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SPC
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Manikamaniko
Senior |
05-Jul-2007 12:20
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Idesa168... :) |
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idesa168
Elite |
05-Jul-2007 12:08
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Dear Mani or Money or $$$! Your nick must have been derived from $$$. Life is tough. Whether we make $$ or lose $$, be happy. Senior or not makes no diff. As far as we all make $$, I don't mind being a kopi boy! Show me the MONEY! |
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Manikamaniko.
Master |
05-Jul-2007 12:04
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Idesa168... :) |
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idesa168
Elite |
05-Jul-2007 11:58
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Thank you all the shifu for the advises. I guess I will just leave "Senior" as it is. As far as all of you know that I am not Senior here...lol! Jessie, no problem, I don't usually post good posting, bad is fine...lol!...Please don't get too engross in this forum, look at the mkt screen NOW! It's $5.90 HIT!!!!! Cheers all! |
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Manikamaniko.
Master |
05-Jul-2007 11:52
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Idesa168... :) Not to worry... you have earned the "senior" designation because you have been active in the forum discussions... we are all life-long learners, you see... As long as you make money in the stock market in the long run, it is good... It is good also to remember that... not losing $$$ is much much better than not making $$$. |
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jessie
Senior |
05-Jul-2007 11:47
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Oops... Sorry ideasa168, I have accidentally given you a bad post. I actually wanted to response to your request regarding removing the "senior" title. For your info, I have also made similar request before (via Admin) but not successful leh.... Hmmm, I think I the only way is for me to register again with a new name :) |
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chinkiasu
Master |
05-Jul-2007 11:42
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i think we have no worries that it will hit 6.00 before 24th July.... btw idesa168 if you want to change your status to member you have to email admin... just click the "contact" button on left of this dialogue box. |
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idesa168
Elite |
05-Jul-2007 11:05
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$5.85/$5.90 now while I am writing this! Cheers! |
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idesa168
Elite |
05-Jul-2007 10:39
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hmmm... to the management of ShareJunction. Can you please remove my status as a Senior. I am not a Senior, still learning from all the kind shifus from here. I am not very comfortable with that "Senior" term used. Thank you. |
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idesa168
Elite |
05-Jul-2007 10:37
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oh 007, I can see that the BB are coming in slowly! But they are testing the water now, coming in 50 & 100 lots only. To us, 50 is big, but to BB, it's coconut. I hope to see them come in sooner than later. Good Luck! |
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idesa168
Elite |
05-Jul-2007 10:33
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Dear all the shifu...I think we have crossed in our opinions. 3Q06 & 4Q06 may be bad quarters in earning, due to unforseen mishaps and RM drop due to low demand. But this is business where earning is always inconsistent, especially a company like SPC which has business that is cyclical. Whether we like it or not, 2H06 earning was written on the book and it should be taken in. If we are taking in only the good numbers and forecast, we may end up with very good estimates and "deceive" ourself that it is beautiful. Rolling PE is just an indication to forecast, to get a nearer number as compared to using the historical PE. Like all you shifu had said, the earning depends greatly on the environment that SPC is working in, like tight supply, unrest in the region, Katrina, etc....whichever standard we use to forecast, we all agree with no dispute, that SPC should be valued above $6.00 and should be in the region of $6.20-$6.50, which means that current price of SPC at $5.85 still has another 10-15% of upside. |
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jkbk007
Senior |
05-Jul-2007 10:13
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typo....with the word clearly as it should be clearing. |
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jkbk007
Senior |
05-Jul-2007 10:10
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Wow the SPC is showing more signs of uptrend. Do not be deceived by the low 5.80 price today, 5.85 queue is clearly fast and 5.90 is highly probable today. |
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jkbk007
Senior |
05-Jul-2007 07:17
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My price forecast went off a bit and price did not hit 5.90. There are still lots of players trying to sell at 5.80-5.90 range but I saw signs of increased buyers and a slightly less quantity of sellers. I believe this trend should continue and accelerate as we approach 26th July. There should be little changes today as it is likely that the bulk of the trade be done at 5.80 and perhaps an increased percentage at 5.85. Unless the BBs come in, it will be difficult to see 5.90. |
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jkbk007
Senior |
05-Jul-2007 07:04
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I prefer not to use the rolling eps to forecast as it will not be a good representative of the actual seasonal supply and demand conditions for refined products. In 2H06, the hurricane season was mild and winter did not come in 4Q. Demand for refined products slowed down in 2H06. As a result, global refining capacity exceeded demand and refining margin trended down for 3Q and 4Q. Finally this resulted in a poor 2nd half performance for SPC. As we move into 1Q07, SPC benefited from a late winter and an improved economy condition. In 2Q, global economy conditions remains robust and supply is very tight. This resulted in a typical seasonal high refining margin. For 3Q, an above average hurricane condition is likely to provide support to the tight supply condition. In 4Q, winter season should return to normal and provide support for demand. 2H07 demand will also be dependent on global economic condition. Overall my estimate is that earnings for 2H07 should be lower than 1H07 but remains good. I would prefer to wait for the 2Q results before making further forecast. |
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chinkiasu
Master |
05-Jul-2007 00:24
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I agree Shplayer that 3Q06 not representative... so we should leave it out in our estimation... I then have 4Q06, 1Q07 and 2Q07 which is 11.1+ 21.1+28(our estimate)+ 12.8 (conservative 3Q07 est) = 73. . And assuming PE8.5 we get TP of 6.21 and if we assume PE9 we get TP 6.57.... so i say we have no worries.... |
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shplayer
Elite |
04-Jul-2007 22:47
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Rolling eps is 3Q06, 4Q06, 1Q07 and 2Q07? 3Q06 eps is not representative cos they took a big hit (think about $70mil) to writedown the value of inventory when crude price plunged from about USD80/bbl to about USD50/bbl. |
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idesa168
Elite |
04-Jul-2007 22:40
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OK good night everyone! |
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idesa168
Elite |
04-Jul-2007 22:38
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Here is the link 007. http://news.spc.com.sg/Upload/PressRelease/1Q2007%20Financial%20Statements%20FINAL.pdf. Point 11, says the shut down of 90,000 barrel No 1 complex will shut down from MAY TO JUNE, not July. Oh...this will affect the 2Q EPS isn't it? |
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idesa168
Elite |
04-Jul-2007 22:30
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At 28¢ for 2Q07, the rolling EPS will be 65.5¢. If we take 10X PE, the share price should be in the range of $6.30-$6.50. Hope I am not over optimistic on this "fair value"....007, you are my shifu as far as I have learnt things form you guys here. The plant shut down was from the 1Q07 report. Can trace back from SGX. |
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