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AUSGROUP: 1H09 revenue up 28.8% to reach A$260.5 m

ozone2002
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31-Mar-2010 09:22

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if u believe the hocus pocus..

AusGroup Ltd: Slow tendering activity clouding earnings visibility

Summary: Woodside’s Pluto LNG project and BHP’s RGP 5 iron ore project are likely to underpin AusGroup Ltd’s 2H10 revenue and should help the group show sequential improvement. But we believe that subdued tendering activity continues to be a problem – there is a large potential pool of projects but many players are still taking their time to resume or launch projects. AusGroup has not announced a contract win since 14 Jan. Oil & gas projects have not been a saving grace, either. A report tabled in the West Australian Parliament found that just half of Gorgon-related contracts have been awarded to Australian companies. With little tendering activity, AusGroup may find it tough to replenish its order book as current projects end. This could impact FY11 earnings or lead to another lop-sided year like FY10 (weaker 1H, stronger 2H). Management tells us that it expects more activity from 1HFY11 onwards. It may be prudent to adopt a wait-and-see approach: maintain HOLDand S$0.60 fair value on limited earnings visibility. (Meenal Kumar)

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Bon3260
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30-Mar-2010 23:00

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Yells: "Ooo Ooo Aaa Aaa!"

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Left pocket in & rite pocket out lah... Internal transactions. So dat STI still can remain nice nice mah. ('',)

ozone2002 ( Date: 30-Mar-2010 15:00) Posted:

i see big lots being accumulated @ 595 & 60..

definitely not auntie uncle accumulating..

ozone2002 ( Date: 29-Mar-2010 14:31) Posted:

wiping out the 60c sell Q..

waiting...

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froggie08
Member

30-Mar-2010 22:54

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BB prepare to push up higher!

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ozone2002
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30-Mar-2010 15:00

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i see big lots being accumulated @ 595 & 60..

definitely not auntie uncle accumulating..

ozone2002 ( Date: 29-Mar-2010 14:31) Posted:

wiping out the 60c sell Q..

waiting...

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pharoah88
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29-Mar-2010 18:20

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Monday, 29 March 2010 Next Insight

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pharoah88
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29-Mar-2010 15:47

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Hiap Seng has Overtaken to S$0.615

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ozone2002
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29-Mar-2010 14:31

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wiping out the 60c sell Q..

waiting...

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pharoah88
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29-Mar-2010 12:43

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T.A. seems to work only when market is DYNAMIC

but nOt when market is STATIC

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pharoah88
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29-Mar-2010 11:41

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Market Makers can easily SHAPE the CHART the way they want.

using the UNFAIR & UNJUST 5-minute POST-CLOSING SESSION.

ozone2002 ( Date: 28-Mar-2010 09:56) Posted:

bollinger bands getting damn tight..

gonna break out soon..likely to the upside..

dyodd..

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ozone2002
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29-Mar-2010 11:38

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clearing out the weak holders @ 60c..

a matter of time..

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ozone2002
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28-Mar-2010 09:56

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bollinger bands getting damn tight..

gonna break out soon..likely to the upside..

dyodd..

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pharoah88
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26-Mar-2010 14:23

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this is a One NiGHT STAND

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pharoah88
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26-Mar-2010 10:35

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where are the TAs and the CHARTS?

iS S$0.590 good time to buy ?

Or need to wait for S$0.580?

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ozone2002
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26-Mar-2010 10:30

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some movement detected..

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ozone2002
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25-Mar-2010 14:46

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low vol on pull back..

good sign for further uptrend..

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Hulumas
Supreme

25-Mar-2010 14:27

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Yells: "INVEST but not TRADE please!"

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Is small gap range trading not enough good taste or attractiveness for trader making money!

pharoah88 ( Date: 25-Mar-2010 13:46) Posted:

this is also ROCKING & ROLLING

between S$0.595 and S$0.615.

gOOd tO make sOme pOcket mOney

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pharoah88
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25-Mar-2010 14:22

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MRE Turns Bullish on Oil

25 Mar 10

On the back of improving oil fundamentals, Macquarie Research Equities (MRE) has turned bullish and is now confident that fundamentals can drive oil prices materially higher and can push oil into high US$80s, and beyond, post 2011. In a note released on 22nd March 2010, MRE stated the specific data and developments that have made them turn bullish…

Global oil demand grew by 1.2% already in 4Q 2009
The growth engines are the world’s emerging economies (with China in the lead). They staged a sharp V-shaped economic recovery – which pushed non-OECD oil use up 6.4% YoY in 4Q. And they’re on track for 5.5% growth this quarter. For the year, non-OECD growth of 4.4% YoY shines through much better once OECD oil demand is no longer declining (it should grow this year by 0.8%).

MRE expects 2010 oil demand growth of 2.4%, materially above consensus.
MRE is not just applying yet another China growth story here. MRE looked deeper into the data about the large and diversified group of smaller, non-BRIC emerging economies. As a group they account for 20% of global oil demand (the OECD accounts for 56% and China for 10%). Most feature strong economic growth already, or will soon. MRE projects their oil demand to grow by 3.5% this year and 4% in 2011, which in barrels per day exceeds the volume growth of China.

OPEC claims it is far less optimistic
That is important, because the producer group seems ready to use a weak fundamentals base-case scenario as an excuse not to raise oil production this summer. MRE is no longer convinced that Saudi Arabia and others will do their utmost to keep prices at or below US$80/b. They may instead revert to pleading innocence and pointing at “speculators” when prices rally above their comfort zone.

OECD oil inventories are high, but falling
Oil inventories fell materially in 4Q 2009. Though stocks remained very high and were added to in January, they then came down further in February again. In parallel, oil prices rose very fast around the turn of the year and pulled back, as MRE expected, in late January. But that pull back did not last long.

Inventories should normalize by 4Q2010
Big draws are in store for the second and third quarter, unless Saudi Arabia raises its supply materially, and very soon. At the Opec ministerial meeting in Vienna last week, not one minister publicly expressed worries that oil prices could rise well above the supposedly-desired narrow range around US$75/b. Instead, the Saudi oil minister pointed out that fundamentals are tightening nicely and that oil was in a happy place.

The huge surplus of oil held for storage in tankers at sea may be gone by summer
Since November, these floating inventories have been falling steadily. Middle distillate stocks had looked especially burdensome, but are falling between 10-15m barrels per month from
November onward – and their surplus could disappear by May/June at this pace.

Futures markets signal emerging fundamental strength
Don’t take the data’s word for it! Market-structures are better leading indicators of prices. It is significant that the contango in Brent oil futures is flattening out.

Oil prices have broken out to the upside
The unusually tight, inverse correlation with the US dollar crumbled this winter, but oil still seems joined at the hip with equity markets, though even that correlation is working less predictably, and an $80/b floor appears to be holding for now. A pull-back of prices is still likely in the shorter-term, the trend is decidedly bullish.

In short, MRE expects to see a simple fundamentals-driven market rally developing this year. Next year, producers will likely scramble to keep prices in check and, crucially, will still have enough spare capacity to do so with ease.

Further out, however, MRE believes that prices will break out of this new US$80-90 range as early as 2012, when scarcity looms that much closer.

MRE re-worked both sides of their medium-term oil balance and still arrive at a base case in which supply trends cannot grow fast enough to meet the most plausible demand trends. In other words, our base case trends still project toward scarcity in 2013.

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pharoah88
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25-Mar-2010 13:46

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this is also ROCKING & ROLLING

between S$0.595 and S$0.615.

gOOd tO make sOme pOcket mOney

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Hulumas
Supreme

25-Mar-2010 11:55

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Yells: "INVEST but not TRADE please!"

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It goes through consolidation period now!

star-trader ( Date: 24-Mar-2010 20:43) Posted:

If i didn't calculate wrongly, Ausgroup will post to go higher in very short term but probably riding on a gap of 15cents to 20cents..

I don't know about the news, but to those that queue at 0.595 or 0.6, congrats.. even if it is 0.6, you should be good enough to ride on the mini-Elliot Wave tomorrow on for the next few days... my bet, OBV showing some signals.

SOBAYOR,

Star-Trader

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star-trader
Senior

24-Mar-2010 20:43

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