| Latest Forum Topics / GMG Global |
 Post Reply
|
|
Rubber prices
|
|
|
Nostradamus
Supreme |
21-Nov-2007 22:40
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Tokyo rubber futures ended lower on Wed after oil-led buying tapered off and the yen rose to a 2-year high against the dollar, but dealers said worries about supplies underpinned sentiment. The benchmark Apr '08 on TOCOM hit an intraday high of 279 yen per kg as crude oil spiked to a record high just shy of US$100 a barrel. The contract ended 1.5 yen per kg lower at 271.6 yen. "The market has come down because of a stronger yen. I guess 270 should be a good support level, although I think the market may still see selling pressure from the funds," said a dealer in Tokyo. The dollar hit a record low against the euro and a basket of major currencies after the Federal Reserve said U.S. growth would likely slow in '08, underscoring market expectations for more monetary easing. On the physical front, heavy rains in Indonesia's growing island of Sumatra disrupted tapping and curbed supplies, while dealers noted steady interest from buyers in S'pore, China and US. "There are plenty of prospective buyers around but it looks like sellers are playing hard to get. That's also the reason why physical prices go up again," said a dealer in Pekanbaru, the provincial capital of Riau in Sumatra. "There were some deals overnight but not many sellers," he said. "The market has rebounded on the fact that it has been oversold, so I am not sure if it will be able to test the recent highs," said a dealer in Thailand's southern city of Hat Yai. "There will be resistance around 280 yen. Demand from China is there and it doesn't matter whether it's willing to pay the current prices or not," he said. China saw its NR imports rise 2.4% to 1,350,000 tonnes in Jan to Oct '07, compared with the same period last year. Despite the TOCOM market's recovery from this week's sell off, open interest in rubber futures is the lowest since Jan 25 '05. That suggested the late rally was partly fuelled by unwinding of hedging short positions by trading firms. Unless unwinding of the longs stops and building new long positions resumes in rubber futures, the TOCOM market looks to stay vulnerable to selling, analysts said. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
Nostradamus
Supreme |
20-Nov-2007 22:54
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
The most active contract for Tokyo rubber futures ended 1.3% higher on Tue as bargain hunters flocked into the market after the price fell to its lowest in almost 7 weeks. The key rubber futures contract on TOCOM for Apr '08 delivery hit a low of 263 yen per kg, its lowest level since Oct 4, as a firmer yen triggered selling. The contract ended 3.6 yen higher at 273.1 yen. Dealers expected volatile trade in coming days with investors likely to book profits from a recent run-up to a 16-month high. "I see profit taking which may take a little while," said Tetsuya Kaneko, chief researcher at the Marubeni Institute in Tokyo. "But the trend is kind of strong, supported by strong demand in fast-growing countries such as China," he said. China, the world's largest rubber consumer, saw its NR imports rise 2.4% to 1.35m tonnes in Jan to Oct '07, compared with the same period last year. The price of tyre grade and latex dropped to reflect early losses in Tokyo but heavy rains in Indonesia raised concerns over supplies. Tyre makers are likely to buy on dips, said dealers. "The key level which we need to look at is somewhere around 260 yen. I think the market is already oversold, although there's also a possiblity we may hit 250 yen," said a dealer in Thailand's southern city of Hat Yai. Dealers said TOCOM's run-up to a 16-month high of 312.2 yen on Nov 7 was mainly driven by buying from investment funds seeking higher returns in a wider range of assets, including commodities. Crude oil was approaching a record high at that time, bolstering expectations of more usage of NR, instead of SR. But oil peaked on Nov 7 and reversed course, prompting a rush by fund managers to unwind long rubber futures positions. Trading houses also locked in profits by unwinding short hedging positions. A lack of participation from domestic investors means that TOCOM open interest could fall further unless fund managers stop selling and resume building long positions. Dealers said heavy rains that hit various parts of the growing island of Sumatra could help cushion the fall in prices as the downpour has disrupted tapping. Rains have stopped in Thailand, allowing tappers to return to plantations. Separately, Japanese crude rubber inventories rose 1.2% to 8,950 tonnes by Nov 10 from 8,843 tonnes on Oct 31, the Rubber Trade Association of Japan said on Tue. Rubber inventories, which are reported every 10 days, have climbed steadily, rising by 19% since reaching a 2-year low of 7,511 tonnes on Sep 30. Still, they were about 5% below the year-earlier levelof 9,404 tonnes. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
|
|
|
Nostradamus
Supreme |
20-Nov-2007 00:18
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Rubber futures on TOCOM closed lower for 3 days in a row Mon, losing the early gains to renewed selling from late morning to afternoon. The benchmark, most distant Apr '08 contract finished at 269.5 yen per kg, down 3.5 yen from Fri. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
zhuge_liang
Supreme |
17-Nov-2007 21:47
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Tokyo rubber futures were forecast to slip 1% by the end of Nov amid volatile trade dominated mostly by oil prices, a Reuters poll showed on Nov 16. But limited supply in the physical market was expected to prevent a significant fall in prices, the Reuters survey of 10 analysts and dealers showed. The benchmark rubber contract on the TOCOM, currently Apr '08, could slide to 292.5 yen per kg by the end of Nov, down about 1% from 295.7 yen at the end of Oct, according to the poll's median forecast. The forecasts ranged from 250 yen to 330 yen, with most analysts expecting TOCOM prices to remain firm but below the key psychological level of 300 yen due to profit taking after strong gains last week driven by oil prices. "Crude oil will continue to be a leading factor influencing rubber," a Tokyo-based broker said. TOCOM rubber was forecast to slide further to 280.0 yen per kg by the end of Dec, according to the survey. "Funds are expected to lock in profits ahead of their year-end book closings," said Hisaaki Tasaka, an analyst at trading house Ace Koeki Co. Ltd. However, TOCOM prices were not expected to fall sharply in Nov due to limited supply in the physical market after persistents rains in Thailand, dealers said. "When you get many days of rain, it could cause the trees to become diseased and in really bad cases you might even have to cut them down," a Tokyo-based dealer said. Physical prices were also expected to remain on extended dry weather in Indonesia. A survey of 6 dealer and analysts showed physical prices rising slightly further by the end of Nov. But physical prices were expected to weaken by the end of Dec as drier weather comes to southern Thailand later this month, allowing farmers to tap more latex. "I think the market will start to see more supplies from Thailand, which could weigh on prices," Tasaka said. "Selling by funds will have a major effect to push down prices by the end of the year," he added. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
Nostradamus
Supreme |
16-Nov-2007 22:56
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Tokyo rubber futures dropped to their lowest in 5 weeks on Fri, falling as much as 4.1% on fund selling, fuelled by stronger Japanese yen. The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for Apr delivery fell 5.2 yen to settle at 273.0 yen per kg. Earlier, it fell as low as 266.8 yen before short-covering set in. "It's Fri. Players and also funds who took short-sale positions could cover their positions to grab profit ahead of weekend," one dealer said. Sentiment weakened further as the key contract dipped below the 200-day MA of 271.3 yen. It was the first time since Oct 10 that a key contract fell below the long-term MA. Investment funds were keen to sell TOCOM rubber due to the strength in the yen against the dollar, which makes dollar-based rubber commodity cheaper in yen. "Rubber has been dragged down by weakness in oil prices and precious metals today, but we are starting to see some bids. I think falls will be limited from here," said Takashi Ogura, manager of risk management at Kanetsu Asset Management. But dealers said they expected TOCOM prices to rebound next week after short-covering in late Fri's afternoon session pushed prices to finish above the 200-day MA. In the physical market, rubber prices dropped again, tracking falls on TOCOM. Physical trade was expected to be busy as lower prices would attract more buyers to the market, traders said. But physical prices were not expected to drop significantly as supply was limited by bad weather in the producing countries of Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia. Rain affected supply in Thailand's south and Malaysia while Indonesia was hit as a longer-than-expected dry season cut supply in Palembang, a key rubber area in the south. Seasonal rains in Medan in northern Sumatra also disrupted tapping. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
|
|
|
Nostradamus
Supreme |
15-Nov-2007 23:46
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Tokyo rubber futures plummet toward the close Thu, giving up all of the early gains on renewed selling with underlying technical sentiment staying bearish. The benchmark rubber contract on the TOCOM for Apr delivery finished at 278.2 yen per kg, down 7.8 yen from Wed, after briefly falling by a daily limit of 8 yen. The benchmark rubber contract though remained below near- and medium-term technical trend lines, including the 10-day MA of 298.9 yen and the 25-day MA of 291.1 yen. On Wed, it dropped as far as 282.3 yen - the lowest since Oct 25. It had fallen nearly 10% from a 16-month high of 312.2 yen on Nov 7. "I think TOCOM could be in a ranged trade for a while, with oil prices and the yen playing a leading factor," a dealer said. TOCOM rubber gained some support on Thu as the yen edged down against the dollar and oil prices rose, with traders' focus also on supply conditions in Thailand. In the physical market, rubber prices were higher, supported by rising futures contract prices on TOCOM, but trading was thin as rising prices kept buyers on the sidelines. Physical prices were likely to remain strong next week due to persistent rain in Thailand, the world biggest producer, and Malaysia, the third biggest, traders said. Supply also fell in Indonesia due to rain in Medan, the key rubber growing area in northern Sumatra while a longer-than-expected dry season cut supply in Palembang, a key rubber area in the south, an Indonesian trader said. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
zhuge_liang
Supreme |
14-Nov-2007 21:26
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Rubber futures on TOCOM bounced back slightly Wed, recouping losses on renewed buying toward the end of the session. The benchmark, most distant Apr '08 contract finished at 286 yen per kg, up 0.1 yen from Tue. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
Nostradamus
Supreme |
13-Nov-2007 19:19
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Tokyo rubber futures dropped to near a 3-week low on Tue, briefly falling by an expanded daily limit of 12 yen due to the yen's strength against the dollar and further losses for oil prices. The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for Apr delivery fell 10.7 yen to end at 285.9 yen ($2.62) per kg. Heightened credit concerns have hammered U.S. share prices, leading investment funds to unload positions in risky assets such as commodities. The TOCOM daily trading limit was widened to 12 yen on Tue, a day after the key contract dropped the daily 8-yen limit. TOCOM rubber has also been undermined by the yen's climb to a 1-1/2-year high against the dollar on Mon as investors unraveled risky trades in which they borrow low-yielding currencies to buy higher-yielding ones. TOCOM prices were expected to fall further after dropping below the psychological 300 yen, dealers said. "The upward trend could end," one dealer said. Physical rubber prices dropped in line with TOCOM. The fall should draw buyers back to the physical market, but prices were unlikely to drop sharply as supply was still limited by rains in Thailand south, traders said. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
|
|
|
Nostradamus
Supreme |
13-Nov-2007 00:41
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Rubber futures on TOCOM incurred maximum allowable one-day losses Mon, pressured by heavy selling amid the yen's surge on exchange markets. The benchmark, most distant Apr '08 contract limit-down by 8 yen at 296.6 yen per kg. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
Nostradamus
Supreme |
09-Nov-2007 22:53
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Tokyo rubber futures slipped 0.9% on Fri, despite supportive oil prices, as the market lost momentum after hitting a 16-month high earlier this week. The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for Apr delivery fell 3 yen to end at 304.6 yen per kg. It rose to 312.2 yen on 7/11, the highest since Jul '06, up 34% from this year's low of 232.5 yen marked in Aug, on the back of soaring crude oil prices. The rubber market often looks to crude oil prices for direction as expensive oil makes SR, a petroleum product, more costly, leading to a shift to NR. But TOCOM rubber was expected to take a breather. "Prices have risen quite high which could attract players to cash in profit," a dealer said. "The market has already factored in scarce supply and there's no change on the fundamental side, so the market may lack the momentum to rise much further," another dealer said. Physical trade revived, with Singapore and Malaysia back from a holiday, but high prices still kept most buyers on the sidelines, traders said. Physical prices were likely to remain high next week due to scattered rain across Thailand's south. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
Nostradamus
Supreme |
08-Nov-2007 21:26
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Tokyo rubber futures fell 1% on Thu as oil prices reteated from the brink of US$100 a barrel. But physical supplies remained tight due to eratic weather in Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia, sparing prices from any serious drop. The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for Apr delivery fell 3.2 yen to 307.6 yen per kg, after trading in a range of 305.2 yen to 310.2 yen. "TOCOM rubber should maintain its rising trend due to tight supply," a dealer said. Japanese crude rubber inventories rose almost 3% to 8,843 tonnes by the end of Oct from 8,618 tonnes on Oct 20, the Rubber Trade Association of Japan said on Wed. However, they were little changed from a 2-year low of 7,511 tonnes at the end of September. On the physical front, rubber prices were mostly unchanged as limited supply offset falling futures contract prices on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange. Trading was thin, with traders in Singapore and Malaysia on holiday. "We expect more buyers to come to the market after the holiday as they need to buy despite high prices as we heard that they didn't have much rubber in their stocks," one said. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
myinvest
Member |
07-Nov-2007 23:08
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Check out the rubber prices from the Singapore Commodity Exchange at http://www.sicom.com.sg/index_sub.asp?content=rss1 |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
|
|
|
Nostradamus
Supreme |
07-Nov-2007 19:45
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
NR futures in Tokyo climbed to the highest in 16 months as crude oil reached a record, raising investor demand for commodities as a hedge against inflation. Crude oil rose to a record above US$98 a barrel as a storm forced BP and ConocoPhillips to evacuate workers and cut production in the North Sea. NR futures often move in the same direction as crude oil because rising oil prices add to production costs of competing SR. "Rubber futures were bought as oil prices are climbing toward US$100," Jun Nishimuta, an analyst at Kanetsu Asset Management Co. in Tokyo, said by phone today. "Investors are putting money into commodities for higher returns," he added. Rubber for April delivery rose 6.5 yen to close at 310.8 yen per kg on the TOCOM, the highest for the most-active contract since Jul 3 '06. Rubber futures were also bought amid speculation demand from China, the world's largest user of the commodity, will increase as rubber output in the country is slow, Nishimuta said. "Chinese rubber imports will probably pick up as rubber production in China seasonally declines toward the end of the year," Nishimuta said. In the cash market, prices gained as output in Thailand declined because of wet weather and reduced yield from old rubber trees. NR futures for Jan delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange added 345 yuan, or 1.5%, to 23,045 yuan (US$3,096) a ton as of 11:11 a.m. local time. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
Nostradamus
Supreme |
06-Nov-2007 20:01
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Shanghai rubber futures inched up in the week ended on Tue, aided by domestic buying, after strong crude oil prices and supply worries due to bad weather lifted Tokyo futures to their highest in more than a year. Chinese tyre makers, which account for 60% of the country's rubber consumption, have made relatively large spot purchases to ensure supply during the winter, when tapping in Southeast Asia ceases. Tyre producers are also building stocks in anticipation that rubber prices could rise further due to high crude oil, hitting their margins. The most active Jan contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange ended up 0.3% on the week at 22,700 yuan ($3,046) a tonne on Tue, within sight of a near 7-month high of 22,885 yuan reached on Nov 1. "People are talking about prices going up further and traders are active in the market again due to the higher oil prices," said a purchase manager at a leading Chinese tyre maker. "High material costs will hurt earnings, but what will happen if prices go even higher? I am not hesitating to buy now." Rubber prices have been supported by surging U.S. oil futures, which rose above US$95 a barrel on Tuesday. The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for Apr delivery eased to 304.3 yen at Tue's close, after hitting 307.5 yen on Mon. "Rubber prices have been directed by oil futures for a long time and are likely to stay on the uptrend for the short-term," said analyst Lin Hui at the futures trading arm of Shanghai-based Orient Securities. "I have not seen any indication that there would be a major correction on crude oil as I feel funds' positions are maintaining price momentum on oil, so I have a optimistic outlook on rubber," she said. Supply worries from Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, as heavy rains have disrupted tapping, lent strong fundamental support to rubber futures prices. China's rubber consumption is expected to rise 12% in '07 from 2.1 million tonnes last year, according to the China Rubber Industry Association. (US$1=7.453 Yuan) |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
Nostradamus
Supreme |
05-Nov-2007 21:39
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Tokyo rubber futures rose further on Mon to a 16-month high, supported by firm prices of oil and other commodities. The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for Apr delivery rose 1.3 yen to end at 303.0 yen per kg. It rose as high as 307.5 yen, the highest of any benchmark contract since Jul 4 '06. "TOCOM prices should maintain their upward trend as oil and other commodities are higher. We don't see any negative factor today," a dealer said. Cash gold held on to gains after breaking above US$800 per ounce for the first time since '80 on Fri, boosted by surging oil prices. A record low dollar and more fallout from the global credit market crisis also ignited safe-haven buying for the precious metal. In the physical market, rubber prices were higher, tracking rises on TOCOM. There were several inquiries from tyremakers, but not many deals were done due to high prices and trade was not very active, traders said. Persistent rain in Thailand and Malaysia, key producers, was likely to keep physical prices firm this week, they said. Trade in Indonesia, another leading producer, was quite busy as cheaper prices attracted tyremakers, including some from China to SIR20. But Indonesian traders could not commit big lots because rain had cut supply, they said. Rains disrupted tapping in Medan, Indonesia's key rubber growing area in northern Sumartra, while Palembang, another key producing area in the south, was still in the wintering season when rubber trees produce less latex, an Indonesian trader said. "We could sell only 100 tonnes per day, compared to around 200-300 tonnes we used to sell as we have less supply," he said. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
zhuge_liang
Supreme |
05-Nov-2007 12:55
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Reuters article With buyers the world over scouring for NR and producing countries struggling to increase supplies, industry will soon feel the bite of spiralling prices. Though the market has been very much in balance in '07, demand could exceed supply as early as next year as several factors conspire to curb output growth in the main producing countries of Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia. These include delays in planting caused by erratic weather, limits in cultivable land, labour supply constraints, higher wage costs and religious insurgency. "There is no single piece of evidence to foresee a decline in the price. All factors are favourable for an increase in price," said Jom Jacob, senior economist of the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries. "There are well-defined limits for NR supply to increase at least until 2012. So, the tight supply situation is likely to continue," he said. International prices have risen 4-fold since hitting 30-year lows in '01, when there was a supply glut. Some analysts say they expect rubber to rise around 18% to US$3 a kg next year. Thai RSS3 grade, often used asthe benchmark for physical prices, stood at US$2.55 a kg on Fri. "It's possible the price will reach US$3, although I would prefer to refrain from mentioning any specific number. Strong demand, mainly from China, is one of the factors that will push up the price," said a Tokyo-based analyst. The recovery in rubber prices and continued robust demand have taken place on the coat-tails of China's booming economy. Tyres account for 60% of the country's rubber consumption, according to China Rubber Industry Association. As the world's largest consumer, China last year imported 1.6 million tonnes of NR, which is used in everything from tyres to sports shoes. China's rubber consumption is to rise 12% in '07 from 2.1 million tonnes last year, according to the China Rubber Industry Association. China is emerging as a major exporter of cars and production of tyres has grown above 20% a year over the past few years. And last year, China outstripped Japan to become the world's number-2 auto market, with sales of 7.2 million vehicles and output of 7.3 million. "There's a close relationship between economic growth and domestic consumption. From '07 to '10, I anticipate demand growth in China at between 7 and 10% each year for NR," said Jacob of the ANPRC. "We expect global consumption to rise to 9.7 million tonnes in '07, which is an increase of around 4%. Next year's may reach around 10.1 million tonnes," said a London-based analyst. "Of course there's global economic growth, and demand from the tyre industry is obviously the key factor. Also, within the increase in global demand, we've got the increase in GDP and the increase in mining activity that pushes up demand for tyres." With consumpution on the rise, supply will be a problem for the market. SR remains expensive as it is made from pricey crude oil. The International Rubber Study Group put global NR output at 9.7 million tonnes in '06 but output this year and next remains constrained. Output in Thailand, the world's largest producer, may fall 1.5% to about 3 million tonnes in '07 from a year earlier because heavy rains have disrupted tapping. Production has also been hurt by separatist violence in Thailand's southern provinces, which account for 10% of the country's output. The 2nd-largest producer, Indonesia, could see its output unchanged at 2.8 million tonnes next year, due to climate change and poor yields. Malaysia, the 3rd-largest producer, may lose 250,000 hectares of plantations between '08 and '20 because of rapid industrialisation and expansion of its palm oil plantations as demand for biofuel drives prices to record highs. With emerging producers such as Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos, also struggling to boost output due to the lack of suitable land, rubber manufacturers will face higher costs. "Everybody cares about rising prices but there's very little choice. There's not much you can do very quickly to reduce your exposure to NR consumption. I think we'll have a deficit starting next year," said the London-based analyst. "Going forward, we're looking at the deficit running to probably '13. We don't dare forecast the shortfall but fundamentals are driving the direction, while the extent of the movements in prices is probably driven more strongly by speculators." India, whose economy has grown at an average of 8.6% in the past 4 years, grows rubber but also imports the commodity from Southeast Asia to fill a supply gap. "A surge in the NR price is inevitable with the widening of the demand and supply gap in the coming few years," said Arup Chandra, head of research and development at Apollo Tyres India's tyre industry has an annual turnover of US$4.5 billion and production of passenger cars is expected to grow 18% each year from '06 to '10. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
zhuge_liang
Supreme |
02-Nov-2007 19:14
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Rubber futures on TOCOM closed lower Fri, after showing a brief recovery from the early lows. The most distant Apr '08 contract finished at 301.7 yen per kg, down 2 yen, after trading in a range of 301.5 yen to 307.4 yen. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
Nostradamus
Supreme |
01-Nov-2007 21:39
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
The most active Tokyo rubber futures contract rose by its 8-yen limit to its highest level in almost 16 months on Thu, tracking record crude oil prices and a weakness in yen. Prices of tyre grade also rose, with persistent rains in Thailand providing additional support. The Apr '08 contract on the TOCOM ended at 303.7 yen a kg, the highest since Jul 4 '06. The exchange lowered the daily limit for rubber futures to 8 yen, effective on Thu, from 10 yen previously. "We've broken 300 yen, so I guess most people will look at the previous high around 324 yen hit in Jun last year," said a dealer in Thailand's southern city of Hat Yai. "I don't think the market is overbought. It's just that sentiment in commodities is very good. I think rubber will closely follow movements in other commodities, particularly oil and gold," he said. Separately, Chairil Anwar, director of the Indonesian Rubber Research Institute, said the country's NR output would be unchanged at 2.8 million tonnes in '08, falling short of an initial target, as erratic weather is likely to disrupt supplies. The United Nations weather agency said on Wednesday that a "La Nina" cooling of sea temperatures is underway in the Pacific Ocean and the phenomenon is likely to persist into next year. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
Nostradamus
Supreme |
01-Nov-2007 00:43
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Tokyo rubber futures closed lower on Wed. The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for Apr delivery fell 0.7 yen to end at 295.7 yen per kg. Crude oil declined from a record high of US$93.8 hit on Mon, prompting investors to take a breather from TOCOM's recent rally to a 15-month high. But U.S. crude futures fell below US$90 a barrel in Asia on Wed on expectations that U.S. government data due to be released later in the day would show a rise of domestic crude stocks. "TOCOM rubber prices should maintain its upward trend as it's clear that supply is tight. That's why TOCOM prices have gone up although oil prices fell," a dealer said. TOCOM prices were expected to rise further to challenge the key 300 yen resistance again after staying above 290.3 yen, the 7-day MA, dealers said. Limited supply in the physical market buoyed TOCOM, with persistent rain in Thailand curbing tapping and transport. Tran Thi Thuy Hoa, secretary general of the Vietnam Rubber Association, said on Tue his country's rubber exports may be shy of the official goal of 780,000 tonnes this year because of difficulties in getting supplies from neighbouring countries. But Vietnam was still on track to produce 600,000 tonnes of rubber this year, up from 553,500 tonnes in '06, Hoa told Reuters on the sidelines of a rubber conference. Vietnam exports 80% of its latex and buys rubber from Thailand, Cambodia and Indonesia for re-export. About 65% of its sales go to China. In the physical market, rubber prices were higher on the back of limited supply and rises on TOCOM, but trading was thin as high prices kept buyers on the sidelines. Physical prices were likely to stay firm this week due to tight supply as more rain was expected to hit Thailand. A low-pressure system is passing across Thailand this week and is likely to bring scattered rain, especially to the south which produces 90% of the country's annual rubber production of 3 million tonnes. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
Nostradamus
Supreme |
31-Oct-2007 00:45
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Tokyo rubber futures fell back on Tue in line with oil prices, but the drop was cushioned by the limited supply in the physical market. The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for Apr delivery fell 1.3 yen to end at 296.4 yen per kg. The contract rose as high as 300 yen on Mon, the highest of any benchmark since Jul 6 '06, attracting profit taking amid doubt about whether prices go much higher anytime soon. The key contract has risen more than 20% from a Sep trough. Its next technical target would be a '06 high of 324.5 yen, analysts said. "TOCOM should rebound as I expect today's fall was just a short-term technical correction after a rally on Mon," one dealer said. Speculative buying from investment funds in the past month had been partly inspired by higher oil prices. In the physical market, rubber prices were mostly unchanged on Tuesday as tight supply offset falls of the futures contracts on TOCOM. Trading was active with European tyremakers, Japanese and Chinese buyers in the market, but they bought only small lots because of high prices, traders said. "They bought less rubber, just for replenishing stocks and keeping their operations running," one trader said. In Indonesia, producers there have less rubber to sell as dry weather cut production, an Indonesian trader said. In Malaysia, supply was improving gradually as rain subsided, but prices remained buoyant due to strong demand from buyers needing to cover year-end positions, traders said. Persistent rain in Thailand still weighed on supply, pushing price higher, they said. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |