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Rubber prices
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Nostradamus
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14-Jan-2008 23:11
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Tokyo rubber futures regained some strength Fri, wiping out losses in the morning session.The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for Jun delivery rose 1.2 yen to end at 298 yen per kg. The Euro continues to strengthen against the US$ on slowing growth in US and speculation US investment banks will announce writedowns of as much as US$25 billion worth of assets this week. The dollar is less than a cent away from the record low on Nov 23 of $1.4967. The US currency may fall to $1.55 per euro by the end of the first quarter, said London-based Bilal Hafeez, global head of currency strategy at Deutsche Bank AG, the world's largest foreign-currency trader. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
12-Jan-2008 11:36
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Tokyo rubber futures slipped on Fri as a fall of oil prices prompted technical selling, but firmness in other commodities and strong demand in the physical market provided support. The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for Jun delivery fell 1.2 yen to end at 298 yen per kg. "Recent falls in energy prices put pressure on rubber. TOCOM rubber tends to be capped around this time of the year before wintering in Thailand," said Hisaaki Tasaka, a market analyst at Ace Koeki Co Ltd. "But falls in rubber will be limited as few people expect energy prices to fall sharply from here." TOCOM rubber could face some resistance at the 5-day MA of 299.9 yen and the 10-day MA of 304.8 yen, traders said. The benchmark rubber contract has been in a downward trend since reaching an 18-month high 313.3 yen on Dec 27. However, TOCOM futures prices were expected to be supported by strong physical rubber prices as China has been seeking rubber ahead of the week-long Lunar New Year holiday. Supply was improving in key producing areas of Thailand and Indonesia, but still short of demand likely to remain strong through Feb, they said. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
11-Jan-2008 00:13
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I think GMG has topped. Good to take profit. Tokyo rubber futures slipped on Thu as players continued selling contracts to avoid risks in a directionless market after prices broke below 300 yen. The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for Jun delivery fell 2 yen to end at 298 yen per kg. TOCOM prices might fall further if the yen kept rising and triggered stop-loss selling, especially when prices were below 300 yen, the key psychological level, dealers said. However, physical rubber prices remained firm as strong demand offset falls on TOCOM. But physical trade was slow ahead of the weekend and with Indonesia and Malaysia on holiday, traders said. "We expect busy trade again next week as the Chinese still need to buy more ahead of the Lunar New Year," an Indonesian trader said, referring to next month's week-long holiday in China. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
10-Jan-2008 00:43
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GMG has resistance around $0.16. Next resistance is $0.17. Or it may cover the gap at $0.18. Tokyo rubber futures rose on Wed, lifted by a rise of crude oil prices and other commodities, but a firm Japanese yen still weighed on prices. The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for Jun delivery rose 2.1 yen to end at 306.6 yen per kg. Strong oil prices often support rubber prices as they make synthetic rubber, a crude product and an alternative to natural rubber, more expensive. Spot gold surged to a record on Wed as fresh funds poured into a market supported by a bearish outlook for the dollar and strong oil prices. It surpassed Tue's previous record of US$881.10 an ounce, with the market gaining momentum as Japanese gold futures prices rallied, but rubber's rise on TOCOM could prove temporary. "Firm oil prices still provided support, but I'm afraid the rising yen could drag TOCOM prices down again. TOCOM's gains could be limited," one dealer said. In the physical market, rubber prices were higher, backed by the gains on TOCOM and strong demand. Physical trade was busy with several enquiries from tyremakers, including those in China, trying to buy ahead of the week-long Lunar New Year holiday in Feb, traders said. "Trading should be busier next week as everybody has to buy because they expect tight production in February," a Thai trader said. Supply in Thailand, the world's biggest producer, was expected to fall in Feb as the wintering dry season starts in the country's key rubber producing areas. In the dry season, which usually runs through May, rubber trees shed their leaves and produce less latex. |
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Green8
Senior |
09-Jan-2008 22:42
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It is farmers' time. Look at the price of agriculture crops esp those take a longer time to grow and always high demand, inflation rate.... money value ..... oil price.....world economy ... |
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knightrider
Elite |
09-Jan-2008 11:43
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Cheong Liao ! | ||||
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
08-Jan-2008 23:45
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Rubber futures on TOCOM gathered steam late Tue, wiping out the early losses on renewed buying. The benchmark, most distant Jun '08 contract climbed to 303.7 yen per kg, up 2.2 yen from Mon. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
07-Jan-2008 23:22
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And don't forget the strong Euro and S$ will adversely impact GMG's profit as mentioned in its profit warning. Monitor the weak US$. Tokyo rubber futures took a sharp downturn Mon, hit by waves of selling on weaker global oil and gold prices and a stronger Japanese yen. The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for Jun delivery went limit-down by 8 yen to end at 301.5 yen per kg, the lowest since Dec 21. TOCOM extended its trading hours by 2 hours as from Mon. Falling prices for oil, used to make synthetic rubber, encouraged stop-loss selling in TOCOM contracts, dealers said. The recovery of the yen against the dollar also kept pressure on prices for dollar-based rubber commodities and encouraged players to sell TOCOM contracts. In the physical market, rubber prices were quoted mostly unchanged as strong demand offset falls on TOCOM. Physical trade was likely to revive this week as rubber businesses in the region reopened after the year-end holidays and falls on TOCOM should attract more buyers, traders said. China, the world's biggest buyer, bought several grades of rubber last week and was expected to continue buying this week to replenish stocks ahead of the week-long Lunar New Year in Feb, they said. "China bought several grades of rubber through dealers in S'pore and also from producers in Thailand and Malaysia," one trader said. Supply remained tight in Indonesia, the world's no. 2 producer, as rain and flood disrupted tapping. But no delayed shipments were reported, a trader said in Indonesia, where the rainy season runs through Apr. In Thailand, the world's biggest producer, supply was improving gradually but was still short of matching demand, resulting in firm physical prices, a Thai trader said. |
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shplayer
Elite |
07-Jan-2008 15:34
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timewatch, To 'play' GMG, suggest you track rubber prices. Rubber prices (bulk latex) have been on an uptrend since July07. It has recovered about 65% of its fall from its peak in Jun06 to its lows in Dec06. Another factor to keep a watch over is the weather in Wast Africa......Cameroon nd Ivory Coast....where GMG have their plantation. Adverse weather will affect the ability of the tappers to do their work....thereby reducing output. Nostradamus' daily reports are informative....but you need to collate the information to time your entry/exit. ...this will certainly reduce your risk in this counter. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
07-Jan-2008 12:46
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Hi timewatch. When I issued a buy call on 27/12, GMG was $0.115. That would be a good level to buy. It has since risen $0.015. | ||||
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timewatch
Senior |
05-Jan-2008 19:12
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sir nostradamus, what is the best price to buy GMG- again i am looking for long term about 6 months to 8 months i guess. | ||||
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
05-Jan-2008 00:27
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Rubber futures on TOCOM turned upward slightly on Fri, but gains were limited by a jump in the yen against the dollar. The benchmark, most distant Jun '08 contract rose 0.5 yen from the previous business day to 309.5 yen per kg at the end of the half-day session. Japanese crude rubber stocks rose 4 % to 10,426 tonnes as of Dec 20 from 9,979 tonnes in the previous survey on Dec 10, the Rubber Trade Association of Japan said on Fri. But Japanese rubber inventories, reported every 10 days, were about 22% below the year-earlier level of 13,398 tonnes. Tokyo rubber traders said supplies for physical rubber have been tight as heavy rains at producing countries have affected tapping. Following are details of the association's latest data: Dec 20 Dec 10 Nov 30 Nov 20 Nov 10 Crude rubber 10,426 9,979 9,969 10,298 8,950 Natural Latex 160 166 160 197 193 Synthetic (solid) 2,165 2,129 2,080 2,072 1,848 Synthetic Latices (D.R.C.) 23 23 23 23 23 Wet weather is hampering tapping in Indonesia's South Sumatra, one of the country's main rubber-growing areas, but that has not hit rubber production as some factories are still closed for the end-year holidays. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
28-Dec-2007 22:42
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Tokyo rubber futures ended lower on Fri, retreating from their highest levels in almost 18 months due to profit-taking triggered by a recovery in the yen. The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for Jun delivery fell 1.2 yen to settle at 309.0 yen per kg. On Thu, the contract rose to as high as 313.3 yen, the highest for any benchmark since Jul '06, and an increase of 24% compared to the start of this year. But momentum appeared limited in the absence of fresh fundamental factors in a Tokyo market, which has risen about 20% since a Dec trough of 216.6 yen. Funds have poured money into commodities throughout '07 amid worries about rising world energy costs and an uncertain outlook for conventional assets given the subprime housing loan crisis in the United States. Such buying has helped the TOCOM market extend its rally in the past weeks, and pushed the key contract above its 25-day MA on Dec 10 -- a technical sign that gave added impetus to the upward momentum. TOCOM rubber was expected to remain above the 300 yen psychological level, dealers said. In the physical market, rubber was quoted unchanged as demand from end-users offset falls on TOCOM. Traders said, however, that thin trade capped gains in with European and U.S. users off on year-end holidays, leaving only Chinese and Japanese buyers shopping around. Tyremakers bought Thai RSS3 at US$2.58 per kg for Jan shipment, but overall trading remained thin with most players on year-end holidays, a Thai trader said. "Tyremakers have to build up stocks to cover demand in Feb and Mar when prices will be higher than these because rubber trees will produce less latex due to the wintering-dry season," a Thai trader said. Thailand's dry season usually starts by the end of Feb and runs through to the end of Apr. Physical trade was likely to revive in Jan when prices are expected to slide due to better supply as heavy rains in Malaysia and southern Thailand subside, traders said. Traders and analysts expect a rapid rise in demand in Jan, when Chinese tyre manufacturers start building up rubber stocks so they can keep production going during the week-long Lunar New Year holiday that starts on Feb 6. Chinese buyers are looking for Jan and Feb cargoes in the international market, but have only bought small lots due to high prices, traders said. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
28-Dec-2007 00:35
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Rubber futures on TOCOM generally closed lower Thu, losing the early gains to renewed selling toward the close of the session. The benchmark, most distant Jun '08 contract settled at 310.2 yen per kg, down 0.5 yen from Wed, after hitting a new lifetime high of 313.3 yen. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
27-Dec-2007 00:46
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Rubber futures on TOCOM gained further ground Wed with the most active contract climbing to a new lifetime high. The benchmark, most distant Jun '08 contract finished at 310.7 yen per kg, up 1.8 yen from Tue, after rising to a high of 311.4 yen in late trading. GMG is a buy at current price. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
26-Dec-2007 11:36
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Tokyo rubber futures jumped more than 2% on Tue, hitting the highest level in more than 6 weeks as weaker yen spurred buying. The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for Jun delivery ended at 308.9 yen per kg, up 6.9 yen from Friday close. The Tokyo market touched a high of 309.8 yen a kg, the highest for any benchmark since Nov 9. A Reuters poll released on Fri showed the Tokyo market was expected to remain firm until the end of this year on Chinese buying, concerns about falling supply and a bullish technical trend, but to dip a little in Jan. The benchmark TOCOM contract was forecast to rise 9.5% to 300 yen by the end of Dec from 273.9 yen at the end of Nov, according to the median forecast of 10 analysts and dealers polled by Reuters. But, some pessimistic dealers expected TOCOM prices to face a correction before rising to this year's high of 312.2 yen set on Nov 7. "There might be a round of profit-taking somewhere around 300-312 yen," one dealer said. In the physical market, rubber prices rose in line with TOCOM. But physical trade was likely to remain sluggish this week with most buyers off for the Christmas and New Year holidays, traders said. Rain had stopped and floods receded in Thailand's far south, but the price of USS3, the raw material for export-grade rubber sheet, remained high due to TOCOM, traders said. However, the price of USS was expected to fall in Jan as supply should get back to normal, traders said. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
24-Dec-2007 21:27
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Rubber futures on TOCOM generally turned lower on selling to lock in profits Fri. The most active May '08 contract settled at 298.6 yen per kg, down 1.4 yen from Thu. The new June '08 contract closed at 302 yen, slightly down from its debut price of 302.7 yen. | ||||
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
22-Dec-2007 20:50
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Rubber futures on TOCOM generally turned lower on selling to lock in profits Fri. The most active May '08 contract settled at 298.6 yen per kg, down 1.4 yen from Thu. The new Jun '08 contract closed at 302 yen, slightly down from its debut price of 302.7 yen. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
20-Dec-2007 19:02
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Rubber futures on TOCOM closed moderately higher Thu, regaining strength on late buying. The benchmark, most distant May '08 contract settled at 300 yen sharp per kg, up 0.8 yen from Wed, after pushing above the 300-yen barrier at the opening. The contract rose to a new lifetime high of 300.9 yen shortly after the opening. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
19-Dec-2007 22:53
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Tokyo rubber futures rebounded to a new 5-week high on Wed, but a lack of fresh incentives meant trade was thin and the market short of momentum to push towards the 300 yen level. The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for May delivery rose 5.0 yen to end at 299.2 yen per kg. The benchmark, which rose to a 5-week high of 299.5 yen, has been moving between 290-300 yen for the past week. "Although the yen is weak and oil prices stayed above US$90 a barrel, I'm afraid that TOCOM could not break above the key 300 yen level today as the volume was very low," a dealer said. In the physical market, rubber prices were quoted mostly higher, backed by higher TOCOM prices and limited supply in producing countries. Trading was thin with most buyers, including China on the sidelines, waiting for prices to drop and producers reluctant to cut them, traders said. The Thai Meteorological Department said more rain was set to hit Thailand's far south, raising concerns about falling supply over the next few weeks. Indonesia and Malaysia were also hit by rain and floods, resulting in limited supply, traders said. |
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