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Rubber prices
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
18-Dec-2007 20:37
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Tokyo rubber futures slipped on Tue as players pocketed profits after prices rose more than 3% during a 3-day rally. But falls were likely to be limited as firm oil prices, a softer yen and concerns about falling rubber supply should provide support, traders said. The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for May delivery fell 2.8 yen to end at 294.2 yen per kg. "There could be a correction as prices failed to break above 300 yen," one dealer said. "But we don't expect a sharp fall this week as fundamentals remain strong and there should be some support from oil and the yen." In the physical market, rubber prices were quoted slightly lower, tracking falls on TOCOM. Trading revived, with more buyers expected to return to the market due to the softer prices, traders said. "But we don't expect buyers to buy big lots as prices remain firm. Buyers may wait to see how the market behaves and take action ahead of weekend," a Malaysian trader said. Physical prices were likely to remain strong this week as monsoon rains in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, which together account for about 60% of the world's NR production, have disrupted tapping, limiting rubber supplies. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
17-Dec-2007 20:56
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Tokyo rubber futures rose on Mon to a 5-week high as a soft yen encouraged buying. The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for May delivery rose 2.9 yen to end at 297.0 yen per kg. It rose as high as 297.2 yen, the highest since Nov 12. The key contract has recovered about 28% since hitting this year's low of 232.5 yen in Aug. Dealers said they expected a limited rise in TOCOM prices as the market was still lacking momentum to breach the key resistance of 300 yen due to thin volume. "It seemed like the market was overbought as it has risen around 30% from this year's low. There might a correction," one dealer said. Physical prices were expected to remain buoyant this week due to limited supply as monsoon rains hit Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, disrupting tapping, traders said. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
14-Dec-2007 23:00
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Tokyo rubber futures extended gains on Fri, hovering near a 1-month high as a weaker Japanese yen encouraged buying. The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for May delivery rose 3.6 yen to end at 294.1 yen per kg. TOCOM's technical trend remained supportive, given the benchmark May contract's recent rally above a psychological resistance of 290 yen per kg. It has gained more than 10% since touching a low of 261.6 yen on Dec. 4. But traders said gains would be limited by the fall in oil prices and those of other commodities, including gold. In the physical market, rubber prices rose again, supported by falling supply in major producing countries and firm TOCOM prices. Monsoon rains hit southern Thailand and Malaysia, causing flood and disrupting tapping, traders said. The worst-hit was Johor state in the south the country, a major oil palm and rubber growing region. Malaysia's Meteorological Department has forecast more heavy rains. Indonesia is in the rainy season when production falls, they said. Trading was busy with several western users buying several rubber grades as demand remained strong. "But they bought from hand to mouth as prices were high," a Malaysian trader said. "They just wanted to keep their operation running." |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
12-Dec-2007 20:20
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Rubber futures on TOCOM fell back slightly after 3 days of rise Wed. The benchmark, most distant May '08 contract closed at 287.5 yen per kg, down 0.3 yen from Tue, after briefly swinging into plus territory. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
11-Dec-2007 20:37
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Tokyo rubber futures rose 2% on Tue on the back of a firming dollar versus the yen and improving charts, adding to a 6% rally in the previous 2 sessions when fund buying spurred short-covering. The benchmark TOCOM rubber contract for May delivery closed at 287.8 yen a kg, up 5.2 yen from the previous close. The contract earlier rose as high as 288.3 yen, the highest for any benchmark since Nov 15. Traders also said renewed concerns about physical supplies due to wet weather in Thailand supported the TOCOM market. "Production in Thailand is widely expected to fall this year due to irregular weather. The weather remains as a major risk," said a manager at a Tokyo-based commodity brokerage. He also said the recent fall in physical prices was a one-off phenomena. "Dealers' sell-off of raw materials at that time resulted in a temporary rise in entry to Thailand's central market," he said. Prices were broadly higher in the physical market. "Rain came back in the last few days, so I expect supplies to be tighter this week, compared with last week," said a trader in Thailand's southern city of Hat Yai. Last week, the key May rubber futures contract hit a floor of 261.6 yen, weighed down by weakening market outlook after a sell-off in the oil market and due to rising rubber supplies at some producing countries. It was slightly below a November low of 263.00 yen. But a failed attempt for the contract to break through below 260 yen resulted in forming a "double bottom", which usually shows a bullish sign and prompted a wave of short-covering, traders said. The May contract on Monday broke through above a 25-day moving average for the first time since Nov. 12. In industry news, Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co, the largest U.S. tire maker, said on Mon it is combining its EU and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa units in its latest move to boost international operations. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
11-Dec-2007 00:37
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Rubber futures on TOCOM extended gains Mon, pushing up on a late bout of buying. The benchmark, most distant May '08 contract finished at 282.6 yen per kg, up 9.2 yen from Fri. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
07-Dec-2007 22:40
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Rubber futures on TOCOM turned upward Fri, expanding gains on repurchases toward the end of the session. The benchmark, most distant May '08 contract climbed to a session high of 273.4 yen per kg at the close, rising 7.2 yen from Thu. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
07-Dec-2007 00:35
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Tokyo rubber futures fell on Thu, as falls of oil and other commodity prices prompted investors to lock in profits. The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for May delivery fell 2.4 yen per kg to end at 266.2 yen per kg. On Wed, late short-covering had lifted key TOCOM futures by 1%, reflecting a rise of oil prices. But U.S. crude oil futures lost ground later to end sharply lower in New York, as large increases in refined product stocks last week trumped a huge decline of crude supplies. "Sentiment was weak as oil prices stayed below $90 a barrel," one dealer said. TOCOM rubber was under pressure as attention shifted back to bearish technical factors and rising physical supplies from Thailand and Malaysia. The key TOCOM contract was facing several resistance points above 270 yen. The 10-day MA was at 272.5 yen and the 200-day MA at 270.4 yen. Traders have turned cautious about taking large buy positions after seeing TOCOM rubber tumble in a short period. The key contract fell about 7% over a week to a 2-month low of 261.6 yen on Tue, from a high of 282.8 yen hit on Nov 27. A support line is seen around the 100-day MA of 265.0 yen, but a failure to sustain that level could pave the way for it to fall towards this year's low of 232.5 yen hit in Aug. Some traders say, however, that TOCOM rubber falls could be limited as large portions of long positions held by investment funds had been squared off. In the physical market, rubber was quoted mostly lower due to the falls on TOCOM and rising supply in Thailand. Trading was busy, with several enquiries from Europe and China, the world's biggest rubber buyer, traders said. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
05-Dec-2007 22:55
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Tokyo rubber futures turned upward Wed, expanding gains toward the end of the session. The benchmark, most distant May '08 contract settled at 268.6 yen per kg, up 2.6 yen from the previous day. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
04-Dec-2007 23:22
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Tokyo rubber futures tumbled to their lowest in almost 9 weeks on Tue as funds sold on falling oil prices and a strengthening yen, but short-covering limited the falls. The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for May delivery fell 0.3 yen to 266.0 yen per kg. It fell as much as 1.8% to 261.6 yen, the lowest since Oct 3, before short-covering set in. A build-up of Japanese crude rubber stocks and a stronger yen also prompted speculative sales of TOCOM futures, dealers said. "There was room for profit-taking when prices broke below the key support at 264.7 yen," one dealer said, referring to the 100-day MA seen as the key support. Dealers were watching if the key contract could close above that level. In the physical market, rubber was quoted lower due to falls on TOCOM and increasing supply. Trading was active, with several tyremakers and China, the world biggest buyer, buying, traders said. "China had to buy from Thailand and Malaysia as Indonesia has less supply," one said. Tyre makers sniffed for bargains as improving supplies in Thailand put pressure on prices, and China was also keen to buy more to replenish stocks, dealers said on Tue. Tyre makers Bridgestone Corp, Goodyear Tire & Rubber and Michelin are in the market to cover stocks and looking to buy rubber for Feb shipment. "To get more supplies, factories dare to buy at high prices," said Edy Irwansyah, secretary of the the Indonesian Rubber Producers' Association for North Sumatra branch. "They also lend money to merchants so that they can buy raw material directly from tappers. Sometimes, factories attend auctions held by farmers to get raw materials at better prices." Despite tight supplies in Indonesia, speculators continued to unwind positions in TOCOM, which set the tone for physical prices in Asia. "Don't forget Thailand is the biggest producer. That's why the prospect of improving supplies really weighs on sentiment," said a dealer in Thailand's southern city of Hat Yai. China imported 1.35 million tonnes of natural rubber from Jan to Oct '07, up 2.3% from the same period last year, according to official customs data. It mainly buys rubber from Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam. "Together with technical reasons, I guess Tokyo is in a selling mode. Support is around 260 yen and it is broken, we can expect to see the price falling further to 255 yen," said a dealar in Tokyo. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
03-Dec-2007 22:52
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Tokyo rubber futures fell more than 1% to a near 2-week low on Mon after oil prices fell to below US$90 a barrel. The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for May delivery fell 7.6 yen to end at 266.3 yen per kg. It fell as low as 266.2 yen. Investment funds sold following weak technical signals after rubber futures fell below the near- and medium-term moving averages: the 5-day MA of around 275 yen and the 50-day MA of 279 yen. The key contract also closed below the 200-day MA of 270.7 yen. Bearish. Rising rubber stocks also weighed, dealers said. The Rubber Trade Association of Japan said on Fri. Japanese crude rubber stocks rose 15% to 10,298 tonnes by Nov. 20 from 8,950 tonnes on Nov 10. Rubber stocks, which are reported every 10 days, have climbed steadily and are up 37% since reaching a 2-year low of 7,511 tonnes on Sep 30. In the physical market, rubber prices were quoted mostly unchanged as strong demand offset falls on TOCOM. Trading was likely to be busier this week, with more buyers expected to come back to the market, lured by lower prices as supply improved, traders said. Rain has subsided in Thailand and Malaysia, resulting in more rubber sheet and rubber latex available in the physical market, they said. But supply in Indonesia fell as it is in the rainy season, which is expected to run through Apr, an Indonesian trader said. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
30-Nov-2007 23:34
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Tokyo rubber futures were narrowly mixed after 2 days of decline Fri. The benchmark, most distant May '08 contract settled at 273.9 yen per kg, down 0.3 yen from Thu, after falling to a new lifetime low of 270.7 yen. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
30-Nov-2007 00:47
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Tokyo rubber futures closed lower Thu, shedding the early gains on renewed selling from late morning to afternoon. The benchmark rubber contact on TOCOM for May delivery fell 1.4 yen to end at 274.2 yen per kg. Prices have mostly hovered just below 280 yen for about 2 weeks. The benchmark contract was also supported by players who adjusted their positions by selling the Apr contract to buy the May contract, dealers said. "TOCOM prices may rise a little further, but it's hard to say if they could break 280 yen or not," one dealer said. In the physical market, rubber prices were higher, backed by rising TOCOM and strong demand. Trading was busy, especially in Indonesia, with tyremakers shifting to SIR20 from more expensive Thai STR20 and Malaysia SMR20, traders said. "But Indonesian producers could not commit big lots as our supply is falling due to rain," an Indonesian trader said, with the country's rainy season set to run through April. Supply in Thailand, the biggest producer, is improving gradually as rain has stopped, allowing farmers to tap more latex and signalling that prices could soften next week, traders there said. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
28-Nov-2007 22:51
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Rubber futures on TOCOM turned lower on bears' selling and long liquidation Wed. The benchmark, most distant May '08 contract closed at 275.6 yen per kg, down 6.1 yen from the previous day. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
27-Nov-2007 22:48
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Tokyo rubber futures regained strength on renewed buying Tue afternoon, swinging back into plus territory toward the end of the session. The Apr contract rose 0.6 yen to end at 278.1 yen per kg. "Strong demand should provide support, but sentiment was not good as oil fell and the yen kept rising," one dealer said. Rising crude oil prices usually encourage the use of NR instead of SR, a petroleum product. A stronger yen makes dollar-based rubber cheaper and encourages players to sell TOCOM rubber contracts to stop losses. In the physical market, rubber prices slid in thin trade, tracking falls on TOCOM, with buyers expecting further drops. "They are waiting for cheaper prices as they expect improving supply in December," a trader in Thailand's Hat Yai rubber centre said. Rain, which disrupts tapping, had stopped in several parts of southern Thailand, allowing farmers to tap more latex, and supply should increase over the next few weeks, traders said. "But it's not 100% okay as there are still monsoon rains in the deep south of Thailand and Malaysia," a Malaysian trader said. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
26-Nov-2007 21:07
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Rubber futures on TOCOM gained further ground on repurchases Mon. The benchmark, most distant Apr '08 contract settled at 277.5 yen per kg, up 3.6 yen from Thu. However, the euro continues to strengthen, setting a new record against US$. The US dollar has weakened 12% against the euro this year. |
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Jennie
Member |
23-Nov-2007 12:49
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hi shplayer...thanks but the official prices on the LGM site is not truly reflective of the market. Right now, it is quoted below the market. For example, yesterday's closing was around USą248/kg. However I heard offers in the market that CV was somewhere around USą259/kg. When volatility comes in, there is just no where to gauge the CV price. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
23-Nov-2007 00:24
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Rubber futures on TOCOM turned higher Thu, recouping the early losses on repurchases toward the end of the session. The benchmark, most distant Apr '08 contract finished at 273.9 yen per kg, up 2.3 yen from the previous day. |
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shplayer
Elite |
22-Nov-2007 18:42
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Jennie, Try this site http://www2.lgm.gov.my/mre/MonthlyPrices.aspx |
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Jennie
Member |
22-Nov-2007 15:34
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hi nostradamus or anyone else who knows... This post has nothing to do with the current information posted. I understand that tyre grades (SMR20/SIR20) and RSS prices are pretty transparent in the market. However when come to CV grades, there seemed to be no source for it. Any idea how best this information is obtained or at least gauged from? Thanks. |
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