Latest Forum Topics / Entertainment | Post Reply |
Fellowship of the Shares
|
||
giantlow
Master |
02-Aug-2007 11:36
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
thanks elf. i was worried about my SMB for a moment there |
|
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
Manikamaniko.
Master |
02-Aug-2007 11:23
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
The crowd who have lost will be coming back soon... to try and win back their losses...
|
|
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
|
||
elfinchilde
Elite |
02-Aug-2007 09:34
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
ok, slight recovery on the way. pls take it slow tho. advise to stagger your buys, either by lots, or by dollar. better safe than sorry. sentiment is still very fragile and volatile. wld expect the pennies to recover before the blues. because the rout of the blues is due primarily to foreign institutional money flowing out (ie, big BBs); but the pennies are supported by local as well as foreign hedge funds, private investors etc (ie, small BBs). That was why the selldowns are more volatile than in the past years: the new sBBs in (private hedge funds) skew the pic a lot. never quite elaborated on this before but some idea now: your standard foreign fund house (big BB) tends to play only long, and in the blues, or in the companies where there are analyst reports generated. These funds are also diversified: ie, exposed to the US subprime crisis. (note strictly from my experience, some might have changed by now). so they might pull out of asia to support the fall in the US: entirely a money management issue, nothing to do with the fundamentals of the companies at all. Whereas small BBs like hedge funds, be they foreign or local, do not have to nor do they play 'by the rules'. ie, they can go both long and short; they can play the mids and pennies too. They tend to be less exposed to subprime situation, since they focus on one region, or market (eg, asian value plays, or SGX/Bursa plays). Esp so for the local sBBs: who account for most of the penny momentum, not foreign institutional funds. so now that the pic has cleared up a little: yesterday drop can be separated out for clarity: the blues (STI) dropped due to selling by the bBBs. But the pennies dropped even more, due to sBBs selling, panic selling by contra players, AND further shorting by both punters and sBBs alike. That's why STI drops ~5% but sesdaq drops 10%. Esp for recent Edge calls and highlighted pennies, since that brings them to the attention of retailers, which makes them more susceptible to premature rush ups and downs. so anw. from now onwards, actually from before, the parameters of the game has changed: expect higher highs and lower lows. This was why earlier last week, i had said to prep for a 20% drop in portfolio: this dow drop was expected to be 10-15%, but give an extra buffer due to sBBs and punters both selling and shorting. one very good lesson i learnt from victorian tho: cornered stocks with good fundamentals. because when a stock is cornered, assuming the major stakeholders don't sell (which they will not, IF your research has shown that the fundamentals are solid and there is profit yoy to justify the px), then recovery will likely be swift, as any drop will be due to punters and perhaps some sBBs playing; but the fact remains that fundamentals of the company are still good, and the major stakeholders hold most of it. ok, time to work! byebye! cheers and good luck! :) |
|
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
elfinchilde
Elite |
01-Aug-2007 23:19
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
hey fruitty! *hugs* :))) em...ndp standby....basically, whenever this country has large functions, there is a team of us to make sure nothing untoward happens. ok, that's telling enough liao... howl!!!! dow, go uppppp!!!!!! kbkbkbkbkbkkbkbkbkkbkbkbk!!!! sigh. ok, this is exhausting. elfie will be good. byebye. :) |
|
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
fruitty
Senior |
01-Aug-2007 23:08
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
hi elf, why do u have to be on NDP standby? |
|
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
|
||
elfinchilde
Elite |
01-Aug-2007 23:03
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
sigh. ok. dow looks like it's gonna close down. elfie gonna zzz already. stupid market. :( and on standby til NDP weekend over, too. :((( weh weh wehhhh... sigh. nites all. |
|
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
elfinchilde
Elite |
01-Aug-2007 22:32
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
hullo giantlow! SMB: relax lah. i'm still vested in it too. it dropped abt 10%, but look at sesdaq, also dropped 10%. so it's just in line. nothing out of the ordinary. the drop this time was more furious than expected tho; primarily because The Edge published an article calling a TP of 54c on it. so with the bull run last week (til wed), a lot of contra players had rushed into the counter, ramping it up to 51c at its highest. So this drop is actually expected, due to the contra T+5 trap. It was a premature rush, hence the retracement. if you look at busd data tho, there's very strong support at 41-42c. In FA terms: SMB's NAV is approx 23c, excl this year's results. They've recently disposed Oculus shares for a cash profit of abt 8mil, which is stated 'to be distributed to shareholders'. The profit yoy this time (FYE is 14 aug) is expected to be abt 38%. div distribution estimating 70% of cash given out, is 1.9c this time around. note smb owns edmi and yanlord as well, while its own switchgear biz is doing well. Doing a count of shareholders, the top 20 shareholders hold about 70% of SMB. So it's cornered. In my opinion, recent movement is not from these stakeholders, but from the small timers who rushed in due to the general bull sentiment and the edge's article. Weed out this white noise. You'll notice that the moment SMB hits 41-42c, sudden large lots appear to buy. Appears to me as tho stakeholders are taking the chance to increase their holdings, not decrease. So in terms of FA or TA, it's simple: hold. regret not locking in some at 47-49.5c tho. i thought from previous data, it doesn't swing below a 3c range, which didn't make sense for trading, esp since i can't watch all the time since at work. but sigh. who's to know. my bad; should have counted the contra volumes to estimate market depth and sell price to. erk. |
|
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
giantlow
Master |
01-Aug-2007 22:07
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
hey hey pple, any idea wats happening to my SMB. bought this counter based on Victorian's analysis sometime ago. more than 10% drop since its recent high. |
|
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
|
||
elfinchilde
Elite |
01-Aug-2007 22:05
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
and the dow begins its zigzag.... DJIA13,225.15 +13.16 0.10% NASDAQ2,542.55 -3.72 0.15% |
|
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
elfinchilde
Elite |
01-Aug-2007 22:00
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
fwah heng ah....if singaporegal is away for NDP holiday, with this current market, we'd all just hey, this emoticon is new...... so sweet!! ahhhh..... hehe. sorry, bimbo moment. anw, back to biz. most of the contras should have been cleared off today; so should hope that this is the end of it. tmrw and fri will still have forced selling for margin players tho. so hopefully that can be stemmed/is a light one; or it'll turn into a vicious cycle and drag prices even lower, as margin players 'tekan' even more margin players, who have to sell, dragging counters down, forcing more forced sells. gah. at this pt in time, considering 1014 counters down vs 110 counters up (which i'm sure are mainly the put warrants!), a holiday sounds good man. sigh. eheh. 1014 and 0110. 4D numbers, anyone? singaporegal! if you're at sentosa, go have a meal at The Cliff at Beaufort Sentosa. beautiful and ultra romantic place! |
|
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
singaporegal
Supreme |
01-Aug-2007 21:37
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Hi chinkiasu, Yeah... I'll be around for National Day. But will be taking a short break at a local resort. |
|
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
chinkiasu
Master |
01-Aug-2007 20:27
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
hello $$come$goo, have you located your Liptons Hazelnut flavour tea? I should point out that Liptons have a very big estate in Kericho, and that the Liptons Hazelnut flavour tea will contain some Kericho tea... | |
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
|
||
chinkiasu
Master |
01-Aug-2007 18:06
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
on the question of slimming, Datuk Baseer.. did I touch a soft spot in my reply to you... minta maaf, datuk... anyway... perhaps we try Chen Nian Pu Er... but seriously I will go for Kericho tea... it is really good.. caffeine is half that of normal coffee..but antioxidants level.. super .. but we should drink it teh oh peng kosong... ie. ice black tea, no sugar... (incidently the Kericho tea is not black but reddish brown..) | |
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
Fairygal
Veteran |
01-Aug-2007 16:56
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
....thus slimming effect...hee hee! |
|
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
chinkiasu
Master |
01-Aug-2007 16:54
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
hi fairygal... I think Chen nian pu er literally means aged pu er tea... I understand that is good, but I was told by some experience and internationally exposed chinese that they should be free from fungus... which in our climate we cannot guarantee this... so personally I would avoid this because boiled mold can have other stuff that may not be good for us... | |
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
chinkiasu
Master |
01-Aug-2007 16:28
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
more trivia on roobois:
|
|
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
Fairygal
Veteran |
01-Aug-2007 16:25
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
There is this Chen nian pu er tea. But it's aged. Is it still safe for consumption? Physically, it doesn't look nice. However, it's supposed to be good for slimming..... | |
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
chinkiasu
Master |
01-Aug-2007 16:24
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
ok, your wish is my command fairygal Roobois tea Wonderful herbal tea that is naturally sweet with a slight citrus overtone that brews to a pale ruby infusion. Rich in antioxidants, minerals and vitamins, this tea also known as African Red Bush restores the body's equilibrium after a vigorous workout. Grown organically on the Cedarberg Mountains in South Africa, this treasure is not found deep beneath the mountains like the diamond trade but on its slopes above. Delicious with spicy foods. Tasty hot or iced. One tsp./6 oz. cup. Steep 4-5 minutes. |
|
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
chinkiasu
Master |
01-Aug-2007 16:21
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
ok I do it in a moment, but first let me comment on Eastonbays Wu Liang Ye... the "5 grain" wine... it is made from Wheat, Rice, Barley, Maize and Sorghum and yes I understand it is more stimulating than Moutai...!! btw wu liang ye is also a name of a very good chinese restaurant in 48th stree NY NY... I have eaten there recently and their peking duck is really good.... |
|
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | ||
Fairygal
Veteran |
01-Aug-2007 16:16
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Hi Prof Cks, do a research on Roobois tea leh! | |
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me |