there is still 40% upside, we maintain our BUY rating(Ocbc)

A theory of everything (sort of)

The IT revolution is making it harder to get ahead in life, while super-empowering people to challenge authority

Thomas L Friedman

It used to be that only cheap foreign manual labour was easily available now cheap foreign genius is easily available.

Good jobs do exist, but they require more education or technical skills.

WHO  are  prOfiteering  frOm  this  S C A M  ? ? ? ?

 

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As the debate rages on about whether the U.S. economy is headed for a douple-dip, one expert says another recession is all but guaranteed, and there's nothing that can be done to prevent it.

Paul Gambles, Managing Director of financial advisory and asset management firm MBMG Group said the bond market, which is the most reliable indicator, has been pointing to a slowdown since at least April or May. According to Gambles, the deleveraging process facing the U.S. is so severe that a recession is inevitable.

" If you've got a $14.5 trillion debt burden, it's going to be a pretty severe recession," he said. " Recession is usually linked to the size of the debt (a country) has to clear up."

In fact, Gambles believes the U.S. economy has been in trouble far longer than most people appreciate and has been merely using debt to prop up growth.

" The U.S. was borrowing somewhere north of $500 billion a year to create GDP growth of a little less than $500 billion a year," he said. " The U.S. has been at stall-speed for the past 10 years."

" (When) GDP growth is less than the increase in national debt every year, it just doesn't  make sense," Gambles said. " To us that is not real growth...It's just papering over the cracks, it's hiding over the fact that maybe we are already in a serious recession where growth is impacted by the sheer amount of debt that's out there."

Gambles said he's been taking advantage of the rally in the Treasury market over the past few months, but he thinks that party might end soon because a recession would hurt the government's ability to raise revenues.

" Once we get into that environment, at that point, you probably don't want to be holding Treasurys any more, because there's a huge amount of pressure coming down on the credit rating, not just from the growth slowdown or the move into recession (but the) move into deflation," Gambles said.

Instead, MBMG Group was holding 45 percent in cash in some of its most defensive portfolios and Gambles said he's also been moving money into the Singapore dollar [SGD=  1.2059    -0.0066  (-0.54%)   ] and Asian government bonds.

" What we are trying to do there is not only preserve capital but are there other opportunities with cash? So for instance Singapore dollar has been a theme we are interested in....and also some short term emerging market bonds," he added. " If you look at some of the shorter dated Indonesian bonds, we've had a kick-up from rupiah [IDR=  8540.00    2.00  (+0.02%)   ] doing ok, but also there's some yield from those instruments."

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Spore dollar is going so strong tourists will find it hard to spend more money here.

Genting Singapore – Summary Earnings Table

FYE Dec (SGD m)                                                                                  2009A                            2010A                          2011F                                  2012F                                        2013F

Revenue                                                                                                                49.5                                  2,753.3                       3,246.1                               3,464.5                                  3,716.3

EBITDA                                                                                                                          14.9                                1,422.1                        1,601.6                                1,662.8                                    1,800.9

Recurring Net Profit                                                                          (40.0)                                        782.6                              949.1                                1,003.9                                    1,139.7

Recurring Basic EPS (Cents)                                            (0.1)                                                6.4                                    7.7                                                  8.2                                                    9.3

EPS growth (%)                                                                                        (65.0)                                            n.m.                              20.4                                                  5.8                                                13.5

DPS (Sen)                                                                                                                      -                                                        -                                                -                                                            -                                                            -

PER                                                                                                                                    n.m.                                          26.8                                  22.3                                              21.0                                                18.5

EV/EBITDA (x)                                                                                                  n.m.                                            14.7                                  12.6                                                11.5                                              10.0

Div Yield (%)                                                                                                                -                                                        -                                                -                                                            -                                                          -

P/BV(x)                                                                                                                            4.9                                                  4.1                                        3.5                                                  3.0                                                    2.6

Net Gearing (%)                                                                                      22.0                                        Cash                                  Cash                                          Cash                                            Cash

ROE (%)                                                                                                                      (1.2)                                            16.9                                      17.0                                              15.3                                                14.9

ROA (%)                                                                                                                (0.6)                                                8.2                                            9.1                                                8.9                                                    9.6

Revision in Net Profit (%)                                                          n.a.                                                n.a.                                        +7.1                                            -4.5                                                    -4.2

Consensus Net Profit (SGD m)                                n.a.                                                n.a.                              1,118.2                                1,328.6                                    1,600.2