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Sembcorp Ind
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SYT888
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11-Mar-2007 22:33
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thanks ace6868 for the book recommendation. hi shplayer, I took a while to digest what you wrote. Got a rough idea. Can I said Sembcorp not such a good buy from your analysis? To answer your questions. I would like to make decent gains of 20% & above from Capital gains and as for dividend yield more than 6%. Investment timeframe for fundamental stocks 6mths to 12 mths or 18mths. Not sure what is defensive play? I assume you mean fundamental stocks? Or can pls explain. For volatile stock stocks, 2weeks to 3mths. Yes, please recommend me stocks. Thanks However, with such a market, do you think that it is wise to enter now because I am concern is the correction really over although the market did rebound a bit end last week. |
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shplayer
Elite |
11-Mar-2007 19:35
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SYT888, If may ask, what are you hoping to achieve with your stock investments? What sort of returns - capital gains, divident yield? What is your investment timeframe? Are you looking for defensive or more volatile stocks? With this info, perhaps I can suggest some counters for you to consider. |
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ace6868
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11-Mar-2007 19:29
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SYT888, I reommend that you do some reading up to have a basic understanding of Stocks before investing. Try "Handbook for Stock Investors" by Goh Kheng Chuan. It is by a local guy, and suited for S'pore context. It is very easy to read & understand. I used this book a few years ago to start off with the basics. It was 1st published in 1993, but there are later updated versions, with the latest Revised Edition in Nov 2006. Saw it recently in Borders, costs about $18/-. |
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shplayer
Elite |
11-Mar-2007 19:11
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SYT888, Sorry, was it the terminlogy that you didn't understand? If so, perhaps this will help: CD = cum divident...i.e divident declared but not paid.....if you buy the stock now, you are eligible for the divident. FY2006 = Financil year 2006 eps = earnings per share i.e. net profit/number of issued share. P/E = price to earnings ratio....share price/eps...expressed as times(X). divvy = divident Yield = divident/share price...expressed as %. Hope this helps. |
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SYT888
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11-Mar-2007 01:14
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thanks shplayer but I new to investment and a layman, I don't quite understand what you trying to drive at. Pls be patient with me. Can you make it simpler for me to make my own decision? Pasieh. |
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shplayer
Elite |
11-Mar-2007 01:04
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SYT888, What does SYT stand for??...Sweet Young Thing?? he he he...just kidding. OK, now for the serious stuff. SCI has a CD of 28cts (after of tax). So, based on last closing price of $4.52, your cost is 4.52 - 0.28 = 4.24. FY2006 eps was 58.51cts (incl EI) and 21.57cts (excl EI). P/E is 7.72X(incl EI) and 20.96X (excl EI). Forward 2007 estimated eps (operational) is between 24cts to 26.5 cts....lets take somewhere in between ...25cts. Therefore, at 4.52, you are effectively buying at forward P/E of (4.24/0.25) = 17X. There is a possibility that the 2007 eps may be higher from non recurring divestment income.....industrial parks, Gallant Ventures stakes....etc. If this happens, eps will definitely improve, so will the divvy. F 2006 divvy/cap reduction yield is 15 + 28 = 43 cts. giving it a yield of 0.43/4.52 *100 = 9.5%. This is very decent yield but I doubt this will be repeated for FY2007. If there is no divestment, I estimate 2007 divvy will be about 15cts...giving a yield of 0.15/4.24 = 3.5%. Currently, SCI has 2 main income stream....marine (SCM) and utilities. Marine has order books filled for deliveries into 2010. Utilities is a growth area....UK, Spore, Vietnam, ME and China. The contribution from the Enviroment business is currently insignificant...2006 was dragged down by its writedowns...so 2007 should be better.......but their new business model (waste to energy...vs previously garbage collection) is yet to be proven. As for timing and price to enter, you need to make your own decision. However, I hope the above gives you some basic info to make your assessment. Suggest you also refer to SCI website for more info. |
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SYT888
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11-Mar-2007 00:09
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I am new to investment and would like to buy into this counter, can I know is it a good price to enter now and what is the target price for this counter according to all the experienced investors out there? Pls help. As with the correction, I no longer sure is it now safe to enter at this price given the uncertainty of the market although this is a very good counter. Thanks |
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Sporeguy
Elite |
10-Mar-2007 23:42
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Bought $4.40 on 05/03. sold at 50% retracement at $4.54 on 09/03. Did not wait for 61.8% retacement bcos it is weekend. This is just to test market. |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
08-Mar-2007 20:44
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Remain cautious on this one.... its probably still on a TA downtrend |
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stevenkoh1981
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07-Mar-2007 23:22
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tks Sifu, I am still very fresh n new. So need all the sifu help |
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shplayer
Elite |
07-Mar-2007 22:08
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stevenkoh1981, From the FA point of view, the P/E has already priced in 2007 earnings......there is a divvy of 28cts (net of tax)....Xd on 25 Apr. So, price will be supported till XD. If you are looking at taking a plunge, I suggest you take your time and buy on dips. You may also want to refer to various posts on or around 21 Feb in this thread. |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
07-Mar-2007 21:39
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Semb Corp seems to be on a slow downtrend now. |
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shplayer
Elite |
22-Feb-2007 23:02
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Sporeguy, Thanks.....in fact in first half 2006, I liquidated all my SembMar and focused on SembCorp (SCI). On hindsight, my hunch paid off. Its the same analysis as UIC/SpLand. Due to shareholding structure, whatever benefits SpLand, will also benefit UIC but the converse is not the case. So, whatever benefits SembMar benefits SCI |
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Sporeguy
Elite |
22-Feb-2007 22:47
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Taking a PE of 22.2x, TP will be $5.33 |
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Sporeguy
Elite |
22-Feb-2007 22:30
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Quite safe to say that the support is at $4.33. Last ht was $4.78 (calculated TP was $4.73). Next ht could be $5.48. In fact the 50 MA & 100 MA for SembCorp is more steady than SembMar. |
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shplayer
Elite |
22-Feb-2007 11:20
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Same trend as yesterday.....at 4.66 and above, there are more BU than SD. At 4.62 and 4.64, more SD than BU. Overall, more BU than SD. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
21-Feb-2007 18:31
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not sure when the actual report was given, but it's in the analyst report sent to me by my broker, dated today. |
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shplayer
Elite |
21-Feb-2007 18:22
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Elf, tks. Based on DBSVB fair value of 5.15, (when was report dated?), current price of 4.66 is 10.5% below this target + got 28 cts net divvy coming.....so my target is between 5.15 to 5.20 (CD) and 4.90 (XD)....that will leave about 5% for others to make....he he... |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
21-Feb-2007 18:06
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eep. PE ratio seems high, esp since foward is being used already. looks as tho it's fully valued? if we were to use your figures: assume a simple average gives 'fair value' at 5.55. Take lower end for PE of 22x = 5.28. tech: if we take abt june 13th to dec 15 as 1st wave, then fibo gives next target at 5.3. sporeguy...would like your opinion on support/resistant level? the following from DBSVB: SembCorp Industries Marine will drive earnings in 2007 Ø Story: FY06 results were higher than our estimates due to higher contribution from 'Others' segment as a result of better income from industrial parks and land sales. The key utilities division was in line with our forecast. Ø Point:Net profit, ex EI, rose 36% to S$347m led by Marine (+76% to S$129m) and Utilities ex SMOE (+18% to S$201m). Ø Relevance:We expect SembCorp Marine a deliver another strong performance in FY07, underpinned by its record order book of S$7.1bn and six jackups that will be delivered this year. Utilities will continue on its stable growth path. SCI's target price revised to S$5.15 taking into account the higher target price for SMM (to S$4.50 from S$4.08) . Our target price for SCI is S$5.15. Maintain Hold. ---------- all in all, it dovetails to btwn 5.15 to 5.3 as estimated target? |
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shplayer
Elite |
21-Feb-2007 17:48
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elf, Don't usually look at analysts 'fair' targets; but, lets look at it theoretically. SembMar tgt is 4.50. My est of FY 07 eps (before EI) is between 15 cts to 18 cts. So, at 4.50, P/E is between 25X to 30X. I think this is pretty expensive,,,,,despite the strong order books. At current price (today's closing 3.64) SembMar is currently trading at fwd P/E of between 20X to 24X. As for SCI, my est FY07 eps (before EI) is between 24.0 to 26.5 cts. Note that SCI currently has 2 engines of growth...Marine and Utlities, and applying current P/E of SembMar P/E Fair Value 20X 4.80 to 5.30 24X 5.76 to 6.36 Just my personnal view. |
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