Latest Forum Topics / Ferrochina |
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Ferrochina
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Livermore
Master |
23-May-2007 20:51
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Go load up on the warrant! |
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spurs88
Senior |
23-May-2007 16:18
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JP Morgan targets $3.35!!!!!!!!!!!CHEONG AH!!!!!! We factor in Changshu Everbright acquisition numbers, as we believe there is a good chance that the company will complete its acquisition for its remaining 64.55% stake in Changshu Everbright for S$586MM (at an acquisition cost of 10.2x FY06 historical P/E and c.1.6x P/B) by end-August 2007. into our? Acquisition is earnings accretive from FY08E onwards:Taking into account Changshu Everbright in our earnings forecasts and an increased share base (from 449.2MM to 789.1MM) as the acquisition is transaction via a share swap, we lower our EPS forecasts by 36% for FY07 as we have only factored four months of full earnings contribution from Changshu Everbright. The acquisition is earnings accretive from FY08E onwards, as we raise our EPS estimates by 8% and 20% in FY08- 09, respectively. ? and Changshu Everbright?s plant facilities in Changshu, Shanghai. The superstructure of Xinghai and Xingyu production plants were almost completed and are expected to commence operations by end-2007. The upgrading of 1- 150k tpa galvanized steel line has also been completed and is expected to commence operations by end-May 2007. Plant expansion on track: Last week we visited FerroChina?s? our Dec-07 PT to S$3.35 from S$2.50 based on DCF valuation (we lower WACC from 11.0% to 10.3% and a terminal growth rate of 1%). Key risks to our PT are: (1) susceptibility to steel and zinc raw material fluctuations; (2) execution of its high-growth strategy; and (3) leveraged financials. Raise our PT to S$3.35. We reiterate OW on the stock and raise |
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raymondyap
Member |
20-May-2007 16:47
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should hit target price of $2.90 by year end at the rate it is going...... |
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Livermore
Master |
20-May-2007 16:43
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Hi Asterisk, Ok, let you know next time for the next result briefing. I can introduce you to one stock guru over there:) |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
20-May-2007 16:03
![]() Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Acc/Dist and Chaikin are uptrending. Looks moderately bullish |
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Livermore
Master |
17-May-2007 18:32
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Hi Asterisk, The room for presentation is quite small. Maybe it is ok to just come in as they do not check. Let you know when is the next result as I am on their mailing list. I am not a major shareholder. I don't have millions of shares.*ha*. When I go for such results briefing, I am trying to assess how long I should hold onto the shares. For this , it is going to a long long time:). I loaded up on the warrants last Wednesday:). FerrooooooooooooCHINA!! |
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lpkoh5
Senior |
16-May-2007 23:15
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Will it clear $2.30 by this week....why not ![]() |
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handicapper88
Member |
16-May-2007 19:02
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live online Q & A session at SI! |
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lpkoh5
Senior |
16-May-2007 18:09
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Shld cross $2.30 in the near term with ease but when is a good time to sell as indicators r well into the overbought region now...![]() |
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Livermore
Master |
16-May-2007 12:53
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Hi Asterisk/Eastonbay I am not a analyst. Yes, this is one of my counter and the other is Swissco(should have bought Swiber). The rest I have are vested with CPF. Let me know if you wish to come and I can let the invetsor relations people know. It is good to go for such meetings. There is one stock guru there whom I can introduce to you. I basically go to assess how long I should hold onto this stock. Sometimes investor relations people can hint to you what stocks to buy:).I am convinced there is more upside to FerroChina. I am feeling cold because FerroChina is now climbing up the high mountains at the Great Wall and temperature is low:) FerroooooooooCHINA!!!! |
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EastonBay
Master |
16-May-2007 09:24
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livermore, so is this one your other counter? |
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Livermore
Master |
15-May-2007 20:46
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I just attended FerroChina's result briefing today. FerroChina kicks off FY2007 with solid 72.9% rise in 1Q net profit! Some points to note :
FerroooooooooooCHINA!!!!! |
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Livermore
Master |
08-May-2007 17:44
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Remember in one of my earlier posts a few months back, I did mention that FerroChina is in a comsolidated steel industry in China |
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ed88ks
Senior |
08-May-2007 17:09
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Vision of Growth FerroChina is one of China's leading players and growth companies in the steel sector. It has a glowing track record, having achieved multi-fold annual increases in revenues in recent years. What distinguishes this company from its peers is a management team with the foresight to seize opportunities through an aggressive expansion programme. Today, the Group and its associate command a significant 10-15% market share in the highly-fragmented steel industry, which attests to the high quality and competitive prices of its products. Multi-prong growth strategies to meet sustained growth in demand has adopted an ambitious expansion plan to ride on the growing demand for galvanised steel, which is underpinned by growing consumption in downstream industries such as construction, automobile and home appliances manufacturing. Increasing acceptance by overseas customers also bolsters demand for FerroChina's products. Production capacity and revenue are forecast to grow at a CAGR of 42% and 37% respectively in 2006-09. Earnings are expected to grow at a CAGR of 50% in 2006-09. . FerroChinaExtracting greater value from value chain. (M&A), FerroChina aims to expand its capacity and geographical coverage to achieve greater economies of scale, thereby becoming the biggest galvanised steel player in China. Upstream expansion into cold roll production will give access to feedstock for galvanised steel production and allow FerroChina to extract greater value from the galvanised steel supply chain. Through mergers and acquisitionsDeep discount to peers. 12.3x. Given FerroChina's higher growth rate and ROE, such a deep discount is not justified. We assign a 2008 PE of 8x and a target price of S$2.35 to compensate for FerroChina's aggressive expansion plan, leveraged balance sheet and relatively short operating history. This is also supported by the our DCF valuation of S$2.41(WACC: 13% and terminal growth: 1.5%). the progress of its capacity expansion. Initiate coverage
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avrilsim
Member |
08-May-2007 16:17
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Very good. Trying to stay cool here and not look at the counter. |
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ed88ks
Senior |
08-May-2007 15:33
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With the consolidation wave in the China steel sector, FerroChina is looking for acquisitions to raise its galvanising capacity to 5m tonnes over the next three to five years. The enlarged capacity would not only strengthen FerroChina?s leading position in China but also propel FerroChina to become one of the biggest galvanising steel manufacturers in the world. Bigger entity deserves higher valuation. market cap would increase from S$600m to more than S$1.2b. The enlarged entity is bigger than that of its closest Taiwanese peers Yieh Phui and Sheng Yu. At S$2.05, FerroChina?s current valuation is 6.4x 2008 PE vs 11-12x for its peers. The discount is too steep even taking into account FerroChina?s shorter operating history and higher gearing. Hence, we lift our valuation from 8x to 9x 2008 PE. Accordingly, we raise our 12-month target price to S$2.90 based on the higher EPS for 2008 and higher valuation of 9x 2008 PE. Reiterate BUY. Following the acquisition, FerroChina?sRisks to our target price China steel sector including demand factors, fluctuating raw material prices, execution
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avrilsim
Member |
08-May-2007 15:32
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And why is it moving downwards today? |
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andyliu
Member |
08-May-2007 15:18
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Any advise why it isn't moving today? |
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lpkoh5
Senior |
08-May-2007 15:02
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Still a good buy for anyone interested in this powerstock....do get it before it cheong above $2.20 onwards ![]() |
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Livermore
Master |
07-May-2007 20:29
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It is time to put on a jacket as the weather gets colder and it continues its journey up the high mountains from the Great Wall of China. Slowly but surely it will get to the top of the mountain. FerrooooooooooooooooooooooooCHINA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
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