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SPC
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jkbk007
Senior |
20-Jul-2007 18:00
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Just to share with a portion of my personal FA on SPC that was written in mid May. The reported refining margin for Q1 is $7. Based on the Singapore petroleum spot price and US crude price, the refining margin is $10.63 for regular gasoline, $12.02 for gasoline, -$12.78 for residual fuel. Looking at the chart for refining margin ranging from April to 9th May, lowest refining margin for Q2 is above the highest refining margin record in Q1. This can only points to significantly higher refining margin in Q2. It is difficult to estimate SPC expected refining margin increase. Regardless I decided to use a conservation estimate of 35% increase in refining margin. This equates to an overall refining margin of $9.45. Taking into account a 9% capacity reduction and assuming that refining margin remains at current level for the entire Q2, I gave a conservative Q2 EPS estimate of 23.3 cents. Total estimated EPS for 1st half of 2007 is 45 cents. This is based on the assumptions that refining margin remains at estimated value of $9.45 per barrel. This assumption should be considered conservative. The high range of my EPS estimate for Q2 is 28 cents. |
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idesa168
Elite |
20-Jul-2007 17:04
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yes sir shplayer. |
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shplayer
Elite |
20-Jul-2007 16:46
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idesa168, eps of 75 - 80cts is not overly optimistic. Bear in mind FY2005 (record year for SPC) it posted eps of 85ct on 502.5 mil issued shares. At 31 March 07, SPC's issued shares stood at 515.9 mil.....which constitutes approx 3% dilution. |
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idesa168
Elite |
20-Jul-2007 15:42
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April this year, my posting with shplayer discussing about earning of SPC (when SPC was trading below $5.00) and the numbers I "projected" makes me a little uneasy and nervious. Come to think about it, it's nothing to be fearful, we are there now! I will ride with SPC based on all of your new projection, cheers to all!...................shplayer.... Q1 @21¢, lets est Q2 which will be better than Q1 to be @26¢ conservatively, we will have 47¢ for the 1H07. Even with close down of refinery for maintenance on the 2nd half of the yr, it shd be able to amass another 28¢ to 33¢. This will make the total of about 75¢ to 80¢ in EPS. Based on 8x PE (currently trading), the share price will be ard the range of $6.00 to $6.40 (+45¢ of dividends you mentioned). I am a little nervous now seeing the figure I projected....am I too optimistic? Whichever the case, I will be holding on for a long long time. |
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idesa168
Elite |
20-Jul-2007 14:48
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What watch investment? Any lobang, must share leh! I love to dig company info also! |
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idesa168
Elite |
20-Jul-2007 14:46
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Agree with CKS...Kakap is contributing about 2950 bpd. When Oyong kicks in, an addition of 6,000 bpd a whopping 150% more from the current output. Even if the RM drops for 3Q, I am sure the quantity will cover the differences. I am staying put, no move unless it hit near $8.00! If end of the year the mkt is very optimistic about SPC and trade at 11-12 X PE and the EPS is 80¢, it's a cool $8.80-$9.60...hahaha!......jkbk007, get well soon and come back to the battle! |
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chinkiasu
Master |
20-Jul-2007 14:43
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ok sir 007... roger that... btw, I will now go search for that watch investment and maybe join you... thanks for the tip.... |
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jkbk007
Senior |
20-Jul-2007 14:39
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kiasu, I am not saying SPC won't go $7. On the contrary I think SPC has the potential to hit over $8. Just that it is not likely to surge up as fast as my new watch investment . |
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chinkiasu
Master |
20-Jul-2007 14:24
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ok, noted 007... do stay around even though you are not vested... and keep well.. I think however differently... going forward 2H07 would be better than 2H06 because SRC has now completed the final upgrading of the plant, and 90,000 bpd capacity back on line. Also on top of this Ouyong upstream will also be giving a big boost to profit line as oil prices are now at record prices and will be likely to remain so (even Bernake say so )... so i believe SPC has still very much more upside at least to 7.00 |
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jkbk007
Senior |
20-Jul-2007 14:03
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Ops went well and according to the doctor I am recovering very well. However there still much pain from the ops. Hack with pain, time to make more money from the stock market. I already lost almost 15k of potential profit. As for the refining margin, the figure posted is for July and thus has no bearing to Q2 results. I am not sure if 30cts is possible but I see little harm in hanging till the report is out. SPC went up a fair amount and there is less potential on the upside since the data I posted shows that RF has went down pretty much. Personally I view the data as negative as RF is no longer fantastic like those in Q2. For now I am not vested in SPC. I am into a watch investment. |
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chinkiasu
Master |
20-Jul-2007 11:25
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hi, welcome back..007.. wish you a speedy recovery .. and I guess as you are now posting the ops went well.. yes thanks for the latest input... the figures meant that recent refining margin should then be in the region of US$4 - $18 or depending on the mix of products of SPC refinery capability (got to do more research on this) about US$11? so looks like eps for2Q07 should be at least 30cts? |
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idesa168
Elite |
20-Jul-2007 10:27
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Ohh...jkbk007, sorry to hear that you sufferring from acute appendicitis. Take care. Forget about the wealth that may have been increased these few session, HEALTH is more important. It's still not too late to get in SPC. |
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jkbk007
Senior |
20-Jul-2007 10:17
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Guys, Congratulation guys but I am already out as I was hospitalised for acute appendicitis. I am still recuperating. This Goldman Sachs report comes in really late. I wonder if they knew this long long ago. There is no doubt that Q2 will be outstanding. Here is something really latest. I have intentionally remove certain figures so you will require a bit more effort to interpret. CRUDE OIL & PRODUCTS Jul 18 CRUDE (FOB origin) US$/barrel Close Dubai (1-Mth F) 69.44 PRODUCT US$/barrel (FOB S'pore) Close Change Naphtha 73.45 Jet Kerosene 87.40 |
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Pinnacle
Master |
20-Jul-2007 09:51
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Goldman Sachs - BUYTP - $7.20We expect SPC to announce its 2Q07 results after market close on July 25. We continue to expect 2Q07E net profit to rise 8% yoy and 31% qoq to S$147 mn, which we believe would be a record high for SPC, on the back of strong gross refining margins (GRM). The Singapore complex GRM averaged US$11.22/bbl in 2Q07, up 5% yoy and 42% qoq respectively. We expect SPC?s 2Q07E GRM to be about US$9.50/bbl vs. US$8.00+/bbl and ~US$7.00/bbl reported by SPC for 2Q06 & 1Q07 respectively. We reiterate our Buy rating on SPC and our 12-m target price of S$7.20 (6X 2008E EV/EBITDA), implying potential upside of 14% plus a high div yield of 6.8%. |
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stupidfool
Senior |
19-Jul-2007 17:30
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wonder if it is a good time to buy SPC now? |
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Pinnacle
Master |
19-Jul-2007 16:56
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This is minor correction. Its still close to 52wk high. Next week should see lot of actions. And if the result from M1 and Singpost to be announced before SPC is excellent, the build up to 25 Jul will be bullish. Should be seeing new 52wk high again next week. |
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idesa168
Elite |
19-Jul-2007 16:53
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CKS...I predicted last night but did not post, in case kena throw egg...$6.20...hehehe! You see SPC has been running from $5.80 to yesterday close of $6.30 without any pull back (almost 7-8 trading days). It's time for a correction which is healthy. The longer this correction the more POWDERFUL it will be for another chiong! |
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chinkiasu
Master |
19-Jul-2007 16:42
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obviously skewed play.. heavy intervention by some BBs... linked to warrants datelines?? but no worries, folks the fundamentals are sound... the SPC elephant is just taking a pause for a cool drink.... no predictions today... |
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Pinnacle
Master |
19-Jul-2007 09:39
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Singapore Petroleum Co (SPC) ? SPC shares rose to a record on speculation a surge in refining profit may boost second quarter earnings. The shares gained as much as 25 cents, or 4.1%, to an all-time high of $6.40, and closed at $6.30 for a 2.4% gain. Outages at US refineries and rising demand for petrol and naphtha boosted second quarter Asian refining profits to the highest since Hurricanes Katrina and Rita disrupted fuel supplies in the Gulf Coast in September 2005. That's fed through to Asia and Europe as the US increased petrol imports. ExxonMobil Corp, Royal Dutch Shell Plc, and a venture between Chevron Corp and Singapore Petroleum Co run refineries in Singapore.
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chinkiasu
Master |
18-Jul-2007 23:52
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not only that, it is a fact that the price of oil will trend upwards for next few years just a short while ago.. this is stated by Bernanke, in answering to specific questions after delivering his semi-annual report to Congress, reiterated that inflation remains the biggest risk to the economic outlook and said that an easing of inflation pressures has "yet to be convincingly demonstrated". He said hefty rises in food and energy prices have pushed up overall inflation and thereby eroded Americans' incomes, which he called "unwelcome developments." meanwhile Xinhua reported VIENNA, July 17 (Xinhua) -- The daily average oil price of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) hit a new record of 72.83 U.S. dollars per barrel on Monday, up 0.34 dollars from the previous trading day and 0.16 dollars higher than the previous record set last August. The OPEC's weekly average prices also reached a record high of 71.86 dollars per barrel, 0.14 dollars higher than the previous record set in the second week of August 2006, the cartel's secretariat said on Tuesday. Analysts attributed soaring oil prices to a high demand for gasoline in Europe and the United States, a shortage of refining capabilities, the volatile security situation in OPEC member country Nigeria, the cartel's refusal to increase output and speculation in the oil market. In addition, the market was still very sensitive to uncertainties in Iran's nuclear issue and hurricanes in the north Atlantic. Therefore, international crude oil prices would hover at the high point, while supply pressure could not be eased in the near future. The daily demand for crude oil in the international market next year would increase 1.3 million barrels from the current 85.6 million barrels this year, lower than the 2.2-million-barrel jump predicted by the International Energy Agency (IEA), said the monthly report for July issued by the cartel's secretariat on Monday. The OPEC believed that, due to rising cost of energy, new measures of energy saving and alternative energy, demand for crude oil would be reduced. |
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