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Dow Outlook

guoyanyunyan
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23-May-2013 08:50

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Betting on a Summer Rally

Commentary: Stocks will rally this summer but by how much?

...more....

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

23-May-2013 08:42

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U.S. stocks drop on Fed tapering worries

^{Fed chief: Tapering of bond buying may occur in next few meetings}

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks slid Wednesday, reversing gains after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting and comments from the Fed chief suggested the central bank may begin tapering its bond-buying program in coming months.

Stocks had a wild ride during the session, as investors digested congressional testimony by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and the release at 2 p.m. Eastern of the minutes from the Fed’s April 30-May 1 meeting.

The S& P’s 500 Index slumped 13.81 points, or 0.8%, to 1,655.35, after rising as high as 1,687.18.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 80.41 points, or 0.5%, to 15,307.17 after rising as much as 155 points earlier in the session and falling more than 121 points. It was the biggest intraday point swing for the Dow since February.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 38.82 points, or 1.1%, to 3,463.30.

All three benchmarks logged their steepest point and percentage losses since May 1, according to FactSet data.

In the morning, stocks had rallied after the release of Bernanke’s prepared remarks, in which he said that premature tightening in policy could strangle the economic recovery.

However, in the Q& A session, lawmakers tried to nail down when the Fed may taper its bond-buying program, with one official asking if it could occur before Labor Day. Bernanke responded by saying that the Fed could take a step down in the pace of asset purchases in the “next few meetings.” That comment led stocks to pare gains and push the market lower by early afternoon.

...more...

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

22-May-2013 15:20

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....

... what is expected of the next Dow, S& P500 closing........ Smiley

...

now:

Index Future	Future Date	Last	Net Change	Open	High	Low	Time
Dow Jones	Jun 13	15,371.00	+16.00	15,363.00	15,371.00	15,353.00	03:02:40
S& P 500	Jun 13	1,667.40	+1.80	1,666.00	1,667.40	1,664.80	03:03:23
NASDAQ 100	Jun 13	3,024.75	+3.25	3,023.25	3,024.75	3,022.00	03:02:35

morning:

Index Future	Future Date	Last	Net Change	Open	High	Low	Time
Dow Jones	Jun 13	15,357.00	+2.00	15,363.00	15,363.00	15,353.00	23:22:44
S& P 500	Jun 13	1,665.40	-0.20	1,666.00	1,666.50	1,664.80	23:22:44
NASDAQ 100	Jun 13	3,021.75	+0.25	N.A.	3,023.00	3,021.00	23:22:44

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

22-May-2013 09:24

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...although hopeful of more record highs to come.... it is good to listen to the other side point of view...

You don’t think we’re in a bubble?

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

22-May-2013 08:58

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U.S. stocks rise after Fed officials’ QE signal

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday, with the Dow industrials and S& P 500 finishing at record highs, after comments from two Federal Reserve officials suggested that the central bank is not close to tapering its bond-buying program.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 52.30 points, or 0.3%, to end at 15,387.58, notching its 19th consecutive Tuesday rise.

The S& P 500 index climbed 2.87 points, or 0.2%, to 1,669.16, with health care the biggest gainer and telecommunications the biggest laggard among the 10 major industry groups.

The Nasdaq Composite rose 5.69 points, or 0.2%, to 3,502.12.

.... “Broadly speaking, investors are really waiting to see what Mr. Bernanke is going to say in front of Congress,” said Andrew Wilkinson, chief economic strategist for Miller Tabak. “The next 20 points in the S& P 500 are probably predicated on what he has to say.”

.... Bullish sentiment remains strong on Wall Street. Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target for the S& P 500 to 1,750, and Deutsche Bank recommended staying long equities and added that valuations implied that the S& P 500 could trade as high as 1,800 by year-end.

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

21-May-2013 16:19

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.. doing better than morning.... Smiley

... another record in the making...

now:

Stock Futures Americas

Index Future	Future Date	Last	Net Change	Open	High	Low	Time
Dow Jones	Jun 13	15,330.00	+11.00	15,315.00	15,332.00	15,304.00	04:00:49
S& P 500	Jun 13	1,665.50	+0.90	1,663.80	1,665.90	1,662.80	04:00:47
NASDAQ 100	Jun 13	3,024.50	+3.50	3,021.50	3,025.00	3,019.50	03:57:21

morning:

Stock Futures Americas

Index Future	Future Date	Last	Net Change	Open	High	Low	Time
Dow Jones	Jun 13	15,309.00	-10.00	15,315.00	15,315.00	15,304.00	21:08:46
S& P 500	Jun 13	1,662.90	-1.70	1,663.80	1,663.90	1,662.80	21:07:51
NASDAQ 100	Jun 13	3,019.25	-1.75	N.A.	3,019.75	3,019.00	21:08:37

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

21-May-2013 09:59

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U.S. stocks drop, retreating from all-time highs

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks finished lower on Monday after comments from Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans knocked them from new all-time highs set earlier in the day.

The S& P 500 index finished down 1.18 points, or 0.1%, at 1,666.29, after touching a new high of 1,672.84 during the session.

Energy posted the largest gains of the index’s 10 major industry groups with consumer staples being the biggest laggard.

The index traded as low as 1,663.52 in the afternoon after Charles Evans said in Chicago that the central bank’s policy stance is appropriate and that the improving economy still faces headwinds. Evans is a voting member of the FOMC this year.

While defensive stocks have been dominating the rally for most of the year, there’s been new life in cyclical stocks recently, propelling the market into the “free skies” of record highs.

Energy is the third best-performing sector in May, behind financials and industrials. Year-to-date, health-care stocks are still the best performers with a 22% gain. Then there’s financials with a nearly 22% gain and consumer discretionary, up 21%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 19.12 points, or 0.1%, to close at 15,335.28, with only 11 of its 30 components finishing in positive territory. Intraday, the index touched an all-time high of 15,391.84 and was down as low as 15,314.15.

...

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

21-May-2013 09:30

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What to Watch: In stocks, long view looks good

NEW YORK -- Long-term investing is so 1990s. Back then, to make a lot of money, all you had to do was buy stocks and hold them. Investing in the S& P's 500-stock index was a sure thing. The benchmark gauge, which was the darling of the index fund investing craze, posted total returns of more than 20% in six separate years in the '90s, including an unprecedented five-year run from 1995 through 1999.

But buy-and-hold was discredited in the 2000s, when large-company stocks, hurt by the 2000 tech-stock crash and the " Great Recession," posted compound annual losses of roughly 1%. In contrast, stodgy long-term U.S. government bonds gained an average of 7.7% per year in the last decade, says Strategas Research Partners. It was the first time stocks underperformed bonds since the 1930s. But with the stock market now more than four years into a powerful bull market, Strategas' co-founder Jason Trennert thinks it's important to remind investors that stocks have been the wealth-building asset of choice over the long haul.

" The combination of a 24-hour news cycle and a continuation of a global financial crisis that offers an endless supply of market-moving information . . . makes it difficult for investors . . . to avoid getting caught up in the sturm und drang of the tape," he told clients. He said $1 invested in large-cap stocks at the start of 1926 would now be worth $3,532. The same investment in U.S. government bonds would be worth just $123.

The takeaway? Think long-term.

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

18-May-2013 09:47

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Dow 15,000 is only the beginning

_{Commentary: Why investors distrust the rally}

It’s probably not an exaggeration to say that this is the most hated stock market rally of all time.

The simple facts that the S& P 500 is up about 17% year-to-date or that the major indexes are setting new highs should prompt immense celebration across Wall Street.

But there’s no party. Negativity and doubt persist.

I personally believe the front-loaded returns of 2013 are ripe for a brief pullback, but I am very bullish longer term and I’m staying fully invested.

My reasons aren’t particularly unique, but here are the biggies:

Fair to attractive valuations

There are many data points here that people can parse as they see fit. Mine is that the S& P’s trailing P/E ratios haven’t been below 13 since 1989 — and since January 1990, the S& P’s median P/E is about 20 and the average is 25. We are currently at around 18. You can say I’m cherry-picking, but I would assert I am favoring the era of computers over the era of the horse and buggy.

Politicking baked in

I mean, what out of Europe could rattle us after Cyprus? And if the debt ceiling debacle in 2011 and the fiscal cliff in 2012 didn’t sink American consumers or derail the economy, what do we have to be afraid of?

Housing recovery

RealtyTrac reported yet another big drop in distressed property recently, with foreclosures hitting a six-year low. Meanwhile prices are up at the fastest pace since 2006, according to Case-Shiller. This housing recovery isn’t just good for jobs or homebuilder stocks and for lenders in the financial sector, but for the wealth affect it brings to consumers, too.

The Federal Reserve

Rates remain low, fostering investment and spending. Like it or lump it, it doesn’t appear that will change anytime this year — even if recent reports from Fed watcher Jon Hilsenrath make it clear quantitative easing won’t last forever. And if you’re a macro bear that expects GDP or unemployment to worsen, there’s even less of a chance Ben Bernanke will take his foot off the gas.

American resilience

One of the best lines I read last week was from Cullen Roche over at Pragmatic Capitalism, who wrote, “The Neanderthal who shorted Cro-magnon Man stock 30,000 years ago is sitting on hefty losses.” This reminds me of Warren Buffett’s crisis-era wisdom that “It’s never paid to bet against America.” Entrepreneurs and businesses always surprise us and the economy always has a second act — it always has. Besides, if you believe that humans are a doomed race and that America will become a Third World country… well, you have bigger problems then rebalancing your IRA based on that outlook, don’t you? ...more...

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

18-May-2013 09:14

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Investing now? Nervous? Here's what to do

Investing in the stock market when it's at an all-time high seems like one of those ominous moments, like when someone decides to go for a swim in Jaws or peer at an egg in any of the Alien movies. You figure something bad is going to happen, and soon.

But stocks often reach all-time highs without plunging immediately into soul-searing bear markets. Your mission now is to find a way to invest in the market without losing a big chunk of your portfolio — or having nervous breakdown. Here's how.

First, bear in mind that you can often make very good money when the stock market has reached new highs. Let's dolly back to October 1982, when the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index beat its previous all-time high. The S& P 500 soared until Oct. 19, 1987, when, well, Bad Things happened. (The S& P 500 fell that day, the largest one-day collapse in history.)

Nevertheless, even after the 1987 crash, an investor who bought at the all-time high in 1982 was still sitting atop an 87% gain. And, had you bought stocks at the S& P 500's next new all-time high — 338 — you'd have a tidy gain today with the market benchmark at 1,650.

...more...

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

18-May-2013 09:05

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Dow, S& P 500 end week with record highs

Stocks defied skeptics again Friday, attracting attention from even the most hardened market-watchers. The Dow and the S& P's 500 index closed at record highs.

The Dow gained 121.18 points, 0.8%, to 15,354.40. The S& P 500 ended up 15.65 points, 1%, to 1,666.12. And the Nasdaq composite index rose 33.72 points, 1%, to 3,498.97. It was the fourth straight week of gains for the indexes.

They were joined by the Russell 2000 small-cap index, reflecting the breadth of the indexes' 17% run up so far this year. The index closed up 10.94 points, 1.1%, to 996.28.

Investors' bullishness was fueled Friday by two economic reports, one showing consumer confidence in May surged to the highest levels since 2007 and one reflecting a jump in the leading indicators index, a proxy of the economy's future health, in March, buoyed by a sharp rise in applications to build homes and apartments.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note jumped to 1.95%, up from an intraday low of 1.86% Thursday. The price, which moves inversely to the yield, plunged -- reflecting investors fleeing the safety of bonds.

The price of gold, an inflation hedge, fell 5% for the week, finishing Friday down 2.2% to $1,357 per ounce.

The Dow on Thursday fell to 15,233.22, a loss of 0.3%. The S& P 500 dropped 0.5% to 1,650.47. The Nasdaq composite index fell 0.2% to 3,465.24.

Applications for unemployment benefits jumped to their highest level in six weeks, the U.S. Labor Department reported Thursday, while manufacturing slowed in the mid-Atlantic region.

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

17-May-2013 15:09

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... doing better than morning.... Smiley

Stock Futures Americas

Index Future	Future Date	Last	Net Change	Open	High	Low	Time
Dow Jones	Jun 13	15,253.00	+41.00	15,236.00	15,254.00	15,230.00	02:44:08
S& P 500	Jun 13	1,652.80	+4.70	1,649.00	1,652.90	1,648.60	02:45:18
NASDAQ 100	Jun 13	3,006.00	+7.75	3,001.50	3,006.00	3,001.50	02:43:22

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

17-May-2013 11:26

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Stock Futures Americas

Index Future	Future Date	Last	Net Change	Open	High	Low	Time
Dow Jones	Jun 13	15,235.00	+23.00	15,236.00	15,236.00	15,235.00	23:05:02
S& P 500	Jun 13	1,651.20	+3.10	1,649.00	1,651.70	1,648.60	23:05:19
NASDAQ 100	Jun 13	3,003.25	+5.00	3,004.00	3,003.25	2,999.00	22:20:13

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

16-May-2013 09:00

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U.S. stocks rise for another record close

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks rose Wednesday, with hopes for ongoing central-bank stimulus bolstering sentiment amid economic reports illustrating a contraction in manufacturing.

“It seems like it’s becoming a broken record,” said Andrew Fitzpatrick, director of investments at Hinsdale Associates Inc., of the string of all-time highs, which again came into play on Wednesday.

After starting the session in the red, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 60.44 points to 15,275.69, the index’s 20th record finish this year.

The market’s current bull run, now in its fifth year, comes amid continuing stimulus from the U.S. Federal Reserve as well as monetary easing by central banks around the globe, along with better-than-expected corporate earnings.

“Wall Street is getting more comfortable they won’t just pull the plug they’ll do it at a more measured pace,” said Fitzpatrick, referring to the Federal Reserve.

“We’ve seen little reaction to the rumors that the Fed is behind closed doors trying to craft some kind of exit strategy,” he added of a Wall Street Journal report last week.

That said, Fitzpatrick is among the consensus calls for a market pause or correction.

“I do think a pullback here is warranted, and the sooner we get it, the better.” Read blog about rally’s potential.

Dow component Cisco Systems Inc. shares leapt higher after Wednesday’s closing bell as the networking giant reported quarterly results that beat Wall Street’s projections.

“The Cisco report tends to carry weight, especially in light of its outlook it’s a good gauge in terms of the business climate and the economy,” said Fitzpatrick.

Tallying its 20th record close for 2013, the S& P 500 index gained 8.44 points to 1,658.78, with consumer staples faring best and energy the poorest performing of its 10 industry groups. The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 9.01 points to 3,471.61.

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

15-May-2013 09:06

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U.S. stocks’ rally topples more records

_{Dow industrials notch 18th straight Tuesday rise}

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks on Tuesday rallied to another record-breaking close as Wall Street embraced the view of a still-improving economy.

On CNBC Tuesday, hedge-fund manager David Tepper said he remains bullish on stocks and that the economy is still getting better.

“The news of the day is more good than bad,” said Art Hogan, market strategist at Lazard Capital Markets LLC, who cited a better-than-expected report Tuesday from the National Federation of Independent Business, which released data showing conditions brightened for its members in April.

Strong April retail sales reported Monday are “further proof the economy has momentum despite tax hikes, fiscal cliffs, sequestration, [and] debt ceilings,” wrote Jeffrey Saut, chief market strategist at Raymond James & Associates Inc.

Advancing for an 18th consecutive Tuesday, the Dow added 123.57 points to 15,215.25, with all but four of its 30 components advancing.

Not time to correct?

Lazard’s Hogan rattled off other market statistics: “We’ve had 177 days without a 5% correction, and since 2007 we’ve had 512 central-bank interest-rate cuts, which is probably one of the more important numbers in the whole string of events.”

Also finishing at a record close, the S& P 500 index added 16.57 points to 1,650.34, with financial shares faring best among its 10 major industry groups.

Tepper, co-founder and owner of Appaloosa Management LP, said his firm continues to hold stock of U.S. banks, including Citigroup Inc.

The Nasdaq Composite gained 23.82 points to 3,462.61.

For every share that fell, more than two gained on the New York Stock Exchange, where 699 million shares traded.

Composite volume surpassed 3.4 billion.

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

14-May-2013 10:05

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Oppenheimer & Co. increased its year-end forecast for the S& P 500 to 1,730 and raised its estimate for earnings-per-share to $109, saying concerns about the U.S. economy will be “addressed and offset by positive economic data and corporate developments,” chief equity strategist John Stoltzfus wrote in a note to clients. Oppenheimer, which now has the second-most bullish forecast among 17 strategist estimates compiled by Bloomberg, had previously had a year-end forecast of 1,585 and EPS of $108.

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nqing87
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12-May-2013 13:42

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my concern not really about the trend.. if we have the eurozone crisis that was in last year to happen in this period, do u think it will still follow uptrend of the 1st year following presidential election? im concern about the impact of coming may 19, and is wondering the impact to market sentiment if the politicians decided to be on odds with one another.. but anyway, it seems that may 19 may not be much of the problem as of now, since it seems the debt ceiling could be hit only until during september.. kinda like can kicking down the road again.. ppl probably will not be thinking bearish even if the politicians were to at odds with one another again, if media is tame in this coverage.. shall thread cautiously for now.. when ppl are bullish, time to sell.. when ppl are bearish, time to buy.. this is just my humble views as a newbie

guoyanyunyan ( Date: 12-May-2013 11:35) Posted:

...this May may not be similar to the usual May...base on past record....the best six month period in the first year following a presidential election is March through August...2013 is the first year following a presidential election...

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

12-May-2013 11:35

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nqing87
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12-May-2013 11:20

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http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57583936/u.s-wont-hit-debt-ceiling-until-labor-day-says-treasury-secretary/

seems like they wont hit the ceiling until september.. but wonder if market still will be hit if the politicians fail to meet an agreement by may 19

nqing87 ( Date: 12-May-2013 02:33) Posted:

definitely it's not a sure thing that in may stocks will always go down.. it depends on the economic & political situation.. i wasnt too concern with the notion of sell in may & go away, probably this notion comes out 'cos usually market sentiment in may traditionally is not as good compare to other months usually.. however, interestingly, if im not wrong, the last 3 years 2010, 2011, 2012 all saw a drop in dow, which may give reason why ppl say sell in may & go away.. there must be some trend ppl see to come out with this phrase.. but it's mainly the may 19 that im concern about.. last year, we have eurozone crisis in which media went full blown coverage of it and coincide near this period, this year seems that media is quiet for now, not sure if in this week media " suddenly" remember they have this issue in hand that might be of interest to ppl.. not sure why media so quiet about it, maybe ppl see the republicans & democrats will be able to come to agreement with this issue in hand? or maybe they just de-illusion themselves and want the market to be bullish.. the last time the politicians had disagreement about it in 2011, dow drop about 20%.. if this happen again, i wouldnt be expecting too much of a drop, say 10-20% correction, since ppl usually get immune & more adapted to same kind of news.. if nothing fall-out, probably stocks continue to run up, awaiting for the next bad news to challenge a correction..

anyway, any seniors got any news and outlook of the may 19? im keeping myself out & trying not to be tempted to this bull, at least in the short term.. now entering will be like buy high & hope u can sell higher lol..

junction ( Date: 11-May-2013 12:31) Posted:

This sell in May and go away is quite a silly thing. Its not a sure thing some years it went down and some years it went up. I also sold some before May but all those I sold have gone up significantly. Worse some short the market, including the US market - maybe that's why we don't see their posts now.

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nqing87
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12-May-2013 02:33

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junction ( Date: 11-May-2013 12:31) Posted:

nqing87 ( Date: 01-May-2013 16:02) Posted:

the more dow goes up, the higher chances of it dropping soon imho opinion lol.. wonder which asset will get liquidated next after gold and fund the dow rise.. once nth can be liquidated to push dow up, it will surely goes back down.. but may not need to wait till that for the fall, since we have US debt issue in may that may give a legitimate excuse for a correction.. see how the politicians & media play the news.. media is one of most important elements to fuel rise or fall in market sentiment.. hoping for a fall in may, then pick up stocks cheapl

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