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krisluke
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10-Aug-2011 23:55
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August 2011 ... Got 3 public holiday ? ?? SINGAPORE PRESIDENT POLLING DAY... ... |
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krisluke
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10-Aug-2011 23:53
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Six Republicans named to U.S. deficit super panel
* Senate Republicans tap Kyl, Portman, Toomey
  * House Republicans name Camp, Hensarling, Upton   * Three slots remain to be filled by House Democrats (Adds House Republican announcements, background)   WASHINGTON, Aug 10 (Reuters) - Republicans named their six members to a U.S. congressional deficit-reduction super committee on Wednesday, setting the stage for an attempt to create bipartisan agreement on taxes and government spending.   Senators Jon Kyl, Rob Portman and Patrick Toomey were selected by Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell.   House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner, the top Republican in Congress, named Representatives Dave Camp, Jeb Hensarling and Fred Upton to the committee.   The panel is known as the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction and was established to find $1.5 trillion in additional budget saving over 10 years.   Expectations for a fiscal policy breakthrough by the panel were on the rise as markets whipsawed through the week following a historic downgrade of U.S. debt and a deal to raise the U.S. debt ceiling that postponed tough decisions.   Senate Democrats were first out of the gate on Tuesday with their appointments to the 12-member panel. They were Senators Max Baucus, John Kerry and Patty Murray, a trio that analysts said sent a mixed message about the panel's potential.   Only three more slots on the panel remained to be filled by House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi. |
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krisluke
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10-Aug-2011 23:51
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European shares plunge on sell-off in French banks
LONDON, Aug 10 (Reuters) - European shares ended sharply down on Wednesday, led lower by a steep sell-off in banking shares, with Societe Generale down more than 21 percent at one point on a slew of rumours about the bank.
  A SocGen spokeswoman categorically denied all rumours relating to the bank's financial solidity, but the bank's shares were still down 14.7 percent after hitting a 2-1/2-year low and witnessing their biggest daily percentage decline in more than two decades. Credit Agricole fell 11.8 percent, while the European banking index was down 6.5 percent.   " We are running short of triple-A countries. If France is downgraded, that raises issues about other countries as well. Fundamentally public finances are not very strong," said Klaus Wiener, chief economist at Generali Investments, which manages 330 billion euros ($469 billion).   " It's very unfortunate to see all this action at this point in time when we have a very fragile market environment."   The FTSEurofirst 300 of leading European shares provisionally finished 3.8 percent lower at 911.65 points. France's CAC 40 index slipped 5.5 percent. (Reporting by Atul Prakash) |
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krisluke
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10-Aug-2011 23:49
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Sudan grants China more oil exploration rights
Ali Ahmed Karti listens during a U.N. Security Council meeting on Sudan at U.N. headquarters in New York
  On Monday, Chinese foreign minister Yang Jiechi visited Khartoum in the first high-level visit of a Chinese official since South Sudan became independent last month during which he assured continued support.   " (Sudan's) President (Omar Hassan) al-Bashir told the Chinese minister that Chinese firm (China National Petroleum Corp) CNPC will be granted the right to explore oil in three new blocs," Sudan's foreign minister Ali Ahmed Karti told reporters late on Monday.   He spoke after Yang had met Bashir before leaving on Tuesday for talks in the southern capital Juba.   Karti said China has committed itself to develop more than one new oil field in Sudan, without giving details.   China, which has been aggressively pursuing natural resources in Africa, has maintained close ties with Sudan throughout a U.S. trade embargo. North Sudan was the sixth-largest source of Chinese oil imports in 2010.   Most Sudanese oil is located in South Sudan, but exports to China and elsewhere have to pass through pipelines and a seaport located in the north, which gives export customers an incentive to promote good relations between the two Sudans.   President Bashir has been shunned by Western countries since being indicted by the International Criminal Court in the Hague for war crimes and genocide. China opposes the indictment.   |
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krisluke
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10-Aug-2011 23:47
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BoE cuts UK growth outlook, leaves QE door open
* King strikes dovish tone, sees end to inflation spike
  * Rate hikes unlikely for long time given global turmoil   * No strong signal that QE2 is imminent (Adds detail, analyst reaction)   By David Milliken and Sven Egenter   LONDON, Aug 10 (Reuters) - The Bank of England cut its growth forecasts on Wednesday, left the door open for a second bout of quantitative easing and signalled interest rates will stay at record lows for a long while to come.   BoE Governor Mervyn King stopped short of following the U.S. Federal Reserve, which said it was likely to leave rates near zero for another two years, committing neither to keep rates on hold indefinitely or to conduct further government bond purchases with new money.   But he did say British growth faced major downward risks -- especially if the euro zone debt crisis worsens -- and market endorsed forecasts that pencil in barely any rate increases before the end of next year.   " Since we last met, the mood in markets has taken a sharp turn for the worse," King told a news conference. " There are a number of headwinds to world and domestic growth over the forecast period, not least the public and private debt overhang, and these headwinds are becoming stronger by the day."   The Fed, as well as its comments on rates, said on Tuesday it would also consider further steps to help growth, while the European Central Bank overcame some internal opposition to begin buying the bonds of debt-laden Italy and Spain this week.   King would not make a two-year commitment on rates but noted that markets were already pricing in only one quarter-point rate rise by the end of 2012.   That, and his emphasis on the downside risks, pushed British 10-year government bond yields to a record lows of barely 2.5 percent.   " The tone of the report is much softer than we expected," said Jens Larsen, economist at Royal Bank of Canada. " The MPC comes very close to endorsing current market (rate) expectations ... and the report also brings back the prospect of further asset purchases."   Economists at Royal Bank of Scotland estimate there is now a 40 percent chance of more quantitative easing next year, while RBC views it more as an option if the euro zone crisis deepens markedly.   The BoE bought 200 billion pounds of British government bonds with newly created money between March 2009 and February 2010, and King said that further asset purchases could still prove effective in a crisis.   " We are not out of tools," he said.   But he warned that monetary policy could only do so much to relieve the pain of the economic reforms needed after the financial crisis.   " There are limits to what monetary policy can do. There are significant adjustments that have to be made in every major economy, not just the UK," he said.     INFLATION HIGH, THEN FALLING   The BoE forecast that inflation would peak around 5 percent later this year -- the same as it predicted in May -- before falling steadily to 1.8 percent in two years time, a shade lower than it expected three months ago.   Upside risks remain to the forecast, but the BoE sees a stronger chance that it will meet its 2 percent inflation target within the next two years than it did three months ago.   This fall in the inflation forecast comes despite the fact that much less monetary tightening is factored into the BoE's forecasts than in its May projections.   Short-term market interest rates are only predicted to rise to 0.8 percent by the end of 2012 -- implying just one quarter point increase in official rates, compared to a 1.7 percent rate in May's forecast.   There appeared to be more consensus on the 9-member Monetary Policy Committee than three months ago, with the report noting " a range of views" about the outlook on growth and inflation, rather than the " wider than usual" range referred to in May.   The BoE said there were substantial downside risks to Britain's economic recovery, the biggest of which came from the euro zone fiscal crisis.   " Were they to crystallise, the risks emanating from the euro area have the potential to have a significant impact on the UK economy," the BoE said. The damage caused was hard to quantify, and therefore could not be fully factored into forecasts.   Nonetheless, it still cut its growth forecast for 2011, and to a lesser degree, going forward. By the fourth quarter of 2011, the BoE now sees an annual rate of growth of 2.0 percent, down from 2.5 percent in May -- translating to full-year growth for 2011 of about 1.4 percent.   Growth is likely to be a little over 2 percent next year, and after two years, it is forecast to be running at an annual rate of around 2.7 percent, a fraction lower than in May's forecasts.   But the BoE still sees the economy struggling to make up the ground lost in Britain's 2008-09 recession, with a growing likelihood that there has been lasting damage.   " The MPC continue to expect that the level of GDP in coming years will stay far short of the pre-recession trend," said Citi economist Michael Saunders. " In other words there has been a sizeable and lasting loss of potential GDP, implying a permanent erosion of living standards." (Addtional reporting by Matt Falloon, Olesya Dmitracova and Peter Griffiths editing by Mike Peacock) |
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krisluke
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10-Aug-2011 23:46
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Wall Street rattled by French bank worries
* Fears of trouble in French banking sector hit stocks
  * Economy worries persists after stocks' snap-back rally   * Indexes off: Dow 3.8 pct, S& P 3.6, Nasdaq 3.4 pct (Updates to midday, changes byline)   By Chuck Mikolajczak   NEW YORK, Aug 10 (Reuters) - Wall Street stocks fell sharply on Wednesday, erasing most of the previous day's gains, on fears of trouble in the French banking sector, which has significant exposure to shaky European debt.   U.S. financial stocks led the decline on worries any French bank problems could spread to them. The KBW bank index slid 7 percent. Large financial institutions fell sharply, including Bank of America Corp down 11.2 percent to $6.76.   A Societe Generale spokeswoman denied rumors of trouble, but French banks were hit hard in Paris trading. Societe General, where U.S. traders have focused their attention, fell 21 percent and BNP Paribas lost 13 percent.   " Memories are fresh. People who during the last financial crisis did not sell right away, next time around are ready to sell quick and ask questions later. People are seeing this as 'next time,'" said Ed Crotty, chief investment officer at Davidson Investment Advisors in Great Falls, Montana.   Stocks rallied on Tuesday after the Federal Reserve promised to keep interest rates near zero for at least two more years. The S& P 500 index had its best performance in more than two years.   The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 422.73 points, or 3.76 percent, to 10,817.04. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index slumped 42.30 points, or 3.61 percent, to 1,130.23. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 83.13 points, or 3.35 percent, to 2,399.39.   The CBOE Volatility index jumped 24.8 percent, representing the third session in the last five the index has seen a jump of at least 20 percent.   Walt Disney Co was among the worst performers on the Dow, tumbling 11.2 percent to $30.80 a day after the company's quarterly results failed to reassure investors the entertainment company could do well in a weak U.S. economy.   Even after Tuesday's snap-back rally, the S& P 500 is down nearly 18 percent since a peak at the start of May. Worries about the U.S. economy and high levels of public debt in Europe have sent stock cascading over the last two weeks. (Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak Additional reporting by Ashley Lau Editing by Kenneth Barry) |
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krisluke
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10-Aug-2011 23:06
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Salute
Master |
10-Aug-2011 23:01
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if this can be another reason to cause the drop, people must be " siow" as it's become non essential. there was a great drop last time when north fire south becuase there weren't such creditability downgrading and default matters like now. |
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krisluke
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10-Aug-2011 23:00
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krisluke
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10-Aug-2011 22:56
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North And South Korea Exchange Artillery Fire |
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krisluke
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10-Aug-2011 22:38
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Wall Street slumps on worries over French banks
NYSE
  * Economy worries persists after stocks' snap-back rally   * Indexes off: Dow 3.1 pct, S& P, Nasdaq 2.9 pct (Updates to midmorning)   By Edward Krudy   NEW YORK, Aug 10 (Reuters) - Wall Street stocks fell sharply on Wednesday on fears over possible trouble in the French banking sector that has large exposure to shaky peripheral European debt.   U.S. financial stocks led the decline as the KBW bank index slid 6.2 percent. Large financial institutions fell sharply, with Bank of America Corp down 12.2 percent to $6.93.   French banks were hit hard in Paris trading. Societe General, where U.S. traders have focused their attention, fell 16 percent. BNP Paribas fell 13.2 percent.   " France owns $350 billion worth of Italy's debt on their banks' books," Dave Rovelli managing director of U.S. equity trading at Canaccord Adams, who said fears of a failure in the sector were hitting U.S. markets.   The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 342.96 points, or 3.05 percent, to 10,896.81. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 33.66 points, or 2.87 percent, to 1,138.87. The Nasdaq Composite Index shed 72.56 points, or 2.92 percent, to 2,409.96.   Indexes gave up much of Tuesday's snap-back rally. The S& P 500 is down nearly 18 percent since a peak at the start of May. Worries about the U.S. economy and high levels of public debt in Europe have sent stock cascading over the last two weeks. |
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krisluke
Supreme |
09-Aug-2011 23:14
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krisluke
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09-Aug-2011 23:11
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S& P Is NOT The First Rating Agency To Downgrade The U.S. |
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krisluke
Supreme |
09-Aug-2011 23:08
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German Politicians Want Spain And Italy To Sell Off Their Gold |
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krisluke
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09-Aug-2011 23:05
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krisluke
Supreme |
09-Aug-2011 23:02
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Oil, metals rebound on hopes of Fed stimulus
* Brent crude bounces after move below $100
  * Copper also rebounds after hitting 8-month low   * Gold hits string of records, touches $1,778   * China inflation hits 3-year high at 6.5 pct (Recasts with more quotes, updated prices)   By Eric Onstad and Manolo Serapio Jr   LONDON/SINGAPORE, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Most commodities bounced back on Tuesday from steep losses in volatile markets as investors hoped the U.S. Federal Reserve would announce steps to boost the economy and stave off global recession.   Brent crude oil clawed back from a six-month low into positive territory, while copper pulled away from an eight-month low as bargain hunters prowled the markets. Gold touched successive all-time peaks as jittery investors sought a safe haven.   The 19-commodity Reuters-Jefferies CRB index rose 0.7 percent after tumbling on Monday to its lowest level in nearly eight months.   The downgrade of the United States' credit rating on Friday, along with a raging debt crisis in Europe, triggered a sell-off that had knocked nearly 10 percent off the price of U.S. crude in just two days and sent other commodities tumbling.   But markets bounced on hopes the U.S. central bank would signal later in the day it would take additional steps to stimulate the economy following previous shots of liquidity through so-called quantitative easing (QE).   The Fed will deliver its policy statement around 2:15 pm (1815 GMT).   The market would likely be wary of any stimulus after previous rounds only temporarily boosted asset prices without addressing underlying problems in the economy, said said Sean Corrigan, chief investment strategist at Diapason Commodities Management in Switzerland.   " Given the signal failure of the last QE2 to do anything other than push prices up for ordinary people... there's a different level of expectation about its efficacy and advisability," he said.   " One doesn't want to heap too much extra bearishness on a world which has had a bit of a shock in its expectatations over the past couple of weeks, but to me this is a market catching up with the underlying reality."   Investors have been counting on China's economic strength to support commodity demand when the Western world is on shaky ground. But data on Tuesday showing China's inflation, speeding to a higher-than-forecast 6.5 percent in July, suggests Beijing may have limited room to stimulate domestic growth.   " It's crucial for commodity markets that China doesn't slide. Fears of a China slowdown would really take the wind out of the markets," said Citigroup analyst David Thurtell.     OIL REBOUNDS   In a whipsaw market, oil prices plumbed fresh depths on fears about a global recession before reversing direction.   The worries about global growth and the impact on commodities demand pushed Brent crude briefly below the $100 per barrel level.   " The underlying fundamental is that demand in Europe and the U.S. is not strong, we have a sell off in equities and confidence in the global recovery has been hit again," said Olivier Jakob, analyst at Petromatrix in Zug, Switzerland.   Brent crude < LCOc1> fell as much as $5 to $98.74 a barrel, the lowest intraday price since Feb. 8, before erasing losses and trading 0.3 percent higher at $104.08 by 1350 GMT, still over $20 off an April peak above $127.   U.S. crude < CLc1> plunged nearly 7 percent to $75.71, its lowest since September 2010 before also bouncing. At one point, U.S. crude's discount to Brent < CL-LCO1=R> rose to its highest ever, reaching a peak of $23.76.   Industrial metals also rallied as copper bounced from eight-month lows, bolstered by consumer buying.   Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rebounded from $8,446.25, a fall of 4.7 percent, its lowest level since early December 2010, to gain 0.4 percent.   Aluminium rose 1.7 percent to $2,419 a tonne and nickel added 1.5 percent to $21,575.   " Regardless where you are, some of these commodities do represent a reasonable value," said Jonathan Barratt, managing director of Sydney-based Commodity Broking Services.     GOLD ROARS AHEAD   Early in the day when other markets were deepening losses, gold kept up its blistering rally, staging its biggest three-day rally since late 2008 during the global financial crisis.   Spot gold hit a record $1,778.30 an ounce as investors sought refuge in the safe haven asset from chaos in other markets. That marked its 12th record in 20 sessions.   As other markets recovered, gold pared gains to around $1,735 an ounce.   " The market could come off from here, but it's headed in a northerly direction," said ANZ head of metal sales Peter Hillyard. " From where we are now, you might think we could see some sort of pull-back. But I'm talking about a momentary thing, a pull-back like the loading of a gun, which then fires away."   In agricultural markets, U.S. wheat recovered from losses as low prices generated buying interest, while corn and soybeans pulled back from their lows.   " I have also seen a steady stream of buying orders for wheat on my desk as people view the present low market as a buying opportunity," a European trader said.   Sugar, coffee and cocoa futures also rebounded. |
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krisluke
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09-Aug-2011 23:00
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* Loan pricing for high grades to go up * Funding costs and tightened liquidity continue to loom * European players' activities may wane By Jacqueline Poh and Foster Wong HONG KONG, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Standard & Poor's downgrade of the U.S. debt rating could lead to a pricing adjustment in the Asian syndicated loan market, although any impact will take time and the euro zone crisis remains more important for now, banking sources told Thomson Reuters Basis Point. The Asia loan market has been plagued by fluctuating funding costs and tightening liquidity over the last year. With the U.S. downgrade, loan market players say they expect more conservative lending and possibly opportunistic price hikes. " Everything has a chain reaction," said a senior loan banker with a European bank. " Corporate borrowers may turn to the loan market when the equity market is shut, and this will likely drive up loan pricing. But on the other hand, banks may tighten their lending due to the uncertain market outlook, and this would in turn squeeze liquidity... I wouldn't be surprised if there is a slowdown in deal flow in Q4. " While business at many commercial banks in Asia continues as usual, they have become more cautious about underwriting new deals, banking sources said. " We expect to see more top-tier borrowers come out earlier than expected for their refinancing in a bid to lock in their funding arrangements," said a corporate loan banker with a major Chinese bank. Christine Chan, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets' head of loan capital markets for Asia, also noted that pricing could see significant changes in the second half. " Tightly priced deals for investment grade or high grade names should see an increase as their pricing is clearly touching (many banks') cost of funds," Chan said. ACTIVE EUROPEANS FACING RISING COF Many banking sources say the euro zone crisis is more of a concern, however, as European banks -- usually more active in Asia than their U.S. peers -- have been doing fewer deals recently. " US banks are not very active players in Asia, so the impact on the syndicated loan market is minimal. However, Europeans, which were active, are significantly less aggressive in Asia these days," said John Corrin, global head of loan syndications with ANZ and chairman of the Asia Pacific Loan Market Association. Chan added that the market should be more concerned with rising funding costs and how international banks with large exposures in Asia are coping. The pressing cost of funds issue has been haunting the syndicated loan market in the region this year. Boey Yin Chong, DBS Bank's managing director for syndicated finance, institutional banking group, has said that many lenders are feeling the pressure of higher costs of funds, particularly in US$ and some regional currencies such as HK$. Already, Chinese, Hong Kong and Taiwanese banks are experiencing increasing costs and implementing different strategies to counteract the shortage of US$ funds. And as the Italy debt crisis unfolded recently, European banks' costs of funds scaled higher. An Asia-based Spanish banker said European banks' costs had been in the 100s this year but have recently surged to around 200 basis points. Still, many Europeans agree that costs are not as high as during the Lehman days, and they say that while there has been a global market selloff in equities, that negativity has not spilled over to the corporate loan market in Asia. " We have not seen any deals being pulled or repriced, or banks pulling out," Corrin said. " The loan market takes longer (than equity or bond) markets for macro events to take effect." " The bulk of Asia loan market is taken up by Asian investors, so that limits the impact." Chan added: " Besides international banks, there are also local banks which the local loan market can rely on." A US bank's team head of syndications agreed, " The loan market moves slower than the bond market, so it is too early to see or feel any impact." " Don't think the market will halt suddenly, but don't expect deals to launch at this time until this negativity has subsided." Corrin noted that some could even gain from a flight to quality. " Some better-rated banks' liquidity may actually benefit from this as there could be a flight to quality." Overnight US$ Libor more than doubled in September 2008 after Lehman Brothers filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, but Libor was unchanged after S& P announced its downgrade on U.S. government debt. |
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krisluke
Supreme |
09-Aug-2011 21:36
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krisluke
Supreme |
09-Aug-2011 21:33
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krisluke
Supreme |
09-Aug-2011 21:30
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Fed May Boost Stimulus PledgeFederal Reserve officials may strengthen their commitment to record monetary stimulus as soon as today after a faltering economic recovery and a U.S. credit- rating cut provoked a rout in global stocks. By a 52 percent to 48 percent margin, respondents in a Bloomberg News survey said the Fed would ease policy this year through monetary tools or statement language. If the central bank acts, 59 percent said it would communicate that the federal funds rate, balance sheet or both will remain especially stimulative for a longer period or more specific amount of time. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his colleagues are weighing the use of more untested policy tools after two rounds of bond buying totaling $2.3 trillion failed to spur sufficient economic growth and reduce unemployment below 9 percent. The Federal Open Market Committee holds its regular meeting today in Washington following the worst day for U.S. stocks since December 2008. “The odds of more dramatic action are higher,” said Vincent Reinhart, a former chief monetary policy strategist at the Fed. “However, they might not want to be seen as responding so directly to equity prices,” Reinhart said, adding that policy makers may wait to signal a new round of bond purchases until Bernanke gives a speech on Aug. 26 at a Fed conference at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Reinhart is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. Stay at RecordThe FOMC began its meeting around 8 a.m. in Washington and plans to issue a statement at about 2:15 p.m. Julia Coronado, chief economist for North America for BNP Paribas in New York, said the central bank may say today the economic slowdown is persisting longer than expected. Policy makers may also say the Fed’s securities portfolio will remain at a record for an “extended period” and replace shorter-term securities with longer maturities to reduce rates on longer-term debt, she said. The Fed reiterated in June that the overnight interbank lending rate would be “exceptionally low” for an “extended period” and said the policy of reinvesting maturing securities to keep the balance sheet steady would be maintained, without saying how long. The “extended period” phrase means that the FOMC is at least two or three meetings away, or “significantly longer,” from taking any action, Bernanke said at a June press conference. Bernanke isn’t scheduled to hold a press briefing today, unlike after the June 21-22 policy meeting. He holds news conferences only after two-day meetings, when the Fed releases updated economic forecasts. Forecasts are next scheduled for release after the Nov. 1-2 gathering. On such days, the Fed releases its announcement at around 12:30 p.m. Debt CrisisThe drop in global stocks, further fueled by concerns over Europe’s debt crisis, adds to pressure on the Fed, which is confronting a slowing U.S. economy and unemployment stuck above 9 percent. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index tumbled 6.7 percent yesterday to 1,119.46 in New York trading, its biggest decline since December 2008. The Financial Stability Oversight Council, which is chaired by Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner and also includes Bernanke, convened by teleconference yesterday afternoon, according to a government official who declined to be named because he wasn’t authorized to discuss the matter. Staying in TouchThe council discussed market developments in light of increased volatility and risk aversion, the official said. Each member gave an update on market functioning and details on sectors they oversee. Council members, who also include the chairmen of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, agreed to stay in close communication in the coming days, according to the official. Today, U.S. stock index futures rose, European shares pared losses and Treasuries fell. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures added 1.5 percent at 8:41 a.m. in New York, after losing as much as 3.2 percent. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was down 0.4 percent after falling as much as 5.1 percent. Treasuries, the benchmarks for the $34 trillion U.S. debt market that is more than twice the value of American equities, fell. The 10-year note yield was up seven basis points at 2.39 percent. Asked which step the Fed would most likely take first, 59 percent of 51 respondents said the central bank would alter language in the FOMC statement. Deposits on ReservesAnother 22 percent said the Fed would increase the average maturity of its securities holdings, 18 percent said it would buy more assets and 12 percent see the Fed lowering the 0.25 percent interest rate paid on banks’ excess reserve deposits. The total exceeds 100 percent because some economists said the first step would involve two actions. Economists were divided on whether the Fed would act now, with 35 percent of 46 respondents saying the easing step would come today and 39 percent predicting a move at the next meeting Sept. 20. Fifteen percent saw a potential decision at the Nov. 1-2 meeting, and the remaining 11 percent said sometime after the Dec. 13 session. The Fed is likely to start a third round of asset purchases, and “they certainly should do something right away,” said Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard University economics professor and former Fed researcher who attended graduate school with Bernanke. It’s not clear if Bernanke would have the support of the Federal Open Market Committee, Rogoff said. ‘More Decisively’“It’s going to move more decisively” than in the first two rounds, Rogoff said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. He recommended the Fed say it’s trying to create “moderate inflation” and avoid repeating that officials are trying to boost stocks. The survey of 58 economists was conducted Aug. 5-8 by e- mail and completed at around noon yesterday. Given the opportunity to change answers after S& P cut the U.S.’s AAA credit rating on Aug. 5, one respondent altered a forecast. The Fed’s meeting comes two days after central bankers and finance ministers from the Group of Seven nations pledged to “take all necessary measures to support financial stability and growth.” The officials said they would pump money into the global economy and take other steps if warranted. The G-7 statement followed a pledge by the European Central Bank to “actively implement” its bond-purchase program. The ECB started buying Italian and Spanish assets yesterday in its riskiest attempt yet to tame the continent’s sovereign debt crisis. Third RoundWhile Fed officials may weigh whether to undertake a third round of government bond purchases to spur growth, they probably won’t announce a new program today, respondents said. In fact, a majority of economists said in the Bloomberg survey that a third round of quantitative easing won’t happen. Forty-two percent of 52 respondents said more bond purchases are very unlikely, and 29 percent see them as somewhat unlikely. Of the 29 percent who see such a move as likely, 13 percent say the probability is more than 75 percent, and 15 percent say the chance is 50 percent to 75 percent. In Bloomberg’s June survey, 7 percent of analysts said a third round of bond buying, or QE3, was likely. Such a step may backfire because it could panic investors by signaling the economy is in worse shape than the Fed thought, said Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Point Loma Nazarene University in San Diego, California, and a board member of the National Association for Business Economics. Bond PurchasesThe Fed in June completed a $600 billion Treasury bond- purchase program aimed at reducing long-term borrowing costs on everything from car loans to mortgages and boosting share prices. Even with the purchases, the economy grew in the first six months of this year at the weakest pace since the recovery started in 2009. After almost stalling at a 0.4 percent annual pace in the first three months of this year, the economy expanded at a 1.3 percent rate last quarter, the government reported on July 29. “I’m sure they’re facing a tough decision here about what steps they should take,” said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates Inc. in St. Petersburg, Florida. “These things are kind of marginal at this point, but every little bit would help.” |
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