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Dow Outlook
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
11-Jun-2013 11:39
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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S& P Revises US Credit Outlook to 'Stable' From 'Negative'Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's on Monday upgraded its credit outlook for the United States government to " stable" from " negative," saying the chances of a downgrade of the country's rating is " less than one in three." In August 2011, S& P became the first credit rating agency to downgrade the sovereign U.S. credit rating from top-rated " AAA" to " AA ," the second highest rating, and had left the U.S. credit outlook at " negative" at that time. S& P said in a release that the recent improvements in tax receipts as well as steps taken to address longer-term budget issues improved the outlook for the United States. The agency raised concerns about the ability of policymakers to tackle long-standing issues due to a deepening of a partisan divide in Washington in the last decade, however. " We believe that our current 'AA ' rating already factors in a lesser ability of U.S. elected officials to react swiftly and effectively to public finance pressures over the longer term in comparison with officials of some more highly rated sovereigns and we expect repeated divisive debates over raising the debt ceiling," the agency said in a statement. Rival agencies Moody's and Fitch currently both hold triple-A ratings on the United States. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
11-Jun-2013 09:13
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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U.S. stocks end with Dow loss, Nasdaq gainS& P changes its U.S. rating outlook to stable from negativeNEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks ended a choppy session little changed on Monday after S& P’s Ratings Services revised its U.S. credit-rating outlook to stable from negative and consumer shares lost ground. After swinging between gains and losses during the session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 9.53 points, or 0.06%, to 15,238.59, with 14 of its 30 components in positive terrain. Walt Disney Co. fell 1.6%, the biggest decliner in the Dow. The S& P 500 dipped 0.57 point to end at 1,642.81, with consumer discretionary the biggest laggard and telecommunications the biggest gainer among its 10 major industry groups. The Nasdaq Composite gained 4.55 points, or 0.1%, to finish at 3,473.77. Investors are closely monitoring data and Fed speeches for any clues as to when the central bank may start scaling back its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
10-Jun-2013 22:09
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Stocks open higher as Japan's Nikkei soars 5%Stocks opened higher Monday adding to Friday's gains following an encouraging jobs report and as Japan's Nikkei 225 index jumped nearly 5%. The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 30 points, or 0.2% and the S& P's 500 index gained 4 points, or 0.4%. Traders in Japan were encouraged by Friday's U.S. Labor Department measure of employment, which showed the U.S. economy added 175,000 jobs in May, better than the expected 165,000 increase. Tokyo's Nikkei 225, the regional heavyweight, advanced 4.94% to 13,514.20. " The relief from U.S. jobs was palpable," said Mizuho Corporate Bank in a report. " It [the jobs report] said gains were " gentle enough to avert concerns" the Fed might be prompted to withdraw its " quantitative easing." In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 benchmark was trading higher — up 0.2% to 296. Other regional European indexes were also higher. Benchmark oil for July delivery fell 42 cents to $95.61 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract for benchmark crude rose $1.27 to close at $96.03 a barrel on the Nymex on Friday. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
10-Jun-2013 17:07
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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U.K. Recovery Gathers Pace as Output Gauge Improves, BDO SaysBritain’s economic recovery is showing signs of strengthening, with indexes of confidence, output and employment rising, according to a survey by BDO LLP. A gauge of company output expectations increased to 94.4, the highest since June 2012, from 94.1, and a business confidence index rose to 93.6 in May, the most in a year, from 93 in April, the accountancy firm said in a report in London today. A measure of employment intentions rose to 96.6 from 94.4. Still, the output index remains below the 95 level that points to positive growth one quarter ahead. ...more... |
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tanglinboy
Elite |
09-Jun-2013 07:57
Yells: "hello!" |
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I agree that the bull run is not over yet. | ||
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kelvinLim123
Master |
09-Jun-2013 00:35
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Now unemployment will rise going forward, last friday u see 7.6% why? because those who stop looking for work previously will come back to the mkt to register as unemploy, so the figure will only get higher as more come back to look for work , thinking the economy have improve. How can Ben do away with QE? Dow 16000 , here we come.LOL are u ready or are u sleeping. but what if all wrong? just cut lah, if correct u won more, if lose , just lose the profitr u make recently. Dont tell me u did not make money, more or less.
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kelvinLim123
Master |
09-Jun-2013 00:30
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From 1935 to 1953 the U.S. government would not allow the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury to move above 3%. It stayed range-bound between 1.5% and 3% for 18 years There was talk that rate may not rise for the next 3 years, dow will be where ??? 20000!!! don't say not possible, when we was at 13000, will 15000 surprise u, today we are here. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
08-Jun-2013 22:34
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Is a stock bubble coming? No, say economistsDozens of economists couldn’t be wrong, could they? According to a poll by the AP, three-fourths of the three dozen or so pundits they approached believe we’re not headed for a bubble. Plus, many say stocks are worth every penny right now, because corporate profits have been strong. Most of them — no surprise here — think the Fed’s $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program has been instrumental in lifting stock prices. With rates so low, investors have pushed money into stocks and out of bonds, and other accounts that aren’t yielding much, they say. ...more... |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
08-Jun-2013 22:27
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Why U.S. stocks may be poised for 5-year bull runAdam Grimes, chief investment officer for Waverly Advisors, said that the stock market is poised for a bull market that could last for several years, despite short-term concerns that could cause short-term setbacks. Appearing on MoneyLife with Chuck Jaffe, MarketWatch senior columnist, Grimes said, “There is a very strong set-up for a long-term bull market, and by ‘long term’ I mean we could be looking at one of those five-year bull markets from this point. So unless you are a short-term trader, that’s where, you want to focus your attention. “To my way of thinking for the average investor, there is little value in trying to be a hero you don’t have to sell the tops, you don’t have to catch the turns. … What you need to understand is ‘Is the uptrend intact?’ If so, then we want to be looking for reasonable spots to add exposure on the pullback.” Grimes noted that investors will have to endure some pain to profit, suggesting that despite the positive forecast that should have investors focused on the upside, investors must “be respectful of the short-term risks.” “You may buy and see a deeper pullback. You may have to endure some pain,” Grimes noted. “That’s the risk part of risk and opportunity in the market.” That said, Grimes – the author of “The Art and Science of Technical Analysis” – noted that there are market conditions where, regardless of analytical technique, markets tend to be less predictable, and that current conditions make this one of those times when it’s hard to find a “strong tactical edge” using technical, fundamental or macro analysis. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
08-Jun-2013 22:14
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Employment report no reason to change strategyJohn Maynad Keynes, the economist, was sometimes criticized for changing his mind. Never at a loss for words, he supposedly replied, " When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" Today's jobs report is no reason for investors to change their minds about the economy. The U.S. added 175,000 jobs in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, vs. Wall Street estimates of 165,000. While encouraging, that isn't enough to change the belief that the economy is growing slowly and that the Federal Reserve will continue to keep interest rates low. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 7.6%, from 7.5% in April. Labor force participation, an important measure of the employment situation, rose imperceptibly to 63.4% from 63.3% in April. " It says the economy is doing well, but is the Fed going to taper? Not really," says Paul Edelstein, director of economics for IHS Global Insight. " I'm going to wait and see what happens over the summer to see what the Fed might do in September." For investors, this means: • Your money funds and bank CDs will yield next to nothing until at least next year. The Fed has no reason to raise its key fed funds rate any time soon. • Bonds and bond funds will eventually see higher yields and lower prices -- but not soon. Sooner or later, you're going to have to move money from bond funds, but you don't have to do it all today. • Stocks have already had a big move: The Dow Jones industrial average has soared 14.78% this year. While they are not wildly overvalued, they're not cheap, either. Lower interest rates, however, make stocks more attractive vs. bonds and money funds, and more money is likely to pour into stocks and stock funds over the next few months. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
08-Jun-2013 08:32
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Stocks surge on May jobs report, Dow up 207Wall Street reacted positively Friday to the release of better-than-expected May jobs numbers, with the major U.S. stock indexes posting sharp gains. The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 207.50 points, or 1.4%, to 15,248.12. It was the Dow's second-biggest gain this year, surpassed only by its 2.4% rise Jan. 2. The Dow rose 0.9% for the week. The S& P's 500 stock index surged 20.82 points, or 1.3% to 1,643.38. The S& P 500 posted a weekly gain of 0.8%. The Nasdaq composite index gained 45.16 points, or 1.3%, to close at 3,469.21, and was up 0.4% for the week. The government reported that 175,000 jobs were created last month, 10,000 above analysts' estimates. But the unemployment rate, which has been elevated since the 2008 financial crisis, ticked up to 7.6% from 7.5% in April. The jobs report was considered market-friendly, says Bruce Bittles, chief investment strategist at R.W. Baird." It was kind of a 'Goldilocks' report," Bittles says. " Not too hot and not too cold." That's what Wall Street was hoping for because it reduces the odds of the Federal Reserve dialing down its market-friendly stimulus program at its June meeting, which has been a big market fear since Fed chairman hinted at such a possibility in Congressional testimony two weeks ago. The end of the Fed's bond-buying program was pushed farther off into the future. In addition, the solid job-creation number also eases fears that the economy, which has hit a soft patch in recent weeks, is in danger of suffering a more severe deceleration. " It keeps the Fed in play," says Bittles. Wall Street is now betting that a taper might come at the Fed's meeting in September or December, or even early next year, says Bill Stone, chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management. Still, Stone warns that uncertainty over the timing of the Fed's exit from its four-year old bond-buying program, which is designed to keep borrowing costs low, will continue to roil markets and cause volatility. " The Fed is still data-dependent," says Stone. " And the market will be still watching for signs of when the Fed will begin to taper." |
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GorgeousOng
Elite |
07-Jun-2013 12:00
Yells: "Hehehaha...enjoy life n live to the fullest..." |
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Hmmm ...."Even if Fed doesn't stop QE sometime this year, I think the bond market will anticipate and start going up on its own"
So I have to sell my us bond fund now!!! |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
07-Jun-2013 11:54
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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4 Sectors to Buy on a PullbackFour sectors offer long-term growth potential, Alison Deans of Varick Asset Management said Thursday. " My feeling is there will be a leadership change," she said. " As we start to see the economy pick up, corporations are going to start reinvesting capital, consumers are going to start spending more money, so, I think those industries are more economically sensitive." On CNBC's " Fast Money," Deans cautioned that stocks could still see a 10% correction in the near term, but added that the long-term fundamentals were solid for a continued upward move. Her top sector picks included:
Deans said that those sectors were worth buying on a pullback. While she didn't expect the Federal Reserve to taper its QE until next year, Deans also said that the market could signal at what point it will happen. " Even if Fed doesn't stop QE sometime this year, I think the bond market will anticipate and start going up on its own, almost leading the Fed into stopping QE," she added. " So, I think you need a little bit of a backup, and that could make the economy pause, but I think there's enough going on in the employment trend for you to see real economic growth pickup next year." .... |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
07-Jun-2013 11:27
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Beware the dead-cat bounceBy Thomas H. Kee Jr.
This market is under pressure for a reason. Mid-term, downward-sloping
channels have developed, and my longer-term macroeconomic analysis which
is called the Investment Rate, tells us that we are in the third major
down period in U.S. history. The asset bubble we have all been witness
to may be beginning to burst. And based on the current market action,
dead-cat bounces are possible.
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
07-Jun-2013 09:21
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Get Your Stock ‘Buy’ List Ready: ProThere's no reason to buy stocks ahead of this week's employment report, but get ready for a market upturn, Stephen Weiss of Short Hills Capital said Thursday. " So the best posture right now, people think, and I don't disagree is stay on the sidelines, took a little risk off," he said. " And I've got my 'buy' list, though, because I do believe it turns." Midday, the S& P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both broke below their 50-day moving averages. On CNBC's " Fast Money," Weiss added that there was " too much uncertainty" to be a buyer, from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report due on Friday, as well as from Europe. But Weiss also downplayed the decline in the market. " We haven't seen a huge selloff," he added. Josh Brown of Fusion Analytics said that there was no reason to be a buyer of stocks here. " First of all, what's the rush? Most people who are running money are sitting on plus-10% returns," he said. Brown also cited the uncertainty of the upcoming employment report. " Why would anyone want to make a huge bet in front of that?" he said. " Who needs to, other than people who've been trailing this rally?" Brown said that a 4% correction and failing rallies were expected. " I actually think that's the responsible stance," he added. .... |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
07-Jun-2013 08:43
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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MarketWatch: You have worked with some of the most elite financial firms on Wall Street. How has it changed since before you started the Ponzi scheme? Bernard Madoff: The individual investor is the last person that has any information. The average investor is coming up against professional financial firms, hedge funds and the professional trader, and it’s easy to be scared out of the market. MW: Hedge funds are playing a bigger and bigger role in the market, but you point out that they might scare individual investors away. B.M.: Hedge funds are a danger to the market and need to be registered. A major flaw on Wall Street is exempting hedge funds from being registered if they contain less than $100 million. We didn’t register with the SEC until 2006 as an investment adviser. From 2006 to 2008, when I was caught, I never had an investment adviser inspection by the SEC. They are supposed to do it every two years. If I had an inspection, I would have been caught sooner. MW: Where do the big accounting firms fit in? B.M.: Accounting firms should audit other accounting firms. Everyone should require that accounting firms check on their peers, which would make sure audits were done properly. But these firms use the excuse of competition [to avoid supervision]. If accounting firms keep each other in check, a proper audit would uncover most of the fraud that exists — including my own fraud. MW: What if the firm says an investment is too complicated to understand? B.M.: Wall Street is not that complicated. If you ask an average hedge fund or investment firm how they make their money, they won’t tell you. Most people think it’s too complicated and they can’t understand it. You should ask good questions, and, if you don’t understand something, have your accountant ask questions. If you don’t understand something, then don’t invest in it. MW: How should an individual investor get to know Wall Street and how it works? B.M.: Read good books. You have to educate yourself on the market. People are very gullible. Scamming investors has been going on since the beginning of time, and I don’t think it’s going to end. Use a qualified adviser. There used to be registered advisers that were educated and qualified on different financial investments. We don’t have that anymore. The biggest danger is when advisers have incentives to steer investors one way or another to get a bigger paycheck, which can happen. MW: Your customers were given consistent, good returns for years. No one realized it was a Ponzi scheme until the financial crisis and clients demanded their money back. How can investors detect fraud like that? B.M.: If it sounds too good to be true, it is. ...full article... |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
07-Jun-2013 08:17
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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U.S. stocks rebound after choppy sessionNEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks ended higher on Thursday, snapping a two-session losing streak, as investors eagerly awaited Friday’s May employment report for clues about monetary policy. Trading was very choppy during Thursday’s session, with stocks moving in and out of positive territory multiple times. In the afternoon, stocks fell to session lows only to rebound and finish at their intraday highs. After dropping as much as 116.37 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 80.03 points, or 0.5%, to end at 15,040.62. The S& P 500 index rose 13.66 points, or 0.9%, to end at 1,622.56, with telecommunications the top gainer among its 10 major industry groups, all of which finished in positive terrain. The Nasdaq Composite index gained 22.58 points, or 0.7%, to finish at 3,424.05. The Labor Department’s jobs report is slated to be released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time Friday. Economists polled by MarketWatch expect a rise of 164,000 in nonfarm payrolls and an unchanged jobless rate of 7.5%. Speculation about the jobs report caused a considerable amount of jitters in the market on Thursday. Traders are watching labor-market data closely for any clues as to when the Federal Reserve may begin to scale back, or “taper,” its $85-billion-a-month bond-buying program, which has supported equity prices. .... |
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tanzq83
Member |
06-Jun-2013 23:10
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I feel that this is a very good report and reflect very well of retail investors. It takes a big-hearted person to be able to trade wisely. Greed and Fear are the 2 things which are always tangling in the mind of a small-time retail investor, sometimes even big ones are the same as well. Probably what differentiate between making good stable money in the market and panic, kiasu people is that when fund managers trade, they probably trade with less fear (as they don't invest their personal money themselves) whereas small-time retail investors plough in their own money. When greed kicks in, they overly leverage and buy to big and when the market correct, they so-call 'panic-sell to protect their wealth'. yes, you may end loads of money in the bull market, but most, if not all of them usually lose in a bear market (just the brokerage fee is enough to cost a bomb). It is therefore important to enter at a good price and leave the worries to others. If market corrects, be confident and don't look back since fundamental of that company doesn't change. You are an investor not gambler. In fact I actually like the current market condition now.. because all the panic people gan-cheonging liquidate their positions at this time, where I can slowly cherry pick.. Im not predicting, but I believe technically markets are generally oversold now and will correct upwards in the next 1-2 weeks. By the end of the year, dow jones and all markets will be higher than its current level now. Just my 2-cents worth.
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
06-Jun-2013 22:47
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Retail investor outgunned by speed traders: Herula....Herula, an ex-stockbroker and hedge-fund manager who lost his securities licenses and is serving 16 years for defrauding a member of the Coors beer brewing family and others out of “substantially” more than $15 million. Herula spoke with MarketWatch from a federal prison in Edgefield, S.C. He discussed his motivation for stealing — pure greed — and why he thinks insider-trading laws aren’t effective. The 65-year-old, whose prison term is set to end in January 2017, explains how he used his ill-gotten gains to buy an expensive car, costly homes and expensive jewels for his wife. Here’s what he had to say: Q: Are the markets fair for retail investors, particularly with the advent of computerized high-speed traders? A: A computer does not have to stop and think while individual investors trade on emotion and fear. You are going to lose. The markets aren’t fair to retail investors, particularly with the advent of computerized high-speed traders as competition. It’s like fighting a war with spears against the Air Force. I’ve watched a stock go down and, in reality, if nothing has changed fundamentally about the company you should hang on to it. However, most retail investors sell it at the bottom. Also, since volume influences price movement, the small investor’s order of 100 or 1,000 shares means little. However, a large hedge fund with big block orders of several thousands of shares can move prices up or down in just seconds. Their sell/buy programs can detrimentally change the face of a small investor’s portfolio faster than the small investor can react to the price movement. Q: The AP Twitter hack — when the U.S. stock market briefly plunged after a fake tweet that appeared on the Associated Press feed — has once again raised concerns about fairness in the markets. Do you think that high-speed traders make money during these mini-crashes while retail investors lose? A: For small investors the risk of having a “stop-loss” order executed during a “flash crash” or “hack crash” is very real. Simply put, a stop-loss order is an order to sell a stock at a price below the current market price for the purposes of protecting a profit or limiting a loss. However, in a “panic-selling,” when the market is taking a tumble, the stop-loss price can be reached, triggering the next sale which could be much lower than the stop-loss price, ensuring the investor a much larger loss or price than anticipated. If a small investor hears about the crash he or she may panic and sell at a very low price even without a stop-loss. “Panic” is the key word in a flash crash. A computerized trading system doesn’t panic, it buys and sells without concern for any consequences. ... |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
06-Jun-2013 08:09
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Dow, S& P 500 dive on rising interest ratesNEW YORK — The Dow Jones industrial average plunged 217 points Wednesday, putting the benchmark index below 15,000 for the first time in a month. Investors -- unnerved by mortgage rates that topped 4% for the first time in a year and economic reports suggesting the economy isn't growing as fast as it was in April -- are fleeing stocks and jumping into government bonds. The Dow fell 1.4%, or 216.95 points, to close at 14,960.59. The broader S& P's 500 index fell 22.48 points, 1.4%, to 1,608.90, and the Nasdaq composite index dropped 43.78 points, 1.3%, to 3,401.48. The two-day stock slide that started Tuesday is mostly due to fresh incoming data on private job creation, factory orders and continued angst over when the Federal Reserve might be willing to pull back on its market-friendly stimulus. ...more... |
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