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elfinchilde Elite	30-Sep-2008 15:21        elfinchilde About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	note divergence amongst the counters now: pennies and china plays are faltering again. some of the blues holding. foreign names both buying and selling, incl european names now. those int, watch the patterns. credit lyonnais in sembcorp.
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colorado Member	30-Sep-2008 15:19        colorado About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Thanks Elfie for all your postings especially when you stand to gain nothing.  You really have a heart of gold for the newbies and we are forever grateful.  I believe many have benefitted from your postings so keep it coming and do ignore those who think they are "cleverer".  Charts don't lie and nothing is 100% except death. At the end of the day, we must all be responsible for our investment decisions. For those who turn around to bite the hand that has been feeding us all the "inside" information, shame on you!
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elfinchilde Elite	30-Sep-2008 15:05        elfinchilde About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	and 2nd round of play starts. capland going down again. hehe. note: capland is still not a buy for the longterm. where i would personally consider a longterm buy (my own criteria, fitting both TA and FA): at or below NAV, or if it's a blue, a reasonable ratio to NAV. Earnings proven. Potential growth proven. Dividend yield at least 5%. Technically, it must have resisted bottom and pinged up at least twice (ie, survived all the major bad news in the past few months). ST engg is an eg of the last: note how it has successfully pinged off the 246-248 lowest since jul 08. Those who purport themselves to be "longterm players": your buys should be just as long spaced out, bought only at bottom, in disciplined strikes. And not buy on monday, buy on wednesday, buy on friday.   And for the record, STE's NAV is 47c. so no, even st engg doesn't fit my criteria fully. hehe.
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elfinchilde Elite	30-Sep-2008 13:46        elfinchilde About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	hey novicex, no prob. thanks to tradechancellor and all too for their support. :) hehe, actually, i'm not frustrated. a little annoyed, yes; but otherwise, this is the market. i'm mostly detached emotionally. it's an old saying: "plan your trade and trade your plan." if you check back, and it's all going according to plan, what's the worry? that's how i keep a clear head and vision.   and yups, having an open mind is important. notice that i've never once said i'm right and others are wrong: what i simply do, is to present the facts as i see it (which is where the bias may come in), so that others can make up their own minds. that's why i always emphasise the caveat part, and to make one's own judgment. it's impossible to be 100% right all the time, and that's the truth. yes, des_khor is right on one thing: sentiment. which is where sentiment analysis comes in. To avoid behaving like the herd, one needs to have a clear strategy, mind and the guts to implement it. You need to know yourself, your own risk level, what you can stomach, what you can't. there's a post i did on my blog, about personality (believe i titled it 'the trend is your friend'). newbies should really pay attention to that, and not 'hot tips' or even TA or FA. Right at the start, it is self knowledge that is important. There's one thing that's always bugged me though: most singaporeans do not have the correct FA concept of 'value'. I mean, they see "value" in china stocks, in commods, in the blues.You just need to ask them if they've ever read the ARs of the companies they see 'value' in. In strict FA terms, most of these are actually overvalued. Yes, even now. They're growth counters or range play counters, not value counters. I've read so many ARs, and i can only find 2 value counters worth considering. What does that tell you? So that's a common misconception that needs to be addressed. cheers!
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wycklk Member	30-Sep-2008 13:40        wycklk About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi elf,   Thanks for your kind posting to share your analysis. Learnt a lot from your insights and perspective. So keep going !
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novicex Member	30-Sep-2008 13:30        novicex About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	hi elf, thanks so much for helping the newbies like myself. we appreciate it very much. please do not bother too much about 'ungrateful' people or people who oppose. i guess we should adopt an open mind to come to our own judgement after listening to several opinions. sometimes, i tend to think that they have different agendas.. and maybe to frustrate you so you can stop posting? please don't let that deter you from helping all of us..
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des_khor Supreme	30-Sep-2008 13:26        des_khor About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Tell me who is the God or MFT from this forum??"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Time will prove not 1 or 2 year , I believe China will get stronger in long term . The question of bottom or peak nobady will know and I believe all this got to do will sentiment and level of confident . When a stock hit a peak and over value yet still continue to go up ? this is apply to so call bottom when certain stock hit history low and under value yet still keep lau sai ?? Simply words > don't time the market , let's the market time you ! Cash rich is king !!
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elfinchilde Elite	30-Sep-2008 13:07        elfinchilde About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	i seem to remember des_khor having strong buy calls for china counters this whole while. finally got cold feet, eh? ;) (may i note here i've been bearish on china counters except as rapid scalps since jul or so.) charts: i'm just presenting it as it is. And note, i did not say DEFINITELY bottom. I said a strong case for bottom can be made IF we can close the gap. ie, if we do not close the gap, it is still down.  why the gap is impt: because macros-wise: it would mean the STI has twice rebounded from lowest to close 2,350, despite global bad sentiment. ie, buyer support. for techies, it can't get any clearer than that. Of course, what kind of recovery it'll be, is another matter altogether. May take years. Drifting, drifting, drifting. As to why i bother posting on forums. yah, sometimes i don't know also. have missed many trade signals while updating posts and helping panicked newbies everytime the market goes down. waste of time, isn't it, giving information to ungrateful people? giant investment banks: if you'd bothered to read my posts, i've already said so many times why you should never believe all these banks. how can anyone trust someone who's a BB to make an unbiased call. (-_-"). haha. but to each his own. the market proves in the end. cheers!
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des_khor Supreme	30-Sep-2008 12:59        des_khor About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Tell me who is the God or MFT from this forum??"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Sometime we just think back all this giant investment bank always do market research , in the end they also don't know how to take care of themself ! really make my toe laugh !!
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Farmer Master	30-Sep-2008 12:38        Farmer About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood:
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	Yes, this may be a short term bottom. But remember that current events are still unfolding, there will be more bottoms to beat should things become uglier!
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TradeChancellor Veteran	30-Sep-2008 12:26        TradeChancellor About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Des khor, she has presented a chart in her blog, showing evidence and not speaking into thin air. The good thing about charts are they are quite un-biased and objective.
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des_khor Supreme	30-Sep-2008 12:21        des_khor About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Tell me who is the God or MFT from this forum??"
x 0   x 2  Alert Admin	Nobody will know when is bottom ! if yes he will never wasting his time to be here to tell the whole world . elfinchilde      ( Date: 30-Sep-2008 11:56) Posted: if STI can take the gapup and close 2,350 today, it's surest sign of bottom: twice tested on heavy events but recovered. on condition that 2350 is beaten today.
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elfinchilde Elite	30-Sep-2008 12:12        elfinchilde About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 3   x 0  Alert Admin	http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2008/09/case-for-bottoming.html here. for those who need the graphical interpretation of my post below. (hmm, i didn't draw the downward channel very well; but it'll do. pay attention to the support lines and candles formed).
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elfinchilde Elite	30-Sep-2008 11:56        elfinchilde About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	if STI can take the gapup and close 2,350 today, it's surest sign of bottom: twice tested on heavy events but recovered. on condition that 2350 is beaten today.
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DnApeh Master	30-Sep-2008 11:15        DnApeh About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Many thanks. I will consider AI SEE BUAY SEE.
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elfinchilde Elite	30-Sep-2008 11:03        elfinchilde About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	singtel: not yet. support 305/304 but heavy selling Qs; lidding 310. DBS: not yet. watch 16.11. buy queues thin. UOB: 16.66 lidding. 1634, 1620, 1610 forms the support. technically appears stronger than DBS. OCBC: anytime is a buy actually. sub 6.9, see if can get lower. consistent buyer support. 685, 683, 680 strong support. note: all levels are just for today; i haven't read the ARs of DBS/UOB, so you are on your own for these ones. have said before tho that of all the banks, i actually prefer OCBC; as they've accounted/made provisions for 100% of their CDO obligations already. And NPL (non performing loans) account for just 1.4% of their loan folio. expect afternoon selling when europe opens tho, the kneejerk selldown.
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Farmer Master	30-Sep-2008 10:54        Farmer About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	No suicide case link to the crisis has been reported so far. Supper bull run era was just over last year, believe those who're still holding in the market are either rich or had made $ during the last bull thus able to foot the bill.
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hohokit Veteran	30-Sep-2008 10:53        hohokit About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Me lor jump up from my chair  to do some trading.Wish me luck.
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nickyng Supreme	30-Sep-2008 10:46        nickyng About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	aya...DJ crash 700..so wat? the phoneix will rise from the ashes....A NEW BEGINNING will start lah... relax lah....WE WILL RIDE it THRU' ! hey! i wonder anyone will be commit suicide due to the recent turmoil and the MOTHER CRASH today ?!?! :(( i hope these folks can pull thru too....alas...
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DnApeh Master	30-Sep-2008 10:45        DnApeh About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hey, elf. SingTel and the banks, please?
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