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krisluke
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05-May-2011 21:15
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10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell Good morning. Here's what you need to know.  
Image: AP |
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krisluke
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03-May-2011 20:53
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DXY is strong and i doubt market would be strong. Who wants to buy equity when the dollar is strong. It  quite similiar sight for the other equity market. One to note is SGD strengthening... |
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krisluke
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03-May-2011 20:30
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Time to eat durians liao... |
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krisluke
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03-May-2011 20:24
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SELL IN MAY & GO AWAY Southern Hemisphere Winter in June - September... Many Fund manager will be on vacation Avoid Commodities and Buy Airlines stocks (my view) |
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krisluke
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03-May-2011 20:20
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US banks eased lending terms in Q-1US Fed says Banks eased terms as loan demand rose US banks eased lending terms in Q-1 Y 2011 as they forecast improvement in the US economy, and Companies sought more loans, according to a Federal Reserve survey. “The April survey indicated that, on net, bank lending standards and terms generally had eased somewhat further during the first quarter of this year,” the central bank said today in its quarterly survey of senior loan officers. The looser standards for business loans reflected more competition among banks and some banks “also pointed to a more favorable or less uncertain economic outlook,” the Fed said. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, speaking last week in his 1st press conference after a Fed policy statement, said tight credit following a financial crisis is one factor behind the “relatively slow recovery.” The Federal Open Market Committee (FMOC) renewed their pledge to hold Key interest rates low for an “extended period” and complete a US$600B + bond purchase program by the end of June. 55% percent of domestic banks surveyed reported improvements in the credit quality of large and middle-sized loan applicants, the Fed said. About 35% reported improvements in the credit quality of small firms, according to the survey. US economic growth slowed in Q-1 to a 1.8% annual rate after a 3.1% pace in Q-4 of Y 2010 as government spending declined and consumer purchases cooled. The US economy will likely expand by 2.9% on the year, according to a survey of 74 economists in April. The survey of loan officers at 55 domestic banks and 22 US branches, and agencies of foreign banks was conducted from March 29 to April 12, the US Fed said. The report does not identify respondents. |
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krisluke
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03-May-2011 20:19
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USD UpdateThe US Dollar up off of 3-yr low The “Greenback” worked to come up from a 3-yr low early in Asia Tuesday with higher-yielding currencies like the Australian Dollar still in favor even as markets become more concerned over stretched positions. But a steep fall in Silver highlighted just how vulnerable overbought assets can be to a sudden sell-off and suggested investors may be primed to take profits. Trading in Asia Tuesday will likely be choppy with a market holiday in Japan set to slow liquidity. A dip in US stocks and expectations that Asian shares would follow suit gave the USD a bit of a reprieve in the last few hours. The Dollar Ondex .DXY was last up 0.28% at 73.153, still not far off a 3-yr low of 72.722 reached in New York. Its decline in the past few weeks have taken it ever closer to a record low of 70.698 set in March 2008. Sentiment for the US Dollar has been Bearish as the monetary policy has made the “Greenback” the funding currency of choice in popular carry trades that have helped propel the Aussie Dollar to a 29-yr high of at 1.1011. |
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krisluke
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03-May-2011 20:17
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Trading in MayAs May is opens it pays to remember that this is an Historically weak month for stocks. It is also important to remember that we are now at Multi-year highs on Wall St. The Dow climbed 4 percent for the month while the S& P 500 rose 2.8 percent and the Nasdaq gained 3.3 percent. The CBOE Volatility Index or VIX, remained low, closing Friday’s session below 15, although it was up 0.9 percent for the day. Earnings season is coming to an end, investors will shift their focus to economic data this week, especially the April employment report on Friday. Investors will scrutinize the jobs data for signs of improvement in the labor market. After a very mixed batch of data last week, investors would need to see a solid gain in jobs to believe in sustainable economic growth. On Friday, the United States releases its employment report for April. The world’s largest economy is expected to have added 190,000 jobs, not nearly enough to make much of a dent in the jobless rate, which is expected to hold at 8.8 percent. So far, there is no evidence higher prices have lifted wage demands, according to researchers at the New York Federal Reserve Bank. In the past couple of decades, inexpensive labor from emerging markets helped keep a lid on U.S. wage pressures, but those times may have changed. Other economic data due next week include the ISM manufacturing data and domestic car sales on Monday, the ISM services-sector data on Wednesday, and weekly jobless claims on Thursday. My broad strategy this week is to hedge, using the Nasdaq Futures (Selling them Short) and buying quality stocks during dips on the market. While long term my outlook remains bullish I am expecting to see a pull back on Wall St before the next run forward. The most likely to fall in the Nasdaq. Nasdaq will be rebalancing its benchmark Nasdaq 100 index on Monday that will slash Apple Inc’s weighting. The rebalancing will affect the relative weights of all the securities in the index and cause popular index-tracking funds such as the PowerShares QQQ to buy and sell shares to match the new composition. “I don’t see how anybody can be other than enthused about this country,” Buffett told Berkshire shareholders on Saturday and both myself and Paul Ebeling agree with that sentiment. We also share Where Buffett’s concern over the conversation on the dollar, which he has said repeatedly is sure to weaken over time. As I have been telling our investors, it is time to start buying foreign stock listed in New York, and this week I will continue to be a buyer, and it does seem the message is catching on, foreign shares traded in the United States rose on Friday as investors’ risk appetite was boosted after major U.S. stock indexes rose to their multi-year highs. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s pledge to keep cheap money flowing through the economy pushed the Nasdaq to a 10-year high, and gold and silver broke records. News from China may weigh on investors Monday, the Chinese manufacturing index declined in April from March, indicating that growth may moderate in the world’s second-biggest economy after the government raised interest rates and allowed faster gains in the yuan. The Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 52.9 from 53.4, China’s logistics federation and the statistics bureau said in an e-mail yesterday. I am inclined to ignore this report as all other data from China is positive, Chinese companies will feature in my buying in the comping week. HSBC Holdings Plc, had indicated that manufacturing grew in April at the same pace as in March. That survey covered more than 430 companies. |
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krisluke
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03-May-2011 20:15
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The Death of Osama bin LadenReuters
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krisluke
Supreme |
03-May-2011 20:13
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Politics In 60 Seconds: What You Need To Know Right Now |
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krisluke
Supreme |
03-May-2011 20:11
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Dubai-Owned Emirates Says Oil Prices " Threaten To Bring All Of Us To Our Knees" |
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krisluke
Supreme |
03-May-2011 20:09
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10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell |
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krisluke
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03-May-2011 20:06
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Dollar finds respite euro well sought on dips
* Dollar index up 0.5 pct on day but in sight of 3-yr lows
  * Short positions in greenback start to look overdone   * Sterling slumps as weak data pushes back rate hike chances     (Recasts, adds detail, updates prices)   By Neal Armstrong   LONDON, May 3 (Reuters) - The dollar edged off three-year lows on Tuesday as a build-up of bets to sell it based on loose U.S monetary policy ran out of steam, though gains against the euro were capped by good demand on dips for the shared currency.   The dollar index, which tracks its performance against a basket of major currencies, was last up 0.5 percent at 73.296, still not far off a three-year low of 72.722 hit this week. Its decline in the past few weeks has taken it ever closer to a record low of 70.698 set in March 2008.   The dollar slipped to a record low against the Swiss franc around 0.8615 francs, slipping under Friday's low of 0.8626.   The fact currency speculators have already piled up bets against the dollar means it could get a lift if short-covering sets in.   " In the near term the dollar's fall could extend further still but levels are now becoming more stretched in terms of valuation and positioning. Momentum indicators are also showing the dollar is very oversold," said Lee Hardman, currency strategist at BTM-UFJ.   The euro was down 0.4 percent at $1.4772 after falling to $1.4751 in early European trade. Dealers reported good demand to buy into the $1.4750 zone.   " It's very much a case of buying the dips in euro/dollar at these levels. Rate hike expectations are anchoring the euro," said Chris Walker, currency strategist at UBS in London.   The single currency hit a 17-month high of $1.4903 on Monday on trading platform EBS on the view that euro zone interest rate would be raised again this year, in contrast to an ultra-loose outlook for U.S. monetary policy.   Surging energy costs drove euro zone producer price inflation to its highest level in 2-1/2 years in March, strengthening the case for more interest rate rises.     STERLING KNOCKED   Sterling fell to its lowest level since March 2010 against the euro at 89.80 pence after a survey of UK manufacturing came in below market expectations. The pound also shed over half a U.S. cent to trade at $1.6468 against the dollar.   " Core UK data has begun to disappoint to the downside. It seems like all bets are off for a UK rate hike until year-end," said Walker at UBS.   The Canadian dollar pared gains after a brief relief rally as Canada's ruling Conservatives won a crushing victory in the federal election.   The U.S. dollar was last at C$0.9538, up around 0.4 percent on the day after slipping to C$0.9460 in overnight trade.   The Australian dollar dipped after Australia's central bank kept interest rates unchanged at 4.75 percent as expected. The Reserve Bank of Australia said underlying inflation looked to have bottomed and would increase somewhat as the economy strengthened, sounding a little less hawkish than some analysts had expected.   The Aussie dollar last stood at $1.0859, having dipped from around $1.0920 after the RBA's decision.   Sentiment for the U.S. dollar has been overwhelmingly bearish as ultra-loose U.S. monetary policy has made it the funding currency of choice in popular carry trades that helped propel the Aussie to a 29-year high of $1.1012 on Monday.   The dollar hit a one-month low around 80.79 yen in late morning trade, with the yen helped by a broad fall in global equity markets. |
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krisluke
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03-May-2011 20:04
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China stocks inch up in low volume though outlook dims
Hong Kong night skyline
  * Shanghai Composite edges up 0.7 pct, turnover light   * Utilities outperform on power shortage   * China Resources Power jumps 5 pct on heavy volume (Updates to close)   By Vikram Subhedar and Clement Tan   HONG KONG, May 3 (Reuters) - China shares rose on light volume on Tuesday helped by defensive sectors, though may follow Hong Kong stocks lower as investors persistently move money out of commodity-related sectors on uncertainty over the growth outlook.   Utilities, in particular independent power producers (IPPS), outperformed on expectations that power shortages in China would boost demand while a stall in the commodity rally continued to weigh on cyclical stocks such as oil and coal producers.   Hong Kong's Hang Seng ended down 0.4 percent as large cap financials shed early gains despite Chinese banks reporting robust first-quarter results last week. The China Enterprises Index of top locally listed mainland companies fell 0.8 percent.   In China, the Shanghai Composite Index ended up 0.7 percent at 2,932.2 but A-share turnover at 9.6 billion yuan remained 20 percent below the average over the past month, suggesting a lot of investors were cautious about participating in markets.   " The rebound today is not supported by volume, so it's likely to be a short-term rebound after a sharp dip in some sectors," said Cao Xuefeng, head of research at Huaxi Securities in Chengdu.   The Hong Kong utilities sector sub-index was the only sector to end in positive territory on the day. Materials and energy were the top drags.   " Equity volumes across the board are quite weak. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people right now are sitting on cash," said John Mar, regional head of sales trading at Daiwa Capital Markets in Hong Kong.   Mar said some clients had preferred to take bets off the table, expressing concern over China's underperformance and the movement of copper prices, often considered a barometer of global economic growth, in the opposite direction to precious metals.   According to Daiwa Capital, Hong Kong, Philippines and Thailand were the only markets to have recorded consistent inflows over the past four weeks, putting these markets most at risk should investor sentiment weaken.     IPPs SURGE, COULD SEE PULLBACK   China Resources Power led the charge among Chinese IPPs, jumping 5.3 percent on over 3.5 times its average 30-day volume. The stock is up 7 percent so far this year after declining 9 percent in 2010.   China Resources Power has heavy exposure to Jiangsu province along the mainland's eastern coast which has been hit by lack of adequate power supplies. About 39 percent of the company's total capacity is spent on the province, the highest share among listed peers, Daiwa analysts said in a note.   In a report released last week BNP Paribas forecast severe power shortages, particularly in the Jiangsu and Shandong provinces in China, to lift power demand while possible tariff hikes would benefit producers.   The utilities sub-index in Hong Kong was up 9 percent since mid-March to its highest levels in three and a half years.   However, the strong gains in a short period of time suggested that near-term profit-taking is a risk as investors switch in and out of sectors.   " In this climate, investors are likely to buy on the dip in defensive stocks, with pharmaceuticals possibly the next to see some interest," said Cao from Huaxi Securities. |
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krisluke
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03-May-2011 20:02
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Futures lower as dollar gain hits commodities
* Pfizer dips as results roughly in line
  * Dollar advances, drags commodities   * Futures off: Dow 51 pts, S& P 6.7 pts, Nasdaq 9.75 pts (Adds quote, updates prices)   By Chuck Mikolajczak   NEW YORK, May 3 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures fell on Tuesday as strength in the dollar pressured commodity prices and investors eyed a possible pullback in equity prices after a recent run-up.   The dollar hobbled near a three-year trough against a currency basket, undermined by loose U.S. monetary policy. But analysts said the fall looked overextended due to extreme short positioning.   The dollar index, measured against a basket of major currencies, was last up 0.4 percent.   Shares of mining company Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc and big metal exchange-traded funds for silver and gold, including the iShares Silver Trust and the SPDR Gold Trust, edged lower in premarket trading.   Brent crude fell 1.1 percent to $123.77 a barrel, and U.S. crude futures shed 1 percent to $112.40.   " Basically, the dollar is a little bit higher, so that is weighing on risk this morning," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners in New York.   " Now we are seeing a little bit of divergence. We are beginning to see perhaps a little bit of a pullback in commodity prices and a dollar that might be in for a short-term bounce, so that cuts into risk."   S& P 500 futures fell 6.7 points and were below fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract. Dow Jones industrial average futures dropped 51 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures lost 9.75 points.   The benchmark S& P 500 has risen 4.3 percent since April 18, when it hovered near the technical support level of 1,300.   Pfizer Inc fell 1.1 percent to $20.80 premarket after the drugmaker reported quarterly results roughly in line with expectations and said it expects by the second half of the year to complete its review of which company businesses are appropriate to keep.   Other companies expected to post earnings include Comcast Corp, MasterCard Inc, Marathon Oil Corp and Cephalon Inc.   At 10 a.m. EST, the Commerce Department releases March factory orders. Economists in a Reuters survey expected a 1.9 percent rise, compared with a 0.1 percent drop in February.   European shares fell nearly 1 percent at midday as investors locked in profits following an eight-session winning streak for a key index, with declines in automakers and heavyweight miners weighing on the market. Asian shares were also dragged down by miners.   U.S. stocks slipped Monday as an early bounce from Osama bin Laden's death gave way to questions about the longevity of the market's recent rally. |
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krisluke
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02-May-2011 14:28
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N.Korea to run out of food in June: aid groupWASHINGTON (AFP) – Parts of North Korea are expected to run out of food in less than two months due to a poor harvest even if foreign donors agree to provide assistance, a US relief group said Wednesday. Samaritan’s Purse, one of five US groups that visited the impoverished communist state in February, said that a harsh winter killed crops and some North Koreans were already eating grass, leaves and tree bark. “We believe that, in many of the areas that we visited, in mid-June they’re going to run out of food,” said Ken Isaacs, the Christian-oriented group’s vice president for programs and government relations. Isaacs said that the relief groups want to provide 160,000 to 175,000 tons of food to North Korea — about half of what the regime requested — but that it would be impossible to arrange shipments in time to meet the shortfall. “If a green light was given today, that food probably isn’t going to be into North Korea for about three months,” Isaacs told a seminar at the American Enterprise Institute think-tank. His warning came as former US president Jimmy Carter, a proponent of engagement with North Korea, led a delegation of elder statesmen to Pyongyang for talks on issues including food aid. But US President Barack Obama’s administration has held off on deciding whether to provide food assistance, with officials saying they want more evidence of an urgent need before committing to assistance. Several lawmakers from the rival Republican Party have urged Obama not to authorize aid, suspecting that North Korea wants the food for its elite or to stock up for next year’s celebrations marking the 100th birth anniversary of the regime’s founder Kim Il-Sung. Hundreds of thousands of North Koreans died in a famine in the 1990s. But North Korea, which prides itself on its “juche” philosophy of self-reliance, abruptly kicked out the US aid groups in 2009. — AFP |
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krisluke
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02-May-2011 14:24
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What is Driving Gasoline PricesThe Big Q: Red, what is behind the price rise in gasoline The Big A: Lots of folks in the US grit their teeth when filling their gas tanks these days. The AAA survey says in most of the USA the price per gallon is at least US$4.00 and some places it is almost at US$5.00 gal. And with that the most often asked question last week is Why. Part the answer is the increase in demand and geo-political concerns in some Crude Oil producing nations. Another reason is the taxes levied by the state and federal governments, and another reason is speculation in the free market. Early in April Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) reported that speculation is partially responsible for driving up the price in Crude Oil faster, higher than supply and demand. That means that market players are placing bets on Crude Oil making the price rise. And they can win, lose or break even on their speculations, they are not consumers so when they benefit they do not share their profits with the consumers at the pump. On the other side of that equation the consumer does share in the losses. Remember the World runs for the most part on energy derived from petroleum (Crude Oil, Nat Gas and Coal) The oil and gas industry in the USA has a powerful voice in Washington, DC called the American Petroleum Institute, and the industry POV is that, although Big Oil’s earnings are huge now, they only reflect the Oil and Gas Companies’ contribution to the US economy, and that the price of their stocks are major contributors to the Nation’s laborer pension funds and the portfolios of their investors, both institutional and individual. I personally believe that the numbers get too much attention in the media and from pols as “Hot Button” issues. Sure, the overall profit numbers look big because the companies are big companies that move a lot of product around. To say that Big Oil’s profits are too big only works if talk about the number. They are not overly big profits when compared to other companies and other industries. Yes, when the price of gasoline rises, lots of folks complain, perhaps because it is not comfortable when the status quo of low priced energy rises. From my POV high Crude Oil prices mean, among other things, that it becomes more attractive to develope alternative energy something that I believe in. The worst thing that ever happened to wind and solar power companies was when oil prices collapsed from US$147 bbl to US$30 odd a bbl Y’s 2008 and 2009. On the other hand, when gasoline gets pricey people who bought a Prius get a payback, and that is good. The fact of the matter is that every time a driving consumer visits the Gas Pump that signify’s a transfer of money from many to a few, and in most cases, from the regular guy and gal to Big Oil companies who are mega rich in terms of their bottom line numbers. Overall Big Oil’s company profits do not finding their way back into the communities from which they are derived, and they are not used to create more jobs in the USA, or being invested in new equipment and exploration. Of course, some of the profits go to shareholder as dividends and higher stock prices. It is interesting to note that in the case of 2 of the Big 5 Exxon (NYSE:EOM) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), 50% + of their bottom line profits are used to buy back their own stock. US$5.7B of Exxon’s profits went to buy back its own stock, and the Company announced that it expects to buy back yet another US$5B worth in Q-2 of Y 2011. In Conoco’s case, it earned US$3B in Q-1 of 2011, and used US$1.6B of that to buy back 21M of it shares. You should know that buying back stock out of the market is not uncommon among public companies when they experience a sudden and often temporary rise in revenue. Stock buyback plans are usually a guarantee that the company’s stock price will rise, by boosting earnings per outstanding share, increasing the demand for the stock, and sending a signal to the market that the company believes its stock is undervalued. But from the POV of a company’s CEO, and its Board of Directors, stock buybacks have lots of advantages. Top company executives often get significant stock options. If stock prices do not go up, said options are worthless. On the other hand, the higher the stock price goes, the more valuable the option. For example Exxon’s stock is up 32% in 6 months. Companies that buy back their stock can either retire it or simply keep it themselves, under the control of the Board of Directors, to reissue later or award as bonuses or to make acquisitions, it is “Money”. Dividends, however, are not a great deal for company executives, as in the USA they are taxed as income. An increase in the stock price is not taxed as income, and it is not taxed at all until the stock is sold, and only then at the capital gains tax rate, which is limited to 15%. A 15% tax rate is a lot for the regular American family, which pays less than 5% of its income in federal taxes. But it is a significant break to those paying income tax at the highest marginal rate of 35% The buying back shares benefits existing shareholders, and existing management. In Y 2007, when Exxon was using US$30B a year from the previous Crude Oil-price rise to buy back its shares, a columnist said that: “In most cases, stock buybacks are suspect…. Managements should ignore investors’ call to repurchase their shares and invest money in ways that will increase profit, not just earnings per share.” Certainly that gentleman is entitled to his opinion, but he is writing for readers not for the managers and investors in the companies. An economics professor at NYU, studies wealth distribution recently opined, that when it comes to total equity in stocks it is very concentrated in the hands of the rich. The fact is that fewer than 50% of all American households owned any stocks as of Y 2007, and that is likely less now” because of the financial crisis that frightened most into selling at the low, and that includes 401k’s, mutual funds and other issues. Who are the shareholders then you ask, well, they are wealthiest 1% of households at 38%, the wealthiest 5% have 69% the wealthiest 10% have 81%. The lowest 60% of US households owns 2.5% of the total stock in listed public companies.. Big Oil is also conserving profits, because it is a precedented fact that just as soon as Crude Oil prices started to rise again a lot of that money started going to the bank, and that added more to the US$1T+ in corporate cash in reserve for a rainy day, that like personal and private bank saving is slows a recovery not fuel it. Also, a large portion of Q-1’s profits derived from federal subsidies, say Plus or Minus US$6B. Recently US President Barack Obama proposed repealing US$4B a year in federal subsidies the American Petroleum Institute says the proposal would actually cost the industry about US$90B over the next 10 yrs. The Congressional response to Mr. Obama’s proposal was weak from both sides of the aisle. The Dems, afraid of being thrown clearly out of the Congress and the White House by an angry, gas-impoverished voting public, are seeing such a fight as a winning (vote getting) political issue. The fact is that a repeal would neither increase nor decrease the price of gasoline at the pump, it would take a chunk out of Big Oil’s bottom line. But, pushing for the repeal will highlight the modern Republican Party’s allegiance to now thriving Oil and Gas interests, something that, in a period of high gasoline prices and even higher profits, may not augur well for them. But, as you ponder this information you must be keenly aware that the Oil and Gas industry does with its cash is they lobby influence in Washington DC. Example: Exxon, during the same Quarter it made about US$11B it spent US$3M on lobbyists, small but significant. Not to mention the contributions made to the pols across the spectrum. By last Friday all the Big Five Oil companies had reported Q-1 earnings. Between the 5 of them, ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips they made US$34B in profits in Q- of Y 2011 + 42% Y-Y. Exxon, the largest cleared US$10.7B profit from January through March, up 69% from Y 2010, and that is because the price at the gas pump is up from, (on the US national average) US$2.88 to $4.00+ per gallon of gasoline. Gasoling prices rise as Crude Oil prices rise, and when Crude Oil prices rise for reasons that have nothing to do with how much it costs to bring it out of the ground, there comes a “windfall” for the folks who produce it. The average cost to produce 1 bbl of Crude Oil in the US, including exploration, development, extraction and taxes, is about US$30, according to a US. Energy Information Administration survey. The current cost to buy 1 is about $113 as of the close of pit trade in the US last Friday. Still, as I see it gasoline is cheap when you compare it to what a Coffee at Starbucks or a bottle of Fiji water, and it does get one to work and back… Stay tuned… |
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krisluke
Supreme |
02-May-2011 14:22
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NATO turns AssassinNATO turns Assassin NATO denied targeting Gaddafi, or his family, but said in a statement it had launched air strikes on military targets in the same suburban area of Tripoli as the bombed house where Gaddafi’s son Saif al-Arab and his three children, two 2-year-olds and a five-month-old were killed. NATO deny the third such failed assassination attempt. The obvious assassination attempts against Gaddafi are exceeding the provisions of the U.N. resolution to protect civilians. However Gaddafi will not find a great deal of sympathy in the world media due to his direct involvement in the Pan Am Flight 103 Bombing over Lockerbie killing all 243 passengers and 16 crew members ands 11 people on the ground. On 15 August 2003, Libya’s UN ambassador, Ahmed Own, submitted a letter to the UN Security Council formally accepting “responsibility for the actions of its officials” in relation to the Lockerbie bombing. Shayne Heffernan oversees the management of funds for institutions and high net worth individuals. Shayne Heffernan holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services. |
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krisluke
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02-May-2011 14:20
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Shayne Heffernan Wall St OutlookAs May is about to open it pays to remember that this is an Historically weak month for stocks. It is also important to remember that we are now at Multi-year highs on Wall St. The Dow climbed 4 percent for the month while the S& P 500 rose 2.8 percent and the Nasdaq gained 3.3 percent. The CBOE Volatility Index or VIX, remained low, closing Friday’s session below 15, although it was up 0.9 percent for the day. Earnings season is coming to an end, investors will shift their focus to economic data this week, especially the April employment report on Friday. Investors will scrutinize the jobs data for signs of improvement in the labor market. After a very mixed batch of data last week, investors would need to see a solid gain in jobs to believe in sustainable economic growth. Nasdaq’s rebalancing of its index may also cause a bit of a stir in the market this week as well. On Friday, the United States releases its employment report for April. The world’s largest economy is expected to have added 190,000 jobs, not nearly enough to make much of a dent in the jobless rate, which is expected to hold at 8.8 percent. So far, there is no evidence higher prices have lifted wage demands, according to researchers at the New York Federal Reserve Bank. In the past couple of decades, inexpensive labor from emerging markets helped keep a lid on U.S. wage pressures, but those times may have changed. Other economic data due next week include the ISM manufacturing data and domestic car sales on Monday, the ISM services-sector data on Wednesday, and weekly jobless claims on Thursday. My broad strategy this week is to hedge, using the Nasdaq Futures (Selling them Short) and buying quality stocks during dips on the market. While long term my outlook remains bullish I am expecting to see a pull back on Wall St before the next run forward. The most likely to fall in the Nasdaq. Nasdaq will be rebalancing its benchmark Nasdaq 100 index on Monday that will slash Apple Inc’s weighting. The rebalancing will affect the relative weights of all the securities in the index and cause popular index-tracking funds such as the PowerShares QQQ to buy and sell shares to match the new composition. “I don’t see how anybody can be other than enthused about this country,” Buffett told Berkshire shareholders on Saturday and both myself and Paul Ebeling agree with that sentiment. We also share Where Buffett’s concern over the conversation on the dollar, which he has said repeatedly is sure to weaken over time. As I have been telling our investors, it is time to start buying foreign stock listed in New York, and this week I will continue to be a buyer, and it does seem the message is catching on, foreign shares traded in the United States rose on Friday as investors’ risk appetite was boosted after major U.S. stock indexes rose to their multi-year highs. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s pledge to keep cheap money flowing through the economy pushed the Nasdaq to a 10-year high, and gold and silver broke records. News from China may weigh on investors Monday, the Chinese manufacturing index declined in April from March, indicating that growth may moderate in the world’s second-biggest economy after the government raised interest rates and allowed faster gains in the yuan. The Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 52.9 from 53.4, China’s logistics federation and the statistics bureau said in an e-mail yesterday. I am inclined to ignore this report as all other data from China is positive, Chinese companies will feature in my buying in the comping week. HSBC Holdings Plc, had indicated that manufacturing grew in April at the same pace as in March. That survey covered more than 430 companies. |
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krisluke
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02-May-2011 14:16
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China manufacturing growth slows in April, hit by tightening
An employee works at the workshop of a textile factory in Huaibei, Anhui province
  BEIJING (Reuters) - China's manufacturing growth slowed in April, a survey showed on Sunday, suggesting that the government's tightening efforts have weighed on the world's second-largest economy more heavily than expected.   The official purchasing managers' index for China fell to 52.9 in April from 53.4 in March, well shy of market forecasts for an increase to 54.0.   The survey, which is designed to provide a snapshot of conditions in China's vast manufacturing sector, was largely in line with a separate PMI sponsored by HSBC published on Friday that clung near a seven-month low at 51.8 in April.   With inflation running at its fastest in nearly three years, China has taken a series of policy actions to rein in prices, raising interest rates and banks' required reserves multiple times, ordering banks to lend less and speeding up the pace of currency appreciation.   On the positive side of the ledger, the official PMI showed that these steps have at least partially hit the mark. A sub-index measuring input prices fell to 66.2 in April, a seven-month low, from 68.3 in March.   But the survey also flashed worrying signals for the global economy, which has become increasingly reliant on Chinese demand as a source of growth with the United States, Europe and Japan still struggling to recover from the financial crisis.   " Overall, the PMI shows there is still a possibility that the Chinese economy may slow down, especially as falling demand growth leads to adjustments in inventories, increasing the possibility of slowing economic growth," said Zhang Liqun, a government researcher.   The new orders sub-index weakened to an eight-month low of 53.8 in April from 55.2 in March. Much of that drop was driven by slower growth in export orders, whose sub-index dipped to 51.3 from 52.5.   " The fall may show that export growth will continue to slow down," Zhang said in a comment on behalf of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, which compiles the official PMI.   GROWTH STILL ROBUST   Despite Beijing's sustained tightening campaign over the past half year, economists polled by Reuters still expect the Chinese economy to expand at a nearly double-digit pace this year. They forecast that it will grow 9.5 percent in 2011 after last year's 10.3 percent expansion.   In a measure of that robust momentum, it was the 26th straight month that the official PMI had stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction.   The World Bank said on Thursday it was too early for China to halt its policy tightening as it raised its year-average inflation forecast in a quarterly review of the economy.   Stubborn price pressures have fuelled market talk that Beijing could let the yuan rise at a faster clip, or even take more drastic action by pushing through a large revaluation of the currency.   The government has in the past consistently ruled out a one-off revaluation, saying there were no grounds for any major shift in exchange rate policy. Yet it has demonstrated its appetite for a gradually stronger yuan in recent weeks by guiding it to a succession of record highs against a sluggish dollar.   Investors are on guard for the next round of Chinese monetary tightening. The central bank has raised interest rates four times since October and economists polled by Reuters expect another increase over the next two months.   (Additional reporting by Sally Huang Editing by Benjamin Kang Lim) |
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krisluke
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02-May-2011 14:15
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Oil falls by 1 pct after U.S. forces kill Bin Laden
* U.S. President Obama says Osama Bin Laden is dead
  * Brent crude falls as much as 1 pct to $124.65/bbl   * Saudis raised output to 8.5 mln bpd in April -sources   * Libya: one of Gaddafi's sons killed by NATO raid (Adds analyst comments, background on oil industry attack)   By Alejandro Barbajosa   SINGAPORE, May 2 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell by 1 percent on Monday on news that U.S. forces had killed al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden, after a decade of counter-terrorism efforts that deepened American military involvement in central Asia and the oil-rich Middle East.   President Barack Obama said Saudi-born Bin Laden was killed in Pakistan on Sunday. The U.S. is in custody of his body. [ID:nN01168438]   ICE Brent crude for June < LCOc1> fell $1.14 to $124.75 a barrel by 0530 GMT, after shedding as much as $1.24 to $124.65. It was still about $2 off last month's 32-month high above $127. U.S. crude < CLc1> slid $1.26 to $112.67.   The oil market focused on whether the news would help unwind the risk premium attached to prices because of war in Libya and unrest in the Middle East and North Africa.   " There's probably a knee-jerk reaction to the extent that part of the geopolitical risk has been supported by al-Qaeda, so there will be an initial sell-off," said Jeremy Friesen, commodity strategist at Societe Generale, adding that the effect of the news on prices might wane later this week.   " Al-Qaeda is still a threat and it's independent from Bin Laden, but I think to the extent that he has been an important rallying point for that ideology, it's a positive."   The focus was also on potential retaliation by al-Qaeda. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the FBI have not issued any warning of a credible or imminent threat, but Obama warned Americans to remain vigilant.   " It is not clear that Bin Laden's death will lead to a meaningful or lasting change in geopolitical risk," said Ric Spooner, chief market analyst at CMC Markets.   " To the extent that Bin Laden was a symbolic rallying point for the wider forces of terrorism, there may in fact be some increased risk of retaliation in the near future."   Economists including David Cohen from Action Economics warned that in the near term Bin Laden's killing might trigger a violent response by al-Qaeda, but analysts said it was unlikely the network would succeed in disrupting oil supplies.   The closest al-Qaeda has been to hitting the oil industry was on Feb. 24, 2006, when Saudi forces repelled a suicide attack on the Abqaiq oil-processing center, the world's largest.   " Over the last ten years, al-Qaeda has substantially weakened," said Ben Westmore, commodities economist at the National Australia Bank. " I don't think they will be successful at carrying out an attack on an oil facility."     Oil was already down before the news about Bin Laden, after NATO air strikes over the weekend killed one of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi's sons and industry sources said that Saudi Arabia raised output in April.   Gaddafi's youngest son and three grandchildren were killed in a NATO air strike, the Libyan government said on Sunday. Britain said that while it was not targeting the leader, it was homing in on the regime's military machine. [ID:nLDE73T0D1]   " What's happening in Libya is probably an event that will see Gaddafi moved out of his position, so the risk premium which relates to Middle East concerns will start to erode," said Jonathan Barratt, managing director at Commodity Broking Services in Sydney, estimating that premium at about $18.   Saudi Arabia's crude oil output edged back up in April to around 8.5 million barrels per day (bpd) from roughly 8.3 million bpd in March as demand picked up, Saudi-based industry sources said on Sunday. [ID:nLDE74005M]   " Saudi Arabia has increased production, we know that the dollar is slightly better bid and you have big movements in the precious metals markets," Barratt said.   The dollar strengthened by more than 0.33 percent on Monday following last week's slide, deterring investors from piling into commodities this week and triggering a 10 percent plunge in spot silver prices.   Last week's Federal Reserve reassurance that economic stimulus would continue boosted U.S. crude to above $114 on Friday, the highest since September 2008, and gold to a record earlier on Monday.   Money managers increased their bets on higher U.S. crude oil prices to a combined record level in New York and London in the week to April 26, data from the CFTC showed on Friday, as U.S. prices rose to their highest level since September 2008. [ID:nN29293464]   On the New York Mercantile Exchange alone, net-long crude futures and options positions rose by 11,202 to 301,118, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said on Friday, just shy of an all-time high of 311,632 reached in March. [ID:nEMS4TV36F]   Volatility and uncertainty due to the pan-Arab protests and Libya's conflict have tempered oil trading. The U.S. 30-day average volume was down by nearly 130,000 lots compared with the 250-day average at the end of last week, Reuters data showed.   A holiday in parts of Asia, Europe and Latin America on Monday was also set to stifle trade. (Editing by Clarence Fernandez) |
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