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SPC
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jkbk007
Senior |
04-Jul-2007 22:22
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168, Please don't call me shifu. In the past I was never really involved in shares and knows very little about it. I started to pick up investment skills only after I started trading SPC earlier this year. My investment in SPC proves to be very fruitful as I pick up financial skills and at the same time make some money. I am still learning. BTW I am not aware that there is a planned shutdown in July. Where did you hear this news? |
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idesa168
Elite |
04-Jul-2007 22:21
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28¢ BASIC! |
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chinkiasu
Master |
04-Jul-2007 22:15
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ok, folks... now that we got all that cleared up...what do you think would be 2Q2007 "basic" EPS be ? so that we can estimate FA wise what should be the target price when they announce their results in 25th July |
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idesa168
Elite |
04-Jul-2007 22:04
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Thanks to both shifus. Conversion of bonds and warrants on expiry and share options, the company will issue new shares for this purpose, hence diluting the EPS. It's the opposite of effect of Share Buy Back programme where they will cancel off the shares in the floats or use them for bonds and warrant or share options purpose. Now I understand that. It makes easy to read the Annual Reports now. For 2006, there is not diluting of EPS based on their report, but 2005 a 69,8XX million new shares causing the dilute. |
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jkbk007
Senior |
04-Jul-2007 21:34
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The basic figure is the total earnings per share based on the number of shares outstanding at the time. The diluted EPS figure reveals the earnings per-share a business would have made if all stock options, warrants, convertibles, etc. were invoked and the additional shares increased the total shares outstanding. |
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shplayer
Elite |
04-Jul-2007 21:26
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ideas168, The 'Basic' eps/NAV is calculated based on average issued share during that period. 'Diluted' figures are calculated based on potential dilution from new share issues in the future....such as share options, conversion of bonds and warrants. In FY05, SPC issued about 74 mil new share of which about 71 mil was for conversion of bond at $3.20 (I think) and the rest were exercise of option by employees. I prefer to use the Basic numbers for current situation.....but will apply the Diluted numbers in my forecasts if there is reason to believe that substantial new shares will be issued in that period...eg...pending expiry of warrants, attractive stock price vs bond conversion price.....etc. |
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idesa168
Elite |
04-Jul-2007 21:07
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Hi shplayer... I can see where you got the numbers. I went into the SPC site to retrieve their Financial highlight for 2005. You are right with 85¢. Isn't that is the figure to Basic and once Diluted, the numbers dropped to 79.2, which I think is closer to the numbers shareinvestor posted (78¢). By the way, do you know what is the meaning of Basic and Diluted? I am not in accountancy that I do not know these terms. Is diluting means company issue more shares and hence dilute and in event they lost in some investment that will cause the dilute? If you are kind enough, please advise me, thanks. |
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shplayer
Elite |
04-Jul-2007 20:58
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ideas168 & CKS, I get my data directly from company's quarterly financial reporting. So, this should be the most accurate. FY05 eps was 85.19 c........for simplicity, I dropped figures after the decimal......Think your source of 78 c is incorrect. The shutdown for maintenance in July will not impact will take capacity off the market....so will enhance RM for refineries. Also, bear in mind that Exxon will also be shutting down their 309k bpd plant in Jun/Jul. SPC's shutdown will reduce throughput....i.e topline will be affected....therefore affect bottomline and eps. |
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idesa168
Elite |
04-Jul-2007 20:37
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Did you see the chart that day when jkbk007 poster? He was very kind. The refinery chart for gasoline95, very encouraging. The charts shows that in May the RM shot up to $12-$13, but skidded in June but since it was on uptrend to late June. I remembered SPC poster 1Q with avg RM of $7.00. I hope they can do better this quarter, perhaps $8-$9. Let's see on 25 July. I am buying pop corn at home and wait for the result....lol! |
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chinkiasu
Master |
04-Jul-2007 20:20
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good we got that sorted out... re 2Q2007, my guess is that EPS should be around 25-28 as the refining margins (looking at 007's chart) now are quite good |
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idesa168
Elite |
04-Jul-2007 20:10
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yes, I went into the singtel site you are using and they are the same as the shareinvestor data. I think they are just doing a co-branding thingy. data shd be the same and shd originate from wwww.shareinvestor.com. To surpass 80¢ or not will rely on the numbers of 2Q. If the number is good, SPC will require little (33¢ for 2 quarters) to achieve 80¢. What is your take on the 2Q? |
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chinkiasu
Master |
04-Jul-2007 19:56
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yes, a nominal amount... btw.. i had another look at the singtel.shareinvestor.com figures.. they have another set for adjusted fundamental data... and eps is $0.55152, $0.78214, & $0.49007 for 2006, 2005, & 2004 respectively.. it think this is the set you use... |
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idesa168
Elite |
04-Jul-2007 19:47
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I am using www.shareinvestor.com. Is the singtel one needs to pay? |
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chinkiasu
Master |
04-Jul-2007 19:45
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let me be specific.. I am using singtel.shareinvestor.com.... perhaps you r using a different shareinvestor? |
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chinkiasu
Master |
04-Jul-2007 19:43
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oh? I just look at it a few mins ago... btw I have got the 1Q2007 the EPS is 21.7300 ... this suggest we gona hit 80cts for the year.. |
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idesa168
Elite |
04-Jul-2007 19:41
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Hi Chinkiasu...I am puzzled. The numbers I got was from Shareinvestor too. It says 55.152¢ & 78.214¢ for 06 and 05 respectively. Why are the data we got are different? |
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chinkiasu
Master |
04-Jul-2007 19:36
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yes Shplayer is correct.. figure from shareinvestor.. divvy is 35cts and 32cts for 2006 & 2005 respectively but historical EPS (base on weighted average no of shares) is 55.33 and 85.19 |
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idesa168
Elite |
04-Jul-2007 19:32
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I am happy with divvy 07 @45¢...lol! BTW, has anyone here predicts the 2nd quarters numbers? 2Q06 was 26.38¢. Quite a good number. Wonder SPC will surpass this number on 2Q07? I am hoping 26-28¢, which then SPC will need only 33¢ for 3Q & 4Q to make 80¢. 3rd quarters number will not be good as the refinery will be closed for maintenance. |
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idesa168
Elite |
04-Jul-2007 19:21
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mmm...2005 EPS was 78¢, divvy @32¢. 2006 EPS was 55¢, divvy @35¢. shplayer, did you get the numbers wrong? |
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shplayer
Elite |
04-Jul-2007 17:51
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ideas168, eps of 80cts is not impossible. FY05 eps was 85cts.......of course, that was the year of Katrina. But for FY07, there has been alot of news of refinery outages particularly in the US but also in Spore (Exxon fire). This is made worse by tightening of safety regulations (conviction of BP for accident in Texas in 2005) resulting in a greater need for repair and maintenance. Then there is the Geopolitical issues.....ME, Nigeria....but in particular Venuzuela....where there is a compulsory nationalisation of the oil industry by Pres Chavez. All this will contribute to the tightening of refining capacity which should see refining margins remaining firm for the rest of 2007. As for 55c divvy? hope so but not too sure......FY05 divvy was 32 c. |
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