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Fellowship of the Shares
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lausk22
Veteran |
26-Aug-2007 22:35
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In all cases, we win some, we lose some. As long as in the end, the sum of it is more plus than minus, then we win. I don't think one will always profit from every trade. |
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Manikamaniko.
Master |
26-Aug-2007 20:21
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The full moon is on Tuesday....
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Manikamaniko.
Master |
26-Aug-2007 20:20
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Learning to save our money in time is the best thing to learn...
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elfinchilde
Elite |
26-Aug-2007 19:37
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yeps, learning's always good. :) have been on a pretty steep learning curve myself, esp this year. so that's good. :) |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
26-Aug-2007 19:35
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haha, as you say then. elfie's not bothered about much these days. let people (including meee! haha) talk as much as they want. as long as at the end of the day, i make my profits and they are sufficient, it is enough. i don't gotta be right, or the best, or whatever. the market dictates and the market proves the winners and the losers. to me, as long as i make enough for what i want, it's ok. the rest, as hamlet says, is silence. :) cheers! new week ahead. sigh. elfie dowan to work anymore. kbkbkbkbkbkbkkbkbkbk! wail. sigh. |
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Manikamaniko.
Master |
26-Aug-2007 19:33
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Elfin... :) Before I became a trader, I was having tuition classes in the stock market...ie. learning |
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Manikamaniko.
Master |
26-Aug-2007 19:29
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There goes again... To me, a loss is already a loss... there's no such thing as a 'paper loss'!... That is just an ostritch's view of things... the reality is it is money already lost, paper or no paper... Whether the loss is $100 million or $10,000, it is lost. Whether they will make back or not is a totally separate issue. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
26-Aug-2007 19:14
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haha, no ipunter, the loss is borne by those who realised the loss. otherwise, it is only paper. long term investors, by virtue of sitting long term, could very well regain their cost and even make a profit over the years. :) how abt a video showing FA and TA instead... tradechancellor: yes. if the fed allows the market to drop for now, then there is a chance of a year end rally. but if they don't, what there is, is a premature rally. bigger bubble bigger pop. natural flow of things. china will influence, but currently on the global front, all eyes are only watching the US and the yen carry. there's bird flu too, of course. these are factors lurking at back of the mind. but anyway; sometimes, thinking too much is a burden and not necessary. first instincts are usually better. too much data clouds the mind. just gotta distinguish between instinct and impulse. after all is said and done, words are just that, theory. it's practical that determines whether one loses or win. i'll be the first to tell you that i'd unashamedly dump all my theory/talk the moment the charts show else-wise, and just act according to the emerging trend. i do wonder how much credence to give FA tho, when it appears that the pure TA-ists are the ones who have survived this fall almost unscathed? pardon, am still finding my own style.. ipunter, what were you before you retired? a trader? |
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Manikamaniko.
Master |
26-Aug-2007 19:00
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Some time back in this thread, there was some discussion on Astrology... This interesting video is about host James Randi's demonstration on who can do better in the stock market... a Technical Analyst or an Astrologer... Both were given a chance to show their skills in real stock market trading... the conclusion is rather obvious... |
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lausk22
Veteran |
26-Aug-2007 17:40
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so far, it appears only two Supreme Masters have done the Mission Impossible...Dumped stocks before the tumble......No wonder, they have attained Supreme Masters status....They must be supremely happy with their foresight and now supremely proud on hindsight...:) |
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TradeChancellor
Veteran |
26-Aug-2007 15:11
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Oh Elf! I just thought of something, the scenerios will be an interplay between fed and BOJ actions, how about the giant panda bear - china? Read somewhere in the forum that the chinese might allow the institutions to invest overseas, likely to restrict to HK first. Some actions by China might tilt the consequences of the FED-BOJ decisions too? |
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TradeChancellor
Veteran |
26-Aug-2007 14:54
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Hi Elf, thanx a lot! I'm much clearer now! Good, now i can practice these principles for my counters. Great article. Are you an economist/financial analyst? Hmm, if i'm not wrong, since fed rate cuts is like sweeping the problem under the carpet, isn't it better to not take action and let the bb's bleed a little? Not having rate cuts means they'll bleed faster and thus force them to revamp their investment strategy (cut away financial instruments that have the subprime $ in it). Also it will force them to fundmentally improve their business models too. Also, not having rate cuts might cause some credit crunch, thus causing the bb's to sell away some of their equities, thus deflating the bubble a little? So when the bubble is smaller, the impact of a burst is thus much smaller too. Just my layman take of events and policies ;) |
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Manikamaniko.
Master |
26-Aug-2007 13:57
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Talking about "zero sum game", when a stock plunges from say $1.00 to $0.10 within a short period on very low volume, and then no buyers come in to pick up the cheap cheap shares, a lot of money just "evaporates" , "go 'poof' into thin air" .... |
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Manikamaniko.
Master |
26-Aug-2007 13:49
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BaseerAhmed... :) |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
26-Aug-2007 13:45
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anway. on to another topic. elfie's kinda bored on a slow sunday. so let's let the mind wander free. hehe. everyone's been going on about the zero sum game. which most take to mean as someone loses, someone wins. fair enough, but it's the details that are interesting. that's where we go into binary game theory (by john nash. anyone watched 'a beautiful mind'?). so the following are insane elfin calculations--yah, i'm too free haha, so pls don't take any of the below too seriously, but use of it what will aid you--in this current market, one needs to look at macro factors, because it's the macros which swing the market. This is less of actual stock technicals, but i guess, if we had to put a name to it, 'macro techs'?? because there are two current big swing macro factors that will influence the market in the near term--ie, sept to dec. The Fed decision, and the BOJ decision. Because we must remember that the money game is a linked game. It is not simply about the subprime, and US home owners defaulting. it is about the global flow of money. The damn subprime is linked to one bigger issue: the yen carry trades. Because if big boys are losing big (think DBS to the tune of 2.4 billion, when they first under-reported as 1.3 bil), and the funds for their play is going down because the yen rates are increasing and no one is lending, then, they need to take money when they can (ie, take the rebounds), and they need to make money when they can (ie, then short it low). A frog-in-the-well mentality of "my company's not linked to the subprime at all, its FA report show that it's doing well, so it'll not go down because the BBs will not sell it!" does not serve one at all. Because bottomline of a BB's mentality: i'm losing big in one area, i'm making profits in another. What will i do? Take profits and shore up the losses, the devil takes the hindmost. Markets move because of sentiment. The intentions of the BBs set the game. Then, if people think it'll go down, they sell, so it will exacerbate the cycle. so if we were to apply the binary game matrix to the current market, this is how it will look like. 1) Fed cuts rates: market will massively rally up. That's short term. BUT, as historical precedents show, everytime the Fed cuts, the dow tests new lows in the next three months. for the simple reason that the fundamental problems have not been solved. 2) Fed holds, or doesn't cut sufficient: Markets will backlash, since this current rise is entirely on hopes of a fed cut of 50 basis points. ie, markets have already factored in a rate cut. 3) BOJ maintains rates (meeting sept 19, one day aft the Fed): markets maintain, or up. 4) BOJ raises rates--hence carry trades will start to unwind: markets will drop as traders unwind their carry positions. down. Put these four variations together in a binary 0-1 matrix. Short term to oct, what you get is an even toss-up: either massive up (best case scenario: BOJ maintains, Fed cuts: the 1-1 situation), or massive down (Fed holds, BOJ raises: ie, an 0-0 situation), or somewhere in between (the other two possible scenarios). but long term, post dec. What's it likely to be? The subprime has not been resolved. It's only swept under the carpet. and the longer the problem is held off, the more massive the damage is likely to be. I mean, look at it: we had signs since march! Currently, lehman brothers, the biggest underwriters of subprime mortgages in the US, and HSBC, are laying off workers. Citibank and Bank of America are asking for breaking of the rules. What does that tell you? Does it matter how strong the singapore market is, if globally the funds---the BBs with the money--are going down? that's something to think about. elfie has only one conclusion for the longer term: hold no stocks. buy puts for march 08. methodically, on every rally of the dow and sti, starting sept 19th. no big positions needed. will i continue to play if there are rallies? of course, on a technical basis, lightly. But when the long term signs are clear, then one basic rule of investing holds true: never give up long term gains for the short term. usual disclaimer: above strictly my insane opinions. i'm definitely no expert. and have been proven wrong on many occasions. haha. so caveat emptor. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
26-Aug-2007 13:22
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additional: don't even try using MACD for short term and intraday trading. you'd likely kill yourself cos it's too slow for this kind of trading. and yah, pikachu, TA is half art half science. the science is in the numbers, but the elusive art, is in the interpretation of those numbers. us techies, we're star gazers and star readers. haha. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
26-Aug-2007 13:08
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tradechancellor: SJ charts: MACD: i'll use ho bee as example (and no, not vested): the black i meant was the bars actually, not the centre line (0.0 value). if all the bars are above the centre line, implication is long term uptrend (with waves up and down, of course): so ho bee from oct last year all the way to jun 1 is a general uptrend. but you can see the ceasing of the uptrend from abt 10th apr to jun 1, when the black bars start going down--the sell signal, when the red line cut above the black bars, came on 13th april. So going by MACD, from 13th april, you would not choose to enter the counter at all. until perhaps 15th or 16 aug, when the red cuts below the black bars, all below the centre line. implication is bottoming out of the downtrend. note: might be dangerous to play this tho: because you're essentially buying for an uptrend on a long term downtrend. ie, tech rebound. whether the rebound is true or not (ie, true rebound/breakout) is confirmed only if the black bars can hit above the middle line. If all the bars are below the middle line and consistently fail to break above it, then it's long term downtrend (eg, gems tv, from april 12 to now). note: the above is just for MACD. generally, i wouldn't use just one indicator on a counter, esp when deciding crucial points like breakouts or buy/sell signal. But MACD is good to use for long term counters, esp when deciding to maintain the decision to hold. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
26-Aug-2007 12:47
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hihi singaporegal! *hugs* 'affected badly': haha. depends on your point of view. this correction did wipe out quite a fair bit of my profits for the year; but overall am still up about 20% for the year. so i guess that's ok, albeit a bit disappointing. but anw, it's just lessons learnt along the way, so gotta take it in a positive light. :) am almost all in cash now; and apart from some rapid trading on warrants (have been playing strangles) and a few counters, don't intend to go in for the long haul just yet: i figure we'll have about 3 weeks of relative peace (ie, stagnant to up) til about sept 17. then, depending on the fed and BOJ decision, it's either a massive upswing or a massive downswing. am personally not willing to take the risk. (more on the mathematics later) am currently trying to decide my own movement for the next 3 weeks really. figure the sti has upside to go to 3450, then depending on whether it can break the V formation, it's either a greater fall or up (yes, sounds very duh, but the fine details are what matters): if up, the level is 3,600. if down, it's to 3045. ie, at this stage, risk to reward ratio is 2: 1. no go sign for long term counters. but for short term trading, still undecided... and one more thing too: i do need to limit my trading esp since i need to focus on my job now. will be out of the country and on course for a full five weeks end sept to early nov. so in a rush to hand in projects before i leave. and considering that 5 weeks is a long time in this volatile market, certainly don't intend to leave my funds exposed. |
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TradeChancellor
Veteran |
26-Aug-2007 12:18
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yup, i think a basic TA course will do some good to me. TA + FA combined will then help me better in managing risk, maximise profit and stock selection. It will be better than just relying on FA alone ;) |
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pikachu
Veteran |
26-Aug-2007 11:07
Yells: "Holy Cow!" |
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I think charts are easier to look at than financial ratios! However, TA seems like half art and half science to me. |
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