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Latest Forum Topics / SunVic Chemical  Post Reply
Sunvic - Cheap valuations, record year but...

Sept11
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06-Dec-2010 14:49     
 
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 Alert Admin 		SunVic should be part of your portfolio. Top pick among the S-chips. Recommendation: Buy!
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ezrahash
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10-Nov-2010 23:24     
 
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 Alert Admin 		excellent set of results Q on Q esp EPS.  Bravo! have been with this counter since late 2007 bought in further 2008 just to dca lol.  still vested and now holding tight.  crc has a point tho' new american money would mitigate borrowing costs? has more upside at least in the short & medium term
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lsj840428
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10-Nov-2010 20:16     
 
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 Alert Admin 		result came out....net earning more than what i expected.....Sunvic well done !! this time they really can hit 300 mil earning for the year...


lsj840428      ( Date: 15-Oct-2010 22:35) Posted:

Hi ernest, 

i am quite agree with what you said that they are in the cash tight position. i have been tracking their A/R ratio and noticed the ratio used to be less than 1.3 since 2007...... not too sure if this ratio is going to hurt them.....

Volatile ASP......not too sure how you define volatile, could be subjective.....i only know that their ASP has been teetering at the range of 13000 to lately 19000 rmb per tonne. do u see it as volatile ? 

i got this counter at midst of 2008, that time their businesses seemed quite promising until the CEO was so confident to tell their yrly earning could be hitting 300 mill but unfortunately ended up with ...........

until the last quarter, their business seems to be on the track mainly due to their raising ASP.....and very fortunate this time CEO is no longer as confident as last time to make any promising yet unattainable announcements.  looking at the px trend of this counter back to midst of 08 and lately, though both are uptrend, but the way the later uptrend formed is quite different from last time. as such, i do believe we might be able to see the light at the end of the tunnels.....

 


 




crclk15      ( Date: 12-Oct-2010 22:42) Posted:



According to Bloomberg, Sunvic trades at an estimated PE of around 4.3x. Cheap valuations and FY10 is likely to be a record year but there are some nagging concerns for a fundamental investor.

Limited growth in FY2011: According to Poems estimates, Sunvic is operating at close to max utilization in 1HFY10. I.e there wont be much growth in earnings in 2011, except for operating efficiencies and improvements in ASP if any. FYI, Company's new AA plant Phase 1 will only commence commercial production in FY2012. There is not much info on this as in whether Phase 1 will commence in Jan 2012 or Dec 2012;

2. Volatile ASP: This makes forecasting of results difficult.

3. Cash tight: High gearing of 43% with RMB908.8M of loans due within a year. Their cash and cash equivalents only amounted to RMB694M. I.e they have to get refinancing on these loans. May not be easy to get good loans at attractive rates with their track record. (other points are available at my blog, too lengthy to pen it here) Suffice to say that cash tight situation is likely to lead to less dividends dish out to shareholders and possibility of equity raising.

Kindly refer to http://ernestlim15.blogspot.com/2010/10/sunvic-cheap-valuations-record-year-but.html for more information.
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pharoah88
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10-Nov-2010 16:39     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Wednesday:  10 11 2010  prOfIt  takIng  day

Stock Code i Rmk Ccy Last $Chng %Chng Vol Buy Vol Buy Sell Sell Vol Open Previous Day Hi Day Lo Ind
Genting SP G13 i -- SGD 2.280
-0.070 -3.0 264,470,000 5,079,000 2.270 2.280 6,322,000 2.330 2.350 2.340 2.220   M    
Nordic MR7 i -- SGD 0.270
0.000 0.0 231,278,000 4,149,000 0.265 0.270 110,000 0.250 0.000 0.320 0.245 C      
TopGlobal 519 i -- SGD 0.015
0.000 0.0 140,212,000 607,812,000 0.010 0.015 114,615,000 0.015 0.015 0.020 0.015 C,M    
e Genting HK US$ S21 i -- USD 0.500
-0.015 -2.9 123,489,000 5,059,000 0.495 0.500 3,916,000 0.520 0.515 0.520 0.490   M    
TopGlobal W150929 5RWW i -- SGD 0.015
+0.005 +50.0 123,142,000 3,176,000 0.010 0.015 253,036,000 0.010 0.010 0.015 0.010   M    
Noble Grp N21 i -- SGD 2.170
+0.040 +1.9 49,284,000 1,798,000 2.170 2.180 885,000 2.160 2.130 2.200 2.150   M    
GoldenAgr E5H i -- SGD 0.760
-0.010 -1.3 42,367,000 6,458,000 0.755 0.760 4,541,000 0.770 0.770 0.770 0.755   M    
Wilmar F34 i -- SGD 6.510
-0.370 -5.4 32,755,000 422,000 6.510 6.520 285,000 6.600 6.880 6.640 6.490 C,M    
SunVic A7S i -- SGD 0.680
+0.035 +5.4 29,019,000 986,000 0.675 0.680 39,000 0.645 0.645 0.695 0.640 C,M   
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lsj840428
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30-Oct-2010 09:11     
 
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 Alert Admin 		is there anyone still has a bullish view in this counter?
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lsj840428
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24-Oct-2010 17:43     
 
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lol what a noob question.....

 i read their news, if they wan to raise money, they will do share allotment rather than fund thru loan...... btw, do u own any of this counter?



radiantforce      ( Date: 24-Oct-2010 17:39) Posted:



 oh but that is the cracking plant which will be completed in 4Q10. I meant their plan to build two other plants to increase production capacity and likely to begin production only in 2012.


Which would be a benefit in the long run right, not short term. what would the implications of that be in the short run? stock prices going down either from raising equity raising or increase debts from borrowing cash??

 

sorry for the noob questions. no other way to learn but to ask and learn.

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radiantforce
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24-Oct-2010 17:39     
 
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 oh but that is the cracking plant which will be completed in 4Q10. I meant their plan to build two other plants to increase production capacity and likely to begin production only in 2012.


Which would be a benefit in the long run right, not short term. what would the implications of that be in the short run? stock prices going down either from raising equity raising or increase debts from borrowing cash??

 

sorry for the noob questions. no other way to learn but to ask and learn.
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lsj840428
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24-Oct-2010 15:43     
 
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 Alert Admin 		the reason y they r building a new plant is bcos they wan to generate the raw material themselves in order to have a better control on the cost of material.....

radiantforce      ( Date: 24-Oct-2010 14:43) Posted:



so what do you think in terms of it being a short term buy? to take advantage of its possible increase in price after it announces its profits around early november. given that they expect  to make the same level or high profits compared to 2Q10. they have had a strong 3Q09 as compared to 2Q09 too. 

 but i agree that I dun really like the long term prospects given that the cost of building the new plant, and their tight cash situation. 

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radiantforce
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24-Oct-2010 14:43     
 
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so what do you think in terms of it being a short term buy? to take advantage of its possible increase in price after it announces its profits around early november. given that they expect  to make the same level or high profits compared to 2Q10. they have had a strong 3Q09 as compared to 2Q09 too. 

 but i agree that I dun really like the long term prospects given that the cost of building the new plant, and their tight cash situation. 
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crclk15
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23-Oct-2010 12:47     
 
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Hi Isj,

Argh. I posted a comment in reply to your comment. SOmehow, it didnt get posted. (I dont know why). Im retyping again here. FYI

Using your numbers on the ASP, its v volatile to me. This has at least 2 implications:

a) Typically, companies which experience volatility in ASP are likely to have an inconsistent track record. If ASP suddenly plummets, mgmt wont have much time to react to this and margins will be squeezed. Besides, this margin compression is exacerbated if most of their costs is fixed costs.

b) Difficult to forecast results for the next 2 - 3 years. Thus, arriving at any target price with confidence will be v difficult.

Nevertheless, investing is an interesting, personal and subjective game.

Do visit my blog for the writeups on CSE Global, China Animal and latest writeup on Sino Grandness. http://ernestlim15.blogspot.com/

Have a great weekend.



lsj840428      ( Date: 15-Oct-2010 22:35) Posted:

Hi ernest, 

i am quite agree with what you said that they are in the cash tight position. i have been tracking their A/R ratio and noticed the ratio used to be less than 1.3 since 2007...... not too sure if this ratio is going to hurt them.....

Volatile ASP......not too sure how you define volatile, could be subjective.....i only know that their ASP has been teetering at the range of 13000 to lately 19000 rmb per tonne. do u see it as volatile ? 

i got this counter at midst of 2008, that time their businesses seemed quite promising until the CEO was so confident to tell their yrly earning could be hitting 300 mill but unfortunately ended up with ...........

until the last quarter, their business seems to be on the track mainly due to their raising ASP.....and very fortunate this time CEO is no longer as confident as last time to make any promising yet unattainable announcements.  looking at the px trend of this counter back to midst of 08 and lately, though both are uptrend, but the way the later uptrend formed is quite different from last time. as such, i do believe we might be able to see the light at the end of the tunnels.....

 


 




crclk15      ( Date: 12-Oct-2010 22:42) Posted:



According to Bloomberg, Sunvic trades at an estimated PE of around 4.3x. Cheap valuations and FY10 is likely to be a record year but there are some nagging concerns for a fundamental investor.

Limited growth in FY2011: According to Poems estimates, Sunvic is operating at close to max utilization in 1HFY10. I.e there wont be much growth in earnings in 2011, except for operating efficiencies and improvements in ASP if any. FYI, Company's new AA plant Phase 1 will only commence commercial production in FY2012. There is not much info on this as in whether Phase 1 will commence in Jan 2012 or Dec 2012;

2. Volatile ASP: This makes forecasting of results difficult.

3. Cash tight: High gearing of 43% with RMB908.8M of loans due within a year. Their cash and cash equivalents only amounted to RMB694M. I.e they have to get refinancing on these loans. May not be easy to get good loans at attractive rates with their track record. (other points are available at my blog, too lengthy to pen it here) Suffice to say that cash tight situation is likely to lead to less dividends dish out to shareholders and possibility of equity raising.

Kindly refer to http://ernestlim15.blogspot.com/2010/10/sunvic-cheap-valuations-record-year-but.html for more information.
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voceir
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22-Oct-2010 22:54     
 
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Kim Eng did a coverage on them ytd, citing same reasons as Philips! Mb tats y, renew the buying interest tdy amid the selling pressure!! =)

 
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lsj840428
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22-Oct-2010 22:27     
 
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 Alert Admin 		still climbing ......


lsj840428      ( Date: 20-Oct-2010 22:41) Posted:

yeah, wondering too if it will cont to climb......the result needless to say will be good.....just need to forecast if Q4 will be outstanding too?? should we stay the tune or......

voceir      ( Date: 20-Oct-2010 20:38) Posted:

Amazing stock! Their results must be very good...BB playing it up first~ Wonder if it will contd its ride up tml?? profit-taking soon??
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lsj840428
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20-Oct-2010 22:41     
 
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 Alert Admin 		yeah, wondering too if it will cont to climb......the result needless to say will be good.....just need to forecast if Q4 will be outstanding too?? should we stay the tune or......

voceir      ( Date: 20-Oct-2010 20:38) Posted:

Amazing stock! Their results must be very good...BB playing it up first~ Wonder if it will contd its ride up tml?? profit-taking soon??
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voceir
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20-Oct-2010 20:38     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Amazing stock! Their results must be very good...BB playing it up first~ Wonder if it will contd its ride up tml?? profit-taking soon??
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lsj840428
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20-Oct-2010 18:29     
 
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 Alert Admin 		HitZ !!

smltimer      ( Date: 19-Oct-2010 13:23) Posted:

target price 0.60 ......

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smltimer
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19-Oct-2010 13:23     
 
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 Alert Admin 		target price 0.60 ......
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lsj840428
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15-Oct-2010 22:35     
 
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Hi ernest, 

i am quite agree with what you said that they are in the cash tight position. i have been tracking their A/R ratio and noticed the ratio used to be less than 1.3 since 2007...... not too sure if this ratio is going to hurt them.....

Volatile ASP......not too sure how you define volatile, could be subjective.....i only know that their ASP has been teetering at the range of 13000 to lately 19000 rmb per tonne. do u see it as volatile ? 

i got this counter at midst of 2008, that time their businesses seemed quite promising until the CEO was so confident to tell their yrly earning could be hitting 300 mill but unfortunately ended up with ...........

until the last quarter, their business seems to be on the track mainly due to their raising ASP.....and very fortunate this time CEO is no longer as confident as last time to make any promising yet unattainable announcements.  looking at the px trend of this counter back to midst of 08 and lately, though both are uptrend, but the way the later uptrend formed is quite different from last time. as such, i do believe we might be able to see the light at the end of the tunnels.....

 


 




crclk15      ( Date: 12-Oct-2010 22:42) Posted:



According to Bloomberg, Sunvic trades at an estimated PE of around 4.3x. Cheap valuations and FY10 is likely to be a record year but there are some nagging concerns for a fundamental investor.

Limited growth in FY2011: According to Poems estimates, Sunvic is operating at close to max utilization in 1HFY10. I.e there wont be much growth in earnings in 2011, except for operating efficiencies and improvements in ASP if any. FYI, Company's new AA plant Phase 1 will only commence commercial production in FY2012. There is not much info on this as in whether Phase 1 will commence in Jan 2012 or Dec 2012;

2. Volatile ASP: This makes forecasting of results difficult.

3. Cash tight: High gearing of 43% with RMB908.8M of loans due within a year. Their cash and cash equivalents only amounted to RMB694M. I.e they have to get refinancing on these loans. May not be easy to get good loans at attractive rates with their track record. (other points are available at my blog, too lengthy to pen it here) Suffice to say that cash tight situation is likely to lead to less dividends dish out to shareholders and possibility of equity raising.

Kindly refer to http://ernestlim15.blogspot.com/2010/10/sunvic-cheap-valuations-record-year-but.html for more information.
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crclk15
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14-Oct-2010 00:54     
 
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Hi Bossbeh bro,

It depends on whether you are a trader (short term) or invest (long term). Short term wise, the stock price can be heavily influenced by sentiment on the stock and general market sentiment. However, over the long term, the stock price is more influenced by its fundamentals.

For me, I wont invest until the points that I raised are negated, perhaps after meeting company mgmt etc.

Do visit my blog at http://ernestlim15.blogspot.com/ . I can be contacted at crclk@yahoo.com.sg

All the best in your trading & investing!
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freezy_81
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13-Oct-2010 10:52     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I had sold at 0.470 last monday liao...take profit and go.
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bossbeh
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12-Oct-2010 22:59     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Bro thanks for the info...so meaning I sell Sunvic now?
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