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STX Pan Ocean
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ygc91285
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11-Dec-2007 22:41
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Generally the shipping stock recover from heavy sell down last month in anticipation that global economy wont be in bad recession next year...more positive news from US will definitely help push this counter to north direction. Expect volatile ride in the coming months |
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dinola
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11-Dec-2007 17:39
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Was watching CNBC.. one analyst predict dry bulk shipping rate to increase more next yr. |
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philipsim
Member |
11-Dec-2007 17:03
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the us fed rate cut? |
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huatah
Veteran |
11-Dec-2007 16:49
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hmm.. I wonder wat's the force behind today tat this counter starts to move..... |
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huatah
Veteran |
01-Dec-2007 21:53
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Woh.. i m delighted to see PO hitting abv $3 once again.. hopefully by end Dec... it hit $4... wahahaha... |
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nickyng
Supreme |
29-Nov-2007 09:03
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i will be back :))))))))) |
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louis_leecs
Elite |
29-Nov-2007 08:46
Yells: "half cash" |
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kill shortist day,,,,,,,,,,cheer........300 akang datang |
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Pinnacle
Master |
29-Nov-2007 08:44
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STX Pan Ocean Co. Limited (the ?Group?) has entered into a shipbuilding contract with New Times Shipbuilding Co. Ltd, China, in respect of the construction of three Capesized bulk carriers at a price of mid US$80 million per unit to be delivered in the second half of 2010. The construction of the new carriers is to strengthen the competitiveness of the Group?s dry bulk fleet. |
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Brendan982201
Member |
28-Nov-2007 17:33
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my company frenz said STX PO got higher return for yr 2008, so it is not true at all? : ( disappointed |
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jennlsk
Member |
23-Nov-2007 17:14
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DJ MARKET TALK: STX Pan Ocean Down 5.6%, Off Low; S$2.48 Support (2007-11-23 06:24:00)
0624 GMT [Dow Jones] STX Pan Ocean (V33.SG) down 5.6% at S$2.72, falling for fourth straight day, but off session low of S$2.60, as traders accumulate on weakness, betting more upside on stock as dry bulk carrier seeks to allow arbitrage trade between Singapore- and Korea-listed shares (028670.SE). Dealer says stock''s weakness largely due to profit-taking after strong rally since August; adds decline offering "those who think they might have missed the boat to enter before it''s too late." Firm plans to make stock fungible by March next year. Next support at 150-day moving average of around S$2.48 if session low gives way. (FKH) |
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Z040069
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23-Nov-2007 15:47
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IS there news that Yangzijiang is dumped by Sembmarine? Only know they dump cosco |
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Applet123
Member |
23-Nov-2007 15:23
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You should enter when the Dry Bulk Index is going up. Now, it is going down quite alot. http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=bdiy&exch=IND&x=15&y=11 |
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teresa
Senior |
23-Nov-2007 15:14
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Does anyone knows if this counter is being dump by sembmar like yangzijiang? Don't know when to enter, as $2.60 + looks like support but could drop further with more dumping. Any advice when to enter as don't want to catch falling knife. |
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jennlsk
Member |
22-Nov-2007 14:55
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DJ MARKET TALK: STX Pan Ocean Down 3.8%; Next Support At S$2.95 (2007-11-22 01:52:00)
0152 GMT [Dow Jones] STX Pan Ocean (V33.SG) down 3.8% at S$3.04; breaks through support at yesterday''s intraday low of S$3.10. Stock hit by drop in Baltic Dry Index, but analyst at local house says it''s not a big worry as index still at very high levels historically, fundamentals sound; puts weakness down to profit-taking. "People are just taking money off the table; the shares have had a good run." Low volume, oversold signals from RSI, stochastic, suggest shares should find floor soon; support tipped at Oct. 4 close of S$2.95. Korean listing (028670.SE) down 1.3% at KRW3,710. (KIG) |
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Pinnacle
Master |
19-Nov-2007 23:22
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Credit Suisse - 3Q07 results above our and market expectations; share fungibility could come sooner than expected ● STX Pan Ocean (STXP) just reported above our and market expectation 3Q07 net profits of US$144 mn. Margins declined slightly from vessel redeployment and weaker non-bulk results. ● STXP believes we have entered a ?upercycle?and remains bullish on the sector outlook, forecasting FY08 BDI to average 8,500. STXP still has 57% open vessel days for the next 1 year. ● Share fungibility could come sooner than expected in 1H08, in our view. We understand the company is in the process of seeking waivers for the various regulatory hurdles. STXP recently reaffirmed their goal to become a world? top five shipping company by 2010. We believe besides aggressive fleet expansion, there may also be M&A activities ahead if STXP is to grow its proportion of non-bulk revenue to 30% by 2010. ● We have left our earnings and target price unchanged. Trading at only 2.1x FY08 P/B and 6.1x FY08 P/E, valuations look attractive with 40% forecasted FY08 ROE. Our target price S$4.90 is based on 2.9x FY08 P/B (15% disc. to FY08 target ROE/CoE of 3.5x). Strong 3Q07 results above our and market expectations Net profits at US$144 mn was 3% above our forecast of US$140 mn and likely above market expectation of US$125 mn (in our view). 9M sales grew 84% YoY to US$3.7 bn on significantly stronger freight rates (9M07 BDI average 6,077 vs 9M06 BDI average 2,878). Overall gross margins declined marginally QoQ to 11.6% due to lower owned margins (40.8% vs 44.2% in 2Q07) mitigated by 0.6 p.p. increase in chartered-in margins to 7.3%. This is partly due to vessel redeployment, with owned vessels carrying out more COAs while vessels are chartered-in on longer-term and leased out on short-term time charter to optimise margins. Non-bulk margins likely declined, dragged down by weaker tanker rates. YTD FFA net losses continued to narrow to US$14.4 mn from US$30.7 mn at 1H07. This was is mainly due to a turnaround in 3Q07 with a valuation gain of US$19 mn and lower realised transaction loss of US$2.7 mn. Optimistic on higher freight rates into 1Q08 We remain optimistic on the sector fundamentals, moving through the seasonal peak with harvest season underway, winter energy needs and potential iron ore stockpiling. We think the market overreacted to recent BDI weakness on news that China is refusing to accept higher iron ore prices. While the risk is on 1H08 cargo volume being depressed if negotiation drags on (like in 2005), this only delays the demand, rather than reduces it. China iron ore imports remain strong, up 36% YoY in October, higher than YTD growth of 17% YoY. The BDI has also rebounded to a new record of 11,039 and with a weak Australia harvest forecasted, more grains exports are likely to come from Latin America, benefiting the longer distance trade. Fungibility could happen as early as 1Q08, if not 1H08 We understand the company is currently discussing with the regulatory authorities to waive the 30 day review requirement for every share transfer. In addition, due to the potential legal responsibilities on the Central Depository (CDP) in Singapore, we believe STXP could try to seek a waiver from Korea Financial Supervisory Commission on the need for CDP to make a submission on behalf of shareholders for each share transfer. Waivers could potentially come as early as 1Q08, if not 1H08, which would be positive for the Singapore-listed shares with potential narrowing of the discount gap from share fungibility. M&A activities to grow non-bulk segment? In our recent discussions with the company, STXP reaffirmed their goal of becoming a top five shipping company in the world by 2010, with revenue split 70:30 between drybulk and non-bulk. STXP aims to grow its drybulk fleet to 550 vessels compared to 350 vessels currently. With drybulk freight rates continuing to outperform, we believe only through acquisitions (rather than organic growth) can the company possibly achieve its goal of diversifying its revenue base. |
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Pinnacle
Master |
19-Nov-2007 23:17
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Goldman Sachs - NDR takeaways: Focus on the cycle and share fungibility Source of opportunity We hosted a post-results non-deal road show (NDR) for STX Pan Ocean (STXPO) in Asia. Investors were focused on the dry bulk cycle and plans to make the Singapore and Korean listed shares fungible. STXPO is in the process of working with the regulators to make its shares fungible. The company aims to achieve this by March 2008, which we believe could be a catalyst for share performance. In our view, STXPO is well leveraged to the high freight rate environment and appears attractively valued even at this stage of the cycle. We reiterate our Buy rating for the stock, which presents 41% upside to our target price of S$5.00. Catalyst (1) Continued high freight rates into 1Q08 on seasonal strength and iron ore stock piling. (2) 4Q07 results - we expect earnings growth momentum to continue. (3) Korea Express exiting court receivership, potentially in 1H08: STXPO reiterated it will either take control if the price is attractive, otherwise it will sell its stake. (4) Fungibility between the Singapore and Korea listed shares would likely lead to convergence in valuations. Valuation Our S$5.00 12-month SOTP based target price reflects a fleet value multiple of 2X, based on forward returns on fleet of 17%. Our target price implies 10X our 2008E EPS. STXPO stock is currently trading at 1.7X fleet and just at a P/E of 7.2X for 2008E Key risks Potential policy missteps by China to cool its economy. Faster than expected delivery of dry bulk vessels leading to higher vessel supply growth. |
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