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Vard Holdings
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SFGuyRuleZ
Veteran |
30-Apr-2013 22:25
Yells: "You are your own master.." |
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Judging from today's candlestick, 1.015 seems like the new support. Wonder if it will rebound from here. Anyway, realized that this new thread does not reflect stock price. Tried to create a new forum topic using " Vard Holdings" just now but there was a technical glitch. In any case, Happy Labour Day to everyone!! |
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shareflux
Member |
30-Apr-2013 16:06
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Just a point of interest, Maybank Kim Eng Research holds 2,966,000 shares in VARD amounting to 0.25% of the total shares. MKE holding is listed in the annual report as the top 20 shareholders of VARD. Nevertheless, the takeaway from the NDR is approach with caution with a medium (6 to 9 months) time frame. Thanks, master Starlene for that up... |
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starlene
Elite |
30-Apr-2013 14:54
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NDR with Vard. We hosted a NDR for Vard in Singapore last week, meeting both institutional and retail clients. Investors zoomed in on 3 key concerns: (1) margin expectations, (2) order win prospects and (3) Vard’s direction after the change in ownership. Responses were mixed depending on each investor’s initial expectations relative to the outlook painted. Key takeaways below, maintain Buy, TP SGD1.66. Undue sell-down. We believe that recent weakness in share price is partly due to consensus cutting overly optimistic FY13F numbers and valuations due to margin concerns. We had initiated coverage with the lowest FY13F earnings estimate, forecasting an 11% dip and were well aware of the risks. Brazil yard issues a drag on group margins. In our view, the market has underestimated potential margin pressures from Brazil yard for FY13F and is now/would be realigning their forecasts. There are 4 vessels in Niteroi yard in Brazil facing delays, which would lead to additional costs. These contracts are not expected to be profitable and would bring down overall margins. We had already forecasted for a dip in margins for FY13F but we believe that with efficiency enhancements, higher utilisation and resolution of problems in Brazil yard would lead to an eventual margin recovery in FY14F. Room for upside surprise in contract wins. However, we believe that the strength of recovery from returning orders this year could surprise positively. Vard views market expectations for new contract wins (NOK10-11b) as overly pessimistic. It is confident to bring in close to NOK12b in new orders for FY13F, but contributions from new contracts would mostly be seen in its financials from FY14F onwards. We believe that there is room for upside to order-win estimates and would keep an eye on its contract win momentum this year. A more supportive owner. According to Vard, Fincantieri looks to be a better fit for Vard given cultural similarities and their greater enthusiasm to grow the company as compared to the previous owner. Meanwhile Vard’s management is intact and dividend policy is kept at a minimum of 30% payout (we assumed 40% in our model). Source: Maybank Kim Eng Research - 30 Apr 2013 |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
30-Apr-2013 08:43
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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...yes... it is wise move to wait for reversal signal before action ....
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shareflux
Member |
29-Apr-2013 22:47
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GYYY thanks for the up... i went to see the chart again. saw some interesting candle formation.... last dip at 7.10.2011 three-crows candle pattern and a hammer (volume 70 to 120 million shares daily) today... two crows already here.... if the 3rd one come tomorrow will see $1 and below.... if history repeat itself (30 million daily) volume weaker than 2011 so dip may not be as deep... Will I buy? No, unless i see a hammer on wednesday...
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
29-Apr-2013 21:26
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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…base on 2-yrs chart… Vard had fall below $1.00 in 2011 from 30.09 to 07.10 the only six trading days in last 2-yrs… ...lowest reach $0.790 (same as offered price dated 12 Nov 2010)… …prev close: $1.015… seems likely to drop below $1.00 again…kiv |
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ethanetoh
Member |
29-Apr-2013 18:39
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agree, but the forum title still STX OSV | ||
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shareflux
Member |
29-Apr-2013 18:22
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GYY, good work for this new thread! Hope ppl will migrate here and leave the old one with all the sweet and sour memories behind. Lets start afresh and let the management works with the new owner. Give them time and space. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
29-Apr-2013 15:33
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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...the old name is such an eye sore....  .... please don't mention it any more .......want to kick it into history.... .... ... a new thread is thus opening.... Shares of Vard Holdings, which designs and builds specialised vessels, will start trading at 29 April 2013, 9:00a.m. on the Singapore Exchange.  |
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