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krisluke
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14-Aug-2011 22:56
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Singapore PM says US, EU threaten global economy(AP:SINGAPORE) Singapore's prime minister says economic problems in the U.S. and Europe are a serious risk to global growth. |
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krisluke
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14-Aug-2011 22:52
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Asia to release important economic data this week The Asian region will release a set of important fundamentals this week regarding economic growth rates in Asian along with central banks decisions. The Japanese economy is to release its GDP for the second quarter beside the RBA's minutes.    Starting with the Japanese GDP, where the economy is expected to deepen the contraction and confirm the recession with 1.4% expected quarterly contraction following 1.3% recorded contraction in the first quarter. Japan's annualized GDP recorded 3.5% contraction in the first quarter, where the analysts' forecasts estimated the economy will shrink by 2.6% on the year in the second quarter. Nevertheless, the Japanese economy is currently enjoying some improvements as the nation's industrial production advanced, which increased by 3.8% due to higher rates of production which started to expand to compensate the losses caused by the earthquake on March 11. At the meantime, the biggest fear is the rise in the value of the yen, which is almost constant and chronic, which had a negative impact on any step forward, especially after the recent rise in the past week and return closer to the level that pushed the central bank to intervene into the markets, which impedes exports. Moving to Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes for the August 18 meeting when policy makers voted to keep the monetary stance unchanged. The Australian economy is still suffering during this period after the unemployment rates unexpectedly increased to 5.1% as a result of higher interest rates along with the stronger Aussie which made products more expensive. Furthermore, the RBA increases its cheerful outlook about the economic recovery in Australia, but there is an obstacle that impede growth rates which is the unemployment that increased to the most since October, and the retail sales that dropped in June and had negative results on economic growth, while the Australian government is to gauge the recent events that dominate the market. Finally, we note that inflation rates aren't much of a threat to policy markers for now amid the slowing growth especially after consumer inflation expectations during the month of August eased to 2.7%. |
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krisluke
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14-Aug-2011 02:29
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Markets mixed after quiet end to tumultuous week
* Markets calmer after violent selloff earlier in the week
  * Trading volumes modest as investors try to stay nimble   * Oil down half pct for the day and off 2 pct on week   * Bullion outperforms with best weekly gain since Nov 2009   * Coming up: New York state's manufacturing index (Monday)   By Barani Krishnan   NEW YORK, Aug 12 (Reuters) - Commodities ended mixed on Friday as markets took a breather after a volatile week that started wtih a plunge and then a vigorous rebound that brought a key market index back to even.   Financial markets as a whole looked calmer after a violent sell-off that began the week after the first-ever U.S. credit ratings downgrade that spooked investors already worried that the European debt crisis may get out of hand.   Mildly encouraging U.S. retail sales data lifted commodity prices before a weak reading for consumer sentiment offset some gains.   Trading volumes were modest as investors tried to stay nimble in the event of more bad news.   " There seems to be a little bit of confidence coming back in after the falls earlier in the week, although it looks like there will still be a bit of volatility," said Simon Wardell, an oil analyst at IHS Global Insight in Englewood, Colorado.   U.S. crude oil ended nearly half a percent lower on the day and down 2 percent on the week after improved market sentiment since Wednesday helped prices recover from an 8 percent battering in the first two sessions.   Benchmark front-month crude oil in New York settled at $85.38 a barrel. It plumbed a 10-month low of $75.71 at one point Tuesday.   Gold finished the week up despite a drop on Friday of more than 1 percent in the spot price of bullion.   Bullion outperformed every major commodity during the week, rising 5 percent for its biggest weekly advance since November 2009. As markets gyrated through the week, gold had a streak of record highs and touched nearly $1,820 an ounce.   But traders said gold could fall from here as investors take profits on its rally, or put money into riskier assets. " Near term, a correction makes sense," said Hayden Atkins, gold analyst at Macquarie.   The 19-commodity Reuters-Jefferies CRB index, a global benchmark for the asset class, finished a touch higher, helped by higher prices of soybeans, cocoa and copper. For the week, the CRB finished flat.   New York-traded copper rose slightly on the day and finished down 2.6 percent on the week, clawing back partially from the near 4 percent tumble on Monday.   Despite this week's partial recovery in copper, some analysts remained doubtful about the outlook for the industrial metal given problems faced by its top buyer China.   China is slowing down its rail investments, cutting its target for the construction of public homes and increasingly clamping down on credit.   " All these little bits are adding up," said David Wilson, copper analyst at Societe Generale in London. (Editing by David Gregorio) |
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krisluke
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14-Aug-2011 02:26
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Stocks get some relief after wild week
By Leah Schnurr
  NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street on Friday strung together two days of gains for the first time since mid-July after a whipsaw week as investors reacted to the first ever downgrade of the United States' credit rating and rising worries over European banks.   European stock markets also got a reprieve as a ban on short-selling of financial shares threw the battered sector a lifeline.   But markets did not escape the week unscathed. Credit tightened in a reminder of the tensions seen in 2008 as investors grew concerned that banks are too exposed to euro zone debt. Key short-term funding measures showed costs rising for banks to borrow money to cover obligations.   The market turmoil sent fund investors out of both stocks and bonds and into money markets and precious metals in the week ended August 10, data from EPFR Global showed.   " Once unthinkable things have happened, such as the U.S. losing its AAA rating," said Maneesh Deshpande, head of U.S. equity derivatives strategy at Barclays Capital.   " Investors are literally feeling the earth shifting under their feet. You just don't know what else you thought of as rock solid might turn out to be untrue."   World shares as measured by the MSCI world equity index lost 1.6 percent for the week, though they were up 1.1 percent Friday. U.S. stocks recorded their worst three-week decline since March of 2009 when they hit 12-year lows.   Composite volume on Wall Street was about 9 billion shares on Friday, far below the almost 16 billion shares traded daily on average this week.   More than 150 million stock options changed hands during the week, according to unofficial data from clearinghouse OCC. The record week included an all-time one-day record of 41.5 million contracts traded on Monday.   The search for safety pushed benchmark U.S. Treasuries to their largest one-week gain in two-and-a-half years. Ten-year note yields plunged 30 basis points this week and at one point tested record lows set in December 2008.   Ten-year notes were last up 25/32 in price to yield 2.28 percent, down from 2.56 basis points a week ago.   U.S. stocks ended modestly higher as investors took comfort from U.S. retail sales that rose in July for the biggest gain since March. That was tempered somewhat by a separate report that showed consumer sentiment in early August fell to the lowest since May 1980.   European shares closed up 3.6 percent. Bank shares, which have fallen sharply in recent days, led the move higher after the ban on short selling imposed by France, Italy, Spain and Belgium.   The Dow Jones industrial average gained 125.71 points, or 1.13 percent, to 11,269.02. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 6.17 points, or 0.53 percent, to 1,178.81. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 15.30 points, or 0.61 percent, to 2,507.98.   EURO ZONE WOES   The four countries banned short selling -- borrowing shares and selling them in expectation the price will fall -- of a group of banks and financial institutions after a flurry of rumors knocked a third of the value off some European bank shares this month.   Traders said the measure would provide temporary relief to jittery investors. But concerns about euro zone debt problems and a deteriorating outlook for the global economy are likely to keep trading erratic.   " Data from various regulators of late have shown there is no short-selling activity out of the norm," said Davide Burani, financial analyst at Italian fund manager Horatius.   Troubles in the euro zone were not very far from investors' minds as Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi announced a painful mix of tax hikes and spending cuts to meet European Central Bank demands for action on shoring up the country's strained public finances.   The strain in the dollar funding market remains high, as investors are skittish to lend their dollars due to doubts that European authorities could solve the debt crisis.   The benchmark London interbank offered rate on three-month dollars hit four-month highs of 0.29006 percent versus 0.28617 percent on Thursday. The rate is a gauge of how willing banks are to lend to one another.   The Swiss franc fell sharply for a second session.   Safe-haven gold extended the previous session's retreat from record highs. US gold futures for December delivery were down 3.6 percent at $1,747.80 an ounce. |
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krisluke
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11-Aug-2011 22:19
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SINGAPORE (Xinhua) -- There is a possibility Singapore could experience a technical recession, though the growth prospects remained good at the moment, local daily Straits Times quoted a senior official with the Ministry of Trade and Industry as reporting Thursday.
 
Kwek Mean Luck, deputy secretary for industry at the ministry, said the ministry was holding its growth forecast for Singapore at 5-6 percent.
 
" I think the possibility (of a technical recession) is there," he said.
 
The Singapore economy grew 0.9 percent in the second quarter year on year but contracted by 6.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted annualized quarter-on-quarter basis, largely due to weak manufacturing sector and high base effect.
 
A technical recession means two consecutive quarters of quarter- on-quarter losses.
 
International Enterprise Singapore, the trade promotion body, also revised its forecast for full-year export growth on Wednesday to 6-7 percent from 8-10 percent.  More BREAKING NEWS PLEASE CLICK
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krisluke
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11-Aug-2011 22:16
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Thursday, Aug 11, 2011 By Reico Wong SINGAPORE'S economy shrank sharply in the second quarter as manufacturing declined and global electronics demand plummeted, but the Government remains confident that the key industries will bolster growth in the second half. The plunge in the second quarter's growth raised concerns that the country could enter a technical recession in the third quarter - defined as two straight quarters of quarter-on-quarter contraction. If so, it would be the second of such recessions Singapore has faced in three years. Data released yesterday by the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) showed that gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 6.5 per cent on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter annualised basis. This was a reversal from the stout 27.2 per cent growth recorded in the first quarter. On a year-on-year basis, the economy expanded by 0.9 per cent in the second quarter. But the Government said it expects Singapore's GDP performance in the second half of the year to be bolstered by a range of key industries. " The biomedical manufacturing cluster is expected to recover, as companies step up production in anticipation of stronger demand. Growth in the financial-services sector is expected to be supported by the core financial-intermediation and insurance clusters," said MTI. " In addition, healthy visitor inflows, sustained by the integrated resorts and key events such as the Formula One Grand Prix, are likely to benefit the tourism-related sectors." Still, MTI yesterday decided to take a more cautious stance after noting the heightened downside risks to the global economy stemming from problems in the United States and Europe. It revised its full-year growth forecast for the Singapore economy down one percentage point to between 5 per cent and 6 per cent. " Should the situations (in the developed economies) worsen, Singapore's economic growth could be lower than expected," MTI warned. The weak local GDP showing in the second quarter was led by the dismal performance of the manufacturing sector, which shrank by an annualised quarter-on-quarter rate of 23.7 per cent. It saw a 5.9 per cent contraction from the same period the year before. This was due mainly to a decline in biomedical manufacturing output as some firms switched to producing a different value mix of active pharmaceutical ingredients. Electronics output also declined, as global demand for semiconductor chips eased. Economists like Barclays Capital's Mr Leong Wai Ho said that an expected shift of products in the biomedical cluster to a higher value mix of patented compounds would improve the sector's performance in the second half of the year. The impending introduction of new electronic gadgets would also boost the sector, they said. Other analysts, however, were less optimistic. " The weak growth outlook in the developed economies will continue to underpin the performance of the manufacturing sector," said Mr Irvin Seah, an economist with DBS. Within the services industry, financial services grew by a healthy 10 per cent on a year-on-year basis. But compared to the last quarter, the sector contracted 0.2 per cent. Some of the more sentiment-sensitive segments within the sector, such as stock trading, have suffered from heightened risk aversion in markets. Reflecting the slowdown in global trade flows, the wholesale & retail trade sector saw flat growth on a year-on-year basis, and declined 8.4 per cent from the last quarter. On a year-on-year basis, growth in the construction sector also fell, from 2.4 per cent to 1.5 per cent. " The final Q2 GDP figures came in slightly higher than the advance estimates but offer little comfort to the financial market stricken by round after round of bad news in recent weeks," said Mr Seah. " While a technical recession is not within our central scenario and growth momentum is still likely to pick up in H2, the impending uplift could be weaker than previously anticipated." Ms Selena Ling, an economist with OCBC, shared the view that it was increasingly likely that external demand would be handicapped by the ongoing fiscal mess in the US and European Union. Yesterday, the Government also cut its full-year export growth forecast on the back of recent global economic uncertainties. Singapore's non-oil domestic exports are now estimated to grow by between 6 and 7 per cent, instead of between 8 and 10 per cent. Ms Ling said that in a worst-case scenario, economic growth in the second half of this year may remain tepid at around 4 per cent. This, she said, would result in Singapore's full-year GDP growth coming in at about 4.5 per cent. |
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krisluke
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11-Aug-2011 22:13
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krisluke
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11-Aug-2011 22:11
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Sarkozy in emergency meeting on euro debt crisisPARIS France's President Nicolas Sarkozy interrupted his vacation to hold an emergency government meeting Wednesday about the debt troubles that have hit global markets hard. Worries over the debt problems afflicting many countries in Europe and the U.S. have undermined confidence in the economic recovery on both sides of the Atlantic. Sarkozy and some other European leaders have come under criticism for staying on holiday as turmoil gripped trading floors. Sarkozy's office said in a statement that he summoned select ministers and the head of the French central bank to his Elysee presidential palace Wednesday to discuss " the economic and financial situation." Finance Minister Francois Baroin, Budget Minister Valerie Pecresse, Foreign Minister Alain Juppe and European Affairs Minister Jean Leonetti will be present. Sarkozy had been on the French Riviera earlier this week with his pregnant wife, Carla Bruni-Sarkozy. One idea that may be discussed in the meeting is the French finance minister's suggestion that the eurozone could boost the size of the bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility. But Germany, the region's strongest economy, has been reluctant to do more to support debt-ridden neighbors. After ratings agency Standard & Poors downgraded U.S. debt last week, worries surfaced that France could be next to lose its coveted AAA rating, especially if it has to contribute more to any further European bailouts. Concerns have also surfaced about French growth. Earlier this week, the French central bank said France will likely grow only 0.2 percent in the third quarter. Sarkozy's return comes just amid signs that the recent turmoil in financial markets may be easing. Wall Street's late rally Tuesday after the Federal Reserve said it would keep interest rates at near zero percent for the next two years has pushed stock markets higher in Europe and Asia. |
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krisluke
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11-Aug-2011 22:06
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Gold falls from record, oil off on debt crises
* U.S. jobless claims fall, trade gap widens
  * World stocks, euro fall on Europe bank concerns   * Brent erases earlier dollar gains   * China yuan move helps copper (Adds details, comments)   By Susan Thomas   LONDON, Aug 11 (Reuters) - Gold fell from record highs on Thursday but remained in demand by investors seeking safety from market volatility triggered by fears Europe's debt crisis could spread to France, and oil fell.   Copper bucked the trend, rising on growth prospects in China, the world's largest consumer of the metal.   Spot gold touched an all-time peak of $1,813.79, before easing to $1,778 at 1052 GMT, but was supported by investor anxiety that major economies are in deep trouble.   All commodities remained under pressure, with investors unwilling to take long-term bets in markets that have whip-sawed for weeks on escalating debt crises and concerns about global growth in the United States and Europe.   Rumours, later quashed, of a possible sovereign rating downgrade of France and doubts about the health of one of its banks moved rapidly through markets, set off the latest panic.   " It's very alarming what is going on in the market, and a sign of that is what is happening with gold prices," Commerzbank analyst Eugen Weinberg said.   " The one thing all commodities have in common at the moment is volatility. There is insecurity, low visibility, weak economies going forward. The market is extremely undecided and for good reasons."   Gold is seen as a safe store of value in times of crisis and a counter-cyclical asset that usually rises in the medium term when other assets fall.   Despite gold's dip from its record high on Thursday, it remains on track for its biggest one-week gain since Sept. 2008, helped by hefty losses in stock markets.   Jittery investors drove stocks lower after an early bounce and moved back into safe-haven assets as euro zone banking concerns and signs of funding stress resurfaced.   The MSCI world equity index was down 0.2 percent. It has fallen in 11 of the past 13 sessions.     SLIVER OF HOPE?   The latest U.S. data provided some relief. Initial jobless claims edged lower in the latest week and were better than forecast.   Brent crude < LCOc1> briefly pared losses after the U.S. jobless data, but quickly turned negative and was below $106 per barrel.   " It all appears to be about confidence," said Jonathan Barratt, managing director at Commodity Broking Services in Sydney. " Each bit of negative news erodes confidence and that erodes demand."   On the currency markets, the dollar index rose 0.3 percent, and the euro fell, remaining vulnerable to worries about the euro zone.   But copper rose, and analysts attributed that partly to an appreciation of China's currency that suggested it was confident about its growth prospects.   " This suggests to me that Beijing is sufficiently relaxed about allowing the domestic economy to drive growth and being less dependent on the export sector," said David Thurtell, analyst at Citi. " It shows they are confident that the Chinese economy has sufficient momentum."   China is the world's largest consumer of industrial metals.   Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange was around $8,840 a tonne from $8,595 at Wednesday's close. The metal used in power and construction touched $8,446.25 a tonne on Tuesday, its lowest since Dec. 1.   Weinberg said robust growth in China, which accounts for nearly 40 percent of global copper consumption, was not a given.   " They have huge troubles themselves, high dependence on their exports, they have a strong currency, which makes exports unattractive, they have high inflation," he said.   " There are many troubles ahead, and if anyone is saying everything is going to be alright either they have a crystal ball or they haven't a clue." (Reporting by Susan Thomas editing by William Hardy) |
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krisluke
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11-Aug-2011 22:04
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US jobs data helps Wall St, other shares rise
* World stocks bounce as Wall Street opens up
  * U.S. jobless claims fall to lowest since April   * French banking concerns, funding worries linger   (Updates to U.S. open)   By Leah Schnurr and Natsuko Waki   NEW YORK/LONDON, Aug 11 (Reuters) - Firmer U.S. stocks pulled world shares higher on Thursday as strong U.S. jobs data took some of the focus away from renewed fears about the health of the euro zone banking system.   The U.S. dollar and the euro both jumped more than 4.0 percent against the Swiss franc to hit session highs. Talk of a temporary trading band in the euro/Swiss franc pair helped buoy the euro and the dollar, according to Dan Dorrow, head of research at Faros Trading in Stamford, Connecticut.   U.S. initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 395,000, the lowest level since early April and below economists' forecasts for 400,000. For details, see [ID:nN1E77A099]   " We'll see what happens next week, but the outlook for the August U.S. employment report is still for a result as good as it was in July, maybe better," said Pierre Ellis, a senior economist at Decision Economics in New York.   The anemic pace of growth in the first half of the year has fueled worries of another recession and the improvement in the labor market could help allay those fears. Even so, the optimism generated by the claims report was dampened somewhat by a surprise widening in the trade deficit in June.   U.S. stocks opened up more than 1.0 percent, helped by a rebound in bank shares the day after speculation of trouble at French banks took markets sharply lower.   European shares also cut losses in choppy trade after French President Nicolas Sarkozy office said he was to meet with German Chancellor Angela Merkel to discuss euro zone issues. [.EU]   The MSCI world equity index < .MIWD00000PUS> rose 0.5 percent after earlier losses, while European stocks < .FTEU3> were off just 0.2 percent.   The Dow Jones industrial average < .DJI> gained 109.06 points, or 1.02 percent, to 10,829.00. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index < .SPX> rose 12.68 points, or 1.13 percent, to 1,133.44. The Nasdaq Composite Index < .IXIC> climbed 34.91 points, or 1.47 percent, to 2,415.96.   Nonetheless, markets were on edge after banking sources told Reuters that one bank in Asia had cut credit lines to major French lenders while others in the region were reviewing trades and counterparty risks due to concerns about the exposure of French banks to peripheral euro zone bonds. [ID:nL4E7JB020]   The dollar reached a session high of 0.7614 francs < CHF=> and last traded at 0.7552, up 4 percent. The euro reached a session high of 1.0811 francs < EURCHF=> and last traded at 1.0728, up 4.2 percent. |
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krisluke
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11-Aug-2011 21:25
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Inflation in AsiaQuickening inflation threatens to swell the ranks of people in countries such as China, India and Vietnam already living below the poverty line. Vietnam has the region’s highest annual inflation rate at 21 percent while India’s is 8.6 percent. Rapid rises in prices, especially for food, are a threat to social stability, which in the past decade has been underpinned by the rising living standards that Asia’s robust economic growth has delivered. The Asian Development Bank estimates that a 10 percent increase in food prices drags another 64 million people below the $1.25 a day poverty line. A 20 percent increase increases the number in poverty by 129 million. “Everything is getting much more expensive, but I’m not getting an increase in my salary. I have to dig into my savings,” said Nguyen Bich Lien, 53, a high school teacher, as she bought vegetables at a market in Vietnam’s capital Hanoi. “It costs me 400,000 dong to 500,000 dong [$19 to $24] for one day of shopping, I feel like my money was stolen.” “When my savings are all spent, then I will have to eat less meat and more vegetables,” she said, adding she earns eight million dong a month as the breadwinner of her family because her husband is too sick to work. “I can imagine how much harder low-income workers and farmers have to struggle to make ends meet,” she said. Still, several factors should help buffer Asia from turmoil in the US and Europe. Asia’s dependence on consumers in the West has gradually fallen as trade within the region grew and as expanded middle classes became a bigger engine of growth. Most Asian countries didn’t slide into recession in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis. Those that did, such as Singapore and Hong Kong, rebounded strongly partly because governments had previously banked large surpluses and were able to boost spending. Asian countries, excluding Japan and India, still have low debt compared to the US and Europe and could quickly ramp up borrowing to spend more if worst-case scenarios play out in developed nations. “Policymakers in Asia have plenty of scope to introduce more monetary and fiscal stimulus to support their economies,” said Sukhy Ubhi, an analyst with Capital Economics. Expectations of slowing global growth have also brought down commodity prices. Crude oil has dropped 30 percent since May and should help lower food and energy costs. Yet there are some caveats. China rolled out a massive stimulus program in 2009 to boost lending and bolster growth. Not all the investments were sound and a mountain of bad loans could limit the government’s options should more economic stimulus be necessary. For now, Asian central bankers are likely to pause interest rate hikes for at least some weeks until a measure of calm returns to markets and there’s evidence the US isn’t slipping into recession. Indonesia’s central bank left its benchmark lending rate unchanged at a policy meeting Tuesday. Asian governments face a balancing act as they fight accelerating inflation while economic malaise in the US and turmoil in financial markets threaten to dim the region’s growth. Global stocks were battered this week by the first-ever downgrade of the US credit rating and indicators pointed to stalling recoveries in the US and Europe that could erode demand for Asia’s exports of cars, gadgets, clothing and other goods. Normally that would have Asia’s finance mandarins reaching for their toolkit of interest rate cuts and extra government spending but their options are constrained by inflation that has remained stubbornly high in many countries despite efforts to tame it. The dilemma: Give economies too much of a boost and the high inflation that is undermining gains in living standards will become even more troublesome. Press ahead with the yearlong campaign to bring inflation down and risk a precipitous decline in economic growth just as the US, the world’s biggest economy, teeters on the edge of another recession. Singapore, heavily reliant on the spending power of US consumers, was on Wednesday among the first to acknowledge the increased risks, lowering its economic growth forecast for this year. “It’s a tough balance, but inflation in Asia is going to keep the pressure on policymakers,” said Neeraj Seth, an executive at BlackRock, which manages $3.7 trillion of assets. |
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krisluke
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11-Aug-2011 21:22
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Obama Under PressureStock market turbulence demands serious action on US deficit The Global market turbulence may force Washington’s politicians back into session to find real solutions to the Nation’s skyrocketing debt and deficit, according to an economics expert. C. Fred Bergsten, director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said the debt-ceiling legislation Congress passed last month was just a set of procedures aimed at reducing the deficit over time but did not actually take effect by itself. “That is not good enough,” Mr. Bergsten in an interview Tuesday. “The markets are responding in part to the failure of the legislation to take specific actions that are credible and effective.” The US stock market dove on the back of last Friday’s news that Standard & Poor’s, one of the World’s 3 major credit rating agencies, downgraded the US credit rating for the 1st time in the Nation’s history. “It’s a combination of things that had led to the weakness of the equity markets here in the US and Europe, and in Asian markets as well,” said Mr. Bergsten, a former assistant secretary of the US Treasury. The factors included a bleak economic outlook in the US, policy implications from the debt-ceiling legislation and financial risks coming out of the downgrade, Mr. Bergsten said. “We focus a lot in the discussion about the downgrade and the debt-ceiling legislation,” he said, “but maybe the most important development over the last couple of weeks was the sharp reduction in the estimate of the US economic growth.” The US economy expanded 1.3% in Q-2 this year, below market expectations. Q-1 growth rate was revised downward to just 0.4%, the weakest since the recession ended 2 yrs ago. The revisions going back several years showed the recession had been worse than people had thought earlier. All these come at a time when the US and Europe are under severe pressure to trim debts and deficits, which call for policies that would slow down the economy even further, Mr. Bergsten said. “I regret the fact that the US has been downgraded,” Mr. Bergsten said, “but I think from an analytical standpoint, it’s correct.” He said none of the downgrades were likely to have very much real economic effect, as shown in the rising prices of US Treasury bonds in recent days. The downgrade would have made US Treasury bills less attractive to investors and resulted in the rise of interest rates. But the fact is that there are few attractive alternatives for investors. Mr. Bergsten said the Euro was a natural alternative but Europe has its problems, so there had been little willingness to move out of USDs to Euros. Other currencies the Yen, the Australian Dollar, the Canadian Dollar, increasingly the RMB , a still pretty small in terms of their accessibility, he said. “The same thing is true in the housing market,” Mr. Bergsten said. “I don’t think the downgrade of Fannie and Freddie would have very much further adverse effects on the housing market.” The prolonged and unedifying debt debate of the past few months offers further evidence of Washington’s inability to work together to address big issues in a highly polarized political environment. “Our political process has failed to deal effectively with our budget problem,” Bergsten said. “Therefore, the U.S. budget deficit is on a totally unsustainalbe trajectory over the next five, 10, 20 years.” However, politicians could still find real solutions to the economic and fiscal chaos, “but probably only in response to sharp pressures from the market,” he said. “I hope that these market pressures which have been so pronounced over the last few days would help focus their attention and get them back quickly to work on a real deal to cut the budget and, at the same time, strengthen the economy in the short term.” Mr. Bergsten said. He likened the situation to the rollout of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) in Y 2008. When the Bush administration 1st proposed the TARP legislation to the Congress, the House of Representatives voted it down, and then the markets collapsed, 3 days later, the House came back and passed the legislation. He suggested 3 things should be done to address the economic challenges. First, both parties should agree on a program that consists of tangible, concrete spending cuts and revenue increases. Second, those measures should phase in gradually, as immediate implementation of budget cutting measures would further weaken the economy and even throw it into recession. Third, the budget measures should deal with fundamental problems of the economy, such as increasing the retirement age for Social Security and the eligibility age for Medicare. “Both social security and medicare programs will become insolvent over time if they are not shored up with reforms of that type,” Mr. Bergsten said. |
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krisluke
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11-Aug-2011 21:08
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Four candidates eligible to run for President Singapore said it will issue certificates of eligibility to four applicants who plan to offer themselves as candidates in the island’s presidential election this month. Tony Tan, former deputy chairman of the Government of Singapore Investment Corp., and Tan Kin Lian, who was chief executive officer of insurer NTUC Income, are two of the four successful applicants, the Presidential Elections Committee said in a statement today. The others are Tan Cheng Bock, who was a member of parliament from the ruling People’s Action Party, and Tan Jee Say, a former civil servant and opposition politician. The four candidates are seeking to become the city-state’s third president since the constitution was amended 20 years ago to allow citizens to vote for what has been a largely ceremonial role. The change gave the president the responsibility of safeguarding the national reserves and veto rights on government budgets and key appointments to public office. “The Committee deliberated on the merits of each application, taking into account the information provided by the applicant and obtained from various government agencies,” it said. It rejected two applicants who didn’t meet the constitution’s requirements for a presidential candidate. The certificate is a requirement before a person can be nominated to run for president. Nominations will take place Aug 17 and the election is scheduled for Aug 27. The successful candidate will hold the office for a six-year term, according to the government’s website. During campaigning, each candidate will be given two 10-minute blocks of free air time on television and will be allowed to hold one rally at designated locations. The presidential election will take place more than three months after Singaporeans elected a government. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s ruling party retained power in May with the smallest margin of popular votes since independence in 1965, after a record number of citizens cast their ballots and tripled the number of opposition members in parliament. |
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krisluke
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11-Aug-2011 20:37
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U.S. jobless claims fall to 4-month low
WASHINGTON, Aug 11 (Reuters) - New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits dropped to a four-month low last week, government data showed on Thursday, a rare dose of good news for an economy that has been battered by a credit rating downgrade and falling share prices.
  Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 395,000, the Labor Department said, the lowest level since the week ended April 2.   Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims steady at 400,000. The prior week's figure was revised up to 402,000 from the previously reported 400,000.   The Federal Reserve said on Tuesday economic growth was considerably weaker than expected and unemployment would fall only gradually. The U.S. central bank promised to keep interest rates near zero until at least mid-2013.   Hiring accelerated in July after abruptly slowing in the past two months. However, there are worries that a sharp sell-off in stocks and a nasty fight between Democrats and Republicans over raising the government's debt ceiling could dampen employers' enthusiasm to hire new workers.   The continued improvement in the labor market could help to allay fears of a new recession, which have been stoked by the economy's anemic growth pace in the first half of the year.   A Labor Department official said there was nothing unusual in the state-level claims data, adding that only one state had been estimated.   The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends, slipped 3,250 to 405,000. Economists say both initial claims and the four-week average need to drop close to 350,000 to signal a sustainable improvement in the labor market.   The number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid dropped 60,000 to 3.69 million in the week ended July 30.   The number of Americans on emergency unemployment benefits fell 26,309 to 3.16 million in the week ended July 23, the latest week for which data is available.   A total of 7.48 million people were claiming unemployment benefits during that period under all programs, down 89,945 from the prior week. (Reporting by Lucia Mutikani Editing by Neil Stempleman) |
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krisluke
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11-Aug-2011 20:34
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Japan's unpopular PM signals he's ready to quit
Japan's Prime Minister Naoto Kan leaves the venue after his news conference in Tokyo
  TOKYO (Reuters) - Unpopular Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan signalled on Wednesday he is ready to resign in the coming weeks after parliament made headway on key legislation, setting the stage for Japan's sixth prime minister in five years.   Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda, a low-key fiscal conservative, is a key contender to succeed Kan.   But sceptics question whether any new leader will fare much better than his five predecessors, none of whom lasted long in office and who all struggled to implement policies to end two decades of economic stagnation and fix the deep structural problems of a fast-ageing society.   " When these two laws pass, I want to implement what I have said I plan to do," Kan told lawmakers before a lower house panel approved that bill, passage of which Kan has said was a prerequisite for his resignation.   Ruling an opposition lawmakers agreed to push the second bill that Kan wants passed through the lower house on Friday, Japanese median reported. Kan's Democratic Party was planning to vote on a new leader as early as August 28, media also said.   A new prime minister will have to find funds to rebuild Japan's northeast from the ravages of the massive March tsunami despite public debt already twice the $5 trillion (3.07 trillion pounds) economy, forge a new energy policy in the wake of the nuclear crisis at a crippled power plant and tackle tax and social security reforms.   Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda, who like Kan sees reining in ballooning public debt as a policy priority, appears to have pole position. Surveys show, however, that he lacks appeal among ordinary voters and his calls for higher levies could make him an unpopular choice in some quarters of the ruling party.   Whether to raise taxes and how to pull the world's third-biggest economy out of deflation will likely be a focus of the party race, with some potential contenders calling for more aggressive loosening of monetary policy and wary of a plan to double the sales tax to 10 percent by mid-decade.   UNCERTAIN FUTURE   Some analysts hope that replacing Kan, whose policy flip-flops and abrasive personality have irked both ruling and opposition lawmakers, would allow smoother cooperation with the opposition, which controls parliament's upper house and can block legislation.   " There are a lot of things going on in both (main ruling and opposition) parties that mean it is possible that more effective government could happen," said Chuo University professor Steven Reed.   Others question whether the opposition, keen to capitalise on the Democrats' sagging support, will cooperate on much beyond an extra budget needed to fund reconstruction from the tsunami.   " The (opposition) Liberal Democratic Party is aiming at an early election, perhaps early next year," said Tomoaki Imai, a political science professor at Nihon University.   Nor is it certain that a new leader will have more success in managing a ruling party often split over policies and plagued by personal rivalries, not least between allies and enemies of scandal-tainted party heavyweight Ichiro Ozawa, now facing trial for suspected misreporting of political donations.   The Democrats swept to power in 2009 riding a wave of voter discontent and hunger for change after half a century of nearly unbroken rule by the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).   But the novice party has struggled to fulfil campaign pledges including a promise to put more cash in the hands of households rather than companies, and are now trailing the opposition in terms of voter support.   Kan has set three conditions for keeping a pledge to hand over to his party's younger generation made two months ago as the price for surviving a no-confidence vote.   One of those conditions, the enactment of an extra budget to help fund recovery from the massive March earthquake and tsunami, has already been met.   A second condition -- enactment of the bill allowing the government to borrow more to fund this year's $1 trillion budget -- now looks all but certain to be met by the end of the month.   Kan, who advocates Japan wean itself from reliance on nuclear power, also wants parliament to pass a law promoting renewable sources of energy such as solar power before quitting.   Japanese media said that bill was also likely to pass after expected revisions to meet opposition concerns. |
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krisluke
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11-Aug-2011 20:31
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ANALYSIS-Fed low-rate promise seen as opening salvo for QE3
(Repeats to additional subscribers)
  By Pedro Nicolaci da Costa   WASHINGTON, Aug 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve appears increasingly likely to embark on another round of monetary stimulus if the economy continues to lose momentum.   The central bank on Tuesday took the unprecedented step of promising it would keep interest rates near zero for a set period of time -- at least until 2013 -- and said it was exploring other options to support a flagging recovery.   If economic growth slows further and the 9.1 percent jobless rate remains elevated, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke seems likely to act despite the objections of some of his colleagues.   " We now see a greater-than-even chance that (the Fed) will resume quantitative easing later this year or in early 2012," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a research note. " The committee would probably ease policy further if its economic forecast converged to our own, more downbeat view."   The central bank's June forecasts for economic growth between 2.7 percent and 2.9 percent are already looking overly optimistic, particularly after data showing the first half's performance had been much weaker than first thought.   Economists in a Reuters poll this week are now, on median, looking for just a 1.7 percent rise in gross domestic product for 2011.   What a third round of policy easing might involve is still unclear. The most obvious would be to resume asset purchases, despite the controversial nature of the last round, if only because it is already familiar ground.   Any such action would come with argument -- even the low-rates pledge on Tuesday elicited three dissenting votes, the most in almost 20 years.   SURPRISE VALUE WANING   Some analysts are still hoping Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has a trick or two left up his sleeve - even if they fear his sleights of hand offer diminishing returns these days.   A quick look at the markets was a case in point.   The Fed's pledge to keep interest rates low until at least mid-2013, plus announcement that it was also exploring other policy options, led to a hefty rebound in stocks on Tuesday.   But on Wednesday global equities were again deeply in the red, this time on worries that France and its banking system might be the next victim of Europe's debt crisis.   As a scholar of the Great Depression, Bernanke has made it clear he prefers to err on the side of doing too much rather than sit idly as the economy wilts.   Given the weak nature of the recovery despite the Fed's zero interest rate policy and some $2.3 trillion worth of bond buying, many economists question whether monetary policy can be effective in the current environment.   Others, however, say there is plenty more the Fed could do.   Bernanke himself has cited the possibility of aiming for slightly higher inflation, or so-called price-level targeting, for a time as a tool still available to the central bank, although he has dismissed it as too dangerous.   Still, if the economy gets weak enough to rekindle the threat of deflation -- continually falling prices -- it is something Bernanke and his colleagues could consider and analysts suggest should think about.   " The Fed cannot be out of ammunition as long as it can buy assets by printing money," said Arnold Kling, scholar with the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. " The Fed should be trying to expand the money supply. If anything, a little more inflation would be a blessing."   But pushing for higher prices is a tough sell to the public, so some analysts suggest the Fed would have to frame any such argument in terms of jobs. Creating inflation and increasing the incentive for people to go out and spend could be a stimulant for businesses to invest and hire new workers.   MAJORITY RULE   The Fed's unconventional policy steps to date are not without risks, which is why they have elicited both external criticism and internal dissent. Three regional Fed presidents from Dallas, Minneapolis and Philadelphia, already skeptical of QE2, voted against the vow to hold rates near zero until 2013.   Some of the regional Fed presidents who do not have a voting slot on the Fed's policy committee this year probably felt the same way. There could be a better sense of just how divided the committee was when the minutes of the meeting are released in three weeks.   Recent policy pronouncements offer a flavor. Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig is a reliable critic of anything that smacks of inflation risks.   Lately, he has been joined by others.   " Given current inflation trends, additional monetary stimulus at this juncture seems likely to raise inflation to undesirably high levels and do little to spur real growth," Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said two weeks ago.   St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who recently said he would support further Fed action if the economy weakened, also has some reservations about keeping rates super-low for a lengthy time.   Bullard argued in a paper a year ago that the Fed's use of the phrase " extended period" to frame the period of low interest rates could dispirit consumers about the future to such an extent that it creates a persistent malaise.   But if Tuesday's vote shows anything, it is that Bernanke is prepared to push for what thinks is right -- opposition or not -- rather than wait for a non-existent consensus that might risk seeing the economy slide back into recession. (Additional reporting by Ann Saphir) |
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krisluke
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11-Aug-2011 00:12
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Dr. Tan Cheng Bock (simplified Chinese: 陈 清 木 traditional Chinese: 陳 清 木 pinyin: Chén Qī ngmù Pe̍ h-ō e-jī : Tân Chheng-bo̍ k born 26 April 1940) is a politician and medical doctor from Singapore. Tan was a People's Action Party (PAP) Member of Parliament in Singapore politics for 26 years (1980-2006) and the first non cabinet minister elected into the People's Action Party Central Executive Committee (1987-96). * Do note that the most important element is wood (木 )... ... |
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krisluke
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11-Aug-2011 00:07
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krisluke
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11-Aug-2011 00:06
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Nomination Day for Presidential Election on Aug 17 - CNA, 3 August 2011, 1717 hrs SINGAPORE: Singaporeans will go to the polls on August 27 (Sat) if there's a contest for the Presidential Election. The Writ of Election, naming August 17 as Nomination Day for the Presidential Election, was issued by Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong on Wednesday. The Nomination Centre will be at People's Association at King George's Avenue. President SR Nathan, has said he won't be contesting the election after serving two six-year terms. But five potential candidates have indicated their interest. Four of them - former Deputy Prime Minister Dr Tony Tan, former Ayer Rajah MP Dr Tan Cheng Bock, former NTUC Income chief, Tan Kin Lian and former opposition member Tan Jee Say - have submitted their applications for a Certificate of Eligibility to contest the election. One other - Andrew Kuan - has collected the forms. But more candidates could still come forward, as those interested have another three days till August 6 to submit their application forms. The Presidential Elections Committee will assess their applications and issue certificates to those it judges to be of integrity, good character and reputation, with the necessary experience for the post of Elected President. This includes executive and financial experience in government or a statutory board or a company worth at least S$100 million, for at least three years. Nomination papers for the Presidential Election are now available for collection at the Elections Department during normal office hours, until Nomination Day on August 17. Aside from the Certificate of Eligibility, which says candidates qualified to contest the polls have to submit a deposit of S$48,000 (which is returned if they get more than 12.5% of the votes) either at the Accountant-General's Department in High Street, or at the Nomination Centre on Nomination Day. A Political Donation Certificate issued by the Registrar of Political Donations is also needed. This is required under the Political Donation Act which seeks to prevent foreigners from interfering in Singapore's domestic politics through funding of candidates and political associations. Under the Act, political associations and election candidates are not allowed to accept donations except from permissible donors, and the receipt of anonymous donations is restricted to less than S$5,000 in total per reporting period. Application for the Political Donation Certificate has to be made by submitting, in person or through an authorised representative, a pre-election donation report and a pre-election declaration to the Registrar of Political Donations at the Elections Department. The deadline for this is 1pm on August 13. The Returning Officer for the Presidential Election is Mr Yam Ah Mee, the Chief Executive Director of the People's Association. Mr Yam was also the Returning Officer for the May 2011 General Election. |
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krisluke
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11-Aug-2011 00:01
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