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Fellowship of the Shares
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choohian
Senior |
08-Aug-2007 10:49
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Vic, missed your gathering. My daughter and family left 7 Aug. Glad you are around to give advice. Thanks for your contributions. |
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rogue_trader
Master |
08-Aug-2007 10:18
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A word of my own personal opinions: Smaller channel / range playing to "induce" to people a stable-like market is in the making. In actual fact (in my personal opinions), i think market is either "clueless" or in the midst of a trap preparation. Maybe Shanghai index will be the next "downfall" indicator for STI.. vic, good luck to your kantang pickings. i dare not look at the screen now in case hives acting up on my fingers again.. lol. |
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victorian2
Senior |
08-Aug-2007 09:40
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ghlau935 Very good piece of work. Couldn't have written it better. This is the 2nd time or at least the worse of the 2 where subprime got wacked out of proportion. Dow Jones Transports is still above 5000 and going strong. No divergence between Dow and DJT so there so correlates with.... a. strong real goods and service economy (FED concern about excess demand like u mentioned) b. Warren Buffet bought heavilily into Transports stocks ie Railways c. World's current strong demand for goods and services, high employment etc as seen in record commidity prices, supply bottlenecks It's all about sentiment which sub-prime, perceived credit crunch is doing in the short term which was what sub-prime & carry trades did in Feb for 2mths. To bring down the prices of many stocks back to pre-June and even March prices. This is the real correction... sharp and hard. Lots of carnage but highly necessary to set the base for the even bigger run as with all mega rallies. Portfolio today is down by as much as 40% for 1 or 2 stocks and 20-30% for the rest giving me paper losses that will wipe out 30-40% of my overal profit if I realised losses. I see certain counters being bashed down by insiders/BBs to really forced out people & induced margin calls. Thankfully, I have large 30-40% margin buffers to absorbed the shocks in the last 2weeks (unfortunate as I lost my eye on the ball with work & travel) and now starting to put cash (profit/capital) taken out of the market in June back into the margins to ready the guns. Stock selection becomes crucial from now onwards with strong operating cashflow positive companies key going forward. Since we've got a clean slate (no offense to those who've lost money), I'll rewrite a new thread & put in the list of stocks that will likely to do well in the next 6mths (cos need to wipe out the painful memories... but's that's a time element that will pass). And yes, RT, there were many stocks that were about to surge but never did take off tks to the chaos created in US. East Tech one of my kantangs was surging amid the selloff and did not quite complete is major breakout... so I had to liquidiate quickly my large position there. Action Asia, CEI, CASA and PNE Industries too where I had large positions were on the verge of breaking or in day 1 of breaking but failed. 8telecom was starting up but again failed miserably. In fact, that was a sign that I should have seen as certain stocks failed to break even when launched. The positive side is with time, these stocks will break. |
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shplayer
Elite |
08-Aug-2007 09:25
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Hey elf mei mei, If you are considering these put/call warrants, please be very careful. It is very open to manipulation as giantlow will testify. Company issued warrants is a safer bet. At least it gives you the option to convert to the mother share if you believe in the longer term potential of the company. |
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giantlow
Master |
08-Aug-2007 09:02
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Just thought that you all would like to know that 80% of all warrants expire worthless. ?@#$@#! Thats what happened to my SPC warrants the last time. Hahaha |
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giantlow
Master |
08-Aug-2007 08:58
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ah. finally, i can be of service to my good fren, elf The exercise price is set by the warrant issuer. Basically, the STI warrants like a lot of other warrants in Singapore are on a cash settlement basis. Meaning that the warrant issuer with not give you the underlying security. They will pay you the price difference between exercise price and the price of the underlying security divide by the conversion ratio. this ratio is similar to rights, e.g. 4 warrants needed for 1 share. For STI, there is no underlying security (its not link to the STI ETF), so definately must be on cash settlement basis. When buying a warrant, u have 2 choices, sell b4 expiry or wait until expiry to exercise it. Singapore warrants are all European Styled. meaning that there is a specified date of exercise. This is unlike American Styled which allows u to exercise anytime b4 the expiry date. For example, if you buy the STI Put warrent at 3200, it means that the STI would have to fall below 3200 points before your warrent is In-the-Money. On the date of settlement, If the STI falls to 3000 points and the conversion ratio is 50. Your gain would be (3200 - 3000) divide by 50. i.e. $4 per warrent If the STI stays above 3200 points, all your warrents will expire worthless. |
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ghlau935
Veteran |
08-Aug-2007 08:48
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Here's a fact: The speculators and hedge fund managers who run today's stock market need market volatility in order to make money. They can't make enough money if the market stays flat or moves only a bit, so they like extreme and unexpected price movements. They especially like sudden, surprise movements down, when they can make money off stocks they borrow and sell -- or, as they say, "sell short." Money Lust Satisfied That's what's been happening the past couple of weeks. But it's not interesting to say that the speculators are whipping the market around to satisfy their money lust. So the speculators themselves make up reasons for why the market is fluctuating, flog those reasons to the media, and then profit if some other speculators believe the jive reasons and jump in the way the manipulators want them to. Supposedly, the market is "correcting" because of worries about the housing slowdown, and also because of fears that the debt markets that support mergers and acquisitions is drying up. These are interesting theories, and people who don't know a lot about the stock market or the economy might find them beguiling. What follows are a few truths that show how shallow these "reasons" for the stock market moves are. Housing a Theory Yes, the housing market has slowed from a spectacular bubble level to a simply pretty good level. Housing sales and starts are now about what they were in 2002, and no one thought we were in a housing depression then. In any event, housing is only about 5 percent of the economy. If it falls by 15 percent, that would represent a fall-off of about .75 percent. That's not trivial, but it's also not the stuff of which recessions are made. The fact is that there is no recession. The economy is suffering from a labor shortage, not a surplus of unemployment. The Fed is worried about excess demand, not slack demand. Corporate profits set new records every day. Whatever's happening in residential sales and building is simply not slowing down the economy. Why should a Boeing or a Merck or a Pfizer have any reaction to housing at all? Because the speculators sell everything they can when nervousness sets in -- and for no other reason. A Minor Major Mess Subprime is a mess. But it's a small mess. Subprime mortgages account for roughly 20 percent of mortgages even in the most heavily exposed states. About 20 percent of them are delinquent in some way. That's 4 percent of mortgages. Of these, maybe half, or 2 percent, will go into foreclosure. There will be roughly 50 percent recovery on sale of these. This is a loss of 1 percent in the mortgage market -- a sum the lenders have already made many times over because of the hefty fees on those deals. In the context of the size of the U.S. financial sector, it's nothing. And why should a crisis in subprime drive down stocks in Mexico and Thailand? Again, because the speculators seek to create panic to make money by selling short, and they sell short everything. There's simply no connection between subprime and developed or developing nations' stocks. This by itself shows the thin context of the selling wave late last month. Money's Still Cheap What about the supposed drying up of loans for mergers and acquisitions by private equity firms? Well, here's a good, simple test of just how valid that explanation is for stock market moves: The majority of private equity takeovers are financed with junk debt. If there really were a major shortage of funds for these deals, the interest rate on the junk would skyrocket. Instead, while the rate has risen by about 150 basis points in the past month, the spread between junk and investment grade is now about 290 basis points, according to leading junk analyst Martin Fridson. This is a lot lower than the year-end average of the spread from 2002 to 2006, and far below the almost 800 basis point spread during a true interest-rate crunch like the one after the tech meltdown in 2000-2002. So that's phony, too. Interest rates have risen, but not anything like what they've done in real crises. And besides, the Dow fell by about 550 points the week before last, yet not one of the Dow stocks is involved as either acquiror or acquiree in a private equity deal. In short, money is no longer virtually free the way it was for private equity deals in the past year. But it's not expensive by historical standards, either. Spreading the Fear In other words, it's all the speculators trying to panic us so their sell programs will make money. And they'll make money as long as they can spread their panic. When they can't do that any longer, they'll work the long side -- and make up reasons for that, too. In the meantime, the economy is strong. Profits are great, and interest rates are low and will stay that way. Don't sell. With all the shrieking about the market, it only fell to what it was about five weeks ago -- and we didn't think we were poor then. So let the speculators shout "fire." As of right now, they're not blowing anything but smoke. |
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rogue_trader
Master |
08-Aug-2007 08:46
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Just some thoughts for the day: Been reading the past few weeks charts and noticed something.. Point 1- Certain counters that are poised for a "breakout" (by the interpretation of the charts) never did surges Point 2- Upping the development charges Point 3- US woes So in my own views, i think this time round got quite a few BBs and institutional "players" actually did gave the average retailer player to run road but they never did. And this "meltdown" is actually a "good measure" to cool down the housing fever so that Singapore economy can be "back to proportional".. So in my own views, i think let give way to this "mini bear" to roam about freely 1st as it is quite impossible to beat Mr Sentiment right now.. Imagine a real bear versus a real bull in a fight? Guess who will win?? Remember, bears can climb tress, lol.. My respects to those "star dealers" from KE & KH.. PS: I am waiting for that 1 day of "netting of shortists" run up then down again.. |
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CWQuah
Master |
08-Aug-2007 00:03
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Hi Elf, I've not done warrants myself, but the following link may help you out. Valuations of warrants are quite a mathematical exercise in itself so I'd suggest going thru the site below in more detail: http://sg.warrants.com/singapore/home4/basic/handbook01.html |
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chinkiasu
Master |
07-Aug-2007 18:04
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Great poem Lausk22 !! Perhaps we should keep the collection... and let someone put music to it (elf??) and then one day, when we all can meet we shall sing it together.... by a camp fire... |
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rogue_trader
Master |
07-Aug-2007 17:47
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Spotted quite a lot of "range / channel traders" at work for the past few days. Managed to lessen my losses but still lost, sighz.. Market sentiment very bad now, any push-ups will be almost immediately sold-down / shorted.. In my own opinions, a lots of FA / TA / GA / CBA / whatever A types of BBs will be very careful with their hard-earned $$.. In my own feel, will not see that many huge push-ups liao but tons of sell-downs easily spotted. As posted earlier, trade with cautious.. Even some BBs was burnt quite "fiercely" but they are very "disciplined", lost 2 hands and take plane "eat wind" liao.. At least these BBs can "tahan" the losses, but what about those average guy / gal on the streets? When the dust will settled will be quite unfathomable.. And when the dust really settled, it will takes another X amount of time for smart $$ to really start flowing into Singapore market.. If going by my style of calculation, quite huge amount of $$ had oreadi flowed out from the US equity to bonds or safer places.. And if USD will to start diving, the chances of these foreign funds flowing into other markets will be quite "impossible".. Heard from many people to only enter the market when STI is around 3200.. But can "calculation" outwin market sentiment?? If going by the ABC theories with those support & resistance rainbow lines, is the calculations so "good" then market sentiments? A single fierce hand in the market for the past few days can rendered a person into a millionaire or "permanent beggar".. So in my own opinions now, the market is entering into a "irrational" mode which had rendered a lots of indicators useless liao.. |
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sohguanh
Veteran |
07-Aug-2007 15:58
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i dunno abt STI put warrant but for normal stock warrant very often you need to contact the warrant agent which administer for that warrant which could be Barbinder or some other companies. they will then send you a form for you to fill in those warrants lot and the exercise price is predetermined when the warrant is first launched. then you go bank get a cashier order and send them together with the form to them. they will then process for you all the necessary followup. note the warrant is not immediately become mother share. i tink SGX consolidate and then periodically do a formal announcement before those warrants converted to mother share become trade-able on SGX. therefore the warrant conversion process could take quite some time as compared to rights issue. for short term players they prefer not to exercise it i guess. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
07-Aug-2007 15:45
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hi colorado, thanks for the reply re the hdb thing. :) could someone who knows warrants help me out with the following pls? if i buy an sti put warrant, how does the exercise px etc come about? ie, i choose to hold it to expiry date and exercise it, rather than buy/sell on open market, how do you count its value then? and in first place, how do you exercise it? blur... |
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scotty
Senior |
07-Aug-2007 07:35
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Market will do well today. The Dow experienced biggest jump in 5 years! NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Wall Street's wild ride resumed Monday with the Dow industrials soaring 286 points, marking its biggest point gain in nearly 5 years, helped by financial sector strength and subsiding credit market fears. The Dow Jones industrial average (up 286.87 to 13,468.78, Charts) soared 286 points, or 2.2 percent, staging its biggest point gain since October 2002, just a day before the Federal Reserve holds its policy meeting. The 30-stock blue chip index, which tumbled 281 points Friday on credit market fears, is up 8.1 percent so far this year. The broader S&P 500 (up 34.61 to 1,467.67, Charts) gained 2.4 percent while the tech-laden Nasdaq composite index (up 36.08 to 2,547.33, Charts) climbed 1.4 percent. "With the Fed speaking tomorrow, I thought we would have had a much more modest market - I did not expect this kind of strength," said Doreen Mogavero, president and CEO at Mogavero, Lee & Co. |
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baseerahmed
Master |
06-Aug-2007 23:57
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lausk22 : you're poems are very nice its puts great ideas in bite size many a lions have become mice in this market these are not lies a time will come when all will rise then everyone will have won their prize ! ( kindly excuse this crude attempt at poetry ..hahaha ! ) |
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lausk22
Veteran |
06-Aug-2007 23:33
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In a turbulent stock mart
What is there for TA to chart
Charting is not even an art
Just a tool to set TA and FA apart
What we now need are brave hearts
To weather the storm that just starts
Come on let us be smart
Brace ourselves from falling apart
As every storm would depart
Once the selling waves are thwart
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davidxiao
Member |
06-Aug-2007 22:42
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Hi , may be can try Candle Charts, it may povide the opportunity for more timely trades? BTW, let every bird sing its own song... |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
06-Aug-2007 21:18
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Sigh... the market these couple of weeks is really quite terrible.... all my TA charts are skewed badly now. |
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davidxiao
Member |
06-Aug-2007 15:58
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hi CKS Then u owe me a sweat ....hahaha |
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chinkiasu
Master |
06-Aug-2007 15:45
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hi Shplayer, I think Elf maybe just buying the flat for her grandmother... I remember her mentioning it some many posts back... |
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