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Latest Forum Topics / YZJ Shipbldg SGD Last:2.42

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Cruising with the ship ..Yangzijiang

Joe2020
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30-Sep-2011 10:41

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Why dont you buy the ship as well, at least if px drop you can take us for cruise

chtan5751 ( Date: 30-Sep-2011 10:15) Posted:

l just bought 100 lots @0.91, hope can make some profit... cheers..

jonasljk ( Date: 30-Sep-2011 09:53) Posted:

Cut loss @0.915. Took a huge loss in my portfolio, worst investment in a single counter for the year. will keep at the sidelines for now. Will re-enter when i see an opportunity again.

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chtan5751
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30-Sep-2011 10:15

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l just bought 100 lots @0.91, hope can make some profit... cheers..

jonasljk ( Date: 30-Sep-2011 09:53) Posted:

Cut loss @0.915. Took a huge loss in my portfolio, worst investment in a single counter for the year. will keep at the sidelines for now. Will re-enter when i see an opportunity again.

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jonasljk
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30-Sep-2011 09:53

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Cut loss @0.915. Took a huge loss in my portfolio, worst investment in a single counter for the year. will keep at the sidelines for now. Will re-enter when i see an opportunity again.

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Joe2020
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30-Sep-2011 08:53

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Be careful

JustinQuek ( Date: 29-Sep-2011 23:49) Posted:

its going up tomorrow again.might burst upwards

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JustinQuek
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29-Sep-2011 23:49

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its going up tomorrow again.might burst upwards

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teeth53
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29-Sep-2011 20:01

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teeth53 thot: The launched of such ship by YZJ, is direct competitor of STXOSV, it did't help much is stablizing both stocks nor assist in YZJ today trading prices.

Yangzijiang

CPF

Op-0.940

Cls-0.930

-0.030

-3.1%

Vol-32,092,000

741,000

0.925

0.930

292,000

Hi-0.950

Lo-0.930

STXOSV

CPF

Op-1.015

Cls-1.010

-0.030

-2.9%

Vol-15,217,000

280,000

1.010

1.015

790,000

Hi-1.030

Lo-1.005

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERcIvKnYhuM& feature=related

Uploaded by grootshipdesign on Dec 27, 2010

A 8500t multi purpose vessel with the Groot Cross-Bow®, in order to maintain speed in waves and reduce the consumed amount of fuel per ton cargo and thus the NOx and SOx emissions.

Groot Cross-Bow® is an innovative new design by Groot Ship Design (http://www.grootshipdesign.nl) from the Netherlands.

Naval architects and construction engineers at Groot Ship Design can deliver services from conceptual design, basic engineering to detailed engineering and delivery documentation.

Groot Ship design has experience with multi purpose vessels, container vessels, tankers, RORO vessels, yachts and special designs.

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domlim84
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29-Sep-2011 17:32

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29 lots... about 1.8k paper loss

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Sgshares
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29-Sep-2011 16:16

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did u buy a lot ?

domlim84 ( Date: 29-Sep-2011 10:44) Posted:

hi teeth53

thanks for your analysis... very helpful

i got in @ 99c.... painfully holding... might decide to cut soon.

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domlim84
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29-Sep-2011 10:44

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hi teeth53

thanks for your analysis... very helpful

i got in @ 99c.... painfully holding... might decide to cut soon.

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teeth53
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28-Sep-2011 22:11

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Hi domlim84,

Sori for late reply. thk Qs. Hope it help U in making a sound / better judgement. On sharing my thot...

One mths..?. Technical rebound within trading range. Signal bearish month to month. Trading is not without volatile risk. (Don hold to add more risk)

http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=BS6.SI& t=3m& l=on& z=l& q=l& p=b%2Ce20%2Ce50& a=m26-12-9& c=

teeth53 thot: 1 year?. Bearish mode - yr on yer, it peak > 2.00 (Jan-11), lowest < 0.50 is still a possibility. till cloud is clearer, now very cloudy.

http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=BS6.SI& t=2y& l=on& z=l& q=l& p=b%2Ce20%2Ce50%2Ce200& a=m26-12-9& c=

For Eg oni: STXOSV as compatible stock (not a reference), on offer, initially strong support by BBs - @1.33 and now, last done at 1.04, down -0.04 with a vol-11,715,000 million shr changed hands today Sept 28.

My personnal opinion is once their (BBs) set TP is reach - is pump and dump strategy. It the same, it goes to each and every stocks, including YZJ.

Trade summary for Sept 28 (Wed)

Last	Trades	Volume	Bid Volume	Mid	Ask Volume
0.940	1	3,000	0	3,000	0
0.945	104	594,000	579,000	1,000	14,000
0.950	382	3,777,000	1,787,000	31,000	1,959,000
0.955	610	4,548,000	2,701,000	0	1,847,000
0.960	145	1,133,000	322,000	0	811,000
0.965	475	4,445,000	2,455,000	0	1,990,000
0.970	76	498,000	115,000	68,000	315,000
0.975	83	678,000	624,000	0	54,000
0.980	29	574,000	0	0	574,000
TOTAL	1,905	16,250,000	8,583,000	103,000	7,564,000

Yangzijiang

CPF

Op-0.975

Cls-0.960

-0.015

-1.5%

Vol-16,250,000

323,000

0.955

0.960

2,123,000

Hi-0.980

Lo-0.940

On YZJ, my more realistic view, setting a goal 4.x or at about 0.80cents (Short term trading is bearish and volatile), the up trench is equally very tedious tasks to up held for mid term (1-2 years) at 6.0x or at $1.20.

For one year, watch U.S. President then - The United States presidential election of 2012 is the next presidential election to be held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012 and will be the 57th quadrennial U.S. presidential election.

My expection on Euro debt woes (Short to mid term) is the can of worm will still be kick further down the road. but with Germany on d driver seat, thing can get better - but not without pain for Greek, (and for PIIGS) no pain , no gain.

http://www.presidentialelection.com/

Above is only sharing my personnal own thot, pls do ur own analysis. No risk, no pain, no gain. hope U gether alot more info from others.

domlim84 ( Date: 26-Sep-2011 14:26) Posted:

hi teeth53,

what is your personal price expectation in the short term (1 month) and medium term (1 year)?

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marubozu1688
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28-Sep-2011 16:35

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Sorry guys, although YZJ is under value now but my view is still bearish on this stock base on TA and macro-economy.

http://mystocksinvesting.com/singapore-stocks/yangzijiang/yangzijiang-prepare-to-free-fall-again/

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jonasljk
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28-Sep-2011 11:25

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My analysis presents accumulation, high chance of a short term rebound in this week.

Doubled my holdings @ 0.965

Cut Loss @ 0.935

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domlim84
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26-Sep-2011 14:26

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hi teeth53,

what is your personal price expectation in the short term (1 month) and medium term (1 year)?

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jonasljk
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26-Sep-2011 10:43

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mistake in this counter, affected by too many externalities. cut half at 0.985. take back 1/3 of my profits on this counter Smiley

jonasljk ( Date: 16-Sep-2011 17:02) Posted:

yes i am. have to wait till next week for a clearer picture. right now, based on my analysis, still probable for a rally. cut loss @ 0.985.

Sgshares ( Date: 16-Sep-2011 16:59) Posted:

Still holding?

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teeth53
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26-Sep-2011 10:36

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“We apply a forward P/E of 8x on 2011F EPS of 20c, arriving at a FV of $1.600 for a 12-month target. YZJ has a good chance of doubling (and then more) in the medium term. Once we include the 6% dividends annually, the 3-year compounded return is 30+%.

Offering high quality at lowest prices in every sense, YZJ is a rose among the thorns.BUY.”

teeth53 thot: Be more realistic in setting a goal 4.x or at about 0.80cents, over mid term at 6.0x or at $1.20.

All due to Angmo credit agency in down grading, as all of us can see - Euro and U.S. is sh**hting (liao sai)

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bsiong
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26-Sep-2011 10:12

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FYI

- by AmFraser Securities Pte Ltd

We initiate coverage on Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) Ltd. (YZJ) with a BUY and a fair value of $1.600. We believe that YZJ reached a significant milestone when it won the Seaspan order over South Korean yards—while bidding 5% higher. This fundamental shift in the competitive landscape has yet to be priced in. In our opinion, the stock price has already taken into consideration the weak demand expectations and general fears about S-chip corporate governance. Put bluntly, not every S-chip is a bad egg. Over time, these fears should recede and allow for revaluation. BUY.

INVESTMENT MERITS
· Fundamental shift in competitive landscape: YZJ is the only Chinese yard to win contracts for 10,000TEU vessels over South Korean builders, and did so bidding at a 5% premium
· High quality at lowest costs: YZJ’s gross margin is 22% versus the industry average of 15%, an extremely strong advantage
· Strong order book provides earnings visibility up to 2014: Including the US$2.6b worth of options and LOI, YZJ can maintain its record profits up till at least 2014
· Held-to-maturity assets protect purchasing power of YZJ‟ s cash and increases dividends: With inflation at 6% and deposit rates at 3.5%, YZJ needs to invest its cash. Investment returns also increase dividends by 8-10% by our calculations
· Clear dividend policy, attractive yield: Unlike many other companies, YZJ has a black-and-white dividend policy to pay at least 20% of profits. It has outdone itself by paying 30% in recent years. We forecast increased dividends to 6.0c—a good 6% yield

KEY RISKS
· Weakness in shipping markets: New orders have slowed, but not stopped. We see a refocus towards containerships over bulkers, which raises execution risks especially at the 10,000TEU+ range
· Normalizing gross margins to plateau near-term profits: With fewer high-margin pre-crisis orders, combined with high input-price inflation, gross margins should fall to normal levels. We foresee a flat earnings outlook, but at the record highs
· HTM assets at risk in hard-landing scenario: Though strongly covered by collateral, a hard-landing scenario in China may delay value recovery. We do not see large losses even should this happen

We apply a forward P/E of 8x on 2011F EPS of 20c, arriving at a FV of $1.600 for a 12-month target. YZJ has a good chance of doubling (and then more) in the medium term. Once we include the 6% dividends annually, the 3-year compounded return is 30+%. Offering high quality at lowest prices in every sense, YZJ is a rose among the thorns.BUY.

Yue Jer LEE
Research Analyst
AmFraser Securities Pte Ltd
4 Shenton Way #12-01 SGX Centre 2 S068807

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Sgshares
Elite

16-Sep-2011 17:03

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ok.. good luck... i chose to close all. cheers

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jonasljk
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16-Sep-2011 17:02

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yes i am. have to wait till next week for a clearer picture. right now, based on my analysis, still probable for a rally. cut loss @ 0.985.

Sgshares ( Date: 16-Sep-2011 16:59) Posted:

Still holding?

jonasljk ( Date: 15-Sep-2011 16:21) Posted:

doubling my holdings in this counter soon Smiley

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Sgshares
Elite

16-Sep-2011 16:59

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Still holding?

jonasljk ( Date: 15-Sep-2011 16:21) Posted:

doubling my holdings in this counter soon Smiley

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Sgshares
Elite

16-Sep-2011 14:22

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Covered @ $1.03...done

Sgshares ( Date: 16-Sep-2011 10:21) Posted:

Shorted cosco $1.04...wish me luck

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