Before i get started, I need to write some disclaimer -> Only to be used for educational purposes and for discussion purposes. Use it on your own risks. Dont have to follow me. I m not an expert because I m still learning.

This is my HUMBLE observations and analysis below.

PART 1: BUYING WITHOUT CONFIRMATION

Ok i will start off as being too trusting and lazy to find out facts. On 4oct morning, I read the OUB news about:

“DJ MARKET TALK: Charts Tip Oceanus At Buy, S$0.07 Target -UOB-KH

03 Oct 2012 16:41“

Being lazy to find out facts, I purchased 200lots immediately. I never doubt UOB technical analysis.

PART 2: REGRET

Out of my own curiosity, at the end of 4oct trading day, I opened up my technical analysis(TA) software. From the TA chart, I saw a black long candle and feel that something is not right. Black long candlestick mean strong selling. Ok I told myself that never mind since I m already in it. No point crying over split milk. I decided give some more time to check the market sentiment...

By the way, that night, I happened to surf upon this website below and found this shortist (a person who short sell stocks). I m not promoting him because I dont even know him.

http://stockmarketmindgames.blogspot.sg/2012/10/oceanus-40min-job.html

Oh no, on 5oct , despite the STI went up about 30pts, oceanus stock closed lower than the previous day closing price. On that day, it s also a black candle but a shorter one. I didnt sell my lots off because I dont like to do panic selling.

Just for your information, I also checked all the candlesticks about 5 trading days before the UOB analysis (which is on 3oct). The candlesticks on these 5 previous trading days formed Dojis with low volume which mean the opening and the closing price is the equal. This only signifies that the uncertainty in the market.

However, on 3oct, it s a long white candlestick with high volume. White long candlestick means strong buying. Thus the price definitely will be pushed up. One thing puzzles me is that this announcement was made 20minutes before the closing of market on 3oct, how come there were already so many buyers before this announcement??? Unless someone traded thousands of lots at 455pm last minute??? Can someone enlighten me on this?

PART 2: HOMEWORK TIME

2a) The Company

With full of suspicion, I decided to do homework over the weekend day and night. I checked up the company profile. The below are the some links that I found:

AGM part1

http://www.nextinsight.net/index.php/story-archive-mainmenu-60/916-2012/5338-oceanus-

AGM part2

http://www.nextinsight.net/index.php/story-archive-mainmenu-60/916-2012/5351-oceanus-agm-

This website shows u who are the people dumping oceanus stocks

http://www.insideralpha.com/reports/overview.php?sort=Date_of_filing& stockCode=579& chartDateRange=6m& insiderTypeSort=

Oceanus Annual Report announced this year aug2012

www.oceanus.com.sg/annualreport/Oceanus_Ar_2011.pdf

Read all SGX announcements

Besides the dumping of stocks by shareholders, take a look at ANNOUNCEMENT OF CESSATION AS NON-EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR(Lian Jian Hua)

Again, Disclaimer : I m not related to Lian Jian Hua and not related to anyone in Oceanus Group.

The above are not all the links that I found.

Just a note... Besides looking at the Singapore stock market, please go and take a look at the Taipei stock market for any news on the Oceanus group.

Just my observation, I put disclaimer too. Since there are so many Oceanus shares are issued into the stock market (including those earlier this year), I calculated the EPS (Earnings per share) and it is a negative value. I wont say more. Check how to calculate, see http://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/eps.asp

Anyway, just do your own homework and it will be more meaningful :)

Ok next, the technical analysis by UOB...

2b) Technical Analysis

Let s startoff by reading what the UOB analyst wrote:

*****************************************************

UOB KayHian technical analysis says. " The stock could potentially break above its mid Bollinger band with a base support at S$0.05. The Stochastics indicator looks poised to form a bullish crossover and bullish divergences at its MACD indicator could be in play." It tips placing stops below S$0.045. The stock is up 2.0% at S$0.052 in volume of more than 3% of shares changing hands on the SGX. (leslie.shaffer@dowjones.com)

Before I say anything, I would like to put disclaimer again -> Just for education and discussion purposes. Use it on your own risks. We are not here to criticize and it s just exchanging of thoughts.

To be fair, we can only utilize the data (including the intra day data) before the UOB announcement,

From the Oceanus Technical Anaylsis Chart(Download it from any free TA software),

1. “The stock could potentially break above its mid Bollinger band with a base support at S$0.05.”

   - Ok. This part, I agreed.

2. “The Stochastics indicator looks poised to form a bullish crossover....”

   - Let me explain the concept of stochastic bullish crossover and in order to have a buy signal, the %D must be below the Smoothed %D. Buy the stock when %D crosses up the Smoothed %D.

   - From the chart on 3 oct, I observed that %D is already above the Smoothed %D and there is a possibility of crossing downwards. Thus, I dont see any bullishness at all.

**To know more in depth on how to calculate %D and smoothed %D, please surf the web.

2. “....and bullish divergences at its MACD indicator could be in play.”

   - Yes. I saw 4red1green on the MacD Histogram. 4Red1green is a buy signal. There is a BUT.... the MacD line in the Oceanus TA chart is still in the negative region. If the momentum has changed, the MacD line should do a crossover from negative to positive.

   - ok let s talk about MacD Histogram bullish divergences. It is only bullish when the stock price falls to lower low but the MacD histogram traces a higher low.

   From the Oceanus TA chart, no matter how hard that I tried to draw in order to confirm bullishness, i still cannot. In the first place, the MacD histogram does not even trace a higher low (see the period from 3sept to 17sept).

   In order to confirm that my drawing technique is correct, I traced back to the earlier data. The most recent bullish divergences that i saw is the period from 11may to ard 13jun.

3. “It tips placing stops below S$0.045.”

   - I believed that there are many ways to calculate stoploss. In this case, I put 1 bid below the support (0.05) due to market uncertainty. Thus, my stoploss is S$0.049. Better exit earlier than sorry. We can always use the money for other counters.

5. “The stock is up 2.0% at S$0.052 in volume of more than 3% of shares changing hands on the SGX.”

   - I guess only intra-day trader will know because i am not.

PART 3: HOPE ANALYSIS

On monday oct 8, STI went down.

Again, I used hope analysis on monday. I was hoping for a reversal from bear to bull. If i see a hammer candlestick(to indicate signals of bullishness) at the end of day, maybe tuesday is an upday for oceanus?? I hope and hope and hope... Because I also dont want to lose my hard-earned money...

Unfortunately, tuesday which is today, the stock is not moving up. Always at 0.049.

Ok I ll juz sell it off since it already hit my stoploss.

Please take note that in the coming month November (19nov i think), the oceanus group will announce its 3^rd quarter results. Dont expect good results because the company is still re-structuring. Thus, this stock MIGHT (I said might) go even lower. So why take the risk when u know u can exit earlier?

PART 4: LESSONS LEARNT

Never go against the stock trend. I know it s downtrend and yet i want to go against it.

Never totally believe in news. Do your own analysis.

Read the correct forum and not those punters.

PART 2: CONCLUSION

I didnt say that Oceanus Group is not a good company (my disclaimer here) but maybe not, it s not the correct time to enter yet. The company needs time.

There are a lot of major stakeholders in oceanus group.

Therefore, i believe that it will not closed down. Even if this big company really closed down (like the leiman brothers), it will not be so soon.

Thank you for reading my humble report. Please take note my disclaimer applies everywhere in this report.

Good day. Happy Trading.