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Rubber prices
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Stockking
Master |
02-Mar-2008 00:12
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oh my god...GMG profit after tax plunged -44.9%!!! |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
29-Feb-2008 22:47
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Rubber futures on TOCOM regained strength Fri afternoon on record crude oil prices, wiping out the losses in the morning session. The most distant Aug '08 contract traded at 305 yen per kg at 3:45 pm Tokyo time, up 0.6 yen from Thu, after sinking to a new lifetime low of 300.5 yen in mid-morning. Oil hit a new high above US$103 on Fri after Ecuador shut a key export pipeline and a fire hit a major European natural gas plant, and the U.S. dollar's decline to a succession of lows kept fresh funds flowing in. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
28-Feb-2008 23:57
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Tokyo rubber futures fell on Thu, a day after oil prices topped US$102 a barrel, an all-time high, spurring fund selling. The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for Aug delivery fell 8.3 yen to end at 303.9 yen per kg at 3:45 pm Tokyo time. U.S. crude oil prices hovered near US$100 per barrel after having fallen back from a record US$102.08 on Wed. TOCOM prices could fall a little further towards strong support at 300 yen, dealers said. "I see a support level at 300 yen as falling supply should prevent prices from falling sharply," one dealer said. In the physical market, rubber prices slipped, tracking falls on TOCOM. Physical trade was likely to be busier as lower prices induced tyremakers to buy, traders said. "It's like a tradition that buyers come back when they see a TOCOM correction," one said. In Indonesia, supply rose slightly as rain subsided in some areas, allowing farmers to tap, but some shipments had been delayed, an Indonesian trader said. "The delay was not caused by tight supply. It's because producers could not round up rubber at high prices to fill the orders they had committed to at low prices," he said. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
27-Feb-2008 19:50
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Tokyo rubber futures came under renewed selling Wed afternoon, a day after U.S. crude oil prices jumped to a new record above US$101 a barrel, giving up all of the morning gains. The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for Aug delivery fell 1.2 yen to end at 311 yen per kg (3:45 pm Tokyo time) after slipping back from a session high 318.7 yen. The Aug contract slipped far below 310 yen, sinking to a new lifetime low of 306.2 yen. The price of oil, which helps dictate rubber's direction, surged as a spate of weak U.S. economic data drove the dollar to record lows against the euro, sparking a broad-based commodities rally. U.S. crude rose 33 US cents to US$101.21 after having vaulted to a record peak of US$101.43 a barrel. Japan's crude rubber stocks were up about 14% at 12,385 tonnes on Feb 20, Rubber Trade Association of Japan data showed on Tue, but that was low compared to a year earlier. In the physical market, rubber prices were quoted higher, tracking TOCOM. Trading was active with several buyers buying enough to keep their operations going in hopes of holding off big purchases long enough for prices to fall, traders said. "They realised that prices won't drop as there was no further corrective phase on TOCOM and supply was tight so they had to buy, but in small lots to keep their operations running," one trader said. Chinese buyers, the world biggest buyers, were in the market asking to buy Thai RSS3, but producers were reluctant to sell, traders said. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
27-Feb-2008 12:52
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China's natural rubber output is expected to rise more than 8% to 650,000 tonnes in 2008 as private plantations expand, a senior industry official said on 26/2. China, the world's top rubber consumer, is also forecast to produce 780,000 tonnes of natural rubber in 2010, up 30% from about 600,000 tonnes last year, said Fan Rende, secretary general of the China Rubber Industry Association. "The growth will mainly come from expanding acreage and growing production from privately owned rubber plantations and producers," Fan told a conference in the city of Kunming, in southwestern province of Yunnan. Fan said private plantations would produce more if they improve their technology and management. Despite higher domestic production, China's rubber imports are also projected to rise this year because of growth in the country's tyre manufacturing industry, Fan said. China will need to import 1.9 million tonnes of natural rubber this year, a rise of 9 percent, due to expected 15 percent growth in tyre manufacturing, the China Rubber Industry Association forecast. [ID:nPEK13537] Imported rubber would continue to be competitive on both quality and price, somewhat limiting the scope for expansion by domestic plantations, Fan said. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
26-Feb-2008 21:42
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Tokyo rubber futures fell more than 1% on Tue as daytraders took profits after seeing oil prices lacked the momentum to rise toward US$100 a barrel. The newly listed benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for Aug delivery ended at 315.9 yen per kg (3.45 pm Tokyo time), below its opening price of 324.2 yen. The former benchmark Jul contract fell 6.9 yen to 312.9 yen per kg. However TOCOM prices, as well as oil prices, were not expected to fall sharply, with 315 yen likely to prove a strong support, dealers said. "I think TOCOM prices should not fall much lower if oil prices stay above US$99 a barrel," one dealer said. In industry-related news, tens of thousands of rubber trees in Yunnan Province, China's second-largest rubber producing area, have been infected with powdery mildew, potentially reducing output at the start of the tapping season. On the physical front, rubber prices were quoted lower, tracking falls on TOCOM. But trading remained thin, with only a few key tyremakers buying small lots to keep their operations running, traders said. "Other buyers, including China, are not satisfied with these prices. They're waiting for much cheaper prices," a trader in Thailand's Hat Yai rubber centre said. However, physical prices were not likely to fall significantly over the next few weeks due to tight supply as farmers in Thailand and Malaysia stopped tapping during the dry season. In Indonesia, supplies have been reduced by seasonal rains, resulting in high prices. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
25-Feb-2008 19:55
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TOCOM rubber futures gained as an increase in crude oil prices added to production costs for competing synthetic rubber. Crude oil traded above US$99 a barrel in New York after rising last week on concern a military assault by Turkey into northern Iraq may destabilize OPEC's 6th-largest oil producer. Synthetic rubber is made from naphtha, distilled from crude oil. Both synthetic and natural rubber are used to make vehicle tyres. Rubber for Jul delivery added as much as 4.4 yen, or 1.4%, to 320.4 yen a kilogram (US$2,981 a metric ton) on TOCOM. The most-active contract closed at 319.8 yen. Futures were also supported by signs output in Thailand, the world's largest producer and exporter, will fall. Wintering, or the low production period, has started in almost all the plantations in Thailand as rubber trees shed leaves and workers reduce tapping. Crude rubber stockpiles held at Japanese warehouses fell 6.8% to 10,864 metric tons as of Feb 10, the lowest since the end of Dec, data from the Rubber Trade Association of Japan showed on Feb 22. In China, rubber stockpiles, based on a survey of 10 warehouses in Shanghai, Shandong, Yunnan, Hainan and Tianjin, declined 1,650 tons to 92,100 tons last week from the previous week, the Shanghai Futures Exchange said Feb 22. May-delivery rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the most-active contract, rose 0.2% to close at 24,625 yuan (US$3,447) a ton, after trading as high as 24,885 yuan. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
25-Feb-2008 13:20
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China will need to import 1.9 million tonnes of NR this year, a rise of 9% thanks to a forecast 15% growth in tyre manufacturing, the China Rubber Industry Association forecast. In 2008, China will produce 360 million tyres, up from 330 million last year, secretary general Fan Rende predicted, according to the text of a speech to be given on 26/2. That will also require more SR. Imports of that product could reach 1.65 million tonnes, a rise of 10%, Fan said. The association estimates 2007 imports of NR at 1.75 million tonnes, and 2007 imports of SR at 1.5 million tonnes, slightly higher than figures given by the China Customs Administration. It did not provide an explanation for the difference, which may be due to different ways of accounting for compound rubber, a mix of synthetic and natural rubber that carries lower import taxes than natural rubber. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
22-Feb-2008 19:41
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Rubber futures on TOCOM lacked vigor Fri with a late morning rebound snapped by renewed selling. The benchmark, most distant Jul '08 contract traded at 317.7 yen per kg at 3:45 p.m., down 2.3 yen from the previous day. |
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andrewpkyap
Member |
22-Feb-2008 12:08
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The biggest exporter in Thailand claimed that they have run out of funds to buy rubber from the middle-men, citing ample stocks and lack of demand from China due to sufficient stocks in China. While the prices set in TOCOM do affect prices, the prices there are mainly speculative and financial considerations driven rather than based on actual demand and supply situations. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
21-Feb-2008 20:52
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Rubber futures on TOCOM continued a strong rebound Thu afternoon, soaring on strong crude oil and gold prices. The benchmark, most distant Jul '08 contract climbed 12.6 yen from Wed to 319.6 yen per kg at 3:45 p.m Tokyo time. Crude oil rose above US$101 a barrel. Will we see rubber futures move toward the 27-year high of 324.5 yen? Possible. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
21-Feb-2008 00:39
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Rubber futures on TOCOM remained at moderately higher ground Wed. The benchmark, most distant Jul '08 contract traded at 316.3 yen per kig at 3:45 p.m Tokyo time., up 1.3 yen from Tue, after rising to a new lifetime high of 321.7 yen in early trading. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
19-Feb-2008 22:53
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GMG looks set to reach or break $0.18. Tokyo rubber futures jumped more than 2% to an 8-month high on Tue as higher energy prices and a weak Japanese yen encouraged buying, pushing the key contract above the psychological level of 310 yen. The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for Jul delivery rose 6.7 yen to end at 315 yen per kg, the highest since Jun 12 '06. Lingering supply concerns provided some support, with production in Thailand expected to fall as farmers have stopped tapping during the dry winter season, when trees shed their leaves and stop producing latex. Similar dry-season concerns have hit supply in Malaysia. In Indonesia, the problem was too much rain. "Strong oil prices and other positive factors are supporting rubber, but there are uncertainties about the outlook for the market," said Hisaaki Tasaka, an analyst at Ace Koeki in Tokyo. "There are concerns about supplies, but at the same time we are not sure demand from consumers like China will stay strong because we are seeing inventories piling up there," he said. TOCOM rubber prices could move toward the 27-year high of 324.5 yen -- a high reached on Jun 13 '06 -- if there was a sustained break above 313.3 yen, traders said, citing technical charts. TOCOM may find psychological resistance at 320 yen in the short term, although a breach of that level will likely pave the way for further strong gains in the weeks ahead, said a trader in Tokyo. Rubber received support as the yen weakened and U.S. crude oil futures steadied above US$96 a barrel on Tue. In the physical market, rubber prices were quoted higher, supported by limited supply and rising Tokyo futures. Trading was thin with only a few tyremakers seeking rubber to replenish falling stocks, while China, the world's biggest buyer, was still waiting for prices to drop, traders said. "Only a few buyers kept buying, but they bought small lots," a Malaysian trader said. Asian cash rubber prices were higher in active trade with consumers keen to secure stocks despite the current highs, amid growing sentiment that prices will move higher in the coming weeks, traders said. "Consumers don't particularly want to buy at these levels, and they have been holding off in the hope of a correction. But with Tocom looking bullish and production likely to fall further in the weeks ahead as wintering takes hold, we're likely to see physical prices supported around these levels," said a trader in Singapore. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
19-Feb-2008 12:47
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Thailand's rubber production may rise 4.8% to 3.25 million tonnes in 2009 despite erratic weather and separatist violence in the country's southern provinces, a senior industry official said. "In 2010, production should be above 3.3 million tonnes because of new plants," Thai Rubber Association president Luckchai Kittipol told Reuters on the sidelines of an industry gathering late on 15/2. "I think it's possible that production will reach 3.1 million tonnes in 2008. We hope but it depends on the weather," said Kittipol, adding that there were additional 120,000 hectares of plantations from 2005 to 2007 under a government project. Thailand, the world's largest producer, made 3.0 million tonnes of rubber in 2007, according to the Agriculture Ministry. Thailand has seen rubber acreage grow 26% between 1997 and 2006. It has also opened new plantations, mostly in the northeast, which are expected to start production in a few years. "We have areas increasing in the northeast and the east but in the south, they are decreasing year by year because of a shortage in labour," said Kittipol. Some farmers have also shifted to growing palm oil, whose prices roared to record high above US$1,000 a tonne, but new plantations were likely to prevent rubber output from falling, he said. Thailand's rubber production has been hit by both heavy rains and dry spells, labour shortages and separatist violence in the 3 provinces in the south, which produce nearly 10% of output. More than 2,800 people have been killed in 4 years of separatist insurgency. Thailand mainly exports rubber to China, which is the world's largest consumer. Rubber is used in making tyres, gloves and condoms. Kittipol said Thailand's rubber exports could increase to 2.95 million tonnes in 2008, up only slightly from the 2.90 million tonnes estimated in 2007 because of an increase in domestic consumption and as local tyre makers boosted output. "(Domestic) consumption was about 350,000 tonnes in 2007. We forecast, this year's should be about 400,000 tonnes," he said. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
18-Feb-2008 22:05
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Toyko rubber futures slipped on Monday after failing to stay above the key psychological level of 310 yen last week, but tight supplies offered some support. The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for Jul delivery rose 3 yen to end at 308.3 yen per kg. The key rubber contract hit a high of 310.8 yen on Feb 12, but struggled to stay above 310 yen last week. Supply concerns, bullish oil prices and a weaker yen should encourage buying, traders said, but the market lacked momentum because investment funds were reluctant to build up large positions. "Technical sentiment deteriorated after prices failed to break through 310 yen, but I don't expect TOCOM to fall sharply because tight supply should be supportive," one dealer said. In Thailand, farmers have stopped tapping during the dry winter season, when trees shed their leaves and stop producing latex. Rains have reduced output in Indonesia. Supply in Malaysia also fell as farmers gradually stop tapping as rubber trees produce less latex due to the dry weather. On the physical front, rubber prices were quoted mostly higher in thin trade as tight supplies offset a weaker TOCOM market. Buyers were expected to seek rubber this week and next for delivery against futures contracts due to expire by the last week of Feb, traders said. With Chinese rubber supplies dwindling, it was expected to return to the market next week, one dealer said. Physical prices were expected to stay firm over the next few weeks with unfavourable weather cutting supply in major producing countries -- Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
18-Feb-2008 12:54
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Indonesia will overtake Thailand as the world's biggest rubber producer in 2015, 5 years earlier than expected, due to higher productivity and new plantations, a senior Indonesian industry official said. "Indonesia's production will surpass that of Thailand in 2015 because of better production growth," Suharto Honggokusumo, executive director of Indonesia Rubber Association, told Reuters on the sidelines of an industry gathering late on 15/2. "Growth in Indonesia will be an average of 5 to 6% a year starting from 2008. Production will reach 3.8 million tonnes in 2015. Thailand's growth is estimated at only 2 to 3 % in average. Production will reach 3.75 million tonnes in 2015," he said. Indonesia produced nearly 2.8 million tonnes of rubber in 2007 and is on track to boost production because of higher productivity, better prices and steady demand for the commodity used in tyres, gloves and condoms, he said. "Productivity was very low at below 700 kg per hectare per year before 2002. It went up to 979 in 2007. Growth in Thailand is slow because of weather problems and unrest in the south," he said. "Global demand is good, that's why the price is also good. Farmers are still happy to take care of their plantations," he said. Indonesia, which churned out around 2.6 million tonnes of rubber in 2006, is replanting 250,000 hectares (617,800 acres) of old smallholders' rubber plantations and will add 50,000 hectares of new smallholders plantation per year until 2010. International prices have rebounded sharply since hitting 30-year lows in 2001 after main producers Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia decided to curb output to push up prices. Indonesia has been expected to overtake Thailand as the world's biggest natural rubber producer in 2020 by nearly doubling its natural rubber output to 4.12 million tonnes. But Thailand's rubber production has been hit by erratic weather, labour shortages and separatist violence in the 3 provinces in the south, which produce nearly 10% of the 3 million tonnes of the country's annual output. More than 2,800 people have been killed in 4 years of separatist insurgency. Indonesia's rubber exports, mainly to the United States, Japan and China, were estimated at 2.4 million tonnes in 2007 but this year's exports could be smaller due to higher domestic consumption, said Honggokusumo. "Domestic consumption is fairly big. It reached around 390,000 tonnes in 2007. In 2008, local consumption is still healthy and we may see growth of around 10%," he said, adding that domestic intake stood around 355,000 tonnes in 2006. Demand from Indonesia's auto industry was strong, fed by economic growth at 6.3% in 2007, an 11-year high, Honggokusumo added. Global rubber consumption is forecast to grow 2.7% this year after rising 5.7% in 2007 -- the fastest in 3 years on growing demand in key markets, the International Rubber Study Group earlier this month. Global synthetic rubber consumption was estimated to have increased by 6% to 13.19 million tonnes in 2007, while natural rubber consumption rose by 5.4 percent to 9.71 million tonnes. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
16-Feb-2008 01:47
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Tokyo rubber futures edged lower on Fri, with traders keen to square their positions ahead of the weekend after the benchmark contract struggled to stay above 310 yen this week. The TOCOM contract for Jul delivery fell 2.7 yen, or 0.4%, to end at 305.3 yen per kg. The contract reached a session high of 309.5 yen, just shy of the key level of 310 yen, after hitting 310.8 on Tue and 310.0 on Thu. Concerns about falling supply and buoyant energy prices did offer some support to the market. TOCOM is likely to find immediate support at 305 yen and strong support at 300 yen in the coming sessions, although fresh bullish news is needed to drive prices through the 310 yen resistance level, a trader in Tokyo said. Crude oil rose to a 5-week high as the dollar dropped against the euro, prompting investors to buy energy and metals futures as an inflation hedge. The dollar is heading for the biggest weekly loss against the euro this year after a report showed New York manufacturing contracted. Signs of an economic slowdown and falling U.S. interest rates have prompted the dollar's decline. Traders purchase commodities as protection against rising inflation. "Dollar weakness is fueling a commodity rally," said Tom Bentz, a broker at BNP Paribas in New York. "Most of the recent economic data has been negative and one would think it would stall the crude rally, but it hasn't." Crude oil for Mar delivery rose US$1.03, or 1.1%, to US$96.49 a barrel at 9:58 a.m. Fri on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures reached US$96.67, the highest since Jan 9. Firmer energy prices tend to help rubber as they prompt a shift to natural rubber from synthetic rubber -- a petrochemical product. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, rubber futures settled down, tracking losses in Tocom rubber. "The consolidation might continue for some time, but I'm quite optimistic about the price outlook," Lin Hui, an analyst with Orient Securities Futures, said. "The unusually cold winter could hurt rubber production in Hainan and Yunnan provinces this year, although there has been no official report yet," Lin added. Asian cash rubber prices were little changed in very thin trade, despite the decline on the influential Tocom, as the current thin supply situation continued to lend support, traders said. Many dealers and industry officials were absent today on account of Fri night's annual Rubber Trade Association dinner in S'pore, which was another reason for light trade, a trader said. Supply has been falling in several rubber-producing countries, including Thailand where farmers usually stop tapping by late Feb when rubber leaves fall and trees stop producing latex due to dry weather. "Around 50-60% of our production has fallen because most farmers have stopped tapping," a trader in Thailand's Hat Yai rubber centre said. Farmers in Thailand and Malaysia usually resume tapping in Apr when new rubber leaves flourish. In Indonesia, supplies have been reduced by seasonal rains, forcing producers to postpone shipments for a few weeks. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
14-Feb-2008 23:47
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Asian rubber futures settled mostly higher Thu, as rising raw material prices in key producing countries and strong gains in precious metals futures triggered fresh buying and short-covering, traders said. On TOCOM, rubber futures settled up but off the intraday high after the benchmark contract found strong resistance at 310 yen, said a trader in Tokyo. Tocom's benchmark RSS3 contract settled 4.3 yen higher at 308 yen a kg. A weaker yen and gains in other commodities - notably crude oil and precious metals - lent support, while steady physical markets and rising raw material prices also encouraged buyers, the trader said. However, TOCOM now needs fresh bullish news to drive prices much higher, although a breakthrough of 310 yen is likely to pave the way for a test of the 27-year high of 325 yen reached in 2006, the trader added. Buyers in China - the world's largest consumer - continued to stay on the sidelines, awaiting a correction, while shipments ordered prior to the Lunar New Year holiday continue to arrive in Chinese ports, which is also damping buying interest, said a trader in Singapore. Supply remains thin due to the wintering season in Thailand and Malaysia, and recent rain in Indonesia's plantation regions of Sumatra, but a correction is needed to trigger renewed strong buying interest from end users, he said. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
13-Feb-2008 22:46
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Asian rubber futures settled mostly lower in sluggish, rangebound trade Wed after an early decline in precious metals spurred sellers. However, rising raw material prices due to reduced tapping in the world's 3 main rubber producing countries, and steady crude oil prices, helped limit losses, traders said. On TOCOM, rubber futures settled mostly lower in sluggish, rangebound trade, with the benchmark Jul RSS3 contract settling unchanged from Tue's close at 303.7 yen a kg. Funds opted for the sidelines due to a lack of firm direction, although the market is likely to find strong psychological support at 300 yen on strong fundamentals and steady physical markets due to the onset of the wintering season in Thailand and Malaysia, said a trader in Japan. Meanwhile, news of tight raw material availability in Indonesia, following recent rain-induced production delays, is also likely to lend support to the futures market in the coming sessions, he said. "Overall, the outlook is firm due to the onset of the wintering season and Chinese buyers will likely need to stock up after the long holiday, although I expect they will hold off and monitor the market for a few days first," said a trader in Phuket. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
12-Feb-2008 22:21
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Tokyo rubber futures rose nearly 3% to their highest level in 5 weeks on Tue, bolstered by a jump in crude oil prices. The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for Jul delivery jumped 8.1 yen, or 2.7%, to 305.7 yen per kg at 3.45 pm Tokyo time. The contract earlier rose as high as 310.8 yen, the highest for any benchmark since Jan 4. U.S. oil futures rose more than US$5 a barrel during the past 2 sessions and hit their highest levels in a month on Mon after Venezuela threatened to halt sales to US, the world's biggest oil consumer. At 0242 GMT, Front-month US crude futures for Mar delivery were little changed around US$93.24 a barrel on the Globex electronic trading platform on Tue. The contract reached a high of US$94.72 the previous day. "I think rubber sentiment was lifted up by oil prices and it's possible for TOCOM prices to reach the next resistance of 312 yen," one dealer said, adding that currencies so far had a limited impact on the TOCOM market. In the physical market, rubber prices jumped in line with TOCOM. Trading remained thin despite China, the world's biggest buyer, coming back from a week-long holiday, as higher prices kept buyers on the sidelines, trader said. "But physical prices are not expected to drop as supply is still limited because farmers are going to stop tapping soon," a Thai trader at Hat Yai rubber centre said. Farmers in several provinces along the Andaman coastal areas have stopped tapping, allowing rubber trees to rejuvenate after they had shed their leaves, traders said. "Only farmers who live in the upper south areas keep tapping. I think supply will gradually fall from now on," another trader said. They would resume tapping again in Apr when new rubber leaves flourish, he said. |
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