Hi Elf, I must admit I'm an ardan fan of this thread. I'm greatful to all you guys whom are always willing to share your knowledge and experiences to small fries and noobs (like myself) I really appreciate all the information and teachings here

It always intrigue me how you can tell which BB plays the stocks, especially how you can tell ML shorted specific counters. Care to share this knowledge? I know you may not want to go into specific details (you mentioned before that you don't want to get killed by the BBs..which I can understand) how abt some subtle hint?

Also, some knowledge of how and the ways the BB plays the stocks will also be useful.. can quote some generic examples, what kind of 'patterns' to look out for will do

It always occurs to me that one has to have insider knowledge or info to know these kinds of stuff.. but maybe there do appear to be some other ways/observation to gather these info?

Thanks! And keep up the good work (or should I say..teachings) for the education of the forumers here

elfinchilde      ( Date: 17-Sep-2008 16:15) Posted: two what?? the big 5 were (in order from 1 to 5): Goldman sachs, morgan stanley, merrill lynch, lehman brothers, bear sterns. The last two have collapsed, ML sold itself to BoA. Left standing are GS and MS. The first, especially, by virtue of an exceptional team of prop traders. can't beat them on the markets. Note that MS and GS control the ICE exchange (which trades oil). GS' balance sheet is better than MS, because they wisely side-stepped the subprime loan. Essentially, these 'investment' and 'wealth management' banks generate income by massively overleveraging and in essence, punting on the global markets. Which was why i had said that to put out fires in their own backyards, they short Asia. Easiest way to make income. imagine: they have billions, we have millions. Queues are thin. Who wins?   So of the foreigners eventually left to play the game: GS, MS, UBS and Citi. Good. because ML is one of the biggest shortists around. They were one of those who tanked cosco to its pitiable state today. The less of these big guns there are, the better it is for real investors. Plus the lesson to them should make them more wary of overleveraging now, which is why, i suspect, once all this is over, you'll find more stable markets since less foreign BBs to rampantly and blatantly short/ramp up counters.   at least, i should hope so.

care to share your strategy/ideas?
I thought following the trend is correct. Sail with the wind as the Chinese Proverb says.

elf...same over here for me...unable to sleep looking at the market...although personally paused trading for quite some time due to the volatility ...

tonight's DOW movement indeed extremely unusual in their intra-day movement...all it takes is within seconds to minutes to rocket high and next moment plunge...and the cycle continues in such a crazy momentum 

not traded...but seeing the intra-day movement situation like this ...makes me can't sleep too...only more confused..

elfinchilde      ( Date: 19-Sep-2008 02:12) Posted: i can't sleep.   am when i should be . damn it. watching the DJIA. it's hilarious. goes from -100 to positive in like, a few minutes. meanwhile, gold is shooting through the roof--largest one day rise in the past 10 years yesterday--as panicked investors pile in like mad cattle. it has moved something like 11 standard deviations out of the norm. Banks are falling over themselves to merge, and even in s'pore, we have a run on poor AIA. Certainly extraordinary conditions. For those who haven't lost their heads yet and are puzzled at all this, (alternatively you're one of those who have lost their heads and have bailed out of your insurance policy plus sold off all your counters).....what you're seeing here is pure psychology: Fear. Quite simply, people aren't thinking any more. they're just stampeding with the herd. And throwing out quite a few babies with the bath water. Above TA and FA is the factor of market psychology. In Graham's words (i can't remember the exact phrase), that "The market is a pendulum that swings forever between unwarranted pessimism and irrational exuberance." Greed, fear, blind hope. You understand these three and their dynamics, you understand the basic instincts that rule the market. So general advice to all (my mailbox is kinda swamped, apologies if i take longer to reply): step back, take a deep breath. Really--and i mean really--look at your portfolio. Are they dud stocks, or good stocks? What makes you say so? What is your plan? And if you don't have one, it's time to start devising one. When fear controls the market and everyone is behaving like mindless sheep or stampeding lemmings, the way to counteract is through pure, cool rationality. Had said many times before, that anyone can profit in a bull market. But the true test of a trader/investor is in a bear market. How cool are you in the face of mass hysteria? This is exactly what will determine your profit level. So really. Am putting out here a call for calmness and rationality. Mindless stampedes are for cattle, not investors nor traders. cheers!