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JurTech

nickyng
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26-Mar-2007 11:35

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wow...price shootup to 78.5cts now !! SHORTING signals? hee...anyway further craps research by BNP:

Motorola?s profit warning
Motorola last night warned that it now expects to incur a loss in the
March quarter and substantially lower sales and net profit for the full
year. 1Q07 sales are expected to come in between USD9.2b to
USD9.3b, much lower than previous guidance of USD10.4b to
USD10.6b. This implies a sales decline of 21.2-22.0% q-q, which is
much worse than normal seasonal decline of 10-15%. Motorola also
expects to incur a loss of USD0.07-0.09 per share (including some
charges) in the March quarter. Motorola added that it expects a gradual
recovery only in the second half of this year. Motorola?s troubles are
mainly due to its handset division, where it suffers from lower unit
volumes, a difficult pricing environment and a limited 3G product
portfolio. Motorola is also seeing much steeper-than-expected price
reductions from its competitors in emerging markets.
Negative impact for Jurong Technologies
As mentioned in our downgrade note last month, we were disappointed
with the steep drop in 4Q06 gross margins despite healthy volumes.
Motorola?s latest profit warning suggests that the worst in terms of
pricing pressure may be yet to come. Our conversation with
management suggests that unit volumes for handset PCBA may decline
some 20-25% in 1Q07, in line with Motorola?s revised guidance. Despite
its battery pack business still showing relative strength, we expect JTL to
post a second consecutive quarter of year-on-year net profit decline in
1Q07 from SGD16.5m in 1Q06. With no new killer products from
Motorola in the near term, we believe 2Q07 will remain weak with any
recovery to come only in 2H07. While JTL has lined up several new
customers for this year, we note that traction has been slow so far and
do not expect any significant contribution this year.
Maintain HOLD with a revised target price of SGD0.95
We have reduced our 2007-09 net profit estimates by 4.2-8.0% mainly to
factor in lower gross margins given Motorola?s emphasis on cost
reduction throughout its supply chain. As such, we have reduced our
target price to SGD0.95 based on 6.5x 2007 P/E (from 7x 2007 P/E).
The reduction in our valuation rating is to factor in the worsening
outlook. HOLD maintained.

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nickyng
Supreme

26-Mar-2007 09:59

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err....hee...i dont control ur fate hor...it's those BBs leh...if trading band is wider i will probably short...hee...else i'll leave it alone :P

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jackjames
Elite

26-Mar-2007 09:55

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oh please, nickyng, please don't short me.. have mercy on me, please please... can? ha ha ha....

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nickyng
Supreme

26-Mar-2007 09:31

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ok long craps cut short....who is SHORTING This bugger today? hee....
looks like limited trading band siah.... :D

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jackjames
Elite

25-Mar-2007 00:41

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oh yeah, if u are malaysian, u should buy those Public bank mutual funds, my parents bought only a year ago, and now is sitting earning >60%, Malaysia and Singapore funds are doing great since last year too, China funds as well... For me, I just want to have variety of investments, funds, stocks, insurance... that's the way I handle my money~

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jackjames
Elite

25-Mar-2007 00:38

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l_tan888, they are experts who helps u to trade days and nights mah... give them a bit "paid" la.. anyway, not sure which trust you buy.. for mine, Aviva Lion Capitol, within 1st year u sell is 5% charge, then, 4% 2nd year, and on, now I am in 3rd years, and 3% charges is nothing .. I can give to them happily as I see the gain is almost 3 digits (>100% gain)... maybe I buy at the right time.. well, India is doing strong, no doubts.. so, I have no time to monitor India stocks, therefore, buying India funds, as simple as that...

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billywows
Elite

24-Mar-2007 22:31

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Looks like only Motorola's future outlook will the the only key to it's performance. BBs got out real fast last 2 days. Now, cheap can indeed be really cheaper!

http://www.remisiers.org/research//Jurong%20Technologies-220307bnp.pdf

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l_tan888
Senior

24-Mar-2007 02:37

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jackjames,

No more unit trusts ever again for me. Why give your money to someone to gamble for you and if he looses, he doesn't even say a "sorry" to you, yet you still have to pay for his salary? Stupid right?

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maxsyn
Veteran

23-Mar-2007 23:06

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trade on warrants may be an alternative to recoup losses compare to shorting. Recommend Capland and CityDev call warrants. can also consider Index warrant

My view is the risk for shorting a counter is very high during bull run

Must cover position before market close even if the price is very unfavourable.

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jackjames
Elite

23-Mar-2007 20:31

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l_tan888, you should buy India funds, yeah!!!! Indian, ruan de bu nen na RULES!! ha ha ....

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iPunter
Supreme

23-Mar-2007 19:46

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Actually, TA's sole usefulness perhaps lie in its function as a decision-making tool, and nothing more.

This is because technical analysis is at best a tool to help us to discern probabilty in an outcome but not a certainty.

This being the case, no matter what tool we use, it still finally falls back on us as the decision-makers to act in a responsible manner, even though the money we use to bet are our own.

The only certainty is the nature of the stock market ( note there's a distinction between "stock market" and "companies") ie. the uncertainty of the stock market.

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l_tan888
Senior

23-Mar-2007 18:47

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Hi colorado,

My heart goes out to you. I had a similar setback in 1998/9 when I lost over $130k in the Templeton Korean Fund (unit trust). Hope your loss is not too great an amount.

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colorado
Member

23-Mar-2007 18:41

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victorf, now I also burnt bad bad and burnt black black. Not only didn't make money, but lost 33%. Now I must be disciplined to follow my stop-loss. Got this "cha dar" scar (statement) to remind me of my folly. The thing that is hard to stomach is, just went for TA class not too long ago and I threw all those rules out of the window. ... sigh....

Well, all is not lost, will study the charts and see if there is any opportunity to buy in to recoup losses.

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nickyng
Supreme

23-Mar-2007 17:29

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btw..wat's the declared divident for this counter? 2 or 3cts ?? hee..

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victorf
Master

23-Mar-2007 17:11

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as expected, jurong tech touched $0.74 as support and some contrarian buying come in...whether it will remain rangebound within $0.74-$0.84 will be known in the next few days when volume decreases

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victorf
Member

Posted: 22-Mar-2007 13:29

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Colorado, the lack of disclipine is the hardest to follow even for experienced traders (hence i am not suprised at your problem). You should stick to your own pattern of trading and seek to perfect it. You have a few options:


1. SELL ALL (look for other better stocks in the short term to enter or keep the money and wait till KRD for JurTech before you buy this stock again)


2. SELL HALF (take some loss and wait to see whether the strong support at wave $0.74-$0.84 is broken). If it rangebound within the $0.74-$0.84 for the next few months, means it may have bottomed with some people contrarian bottom fishing, and wait for recovery. Else if $0.74 is broken below, sell another half and wait till $0.74 is broken above before you buy back the other half.


3. Do not sell and HOPE, HOPE, HOPE.(something like buying 4D and wait for strike, 1 in 10000 of it being taken over, and it is one of the common reason 9999 in 10000 for people to suicide, though 1 in 10000 people may have luck to survive the suicide at the end)


If i were you, i will take either the 1st or 2nd option depending on your power to hold and investor timespan (good thing is technology always have its cycle).Good luck.

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iPunter
Supreme

23-Mar-2007 16:46

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Stock shorting (ie. selling instead of buying) is normal and profitable and I believe downtrends are caused by Big Boys (big funds) shorting in stages.

But in bull market (while the primary trend is still alive), it is a dangerous thing to just short a stock just because one considers it 'high' or 'high enough'.

In fact, picking the right stock to short is more difficult than picking the right stock to buy. But if one has shorted the right stock/s, one gains not only $$$ but also experience (excitement) in shorting.

As a general safety rule, shorts must be must be more nimble in exiting than longs, since those who buy can still hold 'long-long'.

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nickyng
Supreme

23-Mar-2007 16:42

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sure or not no support?? look at those hungry ghosts that are buying up now?? haha....they might hv the lauff from those that dump earlier ? hee... :D

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Henry$$$
Senior

23-Mar-2007 16:28

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Does Chip Lian Investment hold its counter?

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jackjames
Elite

23-Mar-2007 16:15

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as expected, there is no support point right now for jurongtech, sad things... go in at 0.30 cents ba.... heee...

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nickyng
Supreme

23-Mar-2007 15:35

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sohguan: sound like abit of insulting to me siah..but tt's ok :) if i do make it big i will remember a guy like that "spur" me on :D

i think JurTech next wk might cont'd to slide...perhaps wait till next wk to load...timebeing...cont'd to SHORT when possible :DD

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