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bsiong
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06-Jan-2012 00:55
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Last Updated :  05 January 2012 at 22:05 IST Gold will soon target $2400/oz: Citi Bank  NEW YORK (Commodity Online):  Gold  prices will target $2400/oz in a snap back rally as the current sell-off is overdone, says Citi Bank analyst Tim Fitzpatrick. He however cautions that prices could fall to $1550 before resuming its upside move. " Unless and until we see a weekly close below $1,535, we believe the uptrend in Gold has resumed and a move to $2,400 throughout the course of this year is on the card”, he states in a research report. Continuing weakness in the global economy and tensions in Iran, with a potential war in the Middle East brimming, could create a sustained momentum in  Gold  prices. Earlier, Bridgewater also echoed a bullish sentiment in gold for 2012 by saying that they are positioned long gold for the year. Bridgewater is the largest Hedge Fund in the world with assets worth $125 billion. |
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bsiong
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06-Jan-2012 00:52
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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bsiong
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05-Jan-2012 23:58
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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bsiong
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05-Jan-2012 23:53
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Last Updated :  05 January 2012 at 19:05 IST Dow/Gold ratio suggest a mega bull rally in gold is coming    By Hubert Moolman For  Gold  to rise to levels significantly higher than the recent high of $1,920, a new impetus is needed. Without additional energy from such an impetus, gold could just trade sideways for a very long time, or even fall further.  See the chart below. There is only so much value in the world economy, and it is split between all the different instruments (like gold, silver, stocks bonds, etc.) where value resides. For gold (and silver) to rise significantly, relative to other instruments of value, value will have to be diverted away from those other competing instruments. The printing of more money does benefit gold, but it does not necessarily benefit gold more than other assets-such as commodities, for example. Historically gold has made its significant gains, relative to other assets (as well as nominally), not during inflation, but during deflation  (Note: I am using the terms inflation and deflation very loosely in this case). These significant gold rallies historically occur when value flees instruments such as stocks and certain commodities. Since the 1920s there have been three major gold rallies (1930s, 1970s and the current rally). Below is a Dow Jones Industrial Average chart (from stockcharts.com) from 1900 to today. I have indicated in the chart the periods where a gold rally occurred. During the 1930s there was one big rally (increase based on the real price of gold - data from minefund.com) from about 1931 to 1934. During the 1970s there were two rallies, and I have also indicated two rallies since 2001. All three major gold rallies came after a significant top in the Dow and the Dow/Gold ratio (1929, 1966 and 1999). A great portion of the 1930s and 1970s rallies occurred when the Dow was falling significantly. In fact, the biggest rise in the  Gold  price occurred when the Dow was falling or was trading closer to the bottom of its trading range during that period. The 1932 bottom in the Dow came during the 1930s gold rally indicated. Also, the top in the price of gold came when the Dow was trading closer to the 41.22 low in the Dow than to the 381.17 high. The 1974 bottom in the Dow came during the 1970s gold rally indicated. Also, the top in the first of the two gold rallies of the 1970s came at about the low in the Dow in 1974. From the above it is clear that the  Dow was weak and/or falling when gold had its best rallies. In other words, much value was diverted from the Dow and related instruments to gold during these periods. A weak and/or falling Dow (or what it represents) was an impetus for the massive increase in the gold price during these rallies. The current gold rally (since 2001) has mostly been during the time when the Dow has also been rising, with the exception of a short period in both 2002 and the end of 2008 to Feb 2009. The best of the current gold rally, since 2001, has been during a time when the Dow was rising as well. Therefore, based on the evidence from the 1930s and 1970s gold rallies,  I believe the current gold rally has not yet had its best period - it is still to come. My current fundamental and fractal analysis of the Dow and gold supports this view. The Dow is currently trading close to its all-time high, and it is my opinion that  gold will step into the next phase of this bull market when the Dow starts to fall. A falling Dow, with weak economic conditions, will be the impetus for the next massive rally in gold, just like it was in previous bull markets. A falling and/or weak Dow will in some way represent the diverting of value from stocks to gold. |
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bsiong
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05-Jan-2012 23:48
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Last Updated :  05 January 2012 at 14:05 IST World Gold Council: Gold will beat 2011 returns, weak Rupee may affect Indian demandNEW YORK (Commodity Online):  Gold  will not only give positive returns in 2012, it will actually perform better than its 2011 gains, says Marcus Grubb, Managing Director of Investment Research at the World Gold Council (WGC). Speaking in a Bloomberg interview, Marcus said that central bank purchases of gold are more stronger than ever while pointing out that major buying is coming from the Far East nations and Latin America – regions who have low reserves in gold and are looking to diversify from the US Dollar and the Euro so as to balance their reserves. Marcus goes on to add that India accounted for nearly 1000 tonnes of the 4000 tonne global  Gold  market and the weakness of the rupee may have affected Indian imports since gold became more expensive. Going into 2012, gold will have to face this rising risk. Earlier, it was reported that the WGC is planning to tie up with 5 more micro-finance institutions by March in a bid to push gold-linked micro finance scheme deeper. |
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bsiong
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05-Jan-2012 23:44
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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January 5, 2012 |
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bsiong
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05-Jan-2012 23:42
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Gold drops on weak euro, upbeat U.S. job data    * Euro falls to 15-month low vs dollar * US job data shows better-than-expected private hiring * Gold demand seen supported ahead of Lunar New Year By Harpreet Bhal LONDON, Jan 5 (Reuters) - Gold slipped on Thursday, hit by a sharp fall in the euro on escalating concerns about the European debt crisis and by upbeat U.S. labour market data that indicated an improving economic outlook. Spot gold slipped 0.6 percent to $1,601.20 an ounce by 1449 GMT from $1,610.60 late in New York on Wednesday, giving up gains from earlier in the session when the precious metal hit a two-week intraday high. U.S. gold slipped 0.6 percent to $1,603.20 an ounce. " It is a risk on/risk off trade for gold. I expect gold to experience a volatile period throughout the first quarter, and this relates to the euro zone crisis," said Peter Fertig, consultant at Quantitative Commodity Research. The euro dropped to a 15-month low against the dollar on concerns about the growing debt crisis in Europe and extended losses after better-than-expected U.S. data helped support the dollar. A strong dollar makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies. In the latest signs of an improving labour market, U.S. private employers added a better-than-expected 325,000 jobs in December, while new U.S. claims for unemployment benefits fell by 15,000 last week. " In the very near term, it will be important whether gold can close the week above $1,600. If the market succeeds, it would be a good harbinger for trading over the next few weeks," Credit Suisse said in a note. The market is set to focus on debt sales from Spain and Italy next week, following France's bond auction on Thursday, to gauge the appetite for peripheral euro zone debt in the wake of the region's growing crisis. French borrowing costs rose slightly when the euro zone's second-largest economy sold debt for the first time this year, but demand was solid despite concerns the country could lose its AAA credit rating. LUNAR NEW YEAR Gold demand usually picks up ahead of the Lunar New Year, which falls on Jan. 23 this year, in China and elsewhere in Asia, traders said. " We are seeing Chinese banks on the bid ahead of the Chinese New Year," a Singapore-based trader said. Physical dealers in Hong Kong reported purchases from funds, albeit in small volumes, and supply is likely to improve next week as refineries resume operations after the New Year break. Exchange-traded funds, however, have yet to see a pick-up in investment interest. Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, remained unchanged at 1,254.57 tonnes for the seventh session. GOL/ETF Silver fell by 1 percent to $$28.78 an ounce, while platinum slipped 0.9 percent to $1,403.92 an ounce. Palladium eased 0.9 percent to $640.22 an ounce. " As gold becomes more expensive, the much-regarded gold/silver ratio has risen to 55. Although silver has gained considerable ground in recent days in gold's slipstream, there has been a clear upwards trend in the gold/silver ratio for some months now," Commerzbank analysts said in a note. (Additional reporting by Rujun Shen in Singapore editing by Jane Baird)     |
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bsiong
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05-Jan-2012 23:40
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Gold up on seasonal China buying Iran eyed* Escalation of Iran tensions could prompt safe-haven demand * Spot gold may end rebound below $1,629 - technicals * Coming up: French bond auction 0950 GMT By Rujun Shen SINGAPORE, Jan 5 (Reuters) - Gold was on course for a fifth straight session of gains on Thursday as growing anxiety on Iran boosted its safe-haven appeal and rising seasonal demand in China buoyed sentiment. Gold rose with oil in the previous session, breaking its lockstep with the euro over the past few months, after the European Union reached a preliminary agreement to ban imports of Iranian oil. An escalation of tensions could drive investors to seek safety in bullion, even though in the past few months gold has largely moved in tandem with riskier assets after recent market turmoil tarnished its safe-haven appeal. " If we don't have any shock out of Iran or any surprise on data, gold is likely to stay in consolidation with a near-term bottom at $1,550," said Hou Xinqiang, an analyst at Jinrui Futures in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen. Analysts said the 200-day moving average, at $1,631.6, will be a key technical resistance for gold, and a move near that level could fuel selling. Spot gold gained 0.9 percent to $1,624.30 an ounce by 0801 GMT. Earlier, it hit an intra-day high of $1,624.66, its highest since Dec. 21. U.S. gold rose 0.8 percent to $1,626. Technical analysis suggested spot gold could end the rebound below $1,629 an ounce, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao. Gold demand usually picks up ahead of the Lunar New Year, which falls on Jan. 23 this year, in China and elsewhere in Asia, traders said. Shanghai gold rose 1 percent to 331.50 yuan a gram, or about $1,636 an ounce, at a premium of an unusually high $12 on spot prices. " We are seeing Chinese banks on the bid ahead of the Chinese New Year," said a Singapore-based trader. Worries about the euro zone debt crisis linger, with markets eyeing a French bond sales later in the day after Germany's bond auction on Wednesday fared better than November. In contrast to the gloomy outlook on the euro zone economy reinforced by latest private sector data, U.S. data continued to show signs of solid growth in the fourth quarter. Investors will be watching the ADP National Employment report later today, a precursor to the key non-farm payroll data on Friday, to seek evidence of improvement in the labour market. Physical dealers in Hong Kong reported purchases from funds, albeit in small volumes, and supply is likely to improve next week as refineries resume operations after the new year break. Exchange-traded funds, however, have yet to see investment interest picking up. Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, remained unchanged at 1,254.57 tonnes for the seventh session.   |
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bsiong
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05-Jan-2012 00:57
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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January 4, 2012 |
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bsiong
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05-Jan-2012 00:55
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Gold jumps after preliminary EU deal on Iran oil ban
* Set for largest two-day rally since October * Fed forecasts could support gold in future By  Amanda Cooper LONDON, Jan 4 (Reuters) - Gold was set for its strongest two-day rally in 2-1/2 months on Wednesday after an agreement in principle among European leaders to ban Iranian oil imports boosted the crude price and catapulted bullion to two-week highs. European Union governments reached a preliminary agreement to ban imports of Iranian crude but have yet to decide when such an embargo would be put in place, EU diplomats said on Wednesday. Brent crude  futures  rose by more than $1 a barrel above $113 in response to the news, prompting a sharp bounce in the gold price, which can often rise in response to geopolitical uncertainty. Spot gold was last up 0.4 percent on the day at $1,607.89 an ounce by 1527 GMT, having risen by as much as 0.7 percent to a session high of $1,614.10, while most-active COMEX February gold futures were up 0.6 percent at $1,609.30. " The market is tense. It is the beginning of the year, there isn't any major positioning as such in the market and everyone is trying to figure out, heads or tails, whether or not to go in and any sort of news like that triggers buying," said Afshin Nabavi, head of trading at MKS Finance. " People are itching to buy but don't know whether to buy here ... we have non-farm payrolls coming out on Friday, so ahead of that, a lot of people are going to be cautious," he said. The decline in the gold price towards the end of 2011 appears to have lured some buyers out of the woodwork following a fairly lacklustre previous few weeks, due in large part to the weakness in the Indian rupee against the dollar, which suppressed demand in the world's largest consumer of gold. Friday's monthy non-farm payrolls report is expected to show 150,000 jobs were added in December, following November's 120,000 increase. CHINESE DEMAND The Shanghai Gold Exchange registered record-high trading volumes on Wednesday, and local dealers in Singapore said they expected demand to pick up next week ahead of the Chinese New Year. " Our physical sales to India yesterday were about double average levels," wrote UBS analyst Edel Tully. " The key factor in this market right now is not purely the gold price, but stabilisation in the rupee.  China  returned to the market today, and based on turnover on the SGE they're liking gold." The dollar hit one-week highs against the Swiss franc and session highs against the euro, while Treasury prices fell to intraday lows. The Federal Reserve's decision on Tuesday to publish the longer-term forecasts of its policymakers could push back expectations of when U.S. benchmark rates will rise, creating a potential future boost for gold. Gold tends to benefit from an environment of low interest rates because the opportunity cost of holding it - the premium investors forfeit by not holding yield or dividend-bearing stocks or bonds - declines. In the Middle East, tension has increased between  Iran  and the West over the country's nuclear programme, which Washington and its allies say is a cover to build bombs. Iran has been hit by foreign sanctions, including four rounds of U.N. sanctions over its refusal to halt its sensitive nuclear work as demanded by the U.N. Security Council. Iran threatened this week to choke off crude shipments through the strategic Strait of Hormuz in retaliation against tougher sanctions from the West over its nuclear programme. " With 40 percent of the world's internationally traded oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz, even a low probability of the strait's closure - Iran threatened to do this last month if it were subject to further sanctions - can have a material impact on oil and hence on gold prices," James Steel, analyst at HSBC, said. Silver fell by 1.2 percent on the day to $29.29 an ounce, pushing the number of ounces of the metal needed to buy an ounce of gold up for the first time since Friday. The gold/silver ratio is now at 54.91, having fallen from last December's 14-month high of 57.4, when gold's outperformance against silver reached its strongest since October 2010. Platinum was last down 0.1 percent at $1,422.99 an ounce, while palladium eased 0.8 percent to $653.97 an ounce. |
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bsiong
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05-Jan-2012 00:54
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Gold steady after rally Iran tensions support  * Asia's physical market lukewarm supply to improve next week * Spot gold targets $1,629 - technicals * Coming up: U.S. factory orders, Nov 1500 GMT By Rujun Shen SINGAPORE, Jan 4 (Reuters) - Spot gold traded steady on Wednesday, retaining most of the previous session's strong gains on encouraging economic data from the United States and Europe, and rising concerns on Iran also helped support sentiment. Bullion began the year by recouping all of last week's losses to post its largest daily rise since Oct. 25 and analysts say gold may benefit from its safe haven appeal despite worries about the euro zone debt crisis. " Gold may not be a safe haven in financial turmoil, but it does seem to function as a safe haven against real-world geopolitical risks," said Nick Trevethan, Senior Commodity Strategist at ANZ. Spot gold edged down 0.2 percent to $1,599.59 an ounce by 0654 GMT, after rising 2.4 percent in the previous session. U.S. gold was little changed at $1,601.40. Technical analysis suggested spot gold could rise to $1,629 during the day, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao. Gold has moved in line with the euro which edged lower after rallying on Tuesday together with commodities and equities, buoyed by stronger-than-expected U.S. manufacturing data and two-decade-low unemployment in Germany. Shanghai spot deferred gold contract opened up 2.6 percent at 327.85 yuan a gram ($1,621 an ounce) as the market resumed trading after the New Year's Day holiday. Prices later eased to 326.75 yuan. Asia's bullion market remained lukewarm, while physical supply remained tight as refineries are just restarting operations after the holidays. " Physical supply is expected to improve next week," said a Singapore-based dealer, adding that Asian buyers will be searching for kilo bars to meet demand ahead of the Lunar New Year. Premiums on gold bars in Singapore were quoted in the range of $1.30 to $2 an ounce above spot prices, dealers said. Despite a 10-percent drop in gold prices in December, spot gold still scored a 10-percent rally in 2011, its 11th straight year of growth, with help from surging investment demand from individuals and rising central bank purchases. In the first 11 months of 2011, central banks around the world bought nearly 350 tonnes of gold, with Turkey making its largest single increase to its reserves on record in November, according to data from the International Monetary Fund. Spot silver fell 1 percent to $29.33 an ounce, retreating from a 6.4-percent rally in the previous session, its biggest one-day rise in more than three years.     |
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bsiong
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04-Jan-2012 13:19
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Last Updated : 04 January 2012 at 10:40 IST
'Silver to hit $50 sooner than you think'By Avi Gilburt I noted that if Silver broke below the recent 29.90 support level in the futures, then the most likely bottom for silver would be the $26 region, with the potential to drop even as low as the 22.50 region. So, let’s see if that analysis is still applicable at this time. USD The U.S. Dollar has had an extensive rally since I wrote back in June of 2011 that we were nearing a significant bottom in the USD. However, I do not consider this second leg up in the dollar as the start of the major rally which I think will take the USD up to the 90 region in 2012 / 2013. Rather, I believe that the USD is at a cyclical turning point, and will experience a potentially sharp pullback, which may take us through the 1st quarter of 2012. However, there could still be one final push up in the USD index before that correction begins. The upcoming pullback will most probably relieve some of the downside pressure on the precious metals, which will allow silver to enter into a parabolic rally into the 1st quarter of 2012. Cyclical turning point I still believe that silver is entering a cyclical turning point in which it should begin a significant, but final, rally. The next few months are traditionally quite bullish for the metals. Update of prior analysis – Forecast for Silver In August 2011, I suggested that silver was about to experience another dramatic decline. I provided downside targets of the $26.50-$26.80 region-- and, if broken-- suggested that Silver can drop to the $22.50 region, which should provide the needed support. In my opinion, silver is about to complete its corrective decline and should maintain support within the $26 region in the futures. However, there could still be some weakness in the price over the coming days. Scaling into silver on its next pullback will probably prove to be a smart move. There is still the outside possibility that silver can spike down as low as the $22.50 region, but that will be a very short lived visit to that region, if at all, and would represent an incredible buying opportunity for those smart enough to buy that drop. As I also explained in my last articles, if we found support within the cited region, then you would want to consider buying silver for a run to at least the $50 level. Furthermore, based upon my analysis, I believe that the speed with which we will run up to the $50 region will surprise even the staunchest of precious metal investors. Although we will most likely exceed the $50 region, as we move into this potentially parabolic rally we will be able to pin down the target top better, in order to exit our trade when we hit what I expect to be a multi-year top. The ensuing correction may make the current correction look like child’s play. Source: Seeking Alpha   |
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bsiong
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04-Jan-2012 09:46
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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      STI    |
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bsiong
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04-Jan-2012 09:45
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Tuesday, January 3rd 05:58 PM IST India gold gains as demand returnsGold prices went up by nearly 32% as opposed to just 11% in the global markets as a debilitating Indian rupee helped push the prices higher, particularly in the last couple of months of the year. NEW DELHI (BullionStreet) :  Gold prices in India, world's largest consumer, climbed after stockists and jewellery shops began stockpiling for the upcoming marriage season. Gold prices went up by nearly 32% as opposed to just 11% in the global markets as a debilitating Indian rupee helped push the prices higher, particularly in the last couple of months of the year. Gold per ten grams on the MCX.country's leading commodity exchannge, rose as high as Rs 27,900 while silver per kig hit Rs 51,600. Analysts also attributed firm global trends, aided by geo-political tensions in West Asia after Iran tested long range missiles and enhanced nuke ambitions, for the gains in yellow metal. A depreciating local currency, rupee, continued to keep prices steady in the local market, analysts added. In Asian trade, gold prices climbed as high as $1588 an ounce. In December, gold demand took a hit as buying declined during year-end holidays and the month is considered inauspicious for purchases, dealers said. Gold imports by India, the world's top consumer, plunged 56% to 125 tonnes in the fourth quarter, cutting full-year imports by 8.4% as record high prices and high interest rates curbed demand.     |
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bsiong
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04-Jan-2012 09:43
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Last Updated :  03 January 2012 at 20:30 IST Could gold repeat another double digit rise in 2012?By Debbie Carlson The December price break for gold came as several events aligned. First, the market was never able to retest its all-time nominal high in August of $1,923.70 an ounce. Second, gold was one of the few star performers this year and when equity and other markets soured, money managers needed to raise cash to meet margin calls and shore up positions elsewhere. Third, with investors spooked by the continued inability for eurozone leaders to convincingly shore up their union, these investors sought safety in the most liquid vehicle available – cash – again pulling profits from gold. Gold might be down about 16% from the August highs, but it’s still up roughly 14% from the 2010 settlement of $1,421.40, basis the nearby futures, which still makes it one of the best performers this year. The yellow metal may be in a consolidation mode for the time being, resting and building a base to rally again, just like that prizefighter whose corner man keeps him in shape to go the distance. Market watchers said the structural strength for gold remains intact, with most Western nations’ global interest rate policies falling or near zero, which makes the opportunity cost of holding gold negligible. The sovereign debt crisis in Europe still makes people nervous about holding fiat currencies. With the amount of liquidity floating around from quantitative easing programs from central banks like the Federal Reserve, fears that when the global economy starts to show decent growth again it will be difficult to rein in that stimulus. Mark Leibovit, editor the VRTrader newsletter, said he remains overall bullish, but concedes the washout gold experienced in early December has done damage to technical charts. “We might hit bottom in a month or so. How far it might go depends on how the technicals unfold. Short-term it’s held the September lows of $1,531. But we have to see it perform in both time and price to confirm it. What might it take do so? We’d need to see the equity market improve, Europe improve, and maybe a QE3,” he said, referring to a possible third quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve. Leibovit said it’s possible that gold prices could have further room to fall, especially if a scenario unfolds like what happened following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. Price were already in a downdraft prior to the Lehman news, but a month later gold fell as far as $681, basis a front-month continuation futures chart. This could happen if gold prices take out the $1,531 level, he said. In 2008 there was a 34% correction for gold. Based on that calculation, prices could drop to $1,270, Leibovit said. Gold rebounded after the trip to sub-$700, but he pointed out that it still took about six months to confirm the bottom. Gold is plagued by competing influences. The EU woes supports gold, but investors who seek liquidity pressure the metal, he said. Could gold repeat another double digit rise in 2012? The forecast for gold to return to seeing a “two” as the front number in 2012 is shared by several investment banks. Morgan Stanley, TD Securities, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch and SEB Merchant Banking are among some of the banks who see gold either averaging above $2,000 or at least trading to that level at some time during next year. Based on gold prices around $1,600, a move to $2,000 would be about a 23% rise. Leibovit said he sees inflation coming down the road, the question is, “when does it kick in?” Gold could continue to weaken into January, but he said gold investors need to consider a longer term view than six months or even a year. They should be taking at least a three to five year perspective. Tom Winmill, portfolio manager of the Midas Fund, said there’s a good chance for gold to see another strong year. “It’s very possible that it can be very strong year after year after year. We think the key component to gold is that it’s denominated in dollars. How high it can go will be dependent on how much money is created. With the two QEs, $2.2 trillion was created. There will be more money created down the road…. We (the U.S.) will be adding more money because we are borrowing. The borrowing represents the future creation of new money,” he said. |
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bsiong
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04-Jan-2012 09:36
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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  Gold extends gains on data, U.S. easing hopes  SINGAPORE, Jan 4 (Reuters) - Gold edged higher on Wednesday, extending a 2.4-percent rise in the previous session on encouraging economic data from the United States and Europe, as well as expectations of further monetary easing in the United States. FUNDAMENTALS * Spot gold inched up 0.2 percent to $1,606.09 an ounce by 0015 GMT, after posting its biggest daily gain in more than two months. * U.S. gold gained nearly half a percent to $1,607.80. * Spot silver was little changed at $29.62, retaining a 6.4-percent rally in the previous session -- its strongest one-day rise in more than three years. * Upbeat economic data from the United States and Germany encouraged risk appetite, fuelling rallies in stocks, commodities and the euro. * Hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve may further ease its monetary policy further boosted market sentiment. * Central banks bought nearly 350 tonnes of gold in the first 11 months of 2011, with Turkey making its largest single increase to its reserves on record in November, according to data from the International Monetary Fund. MARKET NEWS * Hoping for something better than 2011's flat stock market, U.S. investors pushed shares higher on Tuesday to begin the new year, though questions remain about whether a rally can be sustained. * The euro held on to overnight gains in Asia on Wednesday, having posted its biggest one-day rally in nearly two months as investors cut bearish positions in the common currency after upbeat data bolstered risk appetite. |
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bsiong
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04-Jan-2012 09:34
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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January 3, 2012 |
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bsiong
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03-Jan-2012 21:43
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Gold rises in line with euro recovery   
* Euro correlation at two-year high * Coming up: U.S. Dec ISM manufacturing By  Amanda Cooper LONDON, Jan 3 (Reuters) - Gold rallied on Tuesday, boosted by a rise in the euro against the dollar after the price hit its lowest in nearly six months last week in a flurry of year-end speculative selling. Mounting tensions between  Iran  and the United States over a possible disruption to oil supply boosted crude oil futures but did little to elicit any safe-haven buying of gold, which remains tightly tethered to the ebb and flow of the euro. Gold's correlation with the euro/dollar exchange rate is at its most positive in nearly two years, meaning the bullion price is more likely to move in lockstep with the euro than at any other time since January 2010. German Bund  futures  slipped but the debt crisis was expected to limit falls as refinancing pressure grows on the bloc's lower-rated sovereigns, while the euro edged higher after better-than-expected Chinese data boosted riskier assets. Speculators placed their heaviest bets ever against the single European currency last week, in light of the lack of a lasting solution to the  euro zone  debt crisis and the knock-on effect on the regional economy. Spot gold was last up 1.7 percent at $1,591.84 an ounce by 1300 GMT, set for its largest one-day rise since mid-December. " Gold didn't really react to the safe-haven issue in Iran that much. Oil has, obviously, but you haven't really seen that safe-haven, geopolitical risk investor come in at all really so far," RBS commodities analyst Nikos Kavalis said. " I would say it all really depends on the euro for the time being. This is really where gold takes its cue from." Military exercises in the Mideast Gulf by Iran and the movement of U.S. naval vessels in the area have raised fears of a confrontation between Tehran and Washington that could cut off oil exports from the region. Iran has said it could shut the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40 percent of world oil is shipped, if sanctions were to be imposed on its crude exports.   EURO FOCUS Meanwhile, in Europe, France's Nicolas Sarkozy will meet German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin on Jan. 9 for talks that are likely to centre on new rules to enforce budget discipline across the European Union. The two leaders are anxious to flesh out a plan agreed at a December summit by all EU members except Britain for a new treaty to forge closer fiscal integration, as Europe battles to stem a sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone. The gold price rose by a net 10.2 percent in 2011, but the resulting strength of the U.S. dollar from the euro zone debt crisis whittled this increase down from a gain of as much as 33 percent, when gold hit a record $1,920.30 in early September. A strong dollar encourages non-U.S. gold holders to sell their bullion holdings in order to make a profit when buying their own  currencies  more cheaply. The euro could rebound in the near-term despite the problems affecting continental Europe, as investors are overly bearish on the currency, investor Jim Rogers said on Tuesday. Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in the 1970s and is a well-known commodities bull, also said he remains bullish on commodities in general but expects gold will drop further given the run-up over the last 10 years. " In my view, gold could go to $1,200-$1,300 (an ounce)... Gold has been up 11 years in a row which is extremely unusual in any financial asset so gold is overdue for a correction," he told Reuters Insider in Singapore where he now resides. Another short-term risk to the gold price in early January is the rebalancing of commodity indices, which may result in fund investors needing to hold less gold in their portfolios. " Short-term there is the risk of further pressure as fund repositioning and Index re-balancing commences, however, improved physical interest is likely to provide good support," Fastmarkets analysts wrote in a note. In other precious metals, silver rose 3.4 percent to $28.75 an ounce, while platinum rose 0.6 percent to $1,402.24 an ounce and palladium rose 0.9 percent to $656.50. (Editing by  James Jukwey) |
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03-Jan-2012 21:40
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Last Updated :  03 January 2012 at 19:05 IST The biggest hedge fund is long gold in 2012, Jim Rogers says gold headed to $1200/oz    NEW YORK (Commodity Online):  Bridgewater, the biggest hedge fund in the world with $125 billion in investments, islong  Gold  for 2012. The fund is also positioned for  stronger emerging market currencies in Asia  and low yields in high quality government bond markets. In an interview with Wall Street Journal, Co-chief investment officer Robert Prince paints a bleak economic future. " We're in a secular de-leveraging that will probably take 15 to 20 years to work through and we're just four years in." The US was “in a leveraging-up period for 60 years, from the early 1950s to 2008” and " when it tipped over, it set about a self-reinforcing process on the way down." Barclays Capital and Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) also puts  Gold  price to average $2000/oz in 2012 with BofAML noting that the recent correction “was not necessarily driven by a broad-based reassessment of fundamentals." Legendary investor Jim Rogers is bullish for gold over the long-term but in the short-term, he prefers to be bearish. " In my view, gold could go to $1,200-$1,300 (an ounce)... Gold has been up 11 years in a row which is extremely unusual in any financial asset, so gold is overdue for a correction”, Rogers was quoted by Reuters. |
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03-Jan-2012 18:17
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Gold, silver rally as new year rekindles risk appetite  * Risk appetite rises on new year, China PMI * Spot gold may rise to $1,629/oz - technicals * Coming up: U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, Dec 1500 GMT By Rujun Shen SINGAPORE, Jan 3 (Reuters) - Gold rallied more than 1 percent and silver jumped over 2 percent on Tuesday as investors returned in the new year with a renewed appetite for riskier assets such as commodities, although global economic worries still weighed on sentiment. Better-than-expected manufacturing data from China fuelled interest among investors who had moved to the sidelines because of year-end credit tightness. A weaker dollar also helped fuel gains in commodities. " Everyone is a bit more optimistic at the beginning of the year," said Ong Yi Ling, an analyst at Phillip Futures. But Ong cautioned that the euphoria may not last long for gold as market sentiment remains fickle due to the shaky global economic outlook. Gold could drop below $1,500 in the first quarter of 2012 and is unlikely to test its record high hit last September until later 2012, a Reuters poll showed. Spot gold rose as much as 1.5 percent to $1,589.65 an ounce and eased slightly to $1,588.29 by 0724 GMT, rebounding from a 10-percent loss in December. The most-active U.S. gold futures contract rallied 1.5 percent to $1,589.50. Technical analysis suggested spot gold could rise towards $1,629 an ounce during the day, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao. Iran's progress in its nuclear pursuit has gripped the oil market and could potentially support safe haven demand in gold. But for now, gold's move hinges on macroeconomic conditions and changes in risk appetite. Investors await a raft of U.S. economic data this week, including ISM Manufacturing PMI later in the day, factory orders on Wednesday and non-farm payroll data on Friday, after recent data showed that the world's top economy was recovering. SILVER LEADS GAINS IN PRECIOUS METALS Cash silver gained 2.2 percent to $28.41, leading the rally in the precious metals complex. U.S. silver rose 1.8 percent to $28.41. The metal, with extensive industrial applications, lost nearly 10 percent in 2011 as worries about the global economy weakened prospects of industrial metals. " Silver is one of the more appealling trades of the new year, after a lot of positions have been emptied out," said a Singapore-based trader. " Now the turn of the year has happened and we will probably see silver back on radar screens for some accounts, especially those with healthy tolerance for risk." Managed money cut net length on U.S. silver futures and options to 6,200 lots in the week ended Dec. 27, its lowest in more than three years, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.   |
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