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bsiong
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01-Feb-2012 23:33
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Gold keeps up rally after best January in 32 years
* Strongest January in over 30 years means correction likely * Coming up: U.S. January ISM 1500 GMT LONDON, Feb 1 (Reuters) - Gold rose for a second day on Wednesday as the euro rebounded following upbeat German economic data, building on gains in January that marked the metal's strongest starting month in 32 years. Spot gold was up 0.4 percent at $1,744.66 an ounce at 1317 GMT, on course for a fifth straight week of gains. It rose 11 percent in January, the largest one-month gain since August 2011 and the largest for the month of January since 1980, thanks to a combination of the weakness in the dollar from a Federal Reserve commitment to keep U.S. rates near zero, investor and consumer demand and central bank purchases. Evidence of Germany's economic health helped boost the euro, and gold by extension. The single European currency was expected to remain under pressure from concerns about Greece, however, even after its finance minister said talks with private creditors on a swap deal vital to avoid a chaotic default, were " one formal step away" . Analysts largely expect gold to rally this year, although many say that a pull-back in the near term looks likely. " Buyers have returned to the euro, which is helping the situation in gold. It had a bit of lacklustre profit-taking yesterday but didn't break anything important on the downside, which helped confirm that being long is back in vogue," Ole Hansen, senior manager at Saxo Bank, said. " The last two weeks have done a heck of a lot to confidence, and we've seen that attempted corrections have been short-lived, so the mood has definitely changed, but overall, we are overbought quite significantly ... so there will be some kind of consolidation." The gold price has risen by nearly 15 percent since hitting six-month lows in late December. Anecdotal evidence of robust Chinese demand over the Lunar New Year holiday last week, together with figures on holdings of the metal in exchange-traded funds and U.S. futures, have added to the perception that the investor mood towards gold has become more positive following December's sharp drop.
EURO ZONE SUPPORT " Concerns about Greece and Portugal are keeping demand for gold high and supporting the price. Yesterday gold defied the downward trend in commodity prices and a firmer U.S. dollar, increasing to an eight-week high of $1,748 per troy ounce," Commerzbank analysts said in a note. " There has still been no breakthrough in negotiations (on Greek debt) ... The sovereign debt crisis will thus continue to preoccupy the markets for some considerable time yet and should support the gold price," they said. Gold priced in euros was trading at its highest in nearly six months, having also staged its biggest monthly rise in January since August, with a gain of 10 percent. Holdings of metal in ETFs rose by over 650,000 ounces in January, marking the first month of net inflows in two months. December's outflows of nearly 1 million ounces coincided with the second-largest monthly drop in the gold price since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in late 2008. Later in the day, U.S. data on nationwide manufacturing is due. The survey from the Institute for Supply Management is expected to show factory activity in the world's largest economy expanded at its fastest pace in January since June last year. Silver outpaced the rest of the precious metals complex, rising nearly 2 percent on the day to $33.78 an ounce. The silver price rose by nearly 20 percent last month, in its largest monthly rally in nine months. Platinum and palladium both rallied in line with firmness across the industrial commodities complex as Brent crude oil futures gained nearly 1 percent on the day to around $112 a barrel and London Metal Exchange copper rose 0.6 percent to $8,370.5 a tonne. An uptick in Chinese factory activity in January offered further support to raw materials prices. |
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bsiong
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01-Feb-2012 23:26
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Wednesday, February 1st 04:54 PM IST Malaysia gold sector thriving : Habib JewelsMalaysia's gold market remained unaffected by global economic slow down but improved overall, according to Habib Jewels, one of Malaysia's prominent jeweller. KUALA LUMPUR(BullionStreet) : Malaysia's gold market remained unaffected by global economic slow down but improved overall, according to Habib Jewels, one of Malaysia's prominent jeweller. Gold business in Malaysia is thriving as people are still buying jewellery and gemstones for investment and personal use, said Meer Sadik Habib,MD of Habib Jewels. He said his company's jewellery sales are on the rise despite the spiralling gold price. To provide investment guarantee for gold items to its customers, Meer Sadik said Habib Jewels, a household name in Malaysia's gold business, operated Al Rahnu Islamic pawnshops which accept pawning of jewellery and gemstones. He said Habib Jewels' sales touched about RM300 million last year and " we are confident to perform even better this year." " We are aiming to boost our sales by 10 to 20 per cent this year due to growing demand for jewellery and gemstones. " The demand is high as our jewellery and gemstones have their unique features blend with traditional and modern designs," he said. To cope with the rising demand, Habib Jewels, a fully integrated jeweller involved in wholesaling, retailing, manufacturing, micro-financing (pawnbroking) and franchising, will invest about RM4 million to open two new branches in Perak and Pahang this year, he said. Sadik said he has no plans as yet to open branches overseas as he intends to focus on the domestic market. " However, we are actively engaged in promoting our brands overseas," he said. On the heritage gallery, he said, the Habib Jewels Group, which started in Penang 50 years ago as a family-owned business, has invested about RM2 million to refurbish its old premises at Jalan Masjid Kapitan Keling. The gallery showcases a collection of more than 100 antique jewellery and germstones including more than 100-year-old gold items worn by Indian-Muslim women in Penang. |
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bsiong
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01-Feb-2012 23:24
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Last Updated : 01 February 2012 at 20:30 IST What made Gold break out?By Julian D. W. Phillips Fed's Announcement Last Week You're probably saying now that it was the announcement from the Fed that interest rates would be held at current levels for another year more, through to the end of 2014. The superficial assumption is that this means that the dollar will earn nothing, so risk assets should outperform dollar deposits. That's true, but a great deal more was implied in their statement (as we detailed in the latest issues of the Gold Forecaster & Silver Forecaster). The Fed pointed to long rates rising to above 4% over time, while inflation remained at 2% -and could fall further. Why? If long-term rates are going to rise while inflation is dropping and short-term rates are flat, it's more than likely that there will be a robust recovery. In those conditions it is more than likely that it is the dollar that will become suspect with dollar investors moving out of Treasuries. This could cause long-term rates to rise as they sell. The dollar would suffer in the process. What's of considerable importance is that a rise in long-term rates means that the Treasury markets will fall to reflect interest rate rises. Currently, long-term bonds are at very high prices, so a fall could prove particularly harmful to those markets as well as the broad economy -including housing at a time when that will hurt that struggling market even more. It is difficult not to see a sad picture for both the dollar and other facets of the developed world economies going forward, despite the noble efforts of the Fed. What Made Gold, Silver Rise Beyond the Announcement Investors who are aware that the U.S. gold market is not the hub of the gold market, must be asking why did the price jump in U.S. time? The sophisticated nature of the developed world market allows the U.S. trading markets to act like the waves on the sea shore and move prices quickly and dramatically. It takes the 24-hour market to smooth out the moves to reflect the true demand and supply picture. That's why London pulled back the Gold price on Monday this week. But the jump of $65 after the announcement reflected short covering and new long positions being established in those markets. The jump through $1,700 has been held in position and looks like staying there now. What's also frequently overlooked is that both Chinese and Indian demand is oblivious to the trials and tribulations of the U.S. dollar. The Chinese see Yuan prices, Yuan inflation and the excellent performance of the gold price over the last few years in the Yuan, which Asia now firmly believes will continue on into the future. They're investing in a safe, proven investment, which is doing what savings should do. Deposits at banks are not. Stock Exchanges are too volatile and take too much knowledge for the unsophisticated Asian investor. And why should they go to all that trouble when they don't have to. Gold is doing the job they want, so why look elsewhere? In the developed world where the Technical picture exerts such an influence, many investors are still sitting open-mouthed at the ease with which the gold price brushed aside resistance, which is now support. The Technical picture has become very positive. Of itself this will influence developed world investors contemplating precious metal. On the broad front, the developed world will not supplements global demand and selling will retreat. With demand and supply being as it is, this change of attitude could have a disproportionate effect. So we ask, " here will the gold price move to now?" |
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bsiong
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01-Feb-2012 23:22
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Last Updated : 01 February 2012 at 20:05 IST Gold and silver are underpriced, will gain massively in 2012After a tough year in 2011, there is definitely a good selection of underpriced junior resource stocks available for astute investors to focus on before the rest of the herd finally wakes up and smells the gold. In this exclusive interview withThe Gold Report,Matthew Zylstra, mining analyst at Northern Securities, reviews the gold, Silver and PGM markets and tells us why he believes that better times are ahead for junior miners in 2012, and which ones he particularly likes at current price levels. The Gold Report (TGR): When you last spoke with The Gold Report in early March of last year, gold was trading around $1,420/ounce (oz) and silver was around $36/oz. Silver peaked about $49/oz in late April and then gold hit around $1,900/oz in September. Now we're back up above $1,700/oz on gold and about $33/oz on silver. Where do you see these prices going this year, after it appears that they have likely bottomed out? Matthew Zylstra (MZ): We're long-term bulls on both metals. Gold has been correcting since September and it looks like it bottomed out around $1,500/oz. We believe the recent decline is a normal pullback in a longer-term uptrend where nothing has really changed to the outlook. We see a perfect environment for the metal—concerns over our currency debasement, negative real interest rates, geopolitical friction, etc. I expect gold will reclaim the 2011 highs and could reach $2,000/oz. For silver, the picture is less clear. Silver is, in part, an industrial metal accounting for around 50% of demand and less of a currency. Silver peaked at almost $50/oz in April 2011 and the price has been very volatile. We think the move is a correction, again, in a longer uptrend going back to 2003. I expect silver will trade around the mid-$30/oz range this year. We actually feel Platinum has a lot of potential. South Africa, Zimbabwe and Russia account for about 90% of platinum production and there's a scarcity of good platinum metals group (PMG) projects outside those countries. We expect increased investment demand and believe that supply disruptions, as well as resource nationalization concerns, will drive the price higher. We note that Sprott Asset Management has formed a physical platinum and Palladium trust, which could boost investment demand. TGR: So, what really happened to the platinum market? Historically, platinum traded at a 30–40% premium over gold. Does it have to do with industrial demand or what happened to cause it to trade below gold? MZ: The main industrial use for platinum/palladium is automotive catalysts. With fears of a global slowdown, their prices came off. But our view is that supply is not going to be able to meet the demand going forward. And, as you mentioned, platinum has historically traded at a significant premium to gold but the value is now only about 95% of the price of gold. TGR: Getting to the actual equities, the gold and silver stocks certainly didn't track the metals prices very well the last year. What's been the problem? MZ: Gold stocks have performed poorly compared to the metals. We believe this has to do with investors being leery about another period similar to what occurred in 2008 when credit markets froze. Exploration and development companies, in particular, are sensitive to what's going on in the capital markets since they require capital to continue exploration. Take, for example, Trade Winds Ventures Inc., which was acquired last year by Detour Gold Corp. (DGC:TSX). Shares of Trade Winds traded down to $0.03 in the 2008 crisis. Trade Wind shares were later bought for cash and stock, which at the time amounted to about $0.45 a share. My point is that people are nervous but that creates opportunity especially with what I believe will be a catch-up in equity prices. TGR: I hope with metals prices staying up, the credit markets will be a little more optimistic and will loosen up a bit. MZ: We certainly don't expect another period like 2008. I think that was an aberration. TGR: So, I hope the stocks start picking up here and not continue acting like gold is $800/oz and silver is $15/oz. MZ: That is what we expect and the precious metals stocks could really get a boost on QE3 or other stimulus programs. TGR: So, what do you think is going to be some sort of catalyst to get people more excited faster? Or is this just going to have to be a gradual progression and we are going to have to wait for $2,000/oz gold and $50/oz silver for people to really get into this market? MZ: The disconnect between gold/silver prices and mining company equities has grown considerably. The sector is cheap by historical standards when you consider the price of gold miners' shares relative to the price of gold. The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (XAU), which is an index of 16 precious metals and mining companies, is close to the lowest level it has been since the 2008 crisis relative to gold. We expect this ratio to gradually work its way back to the average. If we see gold mining stocks move up to even the low end of their historical range versus gold, it will mean a significant gain for many of these companies. Increased merger and acquisition (M& A) activity in the sector will get people interested in a lot of these companies. As the price of gold and silver continues to rise, the economics become very compelling, especially for large- and mid-cap companies to acquire smaller players. More interest in precious metals will help too. With what I see as a developing currency war—a race to devalue—I think more investors are going to turn to precious metals and related equities. TGR: It certainly seems like there are a lot of smaller companies out there with some interesting looking projects that may be sitting ducks for being taken over. If they have to keep going back to the market to raise more money and create more dilution, that could be a problem. What's your thinking on that? MZ: Small exploration companies are going to continue to need funds to advance their projects, and costs have been increasing. That's a major problem. The need to raise capital isn't going to change but we are seeing alternative ways of financing such as gold and silver streams, alternative debt arrangements and joint ventures, which mean less dilution. TGR: A lot of companies that were able to load up with plenty of cash at reasonable prices are obviously happy in this market. Do you think they're going to get pushed to go out and do acquisitions? MZ: I think what we're seeing now are mining companies with the ability to acquire languishing juniors taking advantage of the environment. The seniors and intermediates, which have filled up their treasuries with robust gold and silver prices, certainly have the ability to do the same. At the end of the year we saw companies like Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM:TSX AEM:NYSE) acquiring Grayd Resource Corp, AuRico Gold Inc. (AUQ:TSX AUQ:NYSE) acquiring Northgate Minerals, and New Gold Inc. (NGD:TSX NGD:NYSE.A) acquiring Richfield Ventures Corp. and Silver Quest Resources Ltd. We see this trend intensifying, especially if mining company valuations don't keep pace with rising metals prices. TGR: That brings us to a little follow-up on some of the companies that you talked about last time. A couple of the junior producers you talked about were Barkerville Gold Mines Ltd. (BGM:TSX.V) and Orvana Minerals Corp. (ORV:TSX). Can you tell us what's going on with them? MZ: The market has been disappointed with production from both companies. Barkerville recently got a boost after receiving a permit for its Bonanza Ledge property, which is a high-grade open-pittable gold resource. The delay in getting that permit meant that production was not what we had originally expected. Updated resource calculations for the company's Bonanza Ledge, Cariboo Quartz and B.C. vein zone in the first half of 2012 could be a positive there. Orvana has two properties that were both put into production in 2011. In Spain, the company's El Valle-Boinás/Carlés is an operating gold mine, which is not seeing the head grade we had expected. Grades are slowly increasing from around 2 grams per tonne (g/t) to an expected 3.5 g/t. Its other project in Bolivia, the Don Mario mine, has a different problem. It's an open-pit, copper-gold mine where recoveries have been less than expected—around 50% versus 70–80% for copper. We look for recoveries to improve and think a lot of the bad news has been priced into the shares. We're also encouraged by the fact that Bill Williams has now taken the helm of the company. Bill has exceptional operational technical expertise. TGR: So you feel both of those are reasonable values at this point? MZ: On Barkerville we're taking a wait-and-see approach and have the stock rated as a hold. On Orvana we believe the negative news has been priced into the shares and valuation looks compelling. TGR: So, how about some of the near-term producers that you follow, such as Canadian ZincCorporation (CZN:TSX CZICF:OTCBB)? MZ: Canadian Zinc is a situation where the valuation has not kept up with the project. The company recently passed the major hurdle for environmental approval of its Prairie Creek mine. It's a really interesting story—an old Hunt Brothers mine that could be in production in 2014 or maybe even as early as 2013. For readers who don't know the history of the Prairie Creek mine, it is in the Northwest Territories and was just a few months away from going into production when Silver prices collapsed in the early 1980s and the Hunt Brothers went bankrupt. It's a high-grade silver-lead-zinc mine with much of the infrastructure in place that we think has a lot of potential. We actually believe this is an ideal time to own shares of the company since fundamentals have improved and the share price has drifted lower with the sector. TGR: So that's another one to watch closely and this may be a good time to be picking some up. What about some of the other junior explorers that you like and have talked about in the past? MZ: For very near-term production I have followed but do not cover Armistice Resources Corp. (AZ:TSX). The company expects to produce 25,000 oz gold in 2012. At around $0.22/share, which is about 50% less than last year, valuation looks interesting. Two that I cover, which are exploration stories, are NioGold Mining Corp. (NOX:TSX.V NOXGF:OTCPK) and Prophecy Platinum Corp. (NKL:TSX.V PNIKD:OTCPK P94P:FSE). NioGold continues to drill at its Marban project in Val-d'Or, Québec. This is a joint venture with Aurizon Mines Ltd. (ARZ:TSX AZK:NYSE.A) where Aurizon is funding $20 million for exploration. We think the resource could grow fairly significantly from the current 960,000 oz to 1.4–1.5 million ounces (Moz). We actually think Marban could give Aurizon's other project, Joanna, some competition. I think the valuation looks fairly attractive here, trading at about 60% lower than our calculated net asset value. We're also excited about the potential of Prophecy Platinum. Prophecy has the Wellgreen deposit in the Yukon, which contains 12 Moz of combined PGMs and gold plus 2.4 billion pounds (Blb) of Nickeland 2.2 Blb of copper. The in-situ value is around $50 billion and we think a preliminary economic assessment due out in Q112 will show some strong economics for an optimized open-pit. The company is carrying out other work to derisk the project, including metallurgical studies and additional infill drilling for which we'll start seeing results early this year. TGR: So, that one is well priced at this point and a buy as far as you're concerned. MZ: Absolutely. The price drifted down after the excitement over the updated resource estimate, but it's come down to a level where we think it offers very good value. We have a $6.40 target price. TGR: So then, let's look at some silver juniors. One that you follow is Cream Minerals Ltd. (CMA:TSX.V CRMXF:OTCBB DFL:FSE). What's going on with that one? MZ: Cream is a company I cover and which I visited late last year. It's an exploration company with a 41 Moz silver deposit called Nuevo Milenio. It also has about 300,000 oz gold. We believe the company has the potential to really expand the current resource. Cream completed about 20,000 meters (m) of drilling in 2011 and we expect an updated resource out late Q112. This should actually upgrade a fair amount of the Inferred resource to Indicated and could add about 30% to that resource. We also see it doing another round of drilling of 20,000–30,000m in 2012, which we think has the potential to more than double the current resource. TGR: That sounds promising. MZ: Another one I don't cover but I think is very interesting is Oremex Silver Inc. (OAG:TSX.V OARGF:OTCBB OSI:FSE). This is a small-cap silver exploration company with assets in Mexico. The company recently moved up on good initial results on its Chalchihuites project. The project is in the same area as First Majestic Silver Corp.'s (FR:TSX AG:NYSE FMV:FSE) Del Toro project, and we understand First Majestic is aggressively acquiring property in the area. The company's flagship property, Tejamen, has a defined 51 Moz silver deposit. We think the president and CEO is also a real asset for a company with a market cap of around $20M. He's been manager of exploration and development for Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX:TSX ABX:NYSE) in South America. TGR: So, are you expecting that 2012 is going to be the year that mining stock investors finally wake up and smell the gold and realize it's time to get into this market? MZ: I think this is the year! Investors have been cautious and focusing just on the downside, holding their money in cash. I think investors should be opportunistic and look for well-run companies with strong management and great assets. TGR: Well, we're certainly hoping for that also. We appreciate your joining us today and look forward to talking with you again. MZ: Thank you and I appreciate the opportunity. Source: theaureport |
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bsiong
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01-Feb-2012 23:19
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Last Updated : 01 February 2012 at 19:30 IST Silver and Gold: Winning 2012 asset return race with 11 months leftGold outperformed (+0.5%) today (as the rest of its commodity peers lost ground on USD strength today) andCopper and Silver underperformed. But for January, Silver is the clear winner in the global asset return race (at almost a 20% gain) with Gold in 2nd place at around +11.2%. JGBs and the DXY (USD) along with UK Gilts and Oil lost the most ground among the major assets we track. The outperformance of the precious metals as the dollar ebbed along with the general 'last year's losers were January's winners' and vice-versa was evident as Asia Ex-Japan and EM equities surged along with Nasdaq (and Copper). Long-dated Treasuries have just limped into the money for the year as they rallied dramatically today - ending the day at their low yields (new record 5Y lows) with 30Y now -12bps on the week. FX markets gave a little of the USD strength back in the afternoon but the rally in stocks was almost entirely unsupported by risk assets in general (as it seemed like a desperate low-volume try to push ES back to VWAP into the close to hold the 50/200DMA golden cross in SPX) after this morning's dismal macro data. Financials rallied to fill some Friday close gaps but gave some back into the close as CDS inched wider and Energy underperformed as Oil came almost 3% off its early morning highs (managing to crawl back above $98 by the close). IG credit outperformed as HY and stocks were largely in sync but open to close, credit outperformed stocks on a beta basis (after overnight exuberance in stock futures faded).  Selected asset returns YTD (leaving Silver out due to its significant outlier nature on the y-axis at almost 20%) shows the reds (last year's losers) have tended to outperform and the greens (last year's winners) have underperformed in January. The dotted lines tended to be assets that moved only modestly and its clear that SPX and NDX have done well among that group.  A little tighter focus just on the US and precious metals shows an interesting limping lower post Bernanke in Stocks while PMs and Bond surged (perhaps QE was priced in or simply losing its mojo). ES (the e-mini S& P 500 futures contract) managed to inch back up to VWAP (red oval) and then sell-off modestly into the close as heavy volume came in.  Once again we see ES tickled up by the algos to enable heavy institutional sell orders (much higher average trade size) at VWAP. This rally of the afternoon was not supported by any broad risk driver as Treasuries closed at low yields (and flattest curves), FX carry only just off its lows, and commodities weak with only credit (which we suspect was just being virtuously reracked as we heard volumes were thin in CDX). This dislocation is evident from the CONTEXT chart below, where correlations had been very high all day and fell apart as stocks rallied in the afternoon:  HYG and VXX also underperformed SPY but despite a surge in volumes in cash at the very close today, volumes in January for stocks were ridiculously low on average.  Gold pushed higher all afternoon as its peers stabilized in the red for the day. Copper and Silver have resynced for now and Gold has become much less correlated.  Chart of the day goes to Treasuries in our view though as the sell-off yesterday afternoon and overnight was entirely rejected as macro data in the US along with desperation in the Greek PSI drove safe haven flows (and perhaps some month-end rebalancing) into the entire complex with the long-end (duration baby) benefiting most. Source: Zero Hedge |
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bsiong
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01-Feb-2012 23:16
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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February 1, 2012 |
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bsiong
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01-Feb-2012 15:09
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Last Updated : 01 February 2012 at 12:05 IST
Gold headed for the biggest monthly gain of the centuryBy Ben Traynor Gold prices hit $1745 per ounce – just less than 14% up on the Dollar Gold bullion price set at the last London Fix of 2011. By this measure, January 2012 looked set to record the fourth-largest calendar month gain in the last three decades, and the biggest since September 1999, the month that saw the signing of the Central Bank Gold Agreement, which limited the sales of gold bullion by signatory central banks. Stocks and commodities also gained Tuesday, while government bond prices dipped. " In overnight trade in Asia, we continued to see lackluster physical interest," says Marc Ground, commodities strategist at Standard Bank. " [There was] even some scrap gold and Silver coming to market from Japanese recyclers...nevertheless, prices held steady." Physical volumes on the Shanghai Gold Exchange Tuesday were down 28% on the previous day. The first day's trading after Lunar New Year saw " strong physical demand" on Monday, according to one gold bullion dealer in Hong Kong. Silver bullion prices meantime hovered around $33.80 per ounce – 21.2% up on the start of January. Industrial manufacturers meantime are set to use over 15,000 tonnes of silver in 2012 – 2.5% more than last year – according to estimates by Barclays Capital. Morgan Stanley meantime reckons investors may invest in 2000 tonnes of silver bullion via exchange traded vehicles – following net selling by such investors of 1300 tonnes last year. " Silver got hammered [following last April's peak]," says Dan Smith, head of metals research at Standard Chartered. " Now we're into a phase where it will do quite well...Appeal comes from its widespread use in both industry and investment. I think it's relatively cheap." " The short-term investment argument is not entirely convincing," counters David Jollie, strategic analyst at Mitsui Precious Metals in London, citing " weak industrial demand" in places like China. Chinese silver imports in December were 36% down on their average for the last two years, customs data cited by newswire Bloomberg show. Here in the UK, seasonally adjusted M4, the broadest money supply measure, fell 1.4% in December – its largest one month drop since the Bank of England began recording the data in 1982. The year-on-year fall was 2.5%. Net consumer credit in November meantime fell by Ł377 million – the first net drop since last January and the biggest monthly fall since the data series began in 1993. " There is clearly a risk that credit constraints may hinder the reallocation of resources required to rebalance the economy," Bank of England governor Mervyn King said in a speech last week, adding that " there is scope for interest rates to remain low, and, if necessary, for further asset purchases [to facilitate quantitative easing]." Eurozone unemployment meantime hit a record high last month at 16.5 million people – with the unemployment rate at 10.4% – according to official figures published Tuesday by Eurostat. " In many cases you find firms continuing to delay investment projects," notes Citigroup economist Guillaume Menuet. " For those that are still making profits, hiring is being frozen, and for those which are under pressure to hit results or losing money, job losses are becoming the only solution that they have." Elsewhere in Europe, banks are preparing to borrow at least €1 trillion when the European Central Bank holds its 3-Year longer term refinancing operation next month – more than twice the amount borrowed at December's 3-Year LTRO. Greece meantime is hoping to conclude a deal with its private sector creditors by the end of the week, Greek prime minister Lucas Papademos said Tuesday. There remained however no agreement among European leaders over what to do about the deterioration is Greece's fiscal position. " Greece's debt sustainability is especially bad," German chancellor Angela Merkel said Monday. " You have to find a way through more action by the Greek government, more contributions by private creditors, for example, in order to close this gap." At yesterday's summit leaders agreed to accelerate the implementation of the €500 billion European Stability Mechanism, the Eurozone's permanent bailout fund. There was also endorsement of proposed new deficit rules – although a German suggestion that the EU appoint a budget commissioner to oversee Greece's finance appears not to be receiving wider support. " Surveillance of Greece's progress is normal," French president Nicolas Sarkozy said, " but there was never any question of putting Greece under guardianship." Over in the US, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates Gold futures and options trading on the New York Comex, has said it is considering new rules aimed at firms using automated and high-frequency trading systems as part of its efforts to implement the Dodd-Frank legislation on financial services. Venezuela has completed the repatriation of 160 tonnes of gold bullion – around three quarters of its total reserves that were held in US, European and Canadian banks – newswire Dow Jones reports. " Venezuela's gold is now in the hands of Venezuelans, secured by Venezuelans and at the service of all Venezuelans," said Venezuela's central bank head Nelson Merentes. Gold bullion makes up 71% of Venezuela's total foreign reserves, according to figures from the World Gold Council. Source: bullionvault |
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01-Feb-2012 15:01
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Last Updated : 01 February 2012 at 11:30 IST
'Gold and silver will shine over the next few months'
By Patrick A. Heller Through the COMEX close on Monday, January 30, the prices of Gold and Silver had increased more than 10% and 20% over the course of the month. Had these results been realized by any of the major stock indices, you can be sure they would garner headline coverage. But strong markets in gold and silver continue to receive comparatively minimal reporting by the mainstream financial media. Actually, the value of gold and silver haven’t changed at all. Ounces of physical gold and silver are still worth the same today as they were a month ago. What has changed is that the values of paper currencies, stocks, and bonds have mostly fallen in January. In mid-January, the US Dollar Index reached its highest level since September 2010. This temporary strength resulted from the weakness in the Euro. The falling value of the Euro was related to the financial problems in many European nations, where sovereign credit ratings were dropped for at least ten countries in that continent within the past month. Governments such as France, Italy, Spain, and Austria were among those hit by credit downgrades.From its peak two weeks ago, the US Dollar Index has dropped 2%. Investors are now not only afraid of the Euro, they are also afraid to hold US dollars. Last week, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee announced that it was prepared to unleash new rounds of stimulus, also known as quantitative easing, which are just disguises for the inflation of the US money supply. In other words, the Fed promised to reduce the future value of the US dollar. People are figuring out that this is really what all the fancy words mean, and are already taking steps to find other safe haven assets. The US and European governments have declared economic war on Iran, which is driving Iranian citizens to abandon their domestic currency in favor of dollars, gold, or other assets. In response, Iran’s government has announced currency exchange controls on January 28. The head of Iran’s central bank announced that all dollar exchange transactions must be conducted at the rate of 12,260 Iranian rials per dollar. At the time, the black market exchange rate was over 20,000 rials per dollar. The imposition of currency controls pushed down the black market rate to 17,000 rials per dollar. In addition to waging economic war, the US is rapidly expanding army, navy, and air force personnel and equipment relatively near to Iran. France has also dispatched an aircraft carrier to the region. Fear of a major military conflict also hurts the value of paper assets and typically results in higher Gold and Silver prices. The price of silver has been particularly supported by the announcement from Sprott Asset Management that its physical silver exchange traded fund (PSLV) will purchase 10 million ounces of physical silver. Analysts are divided whether there is sufficient physical silver readily available anywhere to make delivery on a timely basis. When Sprott purchased about 20 million ounces a year earlier, the company reported that about half of the physical silver it received was mined and fabricated after the date of the purchase. Simply, that means that physical silver inventories are much tighter than the “experts” claim. This short list doesn’t cover all the problems hurting the values of currencies, stocks, and bonds. However, the important point to realize is that none of these problems are being resolved. I would hope that war with Iran is avoided, but I doubt that any development would mean that military conflict will never happen. With the Greece and Portugal sovereign debt almost certain to default at some point, paper investments are likely to continue to deteriorate as 2012 progresses. For the past few months I have forecasted that gold and silver prices will reach $2,000 and $60, respectively, by the end of May at the latest. I’m sure that gold would have difficulty holding $2,000 the first time it reaches that level. Silver will probably also experience extremely volatile markets as it approaches $50. So, even though I think gold and silver will shine over the next few months, I also expect prices to be quite volatile. In summary, I think what gold and silver prices did in January are just a taste of what is to come. Source: Coinweek |
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01-Feb-2012 14:28
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Gold steady U.S., Europe data eyed * China official PMI data better than expected
* Investors cautious ahead of more data
* Coming up: Euro zone Markit manufacturing PMI, Jan 0858 GMT
By Rujun Shen
SINGAPORE, Feb 1 (Reuters) - Gold was steady on
Wednesday after ending January with its biggest monthly rise
since August, while investors eyed more data from the world's
key economies for trading cues after China released a
better-than-expected manufacturing survey number.
China's official Purchasing Managers' Index showed the manufacturing sector expanded modestly in January, with the index reading inching up to 50.5 from 50.3 in December, above a 49.5 reading forecast. " The short-term trend (for commodities) is still favourable, especially after encouraging data from China today," said Peter Tse, director at ScotiaMocatta in Hong Kong, but warned about increased volatility as a result of uncertainties over the euro zone debt crisis . Spot gold was little changed at $1,738.10 an ounce by 0319 GMT, off a nearly two-month high of $1,747.39 hit in the previous session. U.S. gold traded flat at $1,738.30. Hope for further monetary easing from the United States and the euro zone run high and will likely support gold, especially after the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted at the possibility of more asset buying last week. Physical buying interest remained muted after China returned from the Lunar New Year holiday earlier this week. " There's no physical buying interest at this price level," Tse said. Data due later in the day include the euro zone manufacturing survey and the Institute for Supply Management index from the United States. The euro zone flash inflation for January and U.S. January employment data from ADP are also expected. The reports were likely to show many economies are seeing a sluggish start in 2012 amid slowing demand, putting central banks around the world under pressure to keep an accommodative policy to support growth. |
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01-Feb-2012 08:18
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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 live STI 
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01-Feb-2012 08:16
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 Gold, Silver Winning 2012 Asset Return Race With 11 Months Leftfor January, Silver is the clear winner in the global asset return race (at almost a 20% gain) with Gold in 2nd place at around +11.2%. Read More |
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01-Feb-2012 08:15
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 Leeb - Silver To Break $100 This Year & Gold Bull On The Move“The implications are that gold, if you look at the 70s, could easily go up eight fold from here. That’s where you get your targets in excess of $10,... Read More |
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01-Feb-2012 08:13
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Last Updated : 01 February 2012 at 02:05 IST 'Silver may be poised for solid gains in 2012'\LONDON (Commodity Online): Silver may be poised for solid gains in 2012 after a poor showing in 2011 and strong demand for the metal, said optionsXpress in a research note. “Technically, the (Comex) March Silver contract has made significant progress, but prices need to sustain rallies above $35 to keep the rally going,” optionsXpress added. Silver has been one of the strongest commodities during January. “Oversold conditions and increased demand from industrial users of the metal have contributed to the rebound,” OptionsXpress said. “Investors have also become a bit numb to the financial crisis gripping Europe, and they appear to be less convinced that the worst-case scenario is a real possibility. Silver has also ridden the coattails of the Gold market, which has performed well as an inflation play. Silver traders also got a boost from the FOMC, which forecast interest rates to remain at extremely low levels for the next 2-3 years, stoking some inflation fears,” OptionsXpress said. |
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01-Feb-2012 08:12
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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January 31, 2012 |
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01-Feb-2012 00:35
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Last Updated : 31 January 2012 at 21:05 IST Gold stocks poised to repeat the massive Great Depression rallyBy Hubert Moolman It was no coincidence that gold stocks performed as well as they did. Like all goods, gold stocks will thrive under the ideal conditions. During the Great Depression, those ideal conditions were present. The purpose of this editorial is to look at what those conditions were, and identify a pattern that was present before and during those rallies. If we are able to identify those circumstances and pattern, we could look to see if they are present today, or in the future, in order to know when to expect a massive gold stocks rally. – end of extract. I then go on to identify those ideal circumstances and patterns that were present before and during the great gold stocks rally. The conditions today are very similar to then, and is an ideal set-up for a most spectacular gold stocks rally over the coming months. Here, I would like to illustrate, by way of a chart, how the conditions were similar. The gold stock rally of the 1930s coincided with major economic decline, as well as a significant increase in the real price of gold. Below, is a chart (from planbeconomics.com) of the long-term Gold/Oil ratio:
On the chart I have highlighted a peculiar pattern that exists just before the gold stocks rallies of the Great Depression and the early 70s. The pattern is basically: The peak in the stock market (DOW) and Dow/Gold ratio – point p Gold rallies significantly from about after 1 – point g After a significant bottom in the Gold/Oil ratio and after that ratio has been rising for quite some time. Note that the yellow lines in the chart represent the point where the Gold stocks really took off (broke out) Currently, conditions are setting up in a similar manner to the Great Depression and the early 70s. We have a significant bottom in the long-term Gold/Oil ratio, we have had a peak of the Dow and the Dow/Gold ratio (in 1999) and we have had a gold rally that started after 1999, and is about to accelerate. We are also at a point where major economic decline can be expected (see my previous video), similar to the decline during the Great Depression. So, it appears that we have conditions that are ideal for gold stocks to finally take the Lead in this bull market. Do the charts for these gold stocks agree? Below, is a chart of the HUI:
The HUI appears to have bottomed, and is currently embarking on a massive rally. The yellow line should be good support, should price fall back again. Buying close to the yellow line would also be a good long-term entry point. Please note that the green drawn line is just for illustration purpose, it is not meant to show exactly how the chart will play-out. A scenario for the HUI, which is very likely, is that the HUI follows the example of silver’s rally from the $19 level to $49. I think this is very likely, since it seems that the HUI is now in a very similar situation to where Silver was in August 2010. |
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31-Jan-2012 23:29
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January 31, 2012 |
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31-Jan-2012 21:11
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Last Updated : 31 January 2012 at 17:05 IST
Gold: US Fed sets the groundwork for higher prices, spotlight on GreeceNEW YORK: Gold saw its fourth consecutive weekly rise last week, with YTD returns matching growth over the whole of 2011 at around 9%. Federal Reserve interest rate projections hinting that official interest rates could remain rock-bottom into 2014 was the chief catalyst, tempting investors out of cash after 2011’s end of year deleveraging. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke also hinted that if the Fed’s expectations of anaemic recovery in the US jobs market comes to pass, the Fed will likely look at ways to ramp-up monetary stimulus. Negative real interest rates have been a key support factor for gold in recent years  Precious metals positioning and technicals becoming more supportive. Net speculative futures positioning in silver, the hardest hit in the Q4 speculative long position clear-out, saw its fourth consecutive weekly build in net long positions last week, with net speculative futures positions in other precious metals also continuing to rise after hitting their lowest levels in at least 2 years by the end of 2011. Technicals are also becoming more supportive with Gold holding above its 200 day moving average and other precious metals also moving back to their 200 day trend lines Greek debt deal and global Lead indicators likely to be main market drivers this week. This week investor focus will likely be on the EU Summit in Brussels, Greek debt negotiations and key purchasing manager and labour indicators including the US manufacturing ISM, payrolls, China, UK and EU PMIs. Growth and a controlled write-off of Greek (and probably Portuguese) debt remain critical to maintaining the commodity and cyclical asset rally so far this year. Source: Etfsecurities Precious Metals Weekly report |
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31-Jan-2012 20:54
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Gold back in vogue, posts biggest gain since Aug * Gold's rise could top 11 percent this month * Jan gains leave 2011 volatility in the shade * Low rate environment a key support $1,800 next hurdle * Coming Up: U.S. consumer confidence Jan 1500 GMT By Veronica Brown LONDON, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Gold prices rose on Tuesday on a weaker dollar and were on course for their biggest monthly rise since August, raising the possibility of a climb toward last year's record high of just over $1,900 per ounce. Sentiment for gold at the end of January compares starkly with late December, when prices dropped by more than 10 percent in their biggest monthly fall since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in an investor dash for cash. A $400 price drop from last September's record $1,920.30 had left investors questioning whether gold had ended an 11-year rally. Gold was up 0.6 percent at $1,740.80 an ounce by 1143 GMT, having earlier touched $1,744.80 - its highest since mid-December and up some 11.2 percent on the month to date. The euro rose against the dollar on hopes for a Greek debt restructuring deal that would help the country avoid a disorderly default, possibly setting itself up for a test of a key chart level. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for holders of other currencies. While recovering global share prices and hope of a deal for Greece tempered gold's safe-haven gloss on Tuesday, concerns about Portugal following a similar path to Greece and data pointing to a poor first quarter in the euro zone kept the background environment supportive. More broadly, bullion was benefitting from a favourable monetary policy backdrop, with a jump of almost 5 percent last week after the U.S. Federal Reserve pledged to keep interest rates near zero until at least late 2014. " Interest rates remain low, euro zone problems persist, the situation in Portugal got worse yesterday ... and now that we broke through $1,740 it looks like prices might go up," said Alexander Zumpfe, a precious metals trader at Heraeus in Germany. A top U.S. Federal Reserve official said on Monday he would have preferred a more optimistic statement on the U.S. economy, after the central bank painted a grim picture of the recovery last week and forecast ultra-low interest rates. " With gold starting 2012 at a cracking pace ... gold may be poised to set fresh highs this year but much earlier than many - ourselves included - would have expected." Ross Norman, chief executive of Sharps Pixley, said in a note. PORTUGAL YIELDS BREACH 17 PERCENT Portugal's 10-year government bond yields fell sharply on the day but remained in sight of 17.0 percent, close to euro-era highs of around 17.4 percent, stoking the fears that Lisbon may become the next Athens. " Sentiment seems to have improved quite tremendously, I would say. We are now into more bullish territory, more than ever, with the Fed providing enough fundamental support," said Dominic Schnider, head of commodity research at UBS Wealth Management. " I think we have good reasons to believe we are going to test $1,805. The Fed was clearly the most important event," he added. Gold has gained for the last four weeks, with a spike in prices before the Lunar New Year holidays being driven partly by Chinese buying. " Before the Chinese New Year really started, we've seen quite strong gold exports from Hong Kong to China. Apparently Chinese demand was very solid," said Schnider. The most active U.S. April gold contract rose $7.80 an ounce to $1,742.30 an ounce. Greece and its private creditors realise the need for it to avert a financial collapse and are close to a deal on restructuring Greek sovereign debt, Luxembourg Finance Minister Luc Frieden said on Tuesday. Silver added 0.9 percent to trade at $33.77 an ounce after rising to $33.95 on Monday, its strongest since mid-November. Platinum and palladium also firmed. Holdings of the world's largest silver-backed exchange-traded fund, iShares Silver Trust rose about 1 percent to 9,608.95 tonnes by Monday, from 9,510.70 tonnes on Friday. Traders and investors were also watching for further developments at South African miner Impala Platinum. It said on Monday its Rustenburg operations remained shut after the majority of workers staging an illegal strike over wages failed to return to work. (Additional reporting by Lewa Pardomuan in SINGAPORE Editing by Jane Baird) |
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bsiong
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31-Jan-2012 09:29
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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 Harvey Organ's Daily Gold & Silver ReportMFGlobal and our vaporizing 1.2 billion dollars/Greece and Portugal/Gold and silver raid prior to first day notice Read More |
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bsiong
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31-Jan-2012 09:28
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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 TF Metals Report: Didn't Miss MuchUntil then, let's see if silver can break UP and out of this current range. If it does, it will likely head to 35-35.50 pretty quickly. Read More |
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