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Gaecia
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10-Jul-2011 19:52
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Hieee gd Sun  night ipunter, hav u had dinner?
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Gaecia
Elite |
10-Jul-2011 19:51
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China's inflation hit 6.4%, analysts' forecast was 6.3% across the panel. Did it exceed from forecast by alot? Now, we  won't know if this  was already priced in by the market  given that China's rate hike took place earlier last mid wk instead of over the weekend (Sun)  had  given away  that inflation data isn't  positive.  Bad employment data from the  US, yes was so bad  & its  a miracle  that the market didn't tank  last  Friday. Hahah  I actually  thought it was bullish red candle,  how odd. You see, it doesn't matter how the market looks like at the opening, lunch time or other trading intervals.. the most vital part is in the last 15-30mins to closing.  That is all that matters.    
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iPunter
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10-Jul-2011 19:47
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People can easily turn bullish or bearish from day to day.     Yesterday, they can be downright bearish...             But tomrrow, they can instantly turn bullish.                     This is why the market can 'play people like  fiddle'... |
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Gaecia
Elite |
10-Jul-2011 19:40
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First & foremost, you need to understand the concept of gap down. Pls search candlestick gap down definition on google, investopedia etc. Opening gap down is only if opening price has a gap/ void  from previous trading  day's intraday low.  Assuming in stxosv opens at  1.38 & above, this is effectively  not called gap down => implies lower opening from Friday. Muifan i already mentioned there  can be massive throwing @opening but  why are you so keen to join them especially right at the opening seconds (especially if gap down)?  I already highlighted, you must learn to think and act like my sifu Juicy. She would've loved to buy from those people who will gamely enter forced sell bids to  sell  i can tell ya that. Remember the Noble tutorial and Gsp's dismal earnings last Nov? Gsp  opened at  2.09 came up to 2.16 intraday high within first 10 mins and thereafter is downward action for rest of the day post earnings release. Similarly, roti you said many will gap down tmr. I think that is  misleading, most will open lower but that's not called gap down. ie. only  if Capitaland open's at 2.97 or lower then that's considered gap down opening. Given Fri's long white/ green candle, its hard for it to open with a gap down, yes with a  lower opening. Roti looks like you're undecided, you mentioned on Sat  of having a bullish bias and today turned bearish. Must be due to  mood swings. *chuckles*
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eastcivic
Elite |
10-Jul-2011 16:46
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ya who knows? perhaps  we might really see a double dip? perhaps not? lol nobody knows 
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rotijai
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10-Jul-2011 16:29
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if u ask me.. almost everyone assumes tat the US will fix the debt ceiling thing.. if they dont, i think we can just short short short everyday, cause the economy double dip is almost guarantted cause the US is gonna for default, who can take it? europe debt probs  have been  there for years.. just whether the stock markets wanna focus on it or not..
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eastcivic
Elite |
10-Jul-2011 16:17
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ya you are right about all the bad news that has come out and/or coming out..... besides all these unemployment and inflation rates, we still have to handle the US and europe debt issues.......
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rotijai
Supreme |
10-Jul-2011 16:00
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master civic.. i might be overly bearish atm (i am stil holding longs on gsp n kep - dunno whether my cut loss will be triggered.. sigh i guess i always make stupid mistakes when i long, i think shorting might be more suitable for me..- i know master ipunter will disagree with me on this :P) ok here's the reasons why tmr will gap down.. (whether it will make a white candle or not.. it depends on our BBs are bullish about our earnings.. but i find it real weird tat even big giant like kepcorp which keeps winning contracts and it's almost expected tat kep corp will give a very good earnings.. but they  still keep selling kep corp like nobody's business.. and also look at other STI stocks.. all got sold down as if the next recession is coming to hit SG..) bad unemployment rate from US & high inflation in china... dow has disgested the unemployment data.. STI/HSI/SSE/all the asia markets havent.. and with this new high inflation in china - i dunno how HSI/SSE will react to it.. and yes dow did well by climbing up at the last hours..  cause the earnings are coming.. it's supposed to be a ya ya hooray season where most companies are still producing good numbers (i hope)..
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eastcivic
Elite |
10-Jul-2011 15:39
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so tomorrow all  will gap down? yesterday i thought dow did quite well. |
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rotijai
Supreme |
10-Jul-2011 14:56
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master rice, it's still early to confirm that it's a trap but getting ready for it is good tmr almost all counters will gap down, not only stx.. so we have no idea how much it will react to the placement shares news. ur G friend is inclined to shorting stx only? or the market as a whole? if u ask me, many are gian gian to short stx.. am i right master gaecia? :P i was looking all my accs to see which has scripts for me to short stx when it broke 1.4.. haha coming back to wat price to cut loss.. i think it depends on wat price u entered? ur friend is right that cutting loss tmr might be cutting at a lower price cause many ppl will be panicking throwing stocks tmr.. but at the same time, who can tell wat will happen after tmr? ur friend is assuming tat the market will digest the bad unemployment report and the stx share placement at 1.33 and slowly they will think tat 1.33 is not the fair value.. so it depends on whether u are willing to bet on tat assumption or not and also the 2nd quarter earnings starting from tuesday (for STI, 2nd quarter earnings should start end next week or early next next week when we see all the kep families giving their 2nd quarter earnings)
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iPunter
Supreme |
10-Jul-2011 13:24
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The final result any person's playing stock market play     is determined not by how many good bets or bad bets           he/she have made, but on how the bets were handled.           Thus, a good stock player is one who is not losing                         significant amounts of  money, not how many or                             how few bets he/she makes. As long as no money is                                   lost, that's good play. In this regard, a paper loss                                         is a loss is a loss - it is real, not imagined...        
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muifan
Master |
10-Jul-2011 12:01
Yells: "Take the leap of faith dont regret 20 years later!" |
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Ipunter sifu.. thanks but I am confirm not qualified to be a sifu yet...if not I would have " feared" for the rally and not join in the rally :D... however through this incident... I do understand more...why you always share philosophies.. but   hardly or never share your positions or recommendations...  
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muifan
Master |
10-Jul-2011 11:58
Yells: "Take the leap of faith dont regret 20 years later!" |
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Whahahah...if i am the kuching, i will hug the bird and sleep together... I love birds...especially Owls...
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iPunter
Supreme |
10-Jul-2011 11:20
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Need to sleep late on Sunday morning?     That's impossible with this " burong nakal" (naughty bird)             to " kachau" you non-stop...    Click Here |
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iPunter
Supreme |
10-Jul-2011 10:05
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With sifu Muifan's insightful understanding       as shown in his posts below,           I must also 'tapet' him too.                   Thus in stocks,  all is but betting...
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muifan
Master |
10-Jul-2011 09:42
Yells: "Take the leap of faith dont regret 20 years later!" |
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GOod morning Roti, Yeap will cut at the start at GAP DOWN and will take a 3  cent loss THAT IS IF CHAI SHEN YE is happy to let the    GAP DOWN  not LOWER THAN 1.38 hehe However, there is also the theory of filling the gap mentioned by Master Gaecia... which my MR G friend is in lined with...thus he told me , in his opinion, the better time to cut is Wednesday or Thur, of cos he is not god, he can be wrong too.. what do you think roti?
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rotijai
Supreme |
10-Jul-2011 09:33
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master rice.. stx's twice breakouts from 1.35 dont look like a trap until the news of shares placement. now the risk is higher with the news coming out just when it broke its new high again.. cause rmb ppl have been saying tat BBs will push up the price so that stx euro can sell their shares at a higher price? we trust our charts only when it moves according to our prediction.. once it goes out of our predicted range.. like wat master ipunter always says.. just admit the mistake and close it. a trap or not we wont know, master gaecia is looking at SAR's false breakout i suppose.. i believe a lot of ppl are stuck at 3-3.2.. gonna respect master gaecia for able to short at 3.2 :)
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iPunter
Supreme |
10-Jul-2011 08:28
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I must say you have superb human understanding...
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muifan
Master |
10-Jul-2011 00:19
Yells: "Take the leap of faith dont regret 20 years later!" |
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Ipunter sifu, I must say you truly impressed me once again with your philosophy... This post of yours, totally came across my mind just now in the cinema... just that my England not as deep as yours... my version is : " When times are good, you are god, When times are bad, you are dog..." :D
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muifan
Master |
10-Jul-2011 00:14
Yells: "Take the leap of faith dont regret 20 years later!" |
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Yoyoyo Master Sifu Gaecia, thank you I am not losing sleep over it. In fact I had a late night movie. Life is short enough, I do not want to make it shorter. However I have many questions running through my head amd hope the sifus here can answer (nothing personal, I am wrong and I want to know why, if not, its like kena murdered and dont know who is the murderer!) Lets us this STXOSV case as example: 1) I have learnt that charts are tools that you cannot afford to do without it in trading. In this case, " Charts  can be  crafted intently to trap  TA  investors" , I cannot see any fault or trap on STXOSV's Fri breakout apart of the reason that Gaecia pointed out, no news breakout , which I must agree and I failed to take it into consideration. However, STXOSV have been breaking out with no news for quite a few times already, this is not the very first time. So when is real , when is trap? WHen to believe our charts, and when not to? Thus I always feel that trading is a NEGATIVE SUM GAME towards retailers like us. There are 30% that we totally cannot control. Charting, principles, discipline, deep pockets etc , even you are perfect in all these, you can only control 70%. Minus insider trading, bbs, natural disasters, political decisions etc, thus landing us in negative probablity of winning. Then why still so many people in the world like us, so passionate towards this ? Because I always believe it is not the result, but the journey I enjoyed .... I met up with a personal friend working in one of the G private bank..he send me 1 sentence regarding this: " Expect the unexpected in this bullish market, it is not so simple , simply go in and short this counter on Monday..."  
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