The research says: Uncertainly leads to recessions



I have studied 16 previous uncertainty shocks – events like 9/11, the Cuban Missile Crisis, the assassination of JFK – and the only certain thing about these is they lead to large short-run recessions (Bloom 2009).

When people are uncertain about the future, they wait and do nothing.
  • Firms do not to hire new employees, or invest in new equipment if they are uncertain about future demand.
  • Consumers do not buy a new car, a new TV, or refurnish their house if they are uncertain about their next paycheck.


The economy grinds to a halt while everyone waits.

Durables are the hardest-hit sectors



These uncertainty shocks hit hardest the sectors that make durables products – those like cars, TVs, and furniture. These are goods that we can wait to replace. These industries typically see massive falls in demand, often of well over 50% as people put off purchasing expensive new goods for another six months.

Based on my research, I predict another short, sharp contraction in late 2011 of about 1%, with a rebound in spring 2012. This research looks at the average impact of the previous 16 uncertainty shocks to predict the impact of future shocks. Typically these leads to reductions of growth of about 2% immediately after the shock, with a recovery about six months later once uncertainty subsides.

Using the same line of reasoning, I correctly predicted a similar recession before the Credit Crunch and conditions look depressingly similar this time around.

And I should point out this research is not all my own work. It builds on the research of a previous Stanford economics professor – Ben Bernanke. This professor published his work in a now forgotten paper called “Irreversibility, Uncertainty and Cyclical Investment” (Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1983). While that paper might be forgotten by most, we can be sure that the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board is not among the forgetful.

References

Alexopoulos, Michelle and Jon Cohen (2008). “Uncertainty and the credit crisis”, VoxEU.org, 23 December.

Bernanke, Ben (1983), “Irreversibility, Uncertainty and Cyclical Investment”, Quarterly Journal of Economics 98(1): 85-106.

Bloom, Nicholas (2008). “Will the credit crunch lead to recession?” VoxEU.org, 4 June.

Bloom, Nick (2009), “The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks”, Econometrica, May 623-685.