price estimates thereafter are linear extrapolations based on average 10-year earnings growth.

The optimistic view (blue line) would put us at the 1500 level in the S& P 500 by late spring, the assumptions being that the Standard & Poor's earnings forecasts are correct the nominal P/E10 ratio is the multiple we see.

The pessimistic view (red line) is a reversion to the historic earnings and nominal P/E10 multiple.

But history shows us that, regardless of your preferred earnings divisor (nominal or real, TTM or 10-year average TTM), the P/E ratio has never hovered around the average. The market swings above and below its long-term average valuation in erratic arcs that can last for many years. For a long-term perspective on valuation extremes, see Three Market Valuation Indicators.

We'll revisit Chris's chart periodically throughout the year.

High sugar prices help US farmers pay off debt

By JANET McCONNAUGHEY
Associated Press

(AP:NEW ORLEANS) Disasters in Australia and foul weather in other sugar growing nations have driven up prices worldwide.

That's been good for many U.S. farmers, who can pay off loans and buy new equipment.

But some candy lovers will have a less happy Valentine's Day.

Evans Creole Candy Factory in New Orleans raised prices in late November for the first time in about eight years _ from under $15 to almost $19 for a box of 10 pralines.

Owner Jaye Cuccia says she uses 200 to 400 pounds of sugar a week and the price for a 50-pound bag has doubled from a year ago.

A spokeswoman for the National Confectioners Association says small candy makers are most likely to be affected by the increase in sugar prices.

High sugar prices help US farmers pay off debt

By JANET McCONNAUGHEY
Associated Press

(AP:NEW ORLEANS) Disasters in Australia and foul weather in other sugar growing nations have driven up prices worldwide.

That's been good for many U.S. farmers, who can pay off loans and buy new equipment.

But some candy lovers will have a less happy Valentine's Day.

Evans Creole Candy Factory in New Orleans raised prices in late November for the first time in about eight years _ from under $15 to almost $19 for a box of 10 pralines.

Owner Jaye Cuccia says she uses 200 to 400 pounds of sugar a week and the price for a 50-pound bag has doubled from a year ago.

A spokeswoman for the National Confectioners Association says small candy makers are most likely to be affected by the increase in sugar prices.

Oil rises above $87 after US crude supply drop

By ALEX KENNEDY
Associated Press

(AP:SINGAPORE) Oil prices rose above $87 a barrel Wednesday in Asia after a report showed U.S. crude supplies unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting demand may be improving.

Benchmark crude for March delivery was up 47 cents at $87.41 a barrel at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract lost 54 cents to settle at $86.94 on Tuesday.

In London, Brent crude gained 42 cents to $100.94 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

The American Petroleum Institute said late Tuesday that crude inventories fell 558,000 barrels last week while analysts surveyed by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos., had forecast an increase of 2.4 million barrels. Inventories of gasoline rose 3.2 million barrels and distillates fell 538,000 barrels, the API said.

The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration reports its weekly supply data later Wednesday.

" The API report was encouraging," energy consultant The Schork Report said. " All told, this was the most bullish report the API has released in weeks."

In other Nymex trading in February contracts, heating oil rose 0.5 cent to $2.74 a gallon and gasoline gained 1 cent to $2.50 a gallon. Natural gas futures for March delivery were up 0.5 cent at $4.05 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Bernanke to face sharp questions from Republicans

By JEANNINE AVERSA
AP Economics Writer

(AP:WASHINGTON) Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's first appearance before the House since Republicans took control last month is likely to be a tough one. And much of the grilling will probably come from members of his own party.

Bernanke is a Republican who served as President George W. Bush's chief economist. Bush chose him to run the Fed in 2006.

President Barack Obama ran into initial resistance in his effort to get Bernanke confirmed for a second term as chairman in late 2009. Republicans led the opposition, upset over the Fed's role in bailing out Wall Street firms during the financial crisis. In January 2010, the Senate confirmed Bernanke for a second term, though by the narrowest margin for any Fed chairman.

Many economists, academics and supporters in Congress credit Bernanke with helping prevent the Great Recession from turning into a second Great Depression.

But that's in the past. Bernanke's efforts to help invigorate the economy through a program to buy $600 billion in Treasury bonds have incited criticism.

Much of it has come from Republicans, including House Speaker John Boehner of Ohio and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. They've argued that the program could ignite inflation or cause speculative buying that might inflate bubbles in assets like stocks.

Bernanke is likely to face grilling from lawmakers about the costs and benefits of the program when he testifies to the House Budget Committee on Wednesday morning. The committee's chairman, Paul Ryan, R-Wis., has raised concerns about the Fed's efforts to stimulate the economy, including buying government debt. He, too, says he fears the Fed's actions could spur inflation.

Lawmakers from both parties will likely aim to get Bernanke to back their solutions for reducing the government's $1 trillion-plus budget deficits. Ryan has promoted budget cuts as the way to reduce deficits.

As in the past, Bernanke probably won't endorse a specific legislative approach for cutting the deficits. But he'll likely again warn Congress and the White House that failing to forge a plan to reduce deficits over the long term could hurt the economy later.

Persistent budget deficits will prompt investors to demand higher yields on government debt, causing interest rates to soar, Bernanke has said. Higher borrowing costs would crimp spending by consumers and businesses, slowing economic activity, he's warned.

Last week, Bernanke stepped into the political debate over the nation's debt limit. The Fed chief warned congressional Republicans not to " play around with" the Treasury Department's request to boost the government's borrowing authority beyond the current $14.3 trillion statutory cap. House Republicans have vowed to make deep spending cuts a precondition for voting to raise the debt ceiling.

The department has asked Congress to let it borrow more so it can continue to pay its bills. In the unlikely event that Congress denied the request, the U.S. government would be at risk of defaulting on its debt.

Bernanke, in remarks last week to the National Press Club, said the implications would be catastrophic. He urged Congress not to use the debt limit as a " bargaining chip" in broader discussions about reducing the government's deficits.

At the same time Bernanke is testifying, Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, will hold a hearing on whether the Fed's bond-buying program and record-low interest rates can really help create jobs.

Paul, a Bernanke critic who favors abolishing the Fed, says the " nation's employment picture remains bleak" despite the Fed's actions.

The unemployment rate has sunk in the past two months _ from 9.8 percent to 9 percent. But it remains very high by historical standards. And job creation is still weak. Bernanke has said it will take " several years" for unemployment to drop to normal levels.

// Ah Ben Talkin' dj short term sideway //

Taiwan's Inflation Slows In January

(RTTNews) - Taiwan's consumer price inflation slowed to 1.11% in January from 1.24% recorded in December, latest data from the statistical office showed Wednesday. Economists had forecast 1.5% rise in consumer prices.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices decreased by 0.01%, the statistical agency said.

The wholesale price index, or WPI, climbed 1.64% annually following the 2.22% rise seen in December. It was expected to rise by 2.2%. Month-on-month, the CPI fell 0.22%

2/8/2011 10:07:36 PM China's service sector expanded at the slowest pace in four months in January as the government's tightening policies took effect, according to a closely watched survey.

The HSBC-Markit business activity index fell to 52.0 from 53.1 in December, the third lowest score recorded in the survey's five-year history. Anything above 50 indicates expansion.

New business received by Chinese service providers eased for the fifth successive month in January to a 25-month low. Respondents linked the slower increase in new orders to relatively lacklustre client demand.

Meanwhile, China's composite purchasing managers' index, combining both manufacturing and services, fell to 54.6 in January from 55.2 in the previous month.