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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
19-Jun-2013 11:56
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Three pitfalls the Fed faces on path to tapering WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — It has become fairly clear after all of the talk and turbulence surrounding the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting that the central bank wants to pull back on its easy policy stance if it can. “Market participants have come to accept that the Fed is not going to purchase securities ad infinitum and that the wind-down process will probably be implemented later this year,” said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies & Co. Odds that the Fed would increase the size of its $85 billion-a-month asset purchase plan are now seen as very low. But there are a few potential pitfalls that could damage the economy and force the central bank to reverse course, some analysts say. Here are three of them: debt ceiling, deflation and a spooked market. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
19-Jun-2013 10:01
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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How to trade the Federal Reserve decision ....
Here’s how stocks, bonds, commodities and dollar may reactThe main question hanging over financial markets right now is when and how the FOMC will scale back its bond purchases, seen as one of the biggest drivers for investment moves this year. After a two-day meeting, the FOMC will release its monetary-policy decision on Wednesday and afterwards Ben Bernanke will answer reporters’ questions at a news conference. That’s why Wednesday is shaping up to be a big markets day. MarketWatch reporters analyzed how various asset classes may react, depending on the message the Fed sends to the financial markets. U.S. stocks Expect the recent volatility in the U.S. stock market to continue on Wednesday in the wake of the Fed announcement. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has made triple-digit moves in six of its last seven sessions, with uncertainty over Fed moves cited as the largest underlying factor. The FOMC’s policy decision typically draws a knee-jerk reaction from the U.S. stock market, with equities often revising their initial move, sometimes multiple times. Strategists say they do not expect the central bank to signal any immediate change in policy, and the market has already priced in expectations that the Fed will hold its federal-funds-target rate near zero and continue its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases. Given the market has rallied this week ahead of the Fed’s decision and Bernanke’s news conference, there’s a strong argument to be made that Wall Street will relinquish at least some of its recent gains if the Fed chief manages to calm investor worries about the central bank’s policies. U.S. stocks rallied Monday and Tuesday “in anticipation that Bernanke is not going to taper soon. If he does what we think, the market is going to give up some ground, because what he is going to say is going to be fully priced into the market. When you anticipate good news, you buy stocks when you finally get the good news, you sell,” said Hugh Johnson, chairman of Hugh Johnson Advisors. The S& P 500 is up 1.3% so far this week. And, should the FOMC and/or Bernanke do the unexpected and signal tapering — or a scaling back of bond purchases — is imminent, equities would give up far more than two days of gains. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
19-Jun-2013 09:24
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Currency war?Japan, its markets and monetary policy are also factors in Wall Street’s volatility and possibly on the mind of Bernanke and his colleagues. The U.S.’s still-high rate of unemployment and low rate of inflation are two compelling reasons for the Fed not to reduce its asset purchases and to keep the federal funds rate at zero, or close to it. But there is a third reason as well, Johnson believes, and that is to keep downward pressure on the dollar, “particularly when Japan is now clearly in the game of trying to put downward pressure on the yen.” “I don’t want to say things are not cooperative, but let’s not be too naive,” Johnson said. Interest rates in Japan as well as the direction of the yen have much to do with how U.S. equities are performing, said Pavlik at Banyan Partners. The so-called carry trade involves converting yen into dollars, then using the U.S. currency to buy U.S. equities. “As the value of the yen stays low, and Japanese interest rates stay low, then the value of what they purchased increases, so it’s a very beneficial trade. They have almost free money to buy assets that are increasing in value,” Pavlik said. “But when rates in Japan start to rise — think too much liquidity — all of a sudden it works against those that borrowed yen as the cost of yen starts to increase, it’s like having a floating-rate home-equity loan,” said Pavlik, who adds that after being so low for so long, the recent rise in Japanese interest rates “starts to get people nervous.” |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
19-Jun-2013 08:58
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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U.S. stocks rally, applauding Fed in advanceDow industrials extend string of triple-digit moves into sixth sessionNEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks rallied on Tuesday, with a two-day advance wiping out last week’s losses, as Wall Street gave an advance thumbs up to the upcoming Federal Reserve monetary-policy announcement. “You can bet your last dollar, [Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke] is going to try to assure the markets that the Federal Reserve is not going to taper anytime soon,” said Hugh Johnson, chairman of Hugh Johnson Advisors, referring to the timing and pace of potential reduction in asset purchases by the Fed, which is currently buying $85 billion in bonds each month. The FOMC begun its two-day meeting on Tuesday, with a monetary-policy announcement and Bernanke’s news conference due on Wednesday. “Folks are feeling a little confident that Bernanke might be able to settle down some of the concerns when they meet and he has his press conference,” said Bob Pavlik, chief market strategist at Banyan Partners. Marking a sixth consecutive triple-digit move, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose as much as 160 points, and finished up 138.38 points, or 0.9%, at 15,318.23, with General Electric Co. pacing gains that included all but two of its 30 components. “The Fed meeting is the biggest issue, yesterday and today,” said Johnson of the two-session rally. That said, equities are likely to give up some recent gains should Bernanke succeed in reassuring investors, “because what he is going to say is going to be fully priced into the market,” he said. Read Market Extra on how stocks and other asset classes could react. The S& P 500 index climbed 12.77 points, or 0.8%, to 1,651.81, with industrials the best performing of its 10 major sectors. The Nasdaq Composite added 30.05 points, or 0.9%, to 3,482.18. For every stock falling, more than two gained on the New York Stock Exchange, where 634 million shares traded. Composite volume topped 3 billion. Economic reports released before the open had U.S. housing starts rising 6.8% last month and U.S. consumer prices mildly higher in May. As investors look to Wednesday’s conclusion of the FOMC meeting, President Barack Obama signaled the likely departure of Bernanke when his term expires in 2014. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
18-Jun-2013 09:14
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Stock rise Fed feeds Dow’s triple-digit moves ....
Dow industrials extend streak of triple-digit moves into fifth sessionNEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks surged Monday, with the Dow industrials extending their triple-digit moves into a fifth session, as investors latched onto any clues ahead of Wednesday’s monetary-policy decision by the FOMC. “I’m a little surprised investors are willing to get this much in front of the FOMC meeting, just on the off chance the Fed says something meaningful,” Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has made a triple-digit move in 11 of the 16 sessions that followed Bernanke’s May 22 briefing to Congress. After rallying as much as 191 points, the Dow finished up 109.67 points, or 0.7%, at 15,179.85. The S& P 500 added 12.31 points, or 0.8%, to 1,639.04, with energy and technology pacing sector gains that included all but one of its 10 industry groups. The Nasdaq Composite rose 28.58 points, or 0.8%, to 3,452.13. For every stock falling, two gained on the New York Stock Exchange, where 677 million shares traded. Composite volume neared 3.1 billion. Investors had dramatically curbed their enthusiasm for equities after the Financial Times on Monday afternoon published an article saying Bernanke would likely signal the central bank is close to cutting back on its $85 billion in monthly bond buys, while also reiterating any such move is dependant on the economy. But the FT writer behind the piece, U.S. economics editor Robin Harding, then tweeted that he was only offering his view point, and had not insider knowledge of what the Fed would do. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
17-Jun-2013 16:47
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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How China Could Douse Optimism From the Fed...一 波 未 平 一 波 又 起 ... |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
17-Jun-2013 09:03
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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“I think people are freaking out about nothing  ,” he said.
As for the decision to start raising interest rates, that’s a whole other issue, which the Fed has linked to a 6.5% unemployment rate. But even that shouldn’t be a huge cause for alarm, Greenhaus said. The last time the Fed raised rates after a stretch of easing measures was in June 2004. The federal funds rate was raised to 1.25% from 1%, and the S& P 500 fell 7% over the next six weeks. In fact, the Fed hiked the rate four more times that year, finally up to 2.25%, but by that time stocks had rallied 14% from their August lows. “The decision to raise interest rates shouldn’t have anything to do with whether the stock market stamps its feet or not,” Greenhaus said. In fact, the Fed likely wanted to throw some volatility into the market back in May after stocks rallied unabated for six months, he said. .... |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
15-Jun-2013 08:52
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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U.S. stocks fall for third week in four before FedIMF urges U.S. central bank to manage any easing moves carefullyNEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks fell on Friday, chalking up a third weekly loss in four, with investors on guard ahead of next week’s monetary-policy decision by the FOMC. “We didn’t get the pullback in May when we thought we would, so it looks like June is giving us some of that,” said Andrew Fitzpatrick, director of investments at Hinsdale Associates Inc. A day after Wall Street rallied on thinking the Federal Reserve would continue record-low interest rates, investors took a cautious stance on the final session of a losing week. The FOMC holds a two-day policy gathering next week, with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke due to hold a news conference Wednesday, after the FOMC decision. Wall Street is tracking economic reports for clues as to whether the economy is strong enough to withstand the much-talked of tapering of Fed stimulus, specifically its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases. “The economy is not where it needs to be for the Fed to cut off stimulus, with inflation coming in under their target and with the jobs report still not being really strong, it still leaves room for the Fed to maintain its policies,” said Fitzpatrick. On Friday, the Fed was advised to step carefully in scaling back from its monetary easing by the IMF, which also cut its U.S. growth outlook for next year to 2.7% from the 3% projected in April. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
15-Jun-2013 08:39
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Stocks tumble again to cap volatile losing weekStocks tumbled again Friday and capped off a volatile week of trading as investors were torn between a mixed batch of economic reports and fears about when the Federal Reserve would begin tapering off its market-friendly stimulus policies. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 105.90 points, or 0.7% to 15,070.80. The S& P's 500 index dropped 9.63, or 0.6%, to 1,626.73 and the Nasdaq composite fell 21.81, or 0.6%, to 3.423.56. For the week, the Dow fell 1.2%, the S& P 500 slid 1.0% and the Nasdaq dropped 1.3%. It was the third negative week of losses out of the past four. Economic reports released Friday showed that industrial production was flat in May and a key consumer sentiment index dipped. Wholesale prices rose more than expected in May on rising food and gas costs, but inflation remained mild otherwise. If inflation remains under control, the Fed can continue to use its economic tools to stimulate the economy. The IMF added to the uncertainty after it said Friday that U.S. government budget cuts that kicked in March 1 were slowing the economy down. ...We should have clearer picture next Thu local time... after Fed Chairman speech.... ...also these figure (Dow 14850, S& P 1598, Nasdaq 3329) from kelvinLim can be useful reference ... |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
14-Jun-2013 13:27
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks rallied on Thursday, with the S& P 500 index marking its best day in five months, bolstered by upbeat economic data and a late-session report in The Wall Street Journal that eased worries about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. This is the article that eased worries: Analysis: Fed Likely to Push Back on Market Expectations of Rate Increase ... |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
14-Jun-2013 09:18
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Stocks leap on easing Fed worries, upbeat dataIn Tokyo, Nikkei index tumbles 6.4%, entering bear marketNEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks rallied on Thursday, with the S& P 500 index marking its best day in five months, bolstered by upbeat economic data and a late-session report in The Wall Street Journal that eased worries about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. U.S. stock indexes were already surging as positive economic reports overrode concern about the Japanese market, but rose to session highs in the wake of the Journal piece. “There’s a Wall Street Journal report about the Fed not likely to do anything at this meeting,” said Dan Greenhaus, chief global strategist at BTIG LLC. A story written by Journal reporter Jon Hilsenrath, considered an influential voice on central-bank policy, said that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke would likely reiterate the Fed expects a “considerable” amount of time to pass between ending the central bank’s bond-buying program and raising short-term rates. The FOMC will issue a monetary-policy decision next week. Tallying its best session since Jan. 2, the S& P’s 500 index rose 23.84 points, or 1.5%, to 1,636.36, with financials pacing gains that included all of its 10 major industry sectors. After falling as much as 41 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose as much as 207, and finished at 15,176.08, up 180.85 points, or 1.2%. After three consecutive sessions of losses, its longest such streak this year, Thursday’s gains cut the Dow’s weekly losses down to 0.5%. The Nasdaq Composite index added 44.94 points, or 1.3%, to 3,445.37. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
13-Jun-2013 09:26
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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There’s more than one way to leave the euroCommentary: Millions fleeing Greece, Spain, Ireland, Italy, PortugalLONDON (MarketWatch) — Over the past few years we have grown used to discussions about one or more countries leaving the euro. The Grexit, the Spexit, and the Quitaly, have become part of the lexicon of the financial markets. There have even been suggestions that the Germans might want to get out — that is the avowed aim of the newly launched Alternative für Deutschland party. It may or may not happen. We’ll find out in the next few years. But of course, there is more than one way to exit the single currency. Countries can stay in, but the people can leave. And on a dramatic scale, that is what now seems to be happening. Europe is starting to see waves of migration on a scale it has not witnessed since the great 19th-century exoduses to the new worlds of America and Australia. ...爱 国 之 心 何 在 ... |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
13-Jun-2013 09:16
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Stocks sink Dow’s longest loss streak this yearWall Street reacts to Fed doubts, Japanese currency movesNEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks tumbled on Wednesday, with the Dow industrials falling for three consecutive days for the first time this year, as the Japanese yen furthered its rise and doubts about monetary policy had investors on edge. “The markets are very much tying off of the Japanese currency and also again, Fed policy, which hasn’t changed, and we don’t think is likely to change this year. But the comments from the various Fed governors are acting as trial balloons,” said Paul Nolte, managing director at Dearborn Partners. “They are getting a sense of the market’s reaction without actually changing policy,” he added. The FOMC will hold a two-day meeting next week. After a 119-point opening leap, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell as much as 140 points and ended at 14,995.23, a loss of 126.79 points, or 0.8%. The S& P 500 index lost 13.61 points, or 0.8%, to 1,612.52, with consumer discretionary pacing losses that extended to all 10 of its major industry groups. The Nasdaq Composite fell 36.52 points, or 1.1%, to 3,400.43. For each stock rising, more than four fell on the New York Stock Exchange, where nearly 686 million shares traded. Composite volume neared 3.2 billion. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
12-Jun-2013 08:26
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Defense The intermediate-term uptrends remain intact, so that hasn't yet changed. But should this trading range get resolved to the downside, it could lead to some more intense selling in the near term. The recent support zones which have been established during the past month inherently provide the opportunity to raise stops, so that if prices happen to turn lower, profits can be booked and protected. And for those with short-term timeframes, it's important to realize that right now, there's just limited follow through. That means expectations for the duration of new trades should be adjusted accordingly. Don't overstay your welcome. If you catch a one- to three-day move, ring the register and move on. Stick and move. That will allow you to defend against adverse moves while still remaining somewhat opportunistic. I'm maintaining high levels of cash right now and deploying capital only when a play comes along that I can't pass up. Keeping a high standard helps avoid overtrading in a choppy environment, allowing me to remain objective and ready for the next big move once it begins. Now all we need is a break of the range. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
12-Jun-2013 08:22
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Discipline Since the November lows, chasing strength has paid off every time, as the trend has continued higher. However, chasing strength within a trading range typically results in quick frustration as price fails to exceed the upper ceiling and instead turns lower. It's imperative to be clear on your timeframe for new positions, as putting on new multi-week positions and then checking the day-to-day fluctuations can prove to be an exercise in frustration. Staying picky and having the discipline to do nothing until price warrants a transaction will serve you particularly well in a trading range. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
12-Jun-2013 08:19
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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So, what's the different mentality that's needed in a period like this? Well, there are a few items I think every market participant needs. Patience The very nature of a trading range is indecision. Buyers defend support but sellers defend resistance, leading to a bit of a standoff. Impatience can drive premature buys in an effort to get on board an expected move. The lack of results that this often produces leaves traders directionally biased, which removes objectivity. It also ties up capital before there's real potential for a payout. Staying patient can prevent unnecessary activity, forcing you to wait for a meaningful advance out of the range or a breakdown from it before committing capital. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
12-Jun-2013 08:16
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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One way to trade a rangebound marketBy Jeff White Depending on your taste, you can either cue up the old campfire favorite " Home on the Range, " or the Ozzy Osbourne track " The Road to Nowhere ." Either is fitting for this market right now, because it's going nowhere — at least for now. It's true that the major averages have shown persistent strength since last November, and year-to-date, but over the past few weeks, they've entered into undeniable trading ranges. They've become stuck, frustrating both bulls and bears alike. The former haven't seen continuation to the upside since the May 22 peak, and the latter haven't gotten much traction on the downside. The May highs have so far held as resistance, while former resistance from April has recently served as support (now that prices are above it). That has given us well-defined boundaries for the restriction of movement, providing clean levels to trade against for reversal-play lovers. Along with that, however, comes the distinct lack of follow through that's always tied to these periods of indecision. It's a basing phase — which is healthy, but it requires a little different mentality until it gets in our rear-view mirror. We'll discuss how to approach it momentarily. First, let's turn to some charts and I'll show you what I'm talking about. Let's begin with the S& P 500. The uptrend channel is still intact, but it's easy to see that the minor price pullback over the past few weeks allowed rising support to catch up with price. That led to a bounce late last week, but it has since stalled out. Price is currently caught right in between April resistance (1597) and the May high (1687). ...more... |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
12-Jun-2013 08:04
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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U.S. stocks dive as volatility returnsNEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks declined sharply Tuesday after the Bank of Japan opted to hold its monetary policy steady, raising concerns that central banks will not provide additional economic stimulus. The U.S. FOMC and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke “have introduced volatility into the market for the first time this year, and part of it has to do with when QE will start to taper, and that has caused a cascade of opinions as to when that will be and what that should mean for stocks,” said Art Hogan, market strategist at Lazard Capital Markets. Investors have been watching U.S. economic data closely for any clues as to when the Federal Reserve may begin to scale back its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases. “It does feel like in the last couple of weeks, news has been affecting all markets, not just regional,” said Richard Slinn, an investment specialist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank in San Francisco. “As [10-year Treasury] yields rise and as that volatility increases, we’ve been rotating,” Slinn says of investors swapping into varying asset classes. On Tuesday, the 10-year Treasury yield traded at 2.183%. Along with Asian and European stocks, the dollar fell sharply against the Japanese yen after the Bank of Japan decided to stay put on its policies, dashing some hopes that the central bank would extend the duration on its ultra-low interest rates to banks. Extending losses into a second session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell as much as 152 points before briefly turning positive, then finished with a 116.57-point, or 0.8%, loss at 15,122.02 with American Express Co. pacing declines that included all but three of its 30 components. The S& P 500 index dropped 16.68 points, or 1%, to 1,626.13, with the financial sector hardest hit among its 10 major industries. The Nasdaq Composite slid 36.82 points, or 1.1%, to 3,436.95. For every stock rising, half a dozen fell on the New York Stock Exchange, where almost 689 million shares traded. Composite volume surpassed 3.3 billion. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
11-Jun-2013 22:14
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Rate shock seen hitting equities hard It appears we’ve got another round of the stocks versus bonds debate on our hands. But contrary to the “Great Rotation” talk that saturated market discussion circles earlier in the year, this one appears to be adding some nuance. The Great Rotation was a concept focused on a potential movement of capital from credit markets into equity markets. That conversation has died down in recent months as market prognosticators soured on the idea of a large-scale desertion of fixed income. But bond markets have had a lousy month, with Treasurys, investment grade, high yield, and emerging markets all falling. That has helped revive the conversation about whether and how investors are moving their money. Barclays researchers are out with a note Tuesday asserting that despite recent bond market underperformance, a rotation from bonds into equities is not likely to occur. Data going back almost 100 years show that a sustained selloff in Treasurys is never directly correlated with a rally in equities, and there is no sign that will change. Instead, a reversal is more likely. Bradley Rogoff, head of U.S. credit strategy at Barclays, writes first about investment-grade fixed-income, which has been the subject of rising rates: ...more... |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
11-Jun-2013 21:58
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Is this market oversold? By Anthony Mirhaydari
After a 4.5% peak-to-trough decline for the Dow Jones Industrial
Average, there is some evidence that a turnaround is warranted. Granted,
this is purely on a technical basis. Because the fundamentals still
stink.
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